US Consumer Sentiment Falls to Second-Lowest Level in 70+ Years—And It's Likely to Get Worse

Consumer sentiment in the United States continued its sharp plunge this month under President Donald Trump as Americans grew increasingly concerned about the prospect of a job-destroying recession in the near future—fears fueled in large part by the administration's erratic tariff policies.

The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, released Friday, found that U.S. consumer sentiment plunged 11% at the start of April compared to last month, a decline that was "pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation."

That's according to the survey project's director, Joanne Hsu, who said that "sentiment has now lost more than 30% since December 2024 amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year."

Friday's assessment shows that overall consumer sentiment has fallen to its second-lowest level since the early 1950s.

"Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month," said Hsu. "The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead increased for the fifth consecutive month and is now more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009."

"This lack of labor market confidence," Hsu added, "lies in sharp contrast to the past several years, when robust spending was supported primarily by strong labor markets and incomes."

"President Trump isn't executing an economic agenda, he's piloting a kamikaze mission."

Lindsay Owens, executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, said in a statement that "the scariest part of today's plunging consumer sentiment numbers is that we might be looking at the high-water mark."

"The president's reckless trade policies have roiled markets, shattered retirement accounts, and halted shipping orders. We could be looking at price spikes, shortages, and even a recession in the weeks and months to come," said Owens. "Worst of all, while consumers are bracing for impact, Congress is gutting the safety net they'll need to rely on if the economic devastation continues. President Trump isn't executing an economic agenda, he's piloting a kamikaze mission."

Trump himself has admitted that his tariffs, which he partially paused for 90 days earlier this week, could spark a recession.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the president "told advisers that he was willing to take 'pain'" and "privately acknowledged that his trade policy could trigger a recession but said he wanted to be sure it didn't cause a depression."

While Goldman Sachs withdrew its recession forecast after Trump announced the partial tariff pause, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi told Fortune that he took "no solace in the president’s announcement to delay the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days."

"Even if the administration can cut a few deals during this period, it will leave us with significantly higher tariffs, which are tax increases on American consumers and businesses," said Zandi. "This will weigh heavily on the U.S. and global economies and likely result in a recession."

"To what end?" he asked. "There will be no boost to investment in the U.S. The trade deficit will be no smaller. And there won't be any reliable increase in government revenues. It is impossible to fathom why the world is being put through all this unnecessary drama."