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congressional budget office
Trump's 'Golden Dome' Shield Exposed as 'Trillion-Dollar Boondoggle' by CBO
Sen. Jeff Merkley called the project “nothing more than a massive giveaway to defense contractors paid for entirely by working Americans.”
May 12, 2026
The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday released a report estimating that President Donald Trump's proposed "Golden Dome" missile defense system would cost $1.2 trillion to create, deploy, and operate over the first 20 years of its existence.
The CBO report projects that acquisition costs for the proposed national missile defense (NMD) system would account for the vast majority of the $1.2 trillion total, including "costs for the system’s major components—namely, the interceptor layers and a space-based missile warning and tracking system."
In fact, the report says that the NMD system's space-based interceptor layer will be so expensive that it "accounts for about 70% of acquisition costs and 60% of total costs."
The CBO also questioned whether this massive investment would successfully protect the US from a foreign missile attack.
"Although the notional NMD system... would be far more capable than defenses the United States fields today," the report states, "it would not be an impenetrable shield or be able to fully counter a large attack of the sort that Russia or China might be able to launch."
"The strategic consequences of deploying an NMD system with the capacity considered here are unclear," the report continues, "because they hinge on an adversary’s perception of the defense's capability and how that adversary chose to respond."
The CBO's estimate on the missile system's cost was nearly seven times the projection Trump made last year, when he said it would cost just $175 billion.
And because the US Department of Defense still hasn't delivered key details about the proposed system, the CBO wrote, it is currently "impossible to estimate the long-term cost" of the initiative.
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), a longtime critic of the "Golden Dome" proposal, said the CBO report shows the Trump-backed project is "nothing more than a massive giveaway to defense contractors paid for entirely by working Americans."
"Just like the president’s symbolic renaming of the Department of Defense or deploying National Guard troops to our cities," added Merkley, who is the ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee, "this move to fund the ‘Golden Dome’ will be far more effective at squandering money than protecting American lives."
The Oregon Democrat vowed to "continue to work with my colleagues in the Senate to prevent another dime from flowing to this racket."
Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), also a longtime critic of the president's proposed missile system, wrote in a social media post that "Trump’s Golden Dome is a $1.2 trillion golden sieve that won’t stop a nuclear attack, but will balloon the deficit and boost the bottom lines of billionaires."
Tommy Vietor, former National Security Council staffer under President Barack Obama and current co-host of Pod Save America, was even blunter in his criticism of the "Golden Dome" plan.
"$1.2 TRILLION for this dumb fucking Golden Dome missile defense system," he wrote in a social media post. "The initial estimate was $175 billion! Madness. No one wants this."
Daniel Larison, contributing editor at Antiwar.com and former senior editor at The American Conservative magazine, wrote that the CBO report exposed Trump's dome as a "trillion-dollar boondoggle."
Trump has said that he was inspired to develop such a missile system after being impressed by Israel’s “Iron Dome," despite the fact that Israel has a vastly smaller landmass to defend compared to the US and has historically faced far more danger from missile and rocket attacks.
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House Republican Healthcare Plan Would Leave 100,000 More Uninsured Per Year: CBO
"It’s a raw deal for working people: higher costs and less coverage, or no coverage at all," said Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle.
Dec 17, 2025
The Republican bill that's set for a vote in the US House on Wednesday would leave around 100,000 more Americans uninsured per year over the next decade, according to a new analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
The analysis published late Tuesday examines each major section of the legislation, which experts have characterized as an assortment of GOP healthcare ideas that—in combination—would do little to achieve its stated goal of "lower healthcare premiums for all."
The CBO estimates that the Republican bill, which stands no chance of passing the Senate even if it clears the House on Wednesday, would lower gross benchmark premiums by 11% on average between 2027 and 2035.
But the legislation does not extend enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies that expire at the end of the year, meaning premiums overall are poised to more than double on average in the coming year. Many Americans are expected to forgo insurance coverage entirely in the face of unaffordable premium increases.
Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said Tuesday that the CBO analysis "makes clear that the bill Republican leadership wants to pass tomorrow would make a bad situation even worse," compounding the widespread damage caused by the Medicaid cuts the party approved over the summer.
"It’s a raw deal for working people: higher costs and less coverage, or no coverage at all," said Boyle. "If Republicans were serious about fixing the healthcare crisis they created, they’d work with Democrats to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits and prevent costs from rising for tens of millions of Americans.”
