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Russia's hold over Crimea was seemingly finalized Monday after the government in Kiev ordered the withdrawal of all Ukrainian troops from the region. And Russian troops, meanwhile, successfully capturing the Feodosia naval base, completing their hold over all bases on the peninsula.
In an attempt to punish Russia for these actions, world leaders Monday announced the ouster of Russia from the G8 consortium. Leaders of the G7 countries--Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.S. and the UK--meeting at a nuclear security summit in The Hague revealed that an upcoming G8 summit in Sochi, Russia will be cancelled and that the group will be meeting in Brussels instead.
In a joint statement, dubbed the "The Hague Declaration," G7 leaders condemned Russia's actions over Ukraine and threatened to "intensify actions" against the country:
This clear violation of international law is a serious challenge to the rule of law around the world and should be a concern for all nations. In response to Russia's violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to demonstrate our determination to respond to these illegal actions, individually and collectively we have imposed a variety of sanctions against Russia and those individuals and entities responsible. We remain ready to intensify actions including coordinated sectoral sanctions that will have an increasingly significant impact on the Russian economy, if Russia continues to escalate this situation.
Meanwhile, reflecting the political flexing of world leaders over the crisis in Ukraine, media reports of troop build-ups and "war games" on both sides of the Russian border have enhanced the drama on the ground.
News outlets sounded the alarm after Tony Blinken, White House deputy national security adviser, speculated to CNN's Candy Crowley on Sunday that Russian troop build up along Ukraine's eastern border may signify preparations to mobilize.
"It's deeply concerning to see the Russian troop buildup along the border," Blinken said. "It creates the potential for incidents, for instability. It's likely that what they are trying to do is intimidate the Ukrainians. It's possible that they are preparing to move in."
Ukraine's interim leadership echoed these claims, as well. "The aim of Putin is not Crimea but all of Ukraine," National Security and Defence Council chief Andriy Parubiy told a mass rally in Kiev on Sunday. "His troops massed at the border are ready to attack at any moment."
Responding to the these accusations of an amassing force, the Russian defense ministery issued a statement that their troop presence "is in compliance with all international agreements limiting the number of troops in the border areas with Ukraine."
Mirroring the Russian build-up, news of U.S. "war games" in Poland and reports of NATO troop build up in Baltic and other eastern European states have contributed to the growing alarm in the region.
UK Prime Minister David Cameron told ITV News on Monday that, although he would not answer calls for the deployment of British troops, the UK is working with their NATO allies to bolster defense along neighboring Baltic states, which generally include Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
"I think what is important is that we send a very clear message to our NATO partners and allies that we believe in NATO and we believe in their security," Cameron said. "That's why, for instance, we're helping some of the Baltic states with their defense and their needs. That's what we should be doing and that's what we're very much committed to doing."
_____________________
Dear President Obama:

As you ponder your potential moves regarding President Vladimir V. Putin's annexation of Crimea (a large majority of its 2 million people are ethnic Russians), it is important to remember that whatever moral leverage you may have had in the court of world opinion has been sacrificed by the precedents set by previous American presidents who did not do what you say Mr. Putin should do - obey international law.
The need to abide by international law is your recent recurring refrain, often used in an accusatory context toward Mr. Putin's military entry in Crimea and its subsequent annexation, following a referendum in which Crimean voters overwhelmingly endorsed rejoining Russia. True, most Ukrainians and ethnic Tatars boycotted the referendum and there were obstacles to free speech. But even the fairest of referendums, under UN auspices, would have produced majority support for Russia's annexation.
Every day, presidential actions by you violate international law because they infringe upon national sovereignties with deadly drones, flyovers and secret forays by soldiers - to name the most obvious.
President Bush's criminal invasion and devastation of Iraq in 2003 violated international law and treaties initiated and signed by the United States (such as the Geneva Conventions and the UN Charter). What about your executive branch's war on Libya, now still in chaos, which was neither constitutionally declared, nor authorized by Congressional appropriations?
