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himalayan glaciers
'We Knew This Was Coming': Deadly Himalayan Dam Burst Was Predicted by Scientists
The climate crisis is melting ice in the Himalayas, threatening to overflow glacial lakes as the Indian government rushes to build new dams.
Oct 06, 2023
Authorities raised the death toll to 42 on Friday after a glacial lake overwhelmed a dam in the Indian Himalayas earlier this week, in one of the worst disasters in the area in nearly half a century.
The dam breach on Wednesday, which was caused in part by extreme rainfall, had long been predicted by scientists and environmental advocates due both to the climate crisis and inadequate regulations.
"We knew that this was coming," Gyatso Lepcha, general secretary of local environmental group Affected Citizens of Teesta, said in a statement reported by The Associated Press.
The flooding occurred in India's Sikkim state after South Llonak Lake overflowed and breached the state's largest dam, AP reported further.
"Floodwaters have caused havoc in four districts of the state, sweeping away people, roads, bridges," Indian Army spokesperson Himanshu Tiwari told AFP.
The floodwaters destroyed 15 bridges, according to Reuters, and damaged or flattened more than 270 homes, AP reported.
State official Tseten Bhutia said that around 2,400 people had been rescued and 7,600 were living in emergency settlements, according to Reuters. Overall, the Sikkim government said that the disaster impacted a total of 22,000 people.
"It was already predicted in 2021 that this lake would breach and impact the dam."
"We got calls from people that river levels could rise at 3 am and we ran for our lives," 44-year-old Javed Ahmed Ansari, a Teesta valley river-rafting business owner, toldReuters. "We ran towards the hill in the jungle... We saw houses getting swept away. I can now only see the first floor of our house which is filled with sand, everything is submerged."
Officials said Friday that at least 42 people had died and 142 were still missing. After the flood, satellite photos revealed the lake had diminished by two-thirds, according to reporting by CBS and AFP.
The immediate cause of the flooding may be a combination of both a burst of extreme rainfall and a 6.2 magnitude earthquake in neighboring Nepal on Tuesday, according to AP. However, it is exactly the kind of disaster that scientists have warned about as the climate crisis melts Himalayan glaciers, swelling the waters of glacial lakes. South Llonak Lake had been growing faster than any other lake in Sikkim, scientists warned in a 2021 study.
"It was already predicted in 2021 that this lake would breach and impact the dam," Indian Institute of Technology, Indore, glaciologist Farooq Azam told CBS News. "There has been a substantial increase in the number of glacial lakes as the glaciers are melting due to global warming."
In general, mountain regions are melting twice as fast as the global average due primarily to the burning of fossil fuels. A study published in June found that the Hindu Kush Himalayas could lose 80% of their ice by 2100 if countries don't rapidly phase out oil, gas, and coal. In addition to triggering glacial floods, this would threaten the drinking water source relied on by 2 billion people.
This loss is clashing with the Indian government's attempt to transition to renewable energy by increasing hydroelectric power by 50% by the end of the decade, according to AP. To meet this goal, the government has signed off on hundreds of dams in the Himalayas, but a 2016 study warned that more than 20% of 177 dams in five Himalayan nations were at risk from breaches caused by the overflowing of glacial lakes.
That list included the dam that breached Wednesday, the Teesta 3 hydropower project, which began operating in 2017 after nine years of work. Local watchdog groups had also expressed concerns about its lack of safety features.
"Despite being the biggest project in the state, there were no early warning systems installed even though the glacier overflowing was a known risk," Himanshu Thakkar of South Asian Network for Rivers, Dams, and People told AP.
Wednesday's disaster follows another dam breach in 2021 that killed 81 people in Uttarakhand state. India’s National Disaster Management Agency promised Friday to fit most of the country's 56 at-risk glacial lakes with earning warning systems.
Extreme rainfall triggered by the climate crisis is also proving deadly in India and around the world, with more than 100 killed in northern India in July and nearly 50 in Himachal Pradesh in August.
