Did the Israelis strike Iran when it did because Michael Kurilla is still commander of U.S. Central Command and a “window” for a prospective joint operation with the U.S. might be closing?
Some are speculating that because Kurilla is expected to retire from the military this summer that the Israelis saw their chance. The Army general, 59, has been widely reported to be on one side of a split in the Pentagon over whether the U.S. should support and even be part of Israeli strikes against Iran’s nuclear program.
In April, Israel news outlet Ynet coined him as “The U.S. general Israel doesn’t want to strike Iran without.”
“Israeli defense analysts say the window for a successful attack on Iran’s nuclear program is rapidly closing,” wrote Alon Strimling on April 19. “That window could narrow dramatically once Kurilla steps down, as his successor’s stance remains unclear.”
Kurilla is retiring this summer after a nearly 40-year career that dates back to the first Persian Gulf War. Ynet noted that Kurilla “is seen as one of Israel’s staunchest allies in the American defense establishment,” and his relationship “runs deep” dating back to his time as a young officer in his 20s.
“He’s a hawk of hawks,” noted Curt Mills, executive director of the American Conservative. “(The Israelis) knew they were losing an ally soon. They knew the negotiations (with Iran) were ongoing. The Iranians had signaled that they were close to accepting a deal days before the strike. So all of these things were a factor.
"And then meanwhile, I think there's every piece of evidence that Kurilla would at least start the conflict and pop his cork on it before he leaves.”
Kurilla, according to the New York Times, had been open to Israeli strike plans earlier this spring, “that would have combined an Israeli commando raid on underground nuclear sites with a bombing campaign, an effort that the Israelis hoped would involve American aircraft.”
“Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command, and Michael Waltz, the national security adviser, both discussed how the United States could potentially support an Israeli attack, if Mr. Trump backed the plan.”
Sources who spoke to RS since Friday’s attacks on Iran suggested that Kurilla wasn’t just “open” to such plans, he was actively promoting them inside the DoD. That’s not a surprise, said Justin Logan, director of Foreign Policy and Defense Studies at the Cato Institute.
“He has been pushing for war with Iran and away from diplomacy since before Trump took office in ways that run over civilian officials,” Logan told RS. The CENCTOM commander reports directly to the Secretary of Defense.
Dan Caldwell, former adviser to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, told the Breaking Points podcast Monday that he didn’t think the timing of the strikes were a “coincidence.”
“I think it's been reported, and you know, based on my experience with him, that he takes a fundamentally different view of the importance of the Middle East than a lot of other people in the administration. And he also, I think, believes that a military campaign against Iran will not be as costly as others,” Caldwell said.
“So I think there are a lot of folks that want to see some type of military action occur before he retires as a result of that,” he added. "So he retires in the middle of July. And I don't think it's a coincidence you see a lot of pressure ramping up to do something prior to his retirement time.”
To understand the authority the CENTCOM commander wields is to understand that the combatant command oversees an AOR (Area of Responsibility) that spans 21 countries — including Israel now — across the Middle East, Central Asia, and parts of South Asia. It directs five "service component commands" of Army, Navy (including the Fifth Fleet), Air Force, Marines, Space Command, as well as a joint special operations command (SOCCENT).
Kurilla has pursued a highly elaborate system of military integration with Israel and partners in the region in what he has called a “strategy to deter Iranian aggression.” It has been referred to as a “security umbrella” or “Kurilla’s umbrella.”
Even as Iranian proxies in the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran itself were taking blows and losing influence after Oct. 7, 2023, Kurilla was telling Congress that it was important to that U.S. not be the “security guarantor” but the “security integrator” in the region because essentially Iran is still an existential threat to everyone.
