CAIR Swing State Data Shows Muslim Voters Hold Diverse Preferences, Still Up for Grabs in 2024

The Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR), the nation’s largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization, today released additional results from its August 25-27 presidential election survey of 1,155 American Muslim voters showing Muslim voter preferences varying somewhat based on sex, age, race, party affiliation and location, with Muslim voters favoring Dr. Jill Stein in the swing states of Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin while Vice President Kamala Harris leads among Muslim voters in Georgia and Pennsylvania and Donald Trump leads in Nevada.

Conducted in partnership with Molitical Consulting LLC, the additional survey results also show how Muslim voter preferences differ based on gender, race, party affiliation, age and likelihood of voting.

CLICK HERE: READ CAIR NEW SWING STATE ELECTION REPORT

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Key Survey Findings:

• Overall: CAIR’s initial August 25-27 survey revealed that 29.4% of American Muslims plan to vote for Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party, virtually tied with Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party, who follows closely with 29.1%. At the same time, Donald Trump of the Republican Party garners 11.2% of the vote, and Dr. Cornel West of the People’s Party receives 4.2%. Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party has less than 1% support, with 16.5% of respondents remaining undecided.
• Battleground States: Dr. Stein is leading Harris in Arizona (35%) Michigan (40%) and Wisconsin (44%), while Harris leads Stein in Georgia (43%) and Pennsylvania (37%). Trump’s highest support is observed in Nevada (27%), just ahead of Harris (26%).
• Gender: Kamala Harris leads among Muslim male voters with 29%, while Dr. Jill Stein holds a stronger position among Muslim women at 34%. Donald Trump has similar levels of support among men (14%) and women (10%). Additionally, a higher proportion of men (17%) are undecided compared to women (16%).
• Racial Demographics: Kamala Harris is supported by 55.3% of Black Muslim voters, 28% of Asian Muslims, and 25.6% of White, Arab, and Turkic Muslims. Dr. Jill Stein is supported by 32.7% of White, Arab, and Turkic Muslim voters, 25.7% of Asian Muslims, and 11.2% of Black Muslim voters. Donald Trump is supported by 12.8% of White, Arab, and Turkic Muslims, 12.6% of Asian Muslims, and 9.8% of Black Muslim voters.
• Party Affiliation: Harris slightly leads among Democrats (33%) and Independents (30%), while Dr. Stein also garners significant support from these groups (32% and 28% respectively). Donald Trump’s highest support comes from Republicans (48%).
• Likelihood of Voting: Harris attracts a higher proportion of high-likelihood voters (33%), whereas Dr. Stein has a significant share of moderate-likelihood voters (65%). Trump’s support is concentrated among high-likelihood voters (13%).
• Support for Third Parties: Overall, support for third-party candidates (Stein and West) comes from both Muslim Democrats and Republicans, indicating discontent with both parties’ platforms on the issues that Muslim Americans prioritize.

“These new survey findings make it clear that American Muslim voters have the potential to determine the outcomes in several key battleground states and that they are still up for grabs in the 2024 election,” said CAIR Government Affairs Director Robert S. McCaw. “Candidates running for office cannot afford to overlook the issues that matter most to Muslim Americans. Ignoring this community or taking their votes for granted could be a costly mistake, particularly in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, where elections are often won by narrow margins. It’s time for candidates at every level of government to invest more time and resources in understanding the concerns of Muslim voters.”

Methodology: Conducted in partnership with Molitical Consulting LLC, the survey was conducted through an SMS text message sent to a proprietary, randomized national list of 40,000 registered Muslim voters from all 50 states, Puerto Rico, and military members serving overseas. The survey was conducted from Sunday, August 25, to Tuesday, August 27, and received 1,478 responses, 1,155 of which were verified and matched to the national voter file. This follow-up report delves into the preferences and trends among Muslim voters following Harris’s entry onto the Democratic ticket. The findings demonstrate significant demographic splits and offer key insights into how Muslim voters are shaping up ahead of the November election.

Why Muslim Votes Matter: As the 2024 national general election approaches, America’s estimated 2.5 million Muslim voters are positioned to once again play a crucial role in shaping the political landscape. With their significant presence in key swing states, Muslim voters have the potential to influence the outcomes of not only the presidential race but also numerous congressional, state, and local elections. This report aims to provide a comprehensive overview of Muslim voters’ political inclinations and voting intentions in this pivotal election year.

Muslims.Vote: As the November election approaches, CAIR plans continue to provide updates on Muslim voter preferences and trends on Muslims.Vote, CAIR’s voter empowerment website.

NOTE: As a 501(c)3 nonprofit, CAIR does not endorse or oppose candidates for office, and makes no claims as to the favorability of one candidate being elected over another.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations is America’s largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization. Its mission is to enhance the understanding of Islam, protect civil rights, promote justice, and empower American Muslims.