"While Congress heads home for the holidays, it’s leaving millions of families behind to wonder how they will make ends meet in the new year."
The CBO analysis came hours after House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) shot down a bipartisan push for a vote to extend the expiring ACA tax credits, which more than 20 million Americans relied on to afford health coverage.
But on Wednesday, four swing-district House Republicans—Brian Fitzpatrick, Rob Bresnahan, and Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania and Mike Lawler of New York—revolted against the GOP leadership and signed onto a Democratic discharge petition aimed at forcing a floor vote on a proposed three-year extension of the enhanced ACA subsidies.
"The only policy that is worse than a clean three-year extension without any reforms, is a policy of complete expiration without any bridge," Fitzpatrick said in a statement. "Unfortunately, it is House leadership themselves that have forced this outcome."
It's unclear when the House will vote on the extension, as lawmakers are leaving town for a two-week holiday recess on Friday. The House is set to return to session on January 6, 2026—after the official expiration of the ACA subsidies.
“While Congress heads home for the holidays, it’s leaving millions of families behind to wonder how they will make ends meet in the new year,” Ailen Arreaza, executive director of the advocacy group ParentsTogether, said in a statement Wednesday. “By refusing to fix this healthcare crisis, Republicans are choosing political games over families’ health and financial security."
"These subsidies have been a lifeline for millions, and letting them expire will force millions to make impossible choices or even go without coverage altogether," said Arreaza. "Make no mistake: Families around the country will pay the price for Congress’ inaction."
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Trump-GOP Giveaway to Big Pharma Will Hit Taxpayers With $9 Billion in Higher Drug Costs
"Donald Trump and Republicans are selling out America's seniors," said one advocate.
Oct 21, 2025
A major pharmaceutical industry handout that Republicans—with the support of one Senate Democrat—included in President Donald Trump's signature legislative package is expected to cost US taxpayers nearly twice as much as originally expected, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said in an updated analysis released Monday.
The CBO initially projected that the provision, known as the ORPHAN Cures Act, would cost around $5 billion over the next decade. But the office said Monday that its earlier assessment did not take into account several major, high-priced drugs that will be exempted from Medicare price negotiations as a result of the Trump-GOP law.
The budget office said it now expects the provision of Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act to cost $8.8 billion over the next 10 years.
Among the drugs included in the new CBO analysis is Keytruda, a cancer medication sold by Merck that carries a list price of $24,062 every six weeks. The Trump GOP-budget law delays Keytruda's eligibility for Medicare price negotiations by at least a year, postponing significant potential savings for taxpayers and patients.
Merith Basey, executive director of Patients for Affordable Drugs Now, said in response to the updated CBO analysis that "the ORPHAN Cures Act is a wildly expensive handout to Big Pharma that will harm patients, drain taxpayer dollars, and weaken the government's ability to rein in high drug prices."
Basey noted that the "insatiable" pharmaceutical industry is not satisfied with the enactment of the ORPHAN Cures Act, which restricts Medicare price negotiations for drugs that treat more than one rare disease. Big Pharma, Basey said, is "spending record sums this year to advance additional carveouts like the EPIC Act, which would exempt even more blockbuster drugs from negotiation."
"Any support for these bills goes against the will of the 90% of Americans who want Congress to go further to lower drug prices—not facilitate another handout to Big Pharma," said Basey.
"This isn't about helping lower costs—it's about doing the bidding of big drug companies, and Trump and the GOP are all too happy to oblige."
The deep-pocketed pharmaceutical industry has waged war on the popular Medicare price negotiation program since its inception during the Biden administration.
While pharmaceutical giants' efforts to gut the program have been stymied in court, the industry-friendly Trump administration and Republican lawmakers have done pharma's bidding through legislation and executive action. Earlier this year, as Common Dreams reported, Trump signed an executive order aimed at delaying price negotiations for a broad category of medications despite the president's repeated promises to bring down costs.
"Trump and Republicans are selling out America's seniors," said Brad Woodhouse, president of the advocacy group Protect Our Care. "Instead of letting Medicare negotiate lower prices for more drugs, they carved out a loophole to protect the industry's most profitable drugs."
"Not only does the GOP tax bill throw over 15 million Americans off their healthcare and hike costs for millions more, but it also forces older Americans to pay more for life-saving medicines while CEOs and billionaires line their pockets with more money than they know what to do with," Woodhouse continued. "This isn't about helping lower costs—it's about doing the bidding of big drug companies, and Trump and the GOP are all too happy to oblige."
