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unrig our economy
GOP Ripped for 'Holding US Economy Hostage' as Nearly Half of States Face Recession
"At a time when costs are rising and tariffs are wreaking havoc on people's pocketbooks, Republicans are doubling down on their agenda of raising healthcare costs on millions of Americans."
Oct 20, 2025
US states accounting for roughly a third of the nation's gross domestic product are currently in recession or on the verge of one as the federal government shutdown enters its fourth week, with congressional Republicans and President Donald Trump refusing to support an extension of key healthcare subsidies that are set to lapse at the end of the year.
A recent analysis by Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi estimates that 22 states are experiencing an economic downturn or are at serious risk of recession, a nascent crisis fueled by Trump's tariffs, mass deportations, and sweeping attack on the federal workforce—an assault that has intensified since the federal government shut down at the beginning of October.
States currently in or on the brink of recession include Maine, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, and Georgia. Among the states “treading water” are California and New York, according to Zandi, whose analysis was based on figures that predated the government shutdown.
Leor Tal, campaign director at the progressive advocacy coalition Unrig Our Economy, said Monday in response to the analysis that "Republicans in Congress are holding the US economy hostage, and working families are paying the price."
"At a time when costs are rising and tariffs are wreaking havoc on people's pocketbooks, Republicans are doubling down on their agenda of raising healthcare costs on millions of Americans," said Tal. "It's time for congressional Republicans to reopen the government, extend the healthcare tax credits, and start lowering costs for working families."
The shutdown, which Trump has embraced and exploited to advance his far-right agenda, began at a time when the country's economy was already on uneasy footing, with food prices continuing to rise despite the president's campaign promises, GOP Medicaid cuts causing chaos across the nation, and the labor market flashing signs of distress.
With no end to the shutdown in sight, The Associated Press noted Sunday that the "the U.S. Travel Association said the travel economy is expected to lose $1 billion a week as travelers change plans to visit national parks, historic sites, and the nation's capital, where many facilities such as Smithsonian Institution museums and the National Zoo are now closed to visitors."
If the government remains shut down in November, tens of millions of Americans could see cuts to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits—which boost the economy while reducing hunger—and other aid.
Meanwhile, even as the Trump administration withholds federal labor market data amid the shutdown, economists say private and state-level figures signal escalating pain for workers that is sure to intensify the longer the closure persists.
"The fingerprints of Trump policy decisions are most clearly found in the distinct rise in federal [unemployment insurance] claims—claims filed specifically by workers laid off from federal agencies," Elise Gould and Joe Fast of the Economic Policy Institute wrote last week. "However, we are also seeing troubling trends in UI claims in regular state programs, particularly in the Washington, DC metropolitan area."
"The shutdown (and potentially the attempted politicization of key government data-collection agencies) could leave policymakers flying blind just as the economy encounters real turbulence," they cautioned.
John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute, warned earlier this month that the shutdown "could be a tipping point to recession."
"If it is resolved quickly, the costs will be small," Diamond argued, "but if it drags on, it could send the US economy into a tailspin."
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Price Index Report Shows Why Trump Policies Are Delivering 'Extra Pain' for US Consumers
"The People’s Price Index demonstrates how Republican policies are raising prices and are responsible for the extra pain millions of Americans are feeling everyday."
Oct 15, 2025
With the Bureau of Labor Statistics temporarily out of commission due to the shutdown of the federal government, one progressive advocacy organization is stepping up with some numbers of its own to measure the health of the US economy.
Unrig Our Economy on Wednesday announced the creation of the "People's Price Index," a report that highlights how US consumers are being hurt by the policies of President Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
"The People’s Price Index demonstrates how Republican policies are raising prices and are responsible for the extra pain millions of Americans are feeling everyday," explained Unrig Our Economy.
Among other things, the report focuses on the role that Trump's tariffs have played in raising food prices, as staples such as beef, coffee, and fresh produce have all seen dramatic price increases over the last several months.
As The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, consumers have been struggling with the continued rise in grocery prices, and many of them appear to simply be buying less food than they normally would in order to save money.
Dirk Van de Put, CEO of snack company Mondelez International, told the Journal that US shoppers have "no inclination to increase their spending" on food, even as prices have continued to rise.
"They’re unsure about what’s going to happen, when those tariff effects really are going to hit them," Van De Put added.
In addition to grocery prices, the report examines the impact of Trump's tariffs on foreign lumber, furniture, and kitchen cabinets, all of which went into effect this week.
In short, the report found that anyone planning on doing a renovation to their house in the near future will have to pay significantly more.
"The head of the Hispanic Construction Council said that kitchen cabinets and vanities will cost homeowners 'thousands' more due to a 50% tariff Trump placed on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities," Unrig Our Economy explained. "Trump’s furniture tariffs are expected to raise the cost of a home by as much as $60,000 in some markets."
Unrig Our Economy's analysis of the tariffs comes just days after investment bank Goldman Sachs released new research estimating that US consumers are shouldering up to 55% of the costs stemming from Trump’s tariffs, even though the president has repeatedly made false claims that the tariffs on imports exclusively tax foreign nations and companies.
The price index also explores how the changes to healthcare spending in the Republican Party's One Big Beautiful Bill Act are expected to raise up the cost of having health insurance.
"President Trump and congressional Republicans’ refusal to extend crucial health care tax credits has already caused insurers to propose the largest hike in monthly premiums since 2018," the report notes. "If Republicans allow these tax credits to expire, monthly premiums will double on average for people who get insurance from the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace. Some people will see premiums go up by nearly $2,000 a month."
