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Benazir Bhutto's murder increasingly resembles an Agatha Christie whodunit in which all the potential suspects look guilty as hell.
Pakistan's now civilian dictator, President Pervez Musharraf, pleads innocent. But his henchmen ordered the crime scene hosed down, destroyed evidence, and forced doctors who examined Benazir's body to make the preposterous claim a fall, not bullets, killed her.
On Oct. 23, days after the first attempt to kill Bhutto in Karachi, she told me she "suspected" the chief of a government security agency staged the bombing. She repeated to me accusations that two other high-ranking Punjabi government officials, one a chief minister, were out to kill her.
On Oct. 25, Bhutto told me her phones and e-mail were being tapped by Musharraf's security services. A week later, she e-mailed me, saying she feared imminent arrest. A week before her murder, she repeated by phone that Musharraf's supporters were gunning for her.
On Oct. 30, I sent a long e-mail to Bhutto that outlined a new political strategy for her Peoples Party. In it, I concluded, "for your public appearances, follow India's tight security measures for its prime minister. Consider new, lightweight body armour, Dragonskin." By phone, I warned of snipers.
The government accuses tribal militants belonging to Pakistan's Taliban. But they strongly deny involvement. Al-Qaida's Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri claimed authorship of the assassination. My hunch says it was al-Qaida.
Bhutto's husband, Asif Ali Zardari, refused an autopsy on his wife's body, ordering it buried with haste, in keeping with Muslim custom. But an autopsy would have determined the true cause of death and exposed government lies.
President Musharraf got national parliamentary elections postponed to Feb. 18, hoping sympathy for the slain Bhutto would diminish. He called in Britain's Scotland Yard to investigate her murder, but only after all evidence was destroyed.
Ironically, when Bhutto became prime minister after the assassination of her family's bitter foe, my old friend Gen. Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, she ordered the ongoing investigation of his murder quashed and evidence destroyed.
WASHINGTON'S MAN
Washington still backs Musharraf as the man to wage its war in Afghanistan.
Though few westerners yet understand it, the 2001 U.S. invasion and occupation of Afghanistan, and spreading resistance, ignited the current explosion in Pakistan.
The Bush White House must keep spending billions in secret payments to Pakistan's army and intelligence services -- dispersed by paymaster Musharraf -- to help fight its war in Afghanistan and growing regional rebellions in two of Pakistan's four provinces.
Meanwhile, Bhutto's bereaved Peoples Party just elected her husband and 19-year-old son, Bilawal, as co-chairman -- using a fake will, charge disgruntled family members. I met Bilawal in London in October. He is a highly intelligent young man who shows lots of the Bhutto fire. But he's far too young to sit in parliament, and 16 years too young to become prime minister.
In the interim, papa Zardari will rule the party as regent. Whether he will run for PM is uncertain.
Known to all as "Mr. 10%" from his time as a government minister in charge of contracts and procurement, Zardari is dogged by grave corruption charges and three ongoing cases in Europe.
A FAMILY BUSINESS
The Bhuttos are believed to have amassed a large fortune stashed away in Europe. This great feudal landowning family of southern Pakistan considers the Peoples Party as their own family business, a legacy to be passed from one generation to the next.
Musharraf's popular support is down to 10%. So to win February elections, he must rig them. The U.S. appears ready to assist.
The best solution for Pakistan is a coalition between the Peoples Party, Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League, the incorruptible Imran Khan's small party, and Muslim parties. If they do not hang together, Musharraf will surely hang them separately.
With only three weeks left until elections on January 8, Pakistan's President Musharraf is trying to set the stage for free and fair elections by lifting the Emergency Rule he had imposed on November 3. While declared in the name of the war on terror, the 42-day Emergency Rule was used to eviscerate the judiciary by sacking independent judges and replacing them with Musharraf supporters. It was also used to crack down on the press, a press that had become one of the few checks on the military government. It's hard to consider the upcoming elections as legitimate when two key democratic institutions-the judiciary and the press-have been destroyed.
