Mumbai Wake-up Call

A few
months ago, trucks loaded with goods crossed a border. All over the
world, this kind of thing happens every day, but not here. October
marked the first time in 60 years that Indian trucks loaded with apples
and walnuts traveled to Pakistan. The trucks returned carrying a
shipment of Pakistani rice and raisins.

Around the same time, India and Pakistan increased the number of
goods the two nations could trade from just 13 to nearly 2,000. They
opened new freight train lines and refurbished custom houses in
anticipation of vigorous cross border trade.

All of this goodwill is now frozen, stopped by a hail of bullets and
the deafening crash of bombs in Mumbai. The attacks - shocking in their
lethality and their high level of coordination - left more than 170
people dead. Beginning on November 26,, heavily armed gunmen fanned out
in the city of Mumbai - India's hub of international finance and
communication. They fired indiscriminately into crowds on the street,
in a train station and at a hospital for women and children. At the
luxurious Taj Mahal Hotel, a Jewish cultural center and other sites,
the attackers took and killed hostages, set off grenades, lit fires and
detonated bombs.

On Tuesday, the Indian government released the names of the nine
dead gunmen, announcing that they were all Pakistani and that they were
part of a larger cell of more than 20 men committed to carrying out
these attacks. A tenth gunman - Pakistani villager Mohammed Ajmal Kasab
- was apprehended and remains in custody. This new information
strengthens allegations that the attacks were the work of the
Pakistani-based Laskar-e-Taiba organization, which has in the past
received training and support from Pakistan's intelligence services. In
early December, Pakistani security forces raided the group's training
camps and offices and arrested members.

Rising Tensions

Tensions between India and Pakistan are at their highest levels
since 2001, when a suicide attack on the Indian parliament was carried
out - allegedly by groups based in Pakistan. Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh said that India would "go after" those responsible and called the attacks "well planned with external linkages."

Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari responded to these threats and
the allegations of Pakistani involvement in the attacks with a New York Timesop-ed,
in which he asserted that "Pakistan will take action against the
non-state actors found within our territory, treating them as
criminals, terrorists and murderers." As an indication of his
government's seriousness, Zardari described how his air force has been
striking militant targets with F-16 fighter planes for the past two
months.

The addition of this specific detail is not accidental or
incidental. Those F-16 fighters are made in the USA, long promised to -
and coveted by - Islamabad. The fact that Pakistan is now flying them
as it cooperates in the global war on terror is a sign of how close
relations between these two countries have grown in the past decade.

Against the backdrop of this latest wave of brutal violence (and as
both sides brandish their military might) an examination of
Washington's policies of military support and arms exports to these
rivals is long overdue.

Sixty Years, Three Wars

Both nations have fought three wars in their 60-year history and
continue to clash over the Kashmir region they both claim. In 1989,
Pakistan began supporting an Islamist insurgency in its mission to
drive out the 500,000 Indian troops deployed in Kashmir. It is here
that Laskar-e-Taiba got its start (and its support from Pakistani
security forces). For its part, India constructed a huge electrified
fence along the Line of Control in an effort to stop these Pakistani-backed incursions.

An estimated 68,000 people have died in Kashmir since 1989, and tens
of thousands more have been displaced by violence. India and Pakistan
entered into wide-ranging peace talks in June 2004 and agreed to a
series of steps aimed at resolving their disputes. Among other things,
the nuclear-armed rivals agreed to notify each other before testing
missiles, to open consulates, and to work toward a peace agreement
regarding Kashmir.

Even before the Mumbai attacks, the peace process was dragging. This
fall in Kashmir huge pro-independence demonstrations - the largest
since 1989 - triggering a violent crackdown by Indian security forces
which led to the death of more than 45 people and injured hundreds.

With a huge population and a burgeoning middle class, India is often
referred to as the "world's largest democracy." But India's aggressive
actions in Kashmir - and its human rights record more generally -
contradict this moniker. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is
particularly fond of this phrase despite the fact that her department's Human Rights Report
cites "numerous serious problems," including "extrajudicial killings of
persons in custody, disappearances, and torture and rape by police and
other security forces."

India is at the beginning of a major military upgrade that could
cost $100 billion, and U.S.-based defense contractors are eager for a
big slice of the business. After decades of looking to the Soviet Union
and then to Russia for geostrategic support, India has now turned to
the United States to feed its appetite for high-tech weaponry. In
September alone, the United States offered India more than half a
billion dollars in weapons systems, including HARPOON missiles. And in
October, India signed a major civilian nuclear cooperation deal with the Bush administration and is looking forward to increased investment from U.S. corporations as a result.

U.S. Military Aid

Despite continued violent political upheaval, a dismal human rights
record and a long legacy of dictatorship, Pakistan enjoys billions of
dollars in U.S. military aid as a close ally in the "Global War on
Terror." In 2006 alone, Pakistan signed agreements with the United
States for more than $3.5 billion in weaponry and military material,
making it the single largest recipient that year. In the past six
months, Washington has offered $190 million in weapons, including eight
refurbished Cobra helicopters worth $115 million.

In the wake of the Mumbai attacks and continued violence along the
Pakistan-Afghanistan border, these "all the weapons you want" policies
are now under review. In a new classified assessment of U.S strategy
towards Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Bush administration seems ready
to admit that the money and weapons haven't had the intended impact. An
official involved in drafting the report - which will be presented to
President-elect Barack Obama - toldThe New York Times
that despite "seven long years" of "proclaiming that Pakistan was an
ally...the truth is that $10 billion later" Pakistan still doesn't "have
the basic capacity for counterinsurgency operations."

U.S. weapons and military aid haven't transformed that nation into a
bastion of democracy and human rights either; the State Department's
own Human Rights Report
highlights a worsening situation with major human rights problems that
included "extrajudicial killings, torture, and disappearances."

With U.S. weapons and aid, the subcontinent's two nuclear-armed
nations are increasing the size and sophistication of their arsenals,
even as they continue to spar over territory, religion, and regional
dominance.

These alarming developments could bear bitter and dangerous fruit
for years to come. How the incoming Obama administration chooses to
respond will have broad implications across a range of issues:
affecting ongoing relations between the two competitors, fanning or
dampening tensions along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, provoking
or discouraging nuclear proliferation concerns, and impacting how the
United States succeeds or fails in the broader war on terrorism. As a
start, perhaps the Obama administration should encourage New Delhi and
Islamabad to focus on trading apples for rice and walnuts for raisins,
and stop adding U.S. weapons to an already volatile mix.