Additionally, the report finds that the cuts made to programs such as Medicaid will result in fewer Americans being insured, putting more financial strain on hospitals thanks to an increase in emergency room visits, which will thus "cause people with private, employer-based insurance to pay hundreds of dollars more each year for their healthcare."
Progressive advocacy group Groundwork Collaborative this week also highlighted the negative effects that Republicans' failure to extend ACA tax credits will have on Americans' financial and physical health.
"Trump and Republicans in Congress would rather shut down the government than address the fact that average premiums will more than double for over 22 million Americans in mere weeks," Groundwork Collaborative explained. "A family of three earning $70,000 will pay an extra $3,017 next year. A 60-year-old couple earning $85,000 will pay an extra $18,080—more than a fifth of their income."
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‘People’s Jobs Report’ From Economic Justice Campaigners Shows Harm of GOP Policies
"Trump stopped the Bureau of Labor Statistics from releasing its monthly jobs report," said one advocate. "But people deserve to know just how bad Trump's economy is."
Oct 03, 2025
With the US government entering the third day of a shutdown Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics didn't release the monthly jobs report as scheduled—but one economic justice group said that even without the official analysis of the labor market, it's clear that President Donald Trump and the Republican Party's policies have "devastated workers and families," with the shutdown making matters worse for millions.
Unrig Our Economy provided its own People's Jobs Report to "fill the gaps" left by Republicans, who have refused to agree to Democrats' demands to extend Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies and reverse Medicaid cuts in a spending bill to keep the government open.
Trump and GOP leaders have falsely claimed that Democrats are demanding "free healthcare" for undocumented immigrants—who are not eligible for government-run healthcare programs like Medicaid. The Democratic Party and experts have warned that the expiration of the ACA subsidies would raise healthcare premiums by 75% for millions of Americans.
Unrig Our Economy noted in its "Jobs Day" report that the expiration of the tax credits could also cost the US economy nearly 300,000 jobs in the next year, including 130,000 jobs lost "because of direct reductions in the provision of hospital, physician, and other ambulatory care as well as reductions in pharmacy-related services."
As the Commonwealth Fund reported in March, 156,000 jobs could be lost next year in sectors including manufacturing, retail, and real estate "as a result of the indirect or induced effects of healthcare funding losses," with rural communities among the hardest-hit areas.
“This ‘People’s Jobs Report’ from Unrig Our Economy shows how destructive Republican policies have been on the economy."
Those projected losses would compound "some of the most alarming economic developments" under the Republican-controlled government, said Unrig Our Economy.
The group cited an ADP report which found that while official statistics can't be reported as long as the BLS is closed, US companies shed an estimated 32,000 jobs in September.
About 13,000 jobs were lost in June, the group noted—the first time the economy lost jobs since 2020. The unemployment rate in last month's BLS report stood at 4.3%—the highest it's been since 2021.
Unemployment claims also rose to nearly 2 million in August—the highest since 2021—while Trump's tariff policies have "caused chaos for employers" including small businesses, where employment has dropped by 26,700 since the president took office for his second term in January.
"In tariff-related industries, payrolls fell by 90,100 jobs, including 42,000 jobs in manufacturing," said Unrig Our Economy. "Wholesale trade jobs fell by more than 26,000 since January and mining and logging jobs fell by 12,000 during the same period."
The group released its report a day after Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) called on the federal government to move forward with releasing the official jobs report despite the government shut down. Democrats have warned that the Trump administration has kept Americans in the dark about the true state of the economy, including when the president demanded the firing of Erika McEntarfer, who until August was the commissioner of the BLS.
McEntarfer was dismissed after the agency released a jobs report that showed the economy had added only 73,000 jobs in July—data that Trump baselessly claimed had been falsified to harm him politically. Her departure, however, didn't stop the flow of negative news about the economy under Republican leadership; the jobs report released in early September showed only 22,000 jobs created the previous month.
“Donald Trump’s economic agenda is inflicting massive pain on our economy and to add to the economic uncertainty, he’s shut down the government rather than save healthcare for millions of Americans," said Warren on Thursday. "But let’s be clear: The jobs data scheduled to come out this Friday has undoubtedly been collected and the president must release it. Without it, the Federal Reserve will not have the full picture it needs to make decisions this month about interest rates that will impact every family across the country. Donald Trump has the power to make sure the federal government can continue producing and releasing this critical information on Friday and beyond during his shutdown.”
William Beach, a former commissioner of the BLS, said this week that the September jobs data has been collected.
"Trump stopped the Bureau of Labor Statistics from releasing its monthly jobs report because Americans are struggling, and the numbers are disastrous," said Alexandra De Luca of American Bridge 21st Century. "But people deserve to know just how bad Trump's economy is."
A Bloomberg poll of economists found that employers likely added 53,000 jobs last month—fewer than the average of 64,000 added over the previous six months—and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago estimated that the unemployment rate has remained at 4.3%.
“Working people deserve a government that lowers their healthcare costs and creates good-paying jobs,” said Leor Tal, Unrig Our Economy campaign director Leor Tal. “This People’s Jobs Report from Unrig Our Economy shows how destructive Republican policies have been on the economy. Not only are Republicans in Congress tanking the economy by raising costs on families and cutting essential programs that help them make ends meet, but they’re destroying jobs too—all while giving billionaires massive tax breaks.”
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