SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER
Daily news & progressive opinion—funded by the people, not the corporations—delivered straight to your inbox.
5
#000000
#FFFFFF
To donate by check, phone, or other method, see our More Ways to Give page.
Daily news & progressive opinion—funded by the people, not the corporations—delivered straight to your inbox.
Photo: Getty Images
On the eve of the 2012 US presidential elections, leading candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama met in a dead heat as the final national polls came in.
On Monday afternoon, the final Gallop poll of the race showed Romney at 49% among 'likely' voters with Obama at 48%. Among registered voters Obama came in at 49% and Romney at 46%. Among likely voters in swing states Romney and Obama tied at 48%.
In the prior Gallup poll, released on Oct 29, 2012, Romney was leading 51-46; however, as the candidates raced from state to state into Monday night, trying to convince last minute undecideds, final national polls varied within one to two points, showing the race is "too close to call" as many pundits predicted.
Poll analyst Nate Silver, known for his uncanny accuracy in predicting the outcomes of 49 out of 50 states in the November 2008 presidential election, however, has a more decisive prediction in favor of Obama. On Silver's blog Five Thirty Eight, he predicts Obama will win at least 307 of the electoral college votes with 50.6% of the popular vote -- an 86.3% chance of winning.
Final poll results via Real Clear Politics:
Poll | Date | Obama | Romney |
CNN/Opinion Research | 10/29 - 11/4 | 48.5 | 48.1 |
Rasmussen Reports | 11/2 - 11/4 | 49 | 49 |
Gallup | 11/2 - 11/4 | 48 | 49 |
Monmouth/Survey USA/Braun | 11/1 - 11/4 | 48 | 48 |
NBC News/Wall St. Journal | 11/1 - 11/3 | 48 | 47 |
Pew Research | 10/31 - 11/3 | 50 | 47 |
ABC News/Washington Post | 10/31 - 11/3 | 49 | 48 |
Politico/GWU/Battleground | 10/29 - 11/1 | 48 | 48 |
* * *
The Real Clear Politics Average National Poll calculations puts Obama at a slight lead above Romney:
# # #
Donald Trump’s attacks on democracy, justice, and a free press are escalating — putting everything we stand for at risk. We believe a better world is possible, but we can’t get there without your support. Common Dreams stands apart. We answer only to you — our readers, activists, and changemakers — not to billionaires or corporations. Our independence allows us to cover the vital stories that others won’t, spotlighting movements for peace, equality, and human rights. Right now, our work faces unprecedented challenges. Misinformation is spreading, journalists are under attack, and financial pressures are mounting. As a reader-supported, nonprofit newsroom, your support is crucial to keep this journalism alive. Whatever you can give — $10, $25, or $100 — helps us stay strong and responsive when the world needs us most. Together, we’ll continue to build the independent, courageous journalism our movement relies on. Thank you for being part of this community. |
On the eve of the 2012 US presidential elections, leading candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama met in a dead heat as the final national polls came in.
On Monday afternoon, the final Gallop poll of the race showed Romney at 49% among 'likely' voters with Obama at 48%. Among registered voters Obama came in at 49% and Romney at 46%. Among likely voters in swing states Romney and Obama tied at 48%.
In the prior Gallup poll, released on Oct 29, 2012, Romney was leading 51-46; however, as the candidates raced from state to state into Monday night, trying to convince last minute undecideds, final national polls varied within one to two points, showing the race is "too close to call" as many pundits predicted.
Poll analyst Nate Silver, known for his uncanny accuracy in predicting the outcomes of 49 out of 50 states in the November 2008 presidential election, however, has a more decisive prediction in favor of Obama. On Silver's blog Five Thirty Eight, he predicts Obama will win at least 307 of the electoral college votes with 50.6% of the popular vote -- an 86.3% chance of winning.
Final poll results via Real Clear Politics:
Poll | Date | Obama | Romney |
CNN/Opinion Research | 10/29 - 11/4 | 48.5 | 48.1 |
Rasmussen Reports | 11/2 - 11/4 | 49 | 49 |
Gallup | 11/2 - 11/4 | 48 | 49 |
Monmouth/Survey USA/Braun | 11/1 - 11/4 | 48 | 48 |
NBC News/Wall St. Journal | 11/1 - 11/3 | 48 | 47 |
Pew Research | 10/31 - 11/3 | 50 | 47 |
ABC News/Washington Post | 10/31 - 11/3 | 49 | 48 |
Politico/GWU/Battleground | 10/29 - 11/1 | 48 | 48 |
* * *
The Real Clear Politics Average National Poll calculations puts Obama at a slight lead above Romney:
# # #
On the eve of the 2012 US presidential elections, leading candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama met in a dead heat as the final national polls came in.
On Monday afternoon, the final Gallop poll of the race showed Romney at 49% among 'likely' voters with Obama at 48%. Among registered voters Obama came in at 49% and Romney at 46%. Among likely voters in swing states Romney and Obama tied at 48%.
In the prior Gallup poll, released on Oct 29, 2012, Romney was leading 51-46; however, as the candidates raced from state to state into Monday night, trying to convince last minute undecideds, final national polls varied within one to two points, showing the race is "too close to call" as many pundits predicted.
Poll analyst Nate Silver, known for his uncanny accuracy in predicting the outcomes of 49 out of 50 states in the November 2008 presidential election, however, has a more decisive prediction in favor of Obama. On Silver's blog Five Thirty Eight, he predicts Obama will win at least 307 of the electoral college votes with 50.6% of the popular vote -- an 86.3% chance of winning.
Final poll results via Real Clear Politics:
Poll | Date | Obama | Romney |
CNN/Opinion Research | 10/29 - 11/4 | 48.5 | 48.1 |
Rasmussen Reports | 11/2 - 11/4 | 49 | 49 |
Gallup | 11/2 - 11/4 | 48 | 49 |
Monmouth/Survey USA/Braun | 11/1 - 11/4 | 48 | 48 |
NBC News/Wall St. Journal | 11/1 - 11/3 | 48 | 47 |
Pew Research | 10/31 - 11/3 | 50 | 47 |
ABC News/Washington Post | 10/31 - 11/3 | 49 | 48 |
Politico/GWU/Battleground | 10/29 - 11/1 | 48 | 48 |
* * *
The Real Clear Politics Average National Poll calculations puts Obama at a slight lead above Romney:
# # #