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'Horrific': Israeli Escalation Would Kill Another 85,000 Gazans in 6 Months, Study Shows
"Even in the best-case cease-fire scenario, thousands of excess deaths would continue to occur," said the authors of a new report.
Feb 22, 2024
In an effort to put "at the front of people's minds and on the desks of decision-makers" the human cost of the U.S.-backed Israeli onslaught in Gaza, scientists on Wednesday said an escalation in the bombardment was projected to kill 85,000 Palestinians in the next six months—which would bring the total death toll to more than 114,000 people, or about 5% of Gaza's population, in less than a year.
Researchers at Johns Hopkins University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine completed modeling for a report titled Crisis in Gaza: Scenario-Based Health Impact Projections, estimating the projected "excess deaths"—those above what would be been expected before the war—based on the health data available in Gaza before Israel began its air and ground attacks in October and the data that's been collected in more than four months of fighting.
The potential deaths of 85,000 additional people in the next six months represents the worst of three possible scenarios modeled by the researchers.
If bombing, shelling, and other ground attacks continue at their current pace, the scientists projected the killings of 58,260 Palestinians over the next six months.
The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, considers deaths from traumatic injuries as well as infectious diseases, maternal and neonatal health crises, and diseases for which patients have lost access to treatment, such as kidney disease or cancer. With 1 in 4 households in Gaza now facing "catastrophic" levels of hunger, according to the Integrated Food Security and Nutrition Phase Classification, "nutritional status" was named as a risk factor in the study, but the researchers did not include starvation as a potential cause of excess deaths.
In the case of an outbreak of an infectious disease such as cholera—which public health experts have warned could happen due to Israel's near-total blockade on humanitarian aid and a lack of potable water—66,720 people could die if the current level of violence continues.
"Even in the best-case cease-fire scenario, thousands of excess deaths would continue to occur, mainly due to the time it would take to improve water, sanitation, and shelter conditions, reduce malnutrition, and restore functioning healthcare services in Gaza," the study reads.
If an immediate cease-fire were established, the researchers projected at least 6,500 additional deaths, as people would be expected to die of previous injuries or be killed by unexploded ordnance. The deaths of babies and women would also still be expected during and soon after childbirth, as complex care has become unavailable for many due to the collapse of the healthcare system, and undernourished children could die because of their reduced ability to fight off infections like pneumonia.
If a cease-fire began but an outbreak of a disease such as cholera, polio, or meningitis occurred, the scientists projected 11,580 people would die in Gaza between now and August.
Negotiations for a potential truce were underway on Thursday in Israel, where a U.S. envoy arrived as Israeli forces continued to bomb Rafah. About 1.5 million people are currently in the city in southern Gaza, with most having fled Israeli attacks on other cities.
"The decisions that are going to be taken over the next few days and weeks matter hugely in terms of the evolution of the death toll in Gaza," Francesco Checchi, professor of epidemiology and international health at LSHTM, toldThe New York Times Wednesday.
Despite the U.S. and Israeli governments' persistent claims that the Israel Defense Forces are seeking to eradicate Hamas in retaliation for an attack on southern Israel that it led in October, the United Nations has estimated that about 40% of the people killed in Gaza have been children. This trend would continue, according to the researchers, who projected that 42% of the Palestinians killed in the next six months would be under the age of 19.
Journalist Séamus Malekafzali called the scientists' projections "nothing short of horrific."
Checchi told the Times that the researchers wanted to put the projections "at the front of people's minds and on the desks of decision-makers, so that it can be said afterward that when these decisions were taken, there was some available evidence on how this would play out in terms of lives."
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World Food Program Economist Warns 'Worst Is Yet to Come' in Gaza
The U.N. organization's chief economist spoke with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders about the "unprecedented" crisis conditions in Gaza as Israel continues to wage war on the besieged enclave.
Jan 23, 2024
Nearly four months into Israel's blockade and bombardment that has killed about 25,500 people in the Gaza Strip, the World Food Program's chief economist warned Tuesday that the "worst is yet to come" in the besieged Palestinian enclave.
That warning from the WFP's Arif Husain came in a livestreamed conversation with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
"In my opinion, this crisis is unprecedented," Husain said. "Three things... make this unprecedented. One is the scale."
The vast majority of Gaza's 2.3 million residents are facing crisis-level hunger, as the WFP and other United Nations organizations have highlighted throughout the war, which Israel launched on October 7 in retaliation for a Hamas-led attack.
"The second part is severity," Husain explained, with "half a million people literally starving." He also noted that much of the civilian infrastructure has been destroyed, leaving most people in Gaza displaced and with limited access to basic necessities.
"The third part of this is the speed at which it has happened," the economist added. "The other thing which is extremely troubling in this crisis and what makes it unprecedented is what is going to come next."
Husain stressed that "we are one step away from a disease outbreak," pointing to overcrowded shelters, showers, and toilets as well as people with weakened immune systems due to limited food, water, and medicine.
Children in Gaza are already dying of starvation. As Common Dreamsreported earlier Tuesday, one 46-year-old parent of five told the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor that their children "have been starving for more than a month, and we do not have any flour."
"We eat a small amount of rice each day, so when I learned that flour aid was available, I walked for 13 kilometers before the Israeli army opened their machine gun fire," said the parent, who requested anonymity for safety reasons. "We were hit by shells fired, resulting in several casualties. I managed to survive, without receiving any flour."
