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Polls Show Obama, Romney in Dead Heat on Eve of Election

Common Dreams staff

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On the eve of the 2012 US presidential elections, leading candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama met in a dead heat as the final national polls came in.

On Monday afternoon, the final Gallop poll of the race showed Romney at 49% among 'likely' voters with Obama at 48%. Among registered voters Obama came in at 49% and Romney at 46%. Among likely voters in swing states Romney and Obama tied at 48%.

In the prior Gallup poll, released on Oct 29, 2012, Romney was leading 51-46; however, as the candidates raced from state to state into Monday night, trying to convince last minute undecideds, final national polls varied within one to two points, showing the race is "too close to call" as many pundits predicted.


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Poll analyst Nate Silver, known for his uncanny accuracy in predicting the outcomes of 49 out of 50 states in the November 2008 presidential election, however, has a more decisive prediction in favor of Obama. On Silver's blog Five Thirty Eight, he predicts Obama will win at least 307 of the electoral college votes with 50.6% of the popular vote -- an 86.3% chance of winning.

Final poll results via Real Clear Politics:

Poll Date Obama Romney
CNN/Opinion Research 10/29 - 11/4 48.5 48.1
Rasmussen Reports 11/2 - 11/4 49 49
Gallup 11/2 - 11/4 48 49
Monmouth/Survey USA/Braun 11/1 - 11/4 48 48
NBC News/Wall St. Journal 11/1 - 11/3 48 47
Pew Research 10/31 - 11/3 50 47
ABC News/Washington Post 10/31 - 11/3 49 48
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/29 - 11/1 48 48

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The Real Clear Politics Average National Poll calculations puts Obama at a slight lead above Romney:

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