Steve Knievel, access to medicines advocate at Public Citizen, said Monday that "instead of transferring $10 billion from taxpayers and cancer patients to drug corporations that are already extremely profitable, President Trump and members of Congress must work to strengthen and expand Medicare drug price negotiations."
"Instead of gutting the law through bills like the ORPHAN Cures Act, EPIC Act, and MINI Act so Big Pharma can block negotiations on blockbuster treatments," Knievel added, "Congress should pass legislation to empower Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices on all costly medicines and allow all patients to access lower, negotiated prices, even if they don't have Medicare."
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'Trump Is Making Your Life More Expensive': Tariff Chaos Engulfs US Economy
“Poor and working people are paying the price" of the president's tariff policies, said Rep. Pramila Jayapal.
Sep 16, 2025
US consumers are increasingly feeling the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs, and the head of the Congressional Budget Office said on Monday that they are fueling inflation.
During an appearance on CNBC, Congressional Budget Office (CBO) director Phillip Swagel said that the president's tariffs have pushed up inflation more than the agency initially anticipated, although he emphasized that their impact on inflation so far was "not by a lot, but by enough to show" in the numbers.
Swagel also said that the higher-than-expected inflation was a surprise because there are signs that the US economy has slowed significantly since January.
CNN on Tuesday published an analysis using numbers from the Yale Budget Lab estimating that Trump's tariffs will cost US households an average of $2,300 extra per year, which is nearly three times as much as the $800 US households are projected to receive on average from new tax provisions contained in the Republicans' "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" that passed earlier this year.
The combined distributional impacts of the Trump tariffs and the GOP tax law are also highly regressive. According to CNN's analysis, a household with annual earnings of $38,840 would be $2,560 worse off thanks to the tariffs and the tax law, while households earning $517,700 would be $8,180 better off.
The Washington Post on Tuesday reported that Trump's tariffs aren't just hurting Americans in the US, but those living abroad as well.
As explained by the Post, Americans living abroad have been unable to send mail to the US without paying hefty fines thanks to the chaos being caused by Trump's tariffs. The reason for this, writes the paper, is that Trump earlier this year canceled a policy known as the de minimis exemption, effective August 29, that "allowed the tariff-free flow of goods under $800 into the United States."
This has led not just to increased shipping costs for Americans living abroad, but has also resulted in foreign nations slowing or even outright halting shipments to the US because they are unsure about how to calculate the costs.
"Confusion about the rules have led to issues since the exemption was lifted on August 29," the Post wrote. "At first, national postal services in more than 30 countries temporarily suspended sending some or most US-bound packages. Since then, restrictions have eased, and the Universal Postal Union deployed a tool this week to help operators calculate duties and resume services."
Reacting to fresh revelations about the impact of the tariffs, many progressive Democrats hammered Trump for increasing the cost of living for working-class families.
"Under Donald Trump’s economy: coffee is up 26%, beef is up 14%, oranges are up 17%, bananas are up 6%, chicken is up 6%, chocolate chip cookies are up 5%, potato chips are up 4%, milk is up 4%," wrote Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). "But average worker pay is only up 2%. Trumpflation is eating up your paycheck."
Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) added that “from school supplies to gas to groceries, Trump is making your life more expensive."
"Poor and working people are paying the price of his reckless policies," said the congresswoman.
Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), a member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, took to the Senate floor on Monday to single out a different Trump policy that he said was also raising prices for US consumers—namely, his attacks on green energy projects.
"This administration is shamelessly working to block one of our best defenses against rising energy bills: renewable energy," Padilla said. "And I say so because renewable energy is absolutely affordable, renewable energy is abundant, and whether you want to admit it or not, renewable energy sources are our future."
The senator also pointed to his home state of California as an example of what can happen when the government encourages the development of green energy projects.
"[California is] harnessing the power of solar and wind and hydroelectric power and nuclear, geothermal, even hydrogen power to our state," he said. "And it’s exactly because of those investments that even in a year like 2024, just last year, when we experienced record heatwaves that we also saw record renewable energy generation, and we kept the lights on."
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Trump’s Budget Cuts Will Only Make Things Worse for Struggling Rural Hospitals
The budget bill will put enormous strain on rural hospitals, which are often the largest local employer in addition to crucial care providers.