In the crackdown on the press, Musharraf did not go after the print media, since just a small fraction of Pakistanis read newspapers. Instead he targeted TV and radio stations, closing them down, beating journalists, seizing equipment. To return to the air, the stations had to sign a code of conduct promising not to broadcast anything that "defames or brings into ridicule the head of state or the military." Most of the stations signed this under duress and resumed broadcasting, but journalists all over the country continue to protest the restrictions and the nation's Press Clubs have become centers of anti-Musharraf activities.
One TV station that has still not been allowed back on the air is GEO, the nation's largest station. The government has a particular vendetta against GEO, closing not only its news channel, but also its sports, entertainment and youth channels-costing the station about $500,000 a day and jeopardizing the livelihoods of some 2,500 employees.
Ironically, it is precisely under Musharraf's rule that private television began to thrive in Pakistan. The General was used to controlling the airwaves through the state-run PTV, which the public had dubbed with the slogan "On PTV, seeing is not believing." People realized that state-run TV was government propaganda, and there was a thirst for independent TV outlets. While the Arab world saw the blossoming of Al Jazeera and other independent networks, Pakistan saw the creation of GEO.
"The channel ran into problems from its inception in 2002, as Musharraf tried to control it," GEO TV's charismatic President Imran Aslan recalled as he gave us a tour of the station's sprawling headquarters in Karachi. At a meeting with government officials in early 2002, the owner of GEO, who heads a powerful media conglomerate called The Jang Group, was informed that key members of the GEO team were unacceptable. He was told that if he hired a different crew, the station could go forward. "But what the government officials didn't know is that the owner had taped the entire conversation," laughed Aslan. "The next day we went straight to the Press Club and played the tape. The government was so embarrassed that it allowed GEO to go ahead."
The feisty station was launched in August 2002 with a talented team that innovated an all fronts, not just the news. They revived sports that were dying out-boxing, hockey, volleyball, football, polo. Ignoring the threats of religious fundamentalists, they televised marathons where men and women ran together. On the youth channel, they had call-in shows where young people from around the country could say whatever they wanted, unedited, uncensored.
They changed the debate on women's rights, launching a campaign to openly discuss Pakistan's controversial rape laws that blame the victim, threatening her with lashings or even stoning to death. Since they were enforced by Zia ul Haq in 1979, these laws have been regarded as untouchable for fear of a backlash by powerful religious extremists. GEO took the issue head on, and not from a more obvious feminist perspective, but by airing debates between religious leaders about whether these practices were in conformance with Islam. The debate, which included religious leaders labeling these practices are un-Islamic and immoral, led to the drafting of new laws more favorable to rape victims.
But what landed GEO in hot water with the government was their news show. "We would get Musharraf and top government officials on our shows and ask them tough questions," famed talk show host Hamid Mir told us. "I asked Musharraf how he could be President while on the payroll as Army Chief, or how could he let Benazir Bhutto back in the country but not Nawaz Sharif-questions he found hard to answer."
GEO reporters and talk show hosts questioned the army about missing people, about their tactics fighting in Balochistan and the tribal areas. They even pressed Benazir Bhutto so hard about the assassination of her brother, questioning how it happened under her rule, that she got up and walked out in the middle of a show.
GEO brought irreverence and satire to the TV screen with the hilarious animated cartoon called "Pillow talk", which featured conversations between Musharraf and Bush. Sometimes the two leaders would be chatting in bed, with George Bush wrapped up in a Mickey Mouse blanket.
"We alienated everyone, so I guess we did our job," joked Imran Aslan. "We were innovative, we pushed the limits, we had fun--and the people loved us. In less than six years, we had a lead of 8-9 points on other stations."
By closing the sports, youth and entertainment channels, the government's goal is to cripple the station financially. The head of GEO Sports Channel Mohammad Ali had tried, unsuccessfully, to petition the court to get the 24-hour sports station reopened. "What does sports have to do with the war on terror?", Ali asked when we met him outside the Courthouse. "We just lost $15 million dollars we had paid for the right to broadcast the India-Pakistan cricket match. The people were deprived of seeing a match they love, and we are being ruined financially."
