A Day Before the Election, Poll Shows Mamdani Besting Cuomo in NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary

New poll results released Monday show State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani narrowly ahead of former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the city's Democratic mayoral primary, which takes place on Tuesday and will be conducted via ranked-choice voting.

Early voting in the race began on June 14 and has far exceeded early voting turnout from the previous Democratic mayoral primary in 2021, though that contest was impacted by Covid-19.

The final Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey of the primary race shows that Cuomo leads Mamdani 35% to 32% (within the plus or minus 3.4% margin of error) when voters are asked about their top pick overall. However, when the two face off in a ranked-choice voting simulation, Mamdani—a democratic socialist—wins with an outright majority in the eighth round with 52% to Cuomo's 48%, according to the poll. The margin of error for the final round is plus or minus 3.6%.

"On the day before the election, we stand on the verge of toppling a political dynasty and winning a city we can afford. But we can only do it with you," Mamdani wrote on Monday, referencing the poll.

The only other candidate who notched above 10% is New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who secured 12.8% when voters were asked to name their top pick in the race. Lander was recently arrested by federal agents at an immigration court in lower Manhattan while escorting an individual out of immigration court.

In New York City's ranked-choice voting system, which is used for certain elections including primary and special elections for mayor, voters rank multiple candidates on their ballots. If no candidate receives more than 50% of first choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and the votes that went to that candidate are reallocated to the voters' second choice. That distribution of votes repeats in subsequent rounds until one candidate wins an outright majority or there are only two candidates remaining.

"Over five months, Mamdani's support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a statement published Monday. "In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo's 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll."

Cuomo has been the consistent frontrunner in the contest, though some recent polling shows Mamdani eating into his lead or pulling ahead.

"This is an outlier: Every other credible poll in this election—including two released last week—has shown Governor Cuomo with a double digit lead, which is exactly where this election will end tomorrow. Between now and then we will continue to fight for every vote like he will fight for every New Yorker as mayor," a Cuomo spokesperson in a statement sent to multiple outlets.

In a Marist poll published last week, Cuomo broke above the 50% threshold in the seventh round of ranked-choice voting.

Mamdani has become a viable contender in the race in part because of an impressive ground game and his high number of individual small dollar donations.

"The campaign has tapped into people’s belief that things could genuinely be better. The context of [President Donald] Trump is a part of that, where people are feeling in a very dark place politically and feeling the necessity of getting involved," said one Mamdani canvasser who spoke to The American Prospect. Mamdani is “running on hope, possibility, and joy. We really could have a better society and a better city, and I think that has spoken deeply to people.”

Volunteers with his campaign have knocked on over a million doors around the city, according to his campaign website, and nearly 16,000 individual donors have contributed a donation of less than $100, according to The Financial Times. Cuomo has amassed a little over 1,000 donations from individual donors who gave less than $100, per the outlet.

Cuomo has benefited from backers supporting him through super political action committees, which are not limited in how much they raise though they are barred from donating directly to a political candidate. According to the FT, pro-Cuomo super PACS have poured an unprecedented $27 million into the race.

When it comes to high profile political endorsements, Cuomo has the backing of several establishment Democratic figures, including former President Bill Clinton and U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). Meanwhile, Mamdani has earned the endorsement of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).