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forced displacement
Trump’s Incompetent War
Why did the US attack Iran? How long will the war last? What will the implications be? Don't ask President Donald Trump!
Mar 09, 2026
Minimally competent leaders would have considered at least five obvious questions before launching the nation into war. President Donald Trump considered none of them.
No. 1: What’s the Objective?
It’s not surprising that more than half of all Americans oppose Trump’s War. From the outset, his administration has offered numerous and contradictory justifications for it.
February 28:
Trump cited 47 years of grievances, a desire to destroy Iran’s missiles, and a message that the Iranian people should “seize the moment” because now was their chance to “be brave, be bold, be heroic, and take back your country.”
But he also said that the attack was a campaign to “eliminate the imminent nuclear threat,” although Trump had boasted in June that the United States had already accomplished that goal.
The next day, Pentagon officials told congressional staff members that no intelligence supported the notion that Iran was planning to attack the US first.
The same day, Trump told the Washington Post, “All I want is freedom for the people.”
United Nations Ambassador Mike Walz claimed to the UN Security Council that the US was invoking the right of self-defense in response to Iran’s imminent threat.
But the next day, Pentagon officials told congressional staff members that no intelligence supported the notion that Iran was planning to attack the US first.
March 2:
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told the press that the objective was retaliation for decades of Iranian behavior, destruction of their missiles, and providing an opportunity for Iranians to “take advantage of this incredible opportunity.”
But only hours later, Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered a new justification for the war: Israel was going to attack Iran and, if that happened, Iran would then attack US interests in the region. He made it sound as if Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had maneuvered Trump into a corner.
The next day, Trump contradicted Rubio, saying: “It was my opinion that they [Iran] were going to attack first. They were going to attack if we didn’t do it.” Rebutting any impression that Netanyahu had manipulated him, Trump added, “If anything, I might have forced Israel’s hand.”
Rubio complained that his earlier remarks had been taken out of context and the operation “had to happen anyway.”
March 6:
Trump posted on social media that only “unconditional surrender” would end the war.
No. 2: How Long Will It Last?
March 1: Trump told the New York Times that the operation could take “four to five weeks.” He didn’t mention the Pentagon’s concerns that the war could further deplete reserves that military strategists have said are critical for scenarios such as a conflict over Taiwan or Russian incursions into Europe.
March 2: Trump said that the war could go on longer than four to five weeks.
March 4: Hegseth said that the Iran war is “far from over” and has “only just begun.”
March 6: Trump told the New York Post that he hadn’t ruled out putting “boots on the ground, if necessary.”
No. 3: Who Will Lead Iran After US Strikes Kill Its Supreme Leader?
March 1: Trump told the New York Times that he had “three very good choices” for who could lead Iran.
March 3: Trump admitted: “Most of the people we had in mind are dead… Now we have another group. They may be dead also, based on reports. So I guess you have a third wave coming. Pretty soon we’re not going to know anybody.” Asked about the worst-case scenario for the war, Trump said, “I guess the worst case would be we do this and somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person.”
More than a dozen Mideast countries are now embroiled in Trump’s war, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
March 5: Trump told Axios, “I have to be involved in the appointment [of Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s successor], like with Delcy in Venezuela"—referring to Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who remained in charge of President Nicolás Maduro’s corrupt and repressive regime after the US abducted him. Trump said that Khamenei’s son—rumored to be a leading candidate as successor—is “unacceptable to me” and “a light weight.”
The same day, he told NBC News, “We have some people who I think would do a good job.”
March 7: The Washington Post reported that a classified National Intelligence Committee study issued prior to the war found that even if the US launched a large-scale assault on Iran, it likely would not oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment.
March 9: Iran chose Khamenei’s son, a cleric expected to continue his father’s hard-line policies, as the country’s Supreme Leader.
No. 4: How Would a US-Iran War Affect the Mideast?
Before US bombs began to fall, thousands of American citizens were in the war zone. But ahead of the strikes, the State Department didn’t issue official alerts advising Americans that the risk of travel in the region had increased.
Yael Lempert, who helped organize the evacuation of Americans in Libya in 2011 observed, “It is stunning there were no orders for authorized departure for nonessential US government employees and family members in almost all the affected diplomatic missions in the region—nor public recommendations to American citizens to depart—until days into the war.”