Sep 14, 2025
Bari Senecal waits outside the emergency department at Columbia Memorial Hospital in Hudson, New York. “I do construction. I fell three stories,” Senecal explains. “I was on top of the scaffold and this new kid we hired didn’t put the braces on correctly.”
Like 70 million Americans, Senecal qualifies for Medicaid, the state and federally-funded public health insurance program for low-income patients. She also qualifies for Medicare. She’s what’s known as being “dual-eligible.”
At Columbia Memorial, 63% of patient service revenue is reimbursed through a combination of the two programs. But “we run a deficit every year,” says Dorothy Urschel, CEO of Columbia Memorial Health. “For many, many years, we’ve been reimbursed at well below cost.”
The hospital has the only emergency room serving the more than 110,000 residents scattered among two predominately rural counties. “Of course, we’re struggling,” says Urschel. “But rural community hospitals always struggle.”
Columbia Memorial already closed its maternity ward in 2020—part of a distressingly common trend. A recent study from the Journal of the American Medical Association found that more than half of rural counties now have no hospital-based obstetric services whatsoever.
Like other rural hospitals across the country, Columbia Memorial is bracing for the loss of Medicaid-covered patients and funding because of the Republican reconciliation bill, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which was signed by US President Donald Trump this summer.
Over the last decade more than 100 rural hospitals have closed across the country—50 of them in just the last eight years.
According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the bill will cut $911 billion in federal Medicaid spending over the next decade and result in an estimated 10.3 million people losing their Medicaid health insurance. Add in cuts to the Affordable Care Act and the number of people expected to lose their insurance rises to 16 million.
According to Larry Levitt, vice president for health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, this amounts to “the biggest rollback in federal support for health coverage ever.” And it will put enormous strain on rural hospitals especially—which in Columbia County and elsewhere are often the largest local employer in addition to crucial care providers.
The GOP staggered these cuts so that the worst effects of the budget changes won’t be felt until after the midterm elections in 2026 are safely past. But “some rural hospitals around the country have already started closing” in anticipation of the cuts, warns Michael Chameides, a member of the Columbia County Board of Supervisors.
Senator Ed Markey (D-Mass.) provided a list of 338 rural hospitals in danger of either closing or drastically scaling back services. All 338 had experienced three consecutive years of negative total profit margins and were in the top 10% of institutions with patients on Medicaid.
Rural hospitals facing disaster are identified individually according to which state will see the losses. Kentucky, Louisiana, and California top the list with 35, 33, and 28 rural hospitals identified as at risk of closure, respectively. New York has 11. (Columbia Memorial isn’t officially one of them, but Garnet Medical Health Center Catskills, another Hudson Valley hospital, is.)
An estimated 1,796 hospitals remain in rural America, but those numbers obscure the level at which the services they offer may have already contracted. According to the Government Accountability Office, over the last decade more than 100 rural hospitals have closed across the country—50 of them in just the last eight years.
In New York and every other state, as federal funding runs dry it will be up to the governor and legislature to make provisions for struggling rural hospitals—or stand by and watch them collapse.
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'Insane Economics,' Bernie Sanders Says of Musk's Trillionaire Potential
"No society can survive when one man becomes a trillionaire while the working class struggles to survive," the democratic socialist senator said.
Sep 08, 2025
US Sen. Bernie Sanders responded Monday to reporting that the board of electric carmaker Tesla is proposing a compensation package that could elevate CEO Elon Musk—already the world's richest person—from a mere multicentibillionaire to the first trillionaire in history.
Under the proposed package, which was first reported by The New York Times, Musk could add approximately $900 billion to his world-leading $435 billion fortune if Tesla's stock market value is increased to $8.5 trillion from around $1.1 trillion today.
"Another $900 billion for Elon Musk, while 60% live paycheck to paycheck?" Sanders (I-Vt.) asked in a social media post. "Really?"
"This is not only grossly immoral. It is insane economics," argued Sanders. "No society can survive when one man becomes a trillionaire while the working class struggles to survive. This cannot stand."
Another $900 billion for Elon Musk, while 60% live paycheck to paycheck? Really?This is not only grossly immoral. It is insane economics.No society can survive when one man becomes a trillionaire while the working class struggles to survive.This cannot stand.
