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Falling revenues are the direct result of tax cuts that undermine the ability of state governments to support crucial services that help families and communities thrive. Some states are about to be hit hard, but others show us there is a different path to take.
As the 2024 legislative season starts, state policymakers again face a critical choice when it comes to tax policy: whether to pursue policies that ensure wealthy households and corporations pay their fair share and that vital public services are funded adequately, or to continue the recent trend of costly, regressive tax cuts that undermine their ability to meet people’s needs or invest in the future. With state revenues weakening and other risk factors on the horizon, states should reject calls for additional tax cuts and instead protect and raise revenues to support public services that help families and communities thrive.
Over the past three years, a wide swath of states have taken a counterproductive tax-cutting path: using the cover of temporary budget surpluses stemming from federal COVID-19 relief and the subsequent economic recovery to enact costly, regressive, and permanent cuts to their state income tax systems. But the federal relief has expired, and states have mostly spent the fiscal aid.
Shrinking revenues will jeopardize current levels of state support for vital public services like schools, health services, and income support programs.
The fallout in lost revenue could be substantial. As our recent report detailed, 26 states cut personal and corporate income tax rates over the past three years. Those states stand to collect an estimated $111 billion less over the next five years than they otherwise would have, with the price tag in lost revenues hitting nearly $30 billion a year by 2028 (see graphic). The damage is already starting to show up on some state balance sheets.
Tax cuts on that scale could translate into serious harm, especially at a time when state budgets are under increasing strain from a host of factors, including expiring federal relief funds and a modestly cooled economy. Shrinking revenues will jeopardize current levels of state support for vital public services like schools, health services, and income support programs. They will also constrain states’ future potential by limiting policymakers’ ability to make new investments to tackle unmet or emerging needs and issues, such as child poverty, the health of pregnant or postpartum people, or housing affordability.
Consider some examples:
In three states — Arizona, North Carolina, and West Virginia — income tax cuts passed in the past three years are comparable in scope to the disastrous “Brownback tax cuts” adopted in Kansas in the 2010s, which decimated that state’s public services, failed to deliver a promised economic boost, and were eventually overturned by a bipartisan supermajority. Several other states are close behind in terms of the scale of future costs.
State policymakers are well-positioned to take this brighter path: they should seize the opportunity to break the tax-cut fever and pivot in a more equitable, prosperous, responsible, and forward-looking direction.
Fortunately, a few other states have recently shined a light on a different, brighter path of protecting and raising revenues to support current services and new investments.
These three aren’t alone: states including Colorado, Maine, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont, and the District of Columbia have also raised new revenues to fund initiatives like universal free school meals, expanded child care and paid leave, and more affordable housing options.
More states should follow suit in 2024 and beyond. While slashing income taxes tilts the balance of economic and political power further toward wealthy people and special interests and weakens states’ ability to thrive, boosting tax revenue in sound, targeted ways and reinvesting the money in people and communities are among the best ways for states to enhance their long-term promise. It enables states to reduce poverty and expand economic opportunity as well as enhance their residents’ overall quality of life and potential for long-term, broad-based prosperity. Progressive tax systems and durable support for public services are also vital for advancing racial justice and helping to protect the pillars of a healthy democratic process.
With a range of targeted policies at their disposal, state policymakers are well-positioned to take this brighter path: they should seize the opportunity to break the tax-cut fever and pivot in a more equitable, prosperous, responsible, and forward-looking direction.
No longer should a handful of billionaires be able to rig the rules to redirect resources from our communities to their country clubs, from our classrooms to their ballrooms, and from our public parks to their private jets.
For decades, billionaires have rigged the rules in their favor at the state and federal level to avoid paying what they owe in taxes while working people have paid the price. With the active support of politicians who depend on them to fund their campaigns, the rich just keep getting richer. During the Covid-19 pandemic alone, the world’s ten richest men vastly expanded their fortunes to $1.5 trillion by gouging prices, taking advantage of a global crisis, and denying fair wages to workers.
Last month, state legislators and grassroots organizations from eight states banded together to say “enough” and launched the first-ever multi-state effort to pass wealth tax bills across the country, and foster a fair shake economy where all families from all backgrounds have the freedom to thrive. In California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Maryland, and Washington, they introduced legislation to finally make billionaires pay what they owe toward making healthcare, education, and many other essential needs accessible to all of us. We’re now calling on lawmakers in the remaining 42 states to join this nationwide effort and do the same in their own legislatures. No longer should a handful of billionaires be able to rig the rules to redirect resources from our communities to their country clubs, from our classrooms to their ballrooms, and from our public parks to their private jets.
We’re seeing the results of rising income inequality every single day — in overcrowded classrooms, car-sized potholes on our streets, a healthcare system that puts people in debt at the most difficult times of their lives, and communities that have become unlivable due to rising costs and generations of underinvestment. The solution to this is obvious: unrig the rules and tax the ultrarich. But with Congress in gridlock, states must assume the responsibility of putting a check on billionaires and wealthy corporations.
Make no mistake: this collective effort cannot and will not stop at eight states.
Through the Fund Our Future campaign spearheaded by our two organizations — SiX Action and the State Revenue Alliance — state lawmakers, advocates, and grassroots organizers have been working together for over a year to establish a first-of-its kind network of tax justice leaders, build public support and political power for wealth taxes, and introduce legislation that will best address the unique needs of their communities.
This community-led wealth tax effort will help alleviate deep inequalities from coast to coast. Today, in Washington state, low-income households currently pay six times more in taxes compared to high-income households. California, where more billionaires reside than any other state in the country, faces the starkest homelessness crisis of any state, with affordable housing becoming farther out of range for many of the state’s residents. In Hawaii, the extreme effects of tourism have placed a deep strain on public services and the economy for decades, threatening the livelihoods of people living on the islands. Meanwhile in New York, the state with the highest income inequality in the nation, residents struggle to pay their heating bills in the winter while the ultra-wealthy buy and sell apartments to the tune of tens of millions. Wealth taxes in these states would tip the scales and raise billions of dollars to reinvest right where it’s needed the most: in our communities, in our schools, on our roads, towards our healthcare system, and so much more.
There is no justifiable barrier to these bills becoming law. A vast majority of voters across the country and political spectrum say they support tax increases on the ultra-wealthy. According to new polling, this includes 67 percent of voters in Washington, 68 percent in California, 70 percent in Connecticut, 75 percent in New York, 74 percent in Maryland, among other states. In all eight states, the same party controls both chambers of the state legislatures as well as the Governor’s mansion. We know that people across this country want the ultra-rich to pay what they owe and legislators in the majority have the power to make that a reality.
Make no mistake: this collective effort cannot and will not stop at eight states. Our communities depend on this campaign being replicated in every single state across the nation and we’re ready to work hand in hand with all legislators and voters alike who wish to join us in this movement.