After attacks and counterattacks closed airspace and airports throughout the region, on Wednesday, March 4—four days into the war—the State Department finally began evacuations by charter flight. The following day, the New York Times reported:
Until midweek, the State Department had mainly provided stranded travelers with basic information about security conditions and commercial travel options via a telephone hotline and text messages. Before Wednesday, desperate people calling the hotline got an automated message that said the US government could not help get them out of the region.
No. 5: Could the War Lead to Humanitarian, Economic, or Geopolitical Crises?
Only a week into the war, the UN humanitarian chief warned, “This is a moment of grave, grave peril.”
Iran is a country of 90 million people. US-Israel bombing has already displaced more than 100,000 of them.
Israel’s companion attack on Lebanon has displaced more than 300,000 residents.
Asked to rate his Iran war performance on a scale of one to 10, Trump gave himself a “15.”
More than a dozen Mideast countries are now embroiled in Trump’s war, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
The ripple effects span the globe as oil prices spike and Iran disrupts tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz—through which one-fifth of the world’s oil flows. During his state of the union message, Trump boasted that the price of gasoline was down to $2,00 per gallon in some states. Last week, the national average price in the US was $3.41 per gallon.
Ominously, on March 6 the Washington Post reported that Russia is providing intelligence assistance to the Iranian military attacking US targets. But Hegseth is “not concerned about that.”
Asked to rate his Iran war performance on a scale of one to 10, Trump gave himself a “15.”
Introspection rarely accompanies incompetence.
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Israel Illegally Using White Phosphorus Against Civilians in Lebanon: Human Rights Watch
"The incendiary effects of white phosphorous can cause death or cruel injuries that result in lifelong suffering.”
Mar 09, 2026
Israel is illegally using white phosphorous in civilian areas amid its new onslaught in Lebanon, putting residents at risk of death or life-altering injury, according to a report released Monday by Human Rights Watch.
The human rights group said it has verified and geolocated seven photos showing airburst white phosphorus munitions being deployed on March 3 over homes in the southern Lebanese town of Yohmor.
Images also showed civil defense workers responding to fires in at least two homes and one car in that area.
White phosphorus, a chemical substance that ignites when exposed to oxygen, is considered unlawfully indiscriminate under international law when deployed in civilian areas, as it can result in homes, agricultural areas, and other civilian infrastructure catching on fire.
“The Israeli military’s unlawful use of white phosphorus over residential areas is extremely alarming and will have dire consequences for civilians,” said Ramzi Kaiss, a Lebanon researcher at Human Rights Watch. “The incendiary effects of white phosphorous can cause death or cruel injuries that result in lifelong suffering.”
Human Rights Watch said it has not verified whether anyone was in the area at the time the white phosphorus was deployed or whether it resulted in any injuries.
It is not the first time Israel has been documented deploying white phosphorus in Lebanon. In June 2024, Human Rights Watch verified at least 17 instances of the chemical substance being deployed across south Lebanon since October 2023.
As of May 28, 2024, Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health reported that at least 173 people had suffered injuries from white phosphorus since October 2023—including respiratory issues like asphyxiation.
“Israel should immediately halt this practice and states providing Israel with weapons, including white phosphorus munitions, should immediately suspend military assistance and arms sales and push Israel to stop firing such munitions in residential areas,” Kaiss said.
Yohmor was one of more than 100 villages where Israel ordered civilians to "immediately" evacuate last week—orders that have resulted in the mass displacement of more than 300,000 people from their homes, according to a Friday report from the Norwegian Refugee Council.
On March 3, residents of Yohmor and other villages given evacuation orders were told by Avichay Adraee, Israel’s Arabic military spokesperson, that they “should immediately evacuate [their homes] and move away from the villages to a distance of at least 1,000 meters outside the village to open land.”
Due to the "sweeping nature" of its orders, Human Rights Watch has warned that "their purpose is not to protect civilians, especially in the context of recent large-scale displacement of civilians in Lebanon."
The report notes that between September and November 2024, more than 1.2 million people were displaced in Lebanon as a result of attacks across the country. Many, who were able to return home following a ceasefire in November 2024, have been displaced once more.
Since Israel and the United States launched a war against Iran last week, resulting in retaliation from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, Israel has pushed further into Lebanon, carrying out attacks on several villages across southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut.
"Contrary to [Israel's] claims, the strikes are not aimed at military personnel or installations, but rather at residential homes, medical responders, healthcare infrastructure, as well as women and children," said Lebanese Health Minister Rakan Nasreddine on Sunday.
Since March 2, he said that Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon have killed 394 people, including 83 children and 42 women, while wounding 1,130 people, including 254 children and 274 women.