[image or embed]
— Senator Bernie Sanders (@sanders.senate.gov) September 8, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Sanders—whose "Fighting Oligarchy" tour has drawn huge crowds from coast to coast—has been an outspoken critic of the policies and practices of both major parties under which the rich, and especially the ultrarich, have grown wealthier at the expense of working-class Americans.
"What you are seeing now is an oligarchy with enormous economic power and political power in both political parties," Sanders said at a Saturday rally in Brooklyn for progressive Democratic New York City mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani. "What we are here tonight to say is, to hell with you. We are going to take you on!"
US economic inequality has been exacerbated by the policies of the Trump administration and congressional Republicans. Although President Donald Trump campaigned on promises to "make America affordable again," upon returning to office he invited Musk to help gut the federal government and has pursued a pro-billionaire agenda under which critical social programs are being sacrificed upon the altar of multitrillion-dollar tax breaks for corporations and oligarchs.
An analysis published last week by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office affirmed that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed by Trump in July will increase the wealth of the richest 10% of US households by $13,600 annually—largely due to tax cuts—while simultaneously taking about $1,200 annually from the poorest 10% of households, mainly due to cuts in programs including Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).
Earlier this month, Americans turned out in cities and towns across the nation for more than 1,000 "Workers Over Billionaires" Labor Day rallies "to reclaim worker power against billionaires who hoard unprecedented wealth and power."
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CBO Confirms Trump Budget Law Will Trigger Over $500 Billion in Automatic Medicare Cuts
"Republicans knew their tax breaks for billionaires would force over half a trillion dollars in Medicare cuts—and they did it anyway," said Rep. Brendan Boyle.
Aug 15, 2025
A report released on Friday confirmed what many Democratic lawmakers have long been warning about: Republicans' massive budget law will trigger significant cuts to Medicare.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its analysis of the GOP's budget package and acknowledged that it would be required to issue a sequestration, which is essentially a cancellation of budgetary resources.
The sequestration is required under the rules set out by the Statutory Pay‑As‑You‑Go Act of 2010 that requires spending cuts that are equal to a piece of legislation's negative impact on the budget deficit.
The only way to avoid these cuts, said the CBO, would be for Congress to pass "subsequent legislation that would offset the deficit increase, waive the recordation of the bill's effects on the scorecard, or otherwise mitigate or eliminate the statutory requirements."
The CBO said that these cuts could take as much as $45 billion out of Medicare for fiscal year 2026. What's more, the amount cut from Medicare would increase in every subsequent year, resulting in total cuts of as much as $536 billion between 2026 and 2034.
Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Penn.), the ranking member of the House Budget Committee, excoriated his Republican colleagues for passing a budget that will result in cuts to Medicare, a program that US President Donald Trump repeatedly pledged not to touch during the 2024 presidential campaign.
"For months now, I have been sounding the alarm on the devastating Medicare cuts caused by Trump's Big Ugly Law," he said. "Republicans knew their tax breaks for billionaires would force over half a trillion dollars in Medicare cuts—and they did it anyway. American families simply cannot afford Donald Trump's attacks on Medicare, Medicaid, and Obamacare."
The Republicans' budget package also took a major ax to Medicaid, as it cut spending on the program by an estimated $1 trillion over the next decade. The CBO has already projected that millions of people will lose coverage.
Medicaid cuts are already having a negative impact. Several states have said that they are slashing rates paid to medical providers, which experts have said could result in several hospitals in these states going bankrupt given that many of them were in bad financial shape even before the GOP's budget law passed last month.
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'As Expensive as It Is Cruel': CBO Says Trump-GOP Budget Law Will Explode Deficit by $4.1 Trillion
"It's a disgraceful law that forces working families to pay the price so the ultra-rich can profit," said Rep. Brendan Boyle.
Aug 05, 2025
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office on Monday said the Republican budget package that President Donald Trump signed into law last month will push up interest rates and add at least $4.1 trillion to the deficit over the next decade—largely due to the measure's massive tax cuts for the rich and large corporations.
According to the CBO, growing interest payments on the national debt will account for $718 billion of the estimated $4.1 trillion total deficit increase. Economist Josh Bivens has noted that it would cost the federal government $4.1 trillion to send a $12,000 check to every adult and child in the United States.
If temporary tax provisions of the highly regressive Trump-GOP law are made permanent, the estimated deficit impact would soar to nearly $5 trillion, CBO Director Phillip Swagel—a Republican—wrote in a letter to Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) on Monday.