U.S. President Joe Biden has faced intense scrutiny for the United States' support of Israel as it wages war on Gaza. While Biden has called out Israel's "indiscriminate bombing" of the enclave, he has also requested a $14.3 billion package on top of the $3.8 billion that Israel gets in annual U.S. military aid and bypassed Congress to arm Israeli troops.
While Sanders—who is Jewish but not religious and briefly lived in Israel decades ago—has been criticized by progressives for not demanding a cease-fire in Gaza, he has spoken out against right-wing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. support for the devastating war.
In response to the Israeli prime minister's recent rejection of a two-state solution, Sanders declared Saturday that "despite the illegal and inhumane actions of Netanyahu's government, President Biden has thus far offered unconditional support to Israel. That must change. President Biden must now loudly and clearly say NO to the policies of Netanyahu's right-wing extremist government."
"And Congress must act. There must be no more U.S. military aid to Israel to continue Netanyahu's war," the senator added. "Humanitarian aid must be immediately allowed to reach those in need. A safe release of all remaining hostages must be negotiated. Israel must work towards a lasting peace that allows two states for two peoples. If Netanyahu continues down the path of military domination, he must do so alone. The United States cannot be complicit."
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Israeli Assault Causing Disease, Hunger to Rapidly Spread Across Gaza
"I've been to pretty much any conflict," the World Food Program's chief economist said. "And I have never seen anything like this, both in terms of its scale, its magnitude, but also at the pace that this has unfolded."
Jan 02, 2024
With roughly 90% of Gaza residents displaced and seeking safety from Israel's bombardment and ground attacks, crowding into shelters in cities including the already densely populated Rafah, humanitarian agencies warned Tuesday that the spread of disease and the risk of starvation are showing no signs of slowing down in the blockaded enclave.
A week after the World Food Program (WFP) warned that about "half of Gaza's population is starving," the United Nations organization's chief economist said Tuesday that less than three months into Israel's relentless assault, the territory appears to meet at least one of the criteria for famine.
About 20% of the population faces an "extreme lack of food," Arif Husain toldThe New York Times.
"I've been to pretty much any conflict, whether Yemen, whether it was South Sudan, northeast Nigeria, Ethiopia, you name it," Husain told the newspaper. "And I have never seen anything like this, both in terms of its scale, its magnitude, but also at the pace that this has unfolded."
Skipping meals, particularly among adults caring for children, has become "the norm" in Gaza, the WFP said on social media.
Experts on Gaza's humanitarian crises—which gripped the enclave even before Israel began bombing Gaza in retaliation for Hamas' attack in October—are among those suffering, the Times reported, with International Crisis Group analyst Azmi Keshawi telling the newspaper that he is one of thousands of displaced people who has to go searching daily for sustenance to feed his family.
"Our daily nightmare is to go hunt for food," Keshawi, who is sheltering with his family in a tent on a street in Rafah, told the Times. "You cannot find flour. You cannot find yeast to make bread. You cannot find any kind of food—tomatoes, onions, cucumbers, eggplant, lemon, orange juice."
Human Rights Watch said last month that Israel is using starvation as a method of warfare—a war crime under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.
The lack of nourishment has put residents at heightened health and safety risks as many are sleeping out in the open without adequate clothing or blankets to keep out the elements, as colder winter weather arrives.
Along with the growing hunger crisis, the United Nations has been monitoring the spread of communicable diseases and healthcare workers' inability to adequately care for people due to Israel's blockade and refusal to allow in adequate aid.
The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that there have been 179,000 cases of acute respiratory infections; 136,400 cases of diarrhea—the second-leading cause of death among young children worldwide—in children under age five; and 55,400 cases of scabies since mid-October.
The organization said Gaza is at "imminent risk" of more disease outbreaks.
The severe overcrowding of cities and shelters, where displaced people have the use of one toilet for every 700 people on average, has contributed to the rapid spread of illnesses.
"Gazans can die very easily now because of the diseases spreading," Tamara Alrifai, director of external relations at the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), told Channel 4 News in the United Kingdom on Tuesday. "Originally a home for around 280,000 people, over the last few weeks, about a million additional people came into Rafah and that explains that visual element of extremely crowded shelters but also extremely crowded spaces around the UNRWA shelters."
Dr. Guillemette Thomas, a medical coordinator for Doctors Without Borders, told the Times that Israel is now allowing 120 aid trucks at most into Gaza each day. For weeks no shipments were allowed in, and desperately needed fuel did not reach Gaza until late November. Before the bombardment and blockade, many Gazans relied on aid that was brought in by 500 trucks per day.
Despite Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's proclamation on October 9 that he was ordering a "complete siege on the Gaza Strip" with "no electricity, no food, no fuel" allowed in for its residents, who he referred to as "human animals," Israel continues to claim that it is not blocking aid or targeting civilians. The government has claimed Hamas is diverting aid deliveries, an accusation that UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini called "baseless."
At least 22,185 people have been killed and at least 57,000 have been injured in Gaza since Israel began its bombardment, with an additional 7,000 people reported missing or presumed to be buried under rubble.
Last week, the UNRWA posted a video on social media showing people desperately trying to reach an aid convoy in Gaza City.
"Gaza is just weeks away from famine," said the agency. "People are desperate and hungry. To prevent famine, more, much more food and other basics must be allowed in."
The group also reiterated its call for a humanitarian cease-fire to allow aid deliveries and protect civilians.
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