3.5% and the Hopeful Math for Saving Democracy

Think resisting authoritarianism is too big of a lift? Think again. This spring, while the U.S. resistance movement may not be in full bloom, it is blossoming.

The “3.5 percent rule”—identified by political scientist Erica Chenoweth—should be on the lips of every American anxious about the Trump administration’s headlong drive to replace our democracy with authoritarianism. After studying more than 300 nonviolent resistance campaigns, Chenoweth and colleagues’ research revealed a startling truth: when just 3.5 percent of a population engages in sustained, strategic civil resistance, authoritarian regimes fall.

Think about it. Not 50 percent. Not 30 percent. Just 3.5 percent. The message is clear: when enough people turn out—repeatedly and nonviolently—democracy wins.

When people commit to showing up—demonstrating creatively and persistently—history is on our side. That should give hope to anyone worried about our nation’s future. It will be hard; the road will be muddy and rough. But, as Frederick Douglass reminds us: “Power concedes nothing without a struggle. Never has; never will.”

What’s needed now is not despair, but determination. Not hand-wringing, but hand-raising. Where I live, it’s one in every 28 standing up consistently and courageously as agents of change, transforming darkness into light. What is it where you live?

In western Massachusetts where I live, the combined population of Hampshire and Franklin counties is 232,000. Based on the 3.5 percent rule, that’s 8,000 people—not just activists and organizers—but everyday folks: teachers and health care workers; farmers and students; parents and grandparents. That’s 8,000 out of 232,000. One out of every 28. Doable.

Hardy Merriman, another vital voice in the study of civil resistance, reminds us it’s about more than rallies, marches, and highway overpass standouts. Civil resistance succeeds when it’s strategic, visible, and persistent—petitioning, striking, boycotting, creatively refusing to comply with unjust policies. It’s everyday people stepping into their power. That power is far greater than those trying to consolidate it.

Nonviolence trainer, activist, and writer Rivera Sun, whose YA novels address peace-building, highlights the “imagination” side of movements—that we must not only resist but also build the world we want to live in.

That dual work of resisting and reimagining democracy is already happening across America. Still unsure? Go on YouTube and watch Republican congressmembers' disastrous town halls. Then, check out Sen. Bernie Sanders and Cong. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's wildly popular rallies in red districts.

Here’s a sampling of communities around the country, including their political leanings:

Valdosta, GA (pop. 32,000): 3.5 percent = 1,120. Conservative/MAGA-supportive

Los Alamos, NM (pop. 35,000): 3.5 percent = 1,225. Moderate/purple-leaning

Santa Fe, NM (pop. 88,000): 3.5 percent = 3,080. Liberal/active resistance

Eau Claire, WI (pop. 70,000): 3.5 percent = 2,450. Moderate/purple

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 44,000): 3.5 percent = 1,540. Liberal/active resistance

Portland, ME (pop. 68,000): 3.5 percent = 2,380. The city strongly resists Trump policies and supports democratic norms. Maine’s unflappable Gov. Janet Mills has become an inspiration to the resistance movement, forcefully speaking out against Mr. Trump.

The movement is growing. Will Republicans join?

Alaska’s Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski recently voiced what many of her GOP colleagues fear to say out loud: standing up to Trump risks personal and political backlash. Her admission highlights a chilling truth: many elected Republicans are too afraid to uphold democracy. If they won’t stand up, it’s up to us to step up.

History backs us. Resistance movements have succeeded in Chile, East Germany, and Serbia, to name a few. When ordinary people refuse to be ruled by illegitimate power, the seemingly impossible becomes inevitable. We’re fortunate that Nobel Peace Prize-winning journalist, Filipino-American Maria Ressa, is a mentor to the U.S. movement, drawing on her still fresh experience standing up to authoritarianism in the Philippines.

The implications for the nation are profound. We’re a country of 330 million, so 3.5 percent equals 11.5 million people. That’s the number we need to side with democracy over authoritarianism. That’s not fantasy. It’s strategy. In many, many communities—well beyond western Massachusetts—it’s growing. Person by person; town by town.

From the hills of New England to college towns in Virginia; from the red-leaning plains to liberal cities by the sea, Americans are pushing back. The movement to defend democracy is pulsing with vitality. We are not helpless. We are not powerless. We are the nonviolent peace force we’ve been waiting for.

What’s needed now is not despair, but determination. Not hand-wringing, but hand-raising. Where I live, it’s one in every 28 standing up consistently and courageously as agents of change, transforming darkness into light. What is it where you live?

We’re growing our numbers. We’re refining our strategy. We’re exercising our moral imagination.

History is calling. Let’s answer.