"This is just vindictive on the part of the government; it's a blatant effort to put us out of business," said Aslan after losing the court case. "My biggest regret is that the government is jeopardizing the livelihoods of so many wonderful staff, who are among the finest minds in this country."
With the upcoming elections, GEO had been poised to play a major role. It had a campaign called "You have the vote, don't' you?, " encouraging people to exercise their right to vote. They had anticipated airing debates, educating voters about the views of the different parties and candidates, and training young people all over the country to report on the campaigns.
While the Bush Administration has been touting the upcoming elections, it has been silent on the continued silencing of GEO. It was not even mentioned in the testimony of Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher when he testified before Congress on December 6 about continued aid to Pakistan. Boucher admitted that democracy requires not only elections "but accountable government institutions, including a free and dynamic press." But instead of using the opportunity to demand that press restrictions be lifted, Boucher gave the stunning conclusion that "Pakistan is making progress toward these goals."
The U.S. government, which gives over $100 million a month to Pakistan, should speak out forcefully against the banning of GEO, and withhold U.S. assistance until GEO is back on air. And when assistance is resumed, a portion of our aid should help GEO get on its feet financially.
An independent media is the backbone of a democratic nation. If the US government is truly committed to democracy in Pakistan, it should support GEO and Pakistan's courageous journalists in their struggle for a free press.
The imposition of martial law under the garb of emergency should make it abundantly clear to everyone that dictators cannot afford even a semblance of either an independent judicial system or a free media. And neither can the assortment of criminals camouflaged as politicians who collaborate with dictators.
No one is fooled by Gen. Musharraf's latest deception to hang on to power. The war on terror has served him well so far and so why change a successful strategy; spread fear in the western capitals by invoking images of bearded men with guns and in the meanwhile brutally crush all dissent within the country, as was recently done by the Burmese Military. Having inducted pliant and amoral judges through the PCO, the next step would be to massively rig the elections while keeping the media muzzled. What he hopes is that he will again have a rubber stamp Assembly, a controlled majority and a friendly opposition, while real power will rest with him for another 5 years.
So, what we are witnessing is the first phase of the plan. Massive crackdown on the genuine opposition, lawyers, human right activists and the civil society. He is hoping that the police brutality will induce enough fear in the people for him to crush all dissent within a couple of weeks, before he takes the next step of getting himself endorsed by his pocket judges.
Unfortunately for Musharraf, everyone can see through his latest power grab attempt. No one believes that the judges were an impediment in his fight against terrorism. He has had absolute power for the last 8 years and yet terrorism and militancy is rising rapidly. What is he going to do that is different? He has had Pakistanis abducted and handed over to the U.S authorities without allowing them their right to prove their innocence in a court of law. Others have simply disappeared. Many tortured. Our own people have been bombed by helicopters and jets and when women and children have been killed, it has been shamefully called "collateral damage". No one to this day knows how many Pakistani (soldiers and civilians) have been killed since 9/11.
Most significantly his liberal credentials stand exposed completely, something he needed to make his dictatorship palatable to the west. Gimmicks like "enlightened moderation", "soft image" and "sufi Islam" stood exposed as the nation saw police boots and sticks shower on peaceful human rights protestors, lawyers and the media. All laws whether it was through PEMRA, PCOs, the 17th amendment or the disgraceful NRO were only to consolidate his power.
The time has come for the people of Pakistan to decide their destiny. If Musharraf succeeds in destroying the independent judiciary through his PCO, then I am afraid it is all down hill. His "pocket" judges will assist him in suppressing the media and in rigging the elections.
A Government formed from this unholy alliance will be a disaster for Pakistan and will ensure that it heads towards becoming a failed state.
