For Immediate Release
Alan Barber, (202) 293-5380 x115
New Report Demonstrates That in Times of High Employment and Lost GDP, Deficits Not a Burden
Recession led to tremendous loss of output; Fed can buy and hold debt to spur recover.
WASHINGTON - While the official recession has ended, the U.S. economy is still
facing near double-digit unemployment and there are few signs of an
imminent recovery. The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR)
has created a Recession Waste Calculator to illustrate just how much output has been lost to the downturn. A separate report
from CEPR, points out that this loss is unnecessary and that there are
essentially pain-free policy routes to restore the economy to normal
levels of output.
The report, "Feel No Pain: Why a deficit In Times of High Unemployment is Not a Burden," demonstrates the need to address the current unemployment crisis even at the risk of carrying large deficits.
"Unfortunately, current policy debates are focused on the budget
deficit and national debt," said Dean Baker, author of the issue brief
and a co- director at CEPR. "However, in times of severe joblessness
and low consumption, deficit spending is the best means to spur job
The report details the implosion of the $8 trillion housing bubble and
an additional $6 trillion decline in stock wealth that led to a drop in
construction and consumption spending on the order of $1,200 billion.
The Recession Waste Calculator creatively puts into common terms the goods and services we have lost as a result.
The report notes that the drop in interest rates and the stimulus
package have been helpful in raising demand. Unfortunately, the
beneficial effect from these measures has not been large enough to
offset the loss of demand caused by the collapse of the housing bubble.
Restoring the economy to normal levels of output will require increased
government spending on services, investment in infrastructure or
research and development, and/or additional tax cuts to boost private
The paper emphasizes that this stimulus need not create any future
interest burden since the Federal Reserve can simply buy and hold the
additional debt rather than borrowing from the public.
Baker pointed out, "This has been done before, and the Fed has at its
disposal all of the tools necessary to dampen the risks of inflation
while addressing the need to stimulate demand."
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The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) was established in 1999 to promote democratic debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives. In order for citizens to effectively exercise their voices in a democracy, they should be informed about the problems and choices that they face. CEPR is committed to presenting issues in an accurate and understandable manner, so that the public is better prepared to choose among the various policy options.