"The number is still increasing," he added.
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Israel Gives 'Mass Expulsion Order' to Civilians as It Invades Southern Lebanon
As it pushes further into Lebanon, Israel ordered around 200,000 people living south of the Litani River to "immediately" flee.
Mar 04, 2026
Israel ordered residents in southern Lebanon to "immediately" leave their homes as it advanced troops further into the country on Wednesday, prompting "serious concern" from the United Nations as its assault on the country ramps up.
"Residents of southern Lebanon—you must move immediately to areas north of the Litani River," Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee posted in Arabic on X as Israel escalated a campaign of airstrikes and moved troops into several villages.
The region south of the Litani River spans hundreds of square kilometers and makes up about 9% of Lebanon's total territory, according to the Associated Press.
Around 200,000 people live in the area south of the river, which has served as the beginning of a buffer zone between Israel and Hezbollah since Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2006 as part of United Nations Resolution 1701.
On Monday, Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz said that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "have approved for the military to advance and seize additional controlling areas in Lebanon and to defend the border settlements from there."
According to Nora Ingdal, Save the Children’s Country Director for Lebanon, evacuation orders given by Israel as it entered villages in the past three days have created a situation of "pure chaos" for civilians forced to flee their homes.
Lebanon's Ministry of Social Affairs reported that about 58,000 people, including an estimated 16,000 children, had already been displaced as of Tuesday.
"Our team is hearing cases of children across Lebanon sleeping in cars, on cold pavements, and in partially damaged classrooms with cracks in the walls, while parents are sitting on the side of the streets crying, exhausted from little sleep after being unable to get into proper shelters with their children," Ingdal said.
Sana Kawtharani, a community health educator for Doctors Without Borders, described the impossible choice that over 12,000 people had to make after being ordered to leave the town of Sarafand on Tuesday, after having sought shelter there earlier.
"We know how hard it is to leave our home, our people, our villages, and our memories," Kawtharani said. "Around us in the neighborhood, some were forced to leave because they have children and elderly who are terrified by the sound of Israeli shelling."
"They carried what they could and left in cars, not knowing where they were going," she said. "There are children, the elderly, and the sick stuck on the road in very harsh conditions."
Israeli attacks in Lebanon since 2023 have killed more than 4,000 people and injured more than 16,000, according to the Lebanese health ministry, which says most of the victims have been civilians. More than 370 have been killed since a ceasefire in November 2024.
"This war began 15 months ago, and until today, it hasn't stopped," Kawtharani said. "Every day there is shelling, despite everything we hear about a ceasefire, but this has not been implemented on the ground."
Israel’s evacuation order for all of southern Lebanon came following an intensification of airstrikes overnight around Beirut the previous evening, which killed at least 12 people according to state media.
On Tuesday, Israel also reportedly carried out another "double-tap" strike in the Tyre district of southern Lebanon, killing three paramedics with the World Health Organization (WHO) and injuring six more who were in the process of helping others wounded in a previous strike.
Though Lebanon was already being struck by Israel on a near-daily basis despite the 2024 ceasefire, hostilities exploded over the weekend following Israel and the United States' attack on Iran, sparking retaliatory strikes on Israel from the Iranian-aligned militia Hezbollah.
According to Middle East Eye, Israel had authorized a barrage of strikes on Lebanon even before the first retaliatory rockets and drones were fired by Hezbollah following the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday.
Israel has not reported any deaths from Hezbollah's attacks, though two soldiers sustained moderate injuries on Wednesday from anti-tank fire in southern Lebanon.
According to Lebanese authorities, Israeli strikes on dozens of sites across the country have killed at least 72 people and wounded 437 as of Wednesday.
Lebanese media reported on Wednesday that Israeli troops have pushed into the town of Khiam, which is roughly six kilometers from Israel’s border, marking their furthest advance into the country since the war broke out in 2024.
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), the peacekeeping force that has operated in southern Lebanon for nearly 50 years, said on Wednesday that it had “serious concern” about Israel’s order “demanding evacuation of the civilian population from UNIFIL’s area of operations to north of the Litani River.”
UNIFIL said on Wednesday that “peacekeepers observed today several [Israel Defense Forces] movements and military activities, including near El Khiam, Beit Lif, Yaroun, Houla, Kfar Kila, Kherbeh, and Kfar Shouba. All of these are happening while Israeli airstrikes and other air activities continue.”
It said these actions "not only violate Resolution 1701, but also Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity."
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