"Intense rain has led to this catastrophic situation in Sikkim where the rain has triggered a glacial lake outburst flood and damaged a dam, and caused loss of life," International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development ice researcher Miriam Jackson told reporters. "We observe that such extreme events increase in frequency as the climate continues to warm and takes us into unknown territory."
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Himalayan Glaciers Could Lose 80% of Their Ice by 2100, Threatening Billions of Lives
"We need leaders to act now to prevent catastrophe. There is still time to save this critical region, but only if fast and deep emissions cuts start now."
Jun 20, 2023
A team of international scientists based in Nepal warned Tuesday that glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya are melting at an accelerated rate and could lose up to 80% of their volume by century's end if ambitious action isn't taken to slash planet-warming emissions.
The latest research from the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) shows that Himalaya glaciers disappeared 65% faster in the decade between 2010 and 2020 than in the previous 10 years as a result of global temperature increases.
By 2100, if current emissions trajectories hold, the critical glaciers that provide fresh water for 2 billion people in Asia could irreversibly lose 80% of their ice, according to the new report, which was published amid a punishing heatwave in the region.
"Snow cover is projected to fall by up to a quarter under high emissions scenarios—drastically reducing freshwater for major rivers such as the Amu Darya, where it contributes up to 74% of river flow; the Indus (40%); and Helmand (77%)," the researchers found. "The extent of frozen ground (permafrost) is decreasing, which will lead to more landslides and problems for infrastructure at high elevation."
Izabella Koziell, ICIMOD's deputy director-general, said Tuesday that "with two billion people in Asia reliant on the water that glaciers and snow here hold, the consequences of losing this cryosphere are too vast to contemplate."
"The glaciers of the Hindu Kush Himalaya are a major component of the Earth system," said Koziell. "We need leaders to act now to prevent catastrophe. There is still time to save this critical region, but only if fast and deep emissions cuts start now. Every increment of a degree of warming matters to glaciers here and to the hundreds of millions of people that depend on them."
"It underscores the need for urgent climate action. Every small increment will have huge impacts and we really, really need to work on climate mitigation."
The new report stresses that the glaciers and snow-covered mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya are a crucial water source for 12 river basins that run through 16 countries, meaning increasingly rapid melting poses a dire threat to people and wildlife in the region.
"Mountain communities are already living with the impacts of the accelerated melting of glaciers, changing snowfall patterns, growing variability in water availability, and increasing incidences of cryosphere-related hazards," the report notes. "These changes have a direct impact on their lives and livelihoods."
Philippus Wester, a lead author of the new report, told AFP that the speed with which the Himalayan glaciers are warming is "very worrying."
"This is going much faster than we thought," said Wester. "It underscores the need for urgent climate action. Every small increment will have huge impacts and we really, really need to work on climate mitigation... that is our plea."
The study was released hours after more than 140 economists and policy experts implored rich countries on Monday to end fossil fuel subsidies and tax the very wealthy to fund the kinds of sweeping climate measures needed to prevent devastating glacial melting and other consequences of runaway warming.
Also on Monday, the World Meteorological Organization and the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service published research showing that the combination of below-average precipitation and scorching summer temperatures across Europe "contributed to the largest loss of glacial ice recorded in the European Alps" last year.
"The Greenland ice sheet continued to lose mass during 2022," the organizations found, "and in September periods of exceptional warmth led to widespread surface melt."
The ICIMOD study warns that even if global warming is kept between the Paris accord targets of 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial levels, the Himalayan glaciers "are expected to lose 30%-50 % of their volume by 2100 relative to 2015."
Saleemul Huq, director of the Bangladesh-based International Center for Climate Change and Development, said Tuesday that the study lays bare "the devastating implications this will have on two billion people and the nature that rely on the water and ecosystems of the Hindu Kush Himalaya."
"It is beyond time that governments, donors, and agencies step up: to exit fossil fuels and honor their commitments to limit warming, to help communities adapt to those temperature rises already locked in, and to compensate them for property and ways of life that have already been lost," said Huq.
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