There Is a Way Out of This Mess, Joe and Kamala. Please Take It.

The headlines emanating from Palestine-Israel, though ominous, should have been expected. The problem, of course, is that the Israeli government appears intent on making a desperately bad situation worse, and the administration of US President Joe Biden is acting as if doing what it’s been doing for the past three-and-a-half years is something other than pouring petrol on a raging fire.

The Israeli government continues to behave as if there are no consequences to its brutal behaviour. There is no let-up to its assault on Gaza as it routinely orders mass evacuations that force entire families to once again be uprooted. Bombings throughout Gaza have resulted in acute shortages of food, medicine and water. There are reports of children dying of malnutrition and now polio.

What the Israeli leadership cannot understand is that the anger and pain among the Palestinian people only create more resistance and new recruits for Hamas. For the past several months, the Israeli army has been confronting Hamas and other fighters in areas of Gaza’s northern and central regions that it claimed had been “cleared”. But as the US learnt in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, as long as the alien invader remains, no area is ever “cleared.”

Meanwhile, West Bank appears ready to explode. For several years now, the Israeli army and border police have been conducting deadly raids into Palestinian communities. Since the war in Gaza began, these have accelerated and become more lethal, accompanied by arial bombings.

To change this dynamic, the US must reverse course – and do so dramatically.

This isn’t all. Palestinians have long been plagued by extremist settler violence – burning, looting and even using deadly force. These rampages have been tolerated and often encouraged by Israeli military forces. This phenomenon has also grown in frequency and deadly intent.

To make matters worse, members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition have engaged in provocations, in word and deed, that have egged on the extremist settlers, generating greater anger or fear among the captive Palestinian people. Illegal outposts have been legitimized, provided military protection, government services and weapons, and, for all intents and purposes, annexed to Israel proper. One minister has led extremists to invade Haram Al Sharif, declaring his intention to build a synagogue on the grounds of Al Aqsa Mosque. Another member of the governing coalition has said that the goal of the government should be to remove the bulk of the Palestinians from the West Bank, to make it more governable.

All of these combined appear to have been a boon to Hamas’s recruiting, with the group reportedly picking up new members not only in the occupied lands, but also among the Palestinian refugee population in Lebanon.

While this dance of death plays out, the Biden team acts clueless. It is exhausting itself trying to negotiate a ceasefire, which it must know by now that the Netanyahu government has no interest in accepting. No matter how the US tinkers with the terms to make them acceptable to the Israeli side (thereby making them unacceptable not only to Hamas, but to Egypt as well), Mr Netanyahu, afraid of losing his government, continues to either say “No” or commit some new outrage as a delaying tactic.

US redlines continue to be crossed and US law continues to be violated, but the Biden administration’s response is to send weapons and threaten those in the international community who call for accountability. The net effect is that Israel’s sense of impunity is reinforced. Palestinian anger, coupled with Hamas’s standing among an embittered population, continues to grow. And the US stands increasingly condemned in the eyes of the world as an enabler of Israeli actions.

What supposedly began as a retaliation against the October 7 attacks has now evolved into a full-fledged assault that is spawning more resistance with no end in sight. No one on any side should assume that any sort of victory can be won. Both Israeli and Palestinian societies have become more polarized. The well of bitterness that has been dug will take more than a generation to fill.

The forces that should be held accountable for the war are Hamas, for its horrific October attacks, and Israel, for its abominable response. But fault also lies squarely on the back of the US. For too long and for too many administrations, Washington has enabled Israel’s illegal actions. As a result, it has emboldened Israel’s extremists and killed off Israel’s peace forces. At the same time, it has rendered Palestinian moderates irrelevant, while empowering Palestinian extremists who are increasingly seen as the only way forward. And all this time, Israelis get rewarded, while Palestinians are punished. Palestinians are asked to make the hard choices, while little is asked of the Israelis – and when Israel refuses, there are no consequences.

To change this dynamic, the US must reverse course – and do so dramatically. A long-overdue cut-off of US arms to Israel and recognition of the Palestinian right to self-determination would provide exactly the shock to the system that is needed. It would force an internal debate in Israel, empowering those who want peace. It might also serve to send a message to the Palestinian people that their plight and rights are understood.

These actions, especially if followed up with determination and concrete steps, won’t end the conflict tomorrow, but they would surely put the region on a more productive path towards peace than the one it is on now.

Some will say that it is unlikely that Mr Biden could ever take such a step. But if he can muster the same resolve it took to step aside for Vice President Kamala Harris to run in November’s presidential election, he can find the courage to do this as well. It won’t undo the damage that has been done, but it would pave the way for his successor to move more easily towards a Palestinian-Israeli peace.