SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER
Daily news & progressive opinion—funded by the people, not the corporations—delivered straight to your inbox.
5
#000000
#FFFFFF
5
#000000
#FFFFFF
A fighter from the Fajr Libya (Libya Dawn) militia aims his weapon during clashes with forces loyal to Libya's internationally recognised government near the Wetia military air base, west of the capital Tripoli on December 29, 2014 (AFP Photo/Mahmud Turkia)
All-Out War in Libya Predicted without Further Peace Talks
UNITED NATIONS - Libya is teetering on the edge of all-out war, with a brutal stalemate and misery for civilians predicted unless a recent minor diplomatic breakthrough can be built upon.
The International Crisis Group (ICG), a non-governmental organisation working to prevent and resolve conflict, warned Thursday of a "dramatic turning point" in the "deteriorating internal conflict," with a descent into social radicalism predicted.
Feb 27, 2015
UNITED NATIONS - Libya is teetering on the edge of all-out war, with a brutal stalemate and misery for civilians predicted unless a recent minor diplomatic breakthrough can be built upon.
The International Crisis Group (ICG), a non-governmental organisation working to prevent and resolve conflict, warned Thursday of a "dramatic turning point" in the "deteriorating internal conflict," with a descent into social radicalism predicted.
"The most likely medium-term prospect is not one side's triumph, but that rival local warlords and radical groups will proliferate, what remains of state institutions will collapse... and hardship for ordinary Libyans will increase exponentially," the ICG said in a report, 'Libya: Getting Gevena Right.'
"Radical groups... will find fertile ground, while regional involvement - evidenced by retaliatory Egyptian airstrikes - will increase."
The ICG called on parties to the conflict to continue negotiations commenced in Geneva in January, which ended with no resolution but a commitment to extend talks.
Claudia Gazzini, ICG's Libya Senior Analyst, said any full-scale war would likely descend into stalemate.
"Libya is split between two sides claiming increasingly threadbare legitimacy, flirting with jihadi radicals and pursuing politics through militia war backed by foreign powers," she said.
"[The] Tobruk and Tripoli authorities are equally matched, and cannot defeat each other. To save the country they must negotiate a national unity government."
On Feb. 20, a spokesperson for U.N. Secretary-General Ban-Ki Moon said "a political solution to the current crisis must be found quickly to restore peace and stability in the country and confront terrorism."
The conflict in Libya - between the elected government of Libya, based in Tobruk, and forces aligned to its opposition party, based in Tripoli - has been ongoing since May 2014. ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq in the Levant) forces entered the conflict in October, taking control of areas in eastern Libya.
Reliable numbers of casualties have not been released. A U.N. Support Mission In Libya (UNSMIL) report in December 2014 stated only that "hundreds" had been killed in preceding months, including 450 people in Benghazi and 100 people in western Libya.
The website libyabodycount.org, which claims to assemble death tolls from media reports, states 2,825 people were killed in Libya in 2014, and 380 have been killed in 2015.
UNSMIL said in December at least 215,000 people have been displaced due to the conflict.
In January, representatives of the fighting factions met in Geneva for two rounds of talks. ICG said it was the first time since September 2014 such negotiations had taken place, with talks focusing on what form a Libyan unity government would take.
The ICG urged the U.N. to push for further talks, as well as to ask "regional actors who contribute to the conflict by providing arms or other military or political support - notably Chad, Egypt, Qatar, Sudan, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates... to press their Libyan allies to negotiate in good faith in pursuit of a political settlement."
Jean Marie Guehenno, president of ICG, said organising further negotiations was essential in staving off deterioration in the conflict.
"January's UN achievement in bringing the Libyan sides together for national unity talks in Geneva offers a glimmer of hope. This breakthrough should encourage the UN Security Council to unite," he said.
An Urgent Message From Our Co-Founder
Dear Common Dreams reader, The U.S. is on a fast track to authoritarianism like nothing I've ever seen. Meanwhile, corporate news outlets are utterly capitulating to Trump, twisting their coverage to avoid drawing his ire while lining up to stuff cash in his pockets. That's why I believe that Common Dreams is doing the best and most consequential reporting that we've ever done. Our small but mighty team is a progressive reporting powerhouse, covering the news every day that the corporate media never will. Our mission has always been simple: To inform. To inspire. And to ignite change for the common good. Now here's the key piece that I want all our readers to understand: None of this would be possible without your financial support. That's not just some fundraising cliche. It's the absolute and literal truth. We don't accept corporate advertising and never will. We don't have a paywall because we don't think people should be blocked from critical news based on their ability to pay. Everything we do is funded by the donations of readers like you. Will you donate now to help power the nonprofit, independent reporting of Common Dreams? Thank you for being a vital member of our community. Together, we can keep independent journalism alive when it’s needed most. - Craig Brown, Co-founder |
Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.
UNITED NATIONS - Libya is teetering on the edge of all-out war, with a brutal stalemate and misery for civilians predicted unless a recent minor diplomatic breakthrough can be built upon.
The International Crisis Group (ICG), a non-governmental organisation working to prevent and resolve conflict, warned Thursday of a "dramatic turning point" in the "deteriorating internal conflict," with a descent into social radicalism predicted.
"The most likely medium-term prospect is not one side's triumph, but that rival local warlords and radical groups will proliferate, what remains of state institutions will collapse... and hardship for ordinary Libyans will increase exponentially," the ICG said in a report, 'Libya: Getting Gevena Right.'
"Radical groups... will find fertile ground, while regional involvement - evidenced by retaliatory Egyptian airstrikes - will increase."