For a start there will be a quantum leap in terrorism. His policies have alienated the Pushtuns in general and the tribal Pushtuns in particular. There are around a million armed men in the tribal areas. Does it make any logical sense that to capture a couple of thousand Al-Qaeda we invoke the hostility of around a million armed men - all natural guerrilla fighters? And that is why history tells us the British lost more soldiers in the tribal areas than the whole of the sub-continent during their Raj.
Moreover fundamentalism is on the rise in most of Northern Pakistan because of Musharraf's "enlightened moderate" media policies. There is great reaction amongst the masses who perceive this as a license to be vulgar. The Lal Masjid "warriors" belonged to this category. While in Swat & Dir, there has been a rising discontentment due to the poor governance system ever since the two regions became a part of Pakistan in 1974. Thanks to Musharraf being perceived as an American Stooge imposing an anti-Islamic agenda on the country, all these movements are morphing into one.
Another five years of Musharraf will mean that certain discontented sections of the society will lose faith in the democratic process and will also join the militants; thereby raising the prospects of Pakistan turning into another Algeria - the Army against its own people.
The other disaster of Musharraf dictatorship would be a further diversion of the country's resources away from the people. During his 8 years 1.8% of the GDP was spent on education - the lowest ever in our history and consequently today Pakistan's state school education system has collapsed. According to the U.N Human Development Index Pakistan has the worst social indicators in South Asia. Even Burma is ahead. On the other hand in 2006 Pakistan spent US $ 5.1 billion on arms. A new GHQ is being built on 2500 acres in Islamabad at the cost of billions of dollars.
Equally disastrous is the collapse of governance in Pakistan. According to Transparency International this is the most corrupt Government in our history. Hardly surprising since crooks, criminals and even terrorists (according to the Canadian Supreme Court the MQM is a terrorist organization) are sitting at the helm of affairs. The biggest scams in our history have been during the past 5 years. Rs.55 billion loans to the rich and powerful have been waived off while the common man has been crushed by unprecedented inflation.
Hence it is imperative that all sections of Pakistani society stand behind Chief Justice Iftikhar and demand his restoration along with the other honorable judges. We should not accept the PCO or those judges who have taken oath by it.
Only if Justice Iftikhar is restored will we have an independent judiciary, which is the bedrock of a genuine democratic system. The independent judiciary will protect the media's freedom and ensure free and fair elections that are vital for the country's survival only. Free and fair elections can throw up a Government that can start a political dialogue with the Militants. The war against terrorism can only be won if the people from within whom the terrorists operate, also consider them to be terrorists. If on the other hand they are perceived as heroes or freedom fighters than it is a never ending war - and history tells us that it cannot be won. Moreover, a democratic Government which comes through free and fair elections has to invest in the people. Otherwise no matter how high the growth rate it will lose the elections - as happened to the BJP despite "shining India"
Above all only an independent judiciary will stop criminals from entering politics. At the moment they know that once they are part of the power structure they are safe from the courts. The NRO is a classic case in point which under Musharraf's pocket judges will absolve politicians of their crimes that includes plunder of the country's resources as well as assassinations and target killings. Once a Prime Minister or President are not above law only then can this country develop a governance system that will make it achieve its great potential.
What needs to be done is for all sections of the society - especially the students whose future is at stake, to demand the restoration of Chief Justice Iftikhar and a total boycott of the PCO judges. Until our demands are accepted we should agitate throughout the country. The APDM should immediately give a call to its workers to join the lawyers and the civil society in the streets.
And finally it brings me to Benazir and Maulana Fazal ur Rehman. They are the only two "opposition" leaders who are allowed to freely roam around. The former is even given protocol. Both of them have played a major role in strengthening Musharraf by undermining the opposition at every stage. Both have used the opposition to strengthen their bargaining position with the Government for their personal ends. Most regretfully neither has demanded the restoration of Chief Justice Iftikhar. The APDM should tell them that we have had enough of their "Noora Khushti". If they want to be part of the genuine opposition both must demand the restoration of Chief Justice Iftikhar and announce a street movement immediately. But they should not be allowed to sabotage the opposition movement for their personal gains again.