"Each and every analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office continues to show the same result regardless of how you look at it: this bill explodes the debt by trillions of dollars to fund tax breaks for billionaires," Merkley, the top Democrat on the Senate Budget Committee, said in a statement. "Republicans can't spin the fact that this bill is bad policy that kicks more than 15 million people off of their health insurance, will force millions of kids to go hungry, and explodes the national debt by $5 trillion over the next 10 years—pushing the cost of this bill onto future generations to ensure billionaires can pay less in taxes."
"It is the height of hypocrisy coming from the party that claims to be fiscally responsible," Merkley added.
The deeply unpopular Republican law includes the largest cuts to Medicaid and federal nutrition assistance in U.S. history, alongside major handouts to profitable corporations—including oil and gas firms, pharmaceutical giants, and tech companies.
Zion Research Group estimates that 369 companies in the S&P 500 are set to reap a combined $148 billion in cash tax savings this year as a result of the Trump-GOP law, which extends tax breaks in Republicans' 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Just four companies—Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft—are expected to rake in 38% of the $148 billion total.
The poorest 40% of Americans, meanwhile are set to see their taxes rise next year under the Trump-GOP bill, mostly due to Republican lawmakers' refusal to extend Affordable Care Act tax credits.
Wow, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google are getting 38% of the total cash savings from the part of Trump’s tax law going to corporations. That’s $15.7B to Amazon alone! https://t.co/l9AZth20RJ pic.twitter.com/XFVekRmrrp
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) August 5, 2025
Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), the ranking member of the House Budget Committee, said the new CBO analysis "yet again confirms Republicans' Big Ugly Law is as expensive as it is cruel."
"It explodes the deficit by over $4 trillion to pay for massive tax breaks for billionaires, while ripping healthcare and food assistance away from millions of Americans," said Boyle. "It's a disgraceful law that forces working families to pay the price so the ultra-rich can profit."
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GOP Megalaw Will Mean Tax Hikes for Many Poor Americans as Soon as 2026: Analysis
"The central fiscal priority in the megabill is to reward the wealthiest Americans with even more tax cuts, but to try to disguise that as a boon for working families," one policy expert told Common Dreams.
Jul 24, 2025
The Republican budget law that passed earlier this month—which hands out lavish tax breaks to the wealthiest Americans—will result in increased taxes on the poorest 40% of the country's poorest as early as 2026.
Many of low-income Americans will already see net losses to their income due to the law's drastic cuts to Medicaid and food stamps. However, most of those cuts will not begin to hit for multiple years.
But the lawmakers also allowed an enhancement of tax credits that helped millions of Americans pay for health insurance to expire and those effects will be felt much sooner, according to a study published Tuesday by the nonpartisan Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP)
That enhancement—passed in 2021 as part of the American Rescue Plan and extended until 2025 by the Inflation Reduction Act—provided nearly 20 million low- and moderate-income Americans who purchased health insurance on state and federal exchanges with tax relief that significantly shrunk their insurance premiums.
According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, recipients saved over $700 on average on their insurance premiums as a result of the tax breaks.
Largely as a result of this policy change, the ITEP study projects that the poorest 20% of Americans will end up paying $140 more on average than they paid before the law passed as soon as next year. The next poorest 20% will end up paying $100 more.
(Chart: Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy)
An estimated 4.2 million are also expected to lose health insurance as a result of the change, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), adding to the 10 million it estimates will lose insurance due to Medicaid cuts.
This does not even take into account the effects of President Donald Trump's regressive tariffs, which will also hit the poorest Americans hardest by increasing the cost of goods.
"The central fiscal priority in the megabill is to reward the wealthiest Americans with even more tax cuts, but to try to disguise that as a boon for working families," Jon Whiten, the deputy director of ITEP told Common Dreams.
A previous ITEP estimate found that for everyone except the top 20% of Americans, the cost of the tariffs will either largely offset or surpass the amount they'll save due to the tax breaks in the law.
(Chart: Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy)
Meanwhile, the law is estimated to give the richest 1% of Americans $117 billion in tax cuts next year. That amount far exceeds the tax savings of the bottom 60% of Americans put together, who will cumulatively save just $77 billion.
The report found that even foreign investors who own shares in U.S. companies will benefit more in 2026 than many of the poorest Americans due to the law's extension of corporate tax breaks: They will receive $32 billion in tax cuts in 2026 compared to just $1.5 billion for the bottom 20% of Americans.