The ICG called on parties to the conflict to continue negotiations commenced in Geneva in January, which ended with no resolution but a commitment to extend talks.
Claudia Gazzini, ICG's Libya Senior Analyst, said any full-scale war would likely descend into stalemate.
"Libya is split between two sides claiming increasingly threadbare legitimacy, flirting with jihadi radicals and pursuing politics through militia war backed by foreign powers," she said.
"[The] Tobruk and Tripoli authorities are equally matched, and cannot defeat each other. To save the country they must negotiate a national unity government."
On Feb. 20, a spokesperson for U.N. Secretary-General Ban-Ki Moon said "a political solution to the current crisis must be found quickly to restore peace and stability in the country and confront terrorism."
The conflict in Libya - between the elected government of Libya, based in Tobruk, and forces aligned to its opposition party, based in Tripoli - has been ongoing since May 2014. ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq in the Levant) forces entered the conflict in October, taking control of areas in eastern Libya.
Reliable numbers of casualties have not been released. A U.N. Support Mission In Libya (UNSMIL) report in December 2014 stated only that "hundreds" had been killed in preceding months, including 450 people in Benghazi and 100 people in western Libya.
The website libyabodycount.org, which claims to assemble death tolls from media reports, states 2,825 people were killed in Libya in 2014, and 380 have been killed in 2015.
UNSMIL said in December at least 215,000 people have been displaced due to the conflict.
In January, representatives of the fighting factions met in Geneva for two rounds of talks. ICG said it was the first time since September 2014 such negotiations had taken place, with talks focusing on what form a Libyan unity government would take.
The ICG urged the U.N. to push for further talks, as well as to ask "regional actors who contribute to the conflict by providing arms or other military or political support - notably Chad, Egypt, Qatar, Sudan, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates... to press their Libyan allies to negotiate in good faith in pursuit of a political settlement."
Jean Marie Guehenno, president of ICG, said organising further negotiations was essential in staving off deterioration in the conflict.
"January's UN achievement in bringing the Libyan sides together for national unity talks in Geneva offers a glimmer of hope. This breakthrough should encourage the UN Security Council to unite," he said.
UNITED NATIONS - Libya is teetering on the edge of all-out war, with a brutal stalemate and misery for civilians predicted unless a recent minor diplomatic breakthrough can be built upon.
The International Crisis Group (ICG), a non-governmental organisation working to prevent and resolve conflict, warned Thursday of a "dramatic turning point" in the "deteriorating internal conflict," with a descent into social radicalism predicted.
"The most likely medium-term prospect is not one side's triumph, but that rival local warlords and radical groups will proliferate, what remains of state institutions will collapse... and hardship for ordinary Libyans will increase exponentially," the ICG said in a report, 'Libya: Getting Gevena Right.'
"Radical groups... will find fertile ground, while regional involvement - evidenced by retaliatory Egyptian airstrikes - will increase."
The ICG called on parties to the conflict to continue negotiations commenced in Geneva in January, which ended with no resolution but a commitment to extend talks.
Claudia Gazzini, ICG's Libya Senior Analyst, said any full-scale war would likely descend into stalemate.
"Libya is split between two sides claiming increasingly threadbare legitimacy, flirting with jihadi radicals and pursuing politics through militia war backed by foreign powers," she said.
"[The] Tobruk and Tripoli authorities are equally matched, and cannot defeat each other. To save the country they must negotiate a national unity government."
On Feb. 20, a spokesperson for U.N. Secretary-General Ban-Ki Moon said "a political solution to the current crisis must be found quickly to restore peace and stability in the country and confront terrorism."
The conflict in Libya - between the elected government of Libya, based in Tobruk, and forces aligned to its opposition party, based in Tripoli - has been ongoing since May 2014. ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq in the Levant) forces entered the conflict in October, taking control of areas in eastern Libya.
Reliable numbers of casualties have not been released. A U.N. Support Mission In Libya (UNSMIL) report in December 2014 stated only that "hundreds" had been killed in preceding months, including 450 people in Benghazi and 100 people in western Libya.
The website libyabodycount.org, which claims to assemble death tolls from media reports, states 2,825 people were killed in Libya in 2014, and 380 have been killed in 2015.
UNSMIL said in December at least 215,000 people have been displaced due to the conflict.
In January, representatives of the fighting factions met in Geneva for two rounds of talks. ICG said it was the first time since September 2014 such negotiations had taken place, with talks focusing on what form a Libyan unity government would take.
The ICG urged the U.N. to push for further talks, as well as to ask "regional actors who contribute to the conflict by providing arms or other military or political support - notably Chad, Egypt, Qatar, Sudan, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates... to press their Libyan allies to negotiate in good faith in pursuit of a political settlement."
Jean Marie Guehenno, president of ICG, said organising further negotiations was essential in staving off deterioration in the conflict.
"January's UN achievement in bringing the Libyan sides together for national unity talks in Geneva offers a glimmer of hope. This breakthrough should encourage the UN Security Council to unite," he said.
We've had enough. The 1% own and operate the corporate media. They are doing everything they can to defend the status quo, squash dissent and protect the wealthy and the powerful. The Common Dreams media model is different. We cover the news that matters to the 99%. Our mission? To inform. To inspire. To ignite change for the common good. How? Nonprofit. Independent. Reader-supported. Free to read. Free to republish. Free to share. With no advertising. No paywalls. No selling of your data. Thousands of small donations fund our newsroom and allow us to continue publishing. Can you chip in? We can't do it without you. Thank you.