"This bill is already very unpopular, and most Americans see it for what it is: a big boost for the richest folks and not much for anyone else," said Whiten.
According to polling last week by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 6 in 10 Americans believe the law will do more to hurt than help lower-income people.
Whiten added, "People are likely to continue to sour on it as they learn more about it and see how it impacts their family finances."
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CBO: Trump Law Will Add $3.4 Trillion to Deficit, Boot 10 Million Off Health Insurance
"The 'Big Beautiful Bill' will cost more than it saves, and working families stand to lose the most," said one union.
Jul 21, 2025
A nonpartisan federal agency estimated Monday that the Republican megabill signed into law by U.S. President Donald Trump on July 4 will add $3.4 trillion to the national deficit and cause at least 10 million people to lose health insurance over the next decade.
Warnings about the law's impact on the national debt and the healthcare of millions—particularly Americans on Medicaid—were prominent during the GOP effort to pass the budget reconciliation package by Trump's Independence Day deadline, but they did not stop Republicans in Congress from sending the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act to the president's desk.
When asked about the new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis on Monday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt claimed the package was "a great bill for the American people," and "a fiscally responsible bill."
Meanwhile, critics of the law used the CBO release as an opportunity to call out the GOP. In a Monday floor speech, U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) highlighted that "the number of people who will lose health insurance could be higher—as many as 15 million," when accounting for other attacks, including on the Affordable Care Act (ACA), or Obamacare.
"It betrays every family worried about paying for groceries, the mortgage, the rent, prescription drugs—all going up because of Donald Trump and his administration."
"This finalized independent analysis from the CBO confirms it: Republicans' signature bill is the ultimate betrayal of the American people," Schumer declared. "It betrays every single family who will lose health insurance. It betrays our financial future. It betrays our children and grandchildren who will pay for these billionaire tax breaks, as the debt rises and rises."
"It betrays every family worried about paying for groceries, the mortgage, the rent, prescription drugs—all going up because of Donald Trump and his administration. And it betrays every rural community that benefits from good-paying energy jobs," he continued. "Republicans' supposed signature bill betrays everyone outside of the billionaire class and the special interests."
Sarah Lueck, vice president for health policy at the progressive think tank Center on Budget and Policy Priorities said on social media that "the latest CBO estimates make clear that the so-called 'Big Beautiful Bill' is anything but—it would cause widespread harm with more than $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid and ACA marketplaces and higher costs for families trying to afford healthcare and groceries."
Lueck explained that the 15 million estimate factors in the 10 million due to health cuts in the package, 4.2 million because the legislation didn't extend expiring ACA tax credits, and more marketplace losses under Trump administration rule changes.
"The new law will take Medicaid away from people enrolled via the expansion if they don't meet a work requirement, harming parents, people with disabilities, and those with chronic illnesses. Protected groups and working people will lose coverage due to red tape," she warned. Due to the ACA expirations, Lueck added, "self-employed people, gig workers, early retirees, and low-wage workers are among those who will face steep hikes; some will end up uninsured."
The GOP package contains the biggest-ever cuts to not only Medicaid but also the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), noted Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at another think tank, the Center for American Progress. He stressed that it will lead to "untold amounts of human suffering among the poorest people in the country."
U.S. House Budget Committee Ranking Member Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) said in a statement that "President Trump and his Republican lapdogs can't hide from the truth. This final nonpartisan CBO estimate confirms their Big Ugly Law adds $3.4 trillion to the deficit to fund tax breaks for billionaires."
"It's one of the most expensive bills ever passed," he said. It's also one of the cruelest. More than 15 million Americans will lose their healthcare because of the law's assault on Medicaid and Republican plans to dismantle the ACA. I was proud to lead the fight against this disastrous law and will continue working to remind the American people who sold them out, and who's still fighting for them."
Unrig Our Economy campaign director Leor Tal responded to the CBO's findings by pointing to recent CNN polling that shows roughly 6 in 10 Americans oppose the new Republican law.
"It's easy to see why the vast majority of Americans oppose this pro-billionaire agenda," said Tal. "Republicans in Congress just jeopardized health coverage for millions of Americans, SNAP benefits for millions of children and families, and the existence of hundreds of rural hospitals across the country—all so they could give another tax break to the richest of the rich. We will continue to hold Republicans' feet to the fire for voting for this massive betrayal of American families."
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