"Do as I say, not as I do," is hard to sell to Russians who are interpreting your words of protest as disingenuous. This is especially the case because Crimea, long under the rule of the Ottoman Empire, became part of Russia over 200 years ago. In 1954, Soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine, which was then part of the Soviet Union, out of sympathy for what Ukraine endured under the Nazi invasion and its atrocities. It mattered little then because both "socialist republics," Ukraine and Crimea, were part of the Soviet Union. However, it is not entirely clear whether Khrushchev fully complied with the Soviet constitution when he transferred Crimea to Ukraine.
Compare, by the way, the United States' seizure of Guantanamo from Cuba initially after the Spanish-American War, which was then retained after Cuba became independent over a century ago.
The Russians have their own troubles, of course, but they do have a legitimate complaint and fear about the United States' actions following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Led by President William Jefferson Clinton, the United States pushed for the expansion of the military alliance NATO to include the newly independent Eastern European countries. This was partly a business deal to get these countries to buy United States fighter aircrafts from Lockheed Martin and partly a needless provocation of a transformed adversary trying to get back on its feet.
As a student of Russian history and language at Princeton, I learned about the deep sensitivity of the Russian people regarding the insecurity of their Western Front. Hitler's attack on the Soviet Union took many millions of Russian lives. The prolonged Nazi siege of the city of Leningrad alone is estimated to have cost over 700,000 civilian lives, which is about twice the total number of United States soldiers killed in World War II.
The memories of that mass slaughter and destruction, and of other massacres and valiant resistance are etched deeply in Russian minds. The NATO provocation was only one of the West's arrogant treatments of post-Soviet Russia, pointed out in the writings of Russian specialist, NYU professor Stephen Cohen (see his pieces in The Nation here: https://www.thenation.com/authors/stephen-f-cohen). That sense of disrespect, coupled with the toppling of the elected pro-Russian President of Ukraine in February, 2014 (which was not lawful despite his poor record) is why Mr. Putin's absorption of Crimea and his history-evoking speech before the Parliament, was met with massive support in Russia even by many of those who have good reasons to not like his authoritarian government.
Now, you are facing the question of how far to go with sanctions against the Russian government, its economy and its ruling class. Welcome to globalization.
Russia is tightly intertwined with the European Union, as a seller and buyer of goods, services and assets, and to a lesser but significant degree with the United States government and its giant corporations such as oil and technology companies. Sanctions can boomerang, which would be far worse than just being completely ineffective in reversing the Russian annexation of Crimea.
As for sanctions deterring any unlikely future Russian moves westward into Ukraine, consider the following role reversal. If Russia moved for sanctions against the United States before Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen and other attacks, would that have deterred either you or George W. Bush from taking such actions? Of course not. Such an outcome, politically and domestically, would not be possible.
If you want continued Russian cooperation, as you do, on the critical Iranian and Syrian negotiations, ignore the belligerent baying pack of neocons who always want more United States wars, which they and their adult children avoid fighting themselves. Develop a coalition of economic support for Ukraine, with European nations, based on observable reforms of that troubled government. Sponsor a global conference on how to enforce international law as early as possible.
Drop the nonsense of evicting Russia from the G8 - a get-together forum of leaders. Get on with having the United States comply with international law, and our constitution on the way to ending the American Empire's interventions worldwide, as has been recommended by both liberal and conservative/libertarian lawmakers, along with much public opinion.
Concentrate on America, President Obama, whose long unmet necessities cry out from "sea to shining sea."
Sincerely,

Mikhail Bulgakov's "The Master and Margarita," a bitter satire of Soviet life at the height of Stalin's purges, captured the surrealist experience of living in a brutal totalitarianism. In the novel's world, lies are considered true and truth is considered seditious. Existence is a dark carnival of opportunism, unchecked state power, hedonism and terrorism.
Mikhail Bulgakov's "The Master and Margarita," a bitter satire of Soviet life at the height of Stalin's purges, captured the surrealist experience of living in a brutal totalitarianism. In the novel's world, lies are considered true and truth is considered seditious. Existence is a dark carnival of opportunism, unchecked state power, hedonism and terrorism. It is peopled with omnipotent secret police, wholesale spying and surveillance, show trials, censorship, mass arrests, summary executions and disappearances, along with famines, gulags and a state system of propaganda utterly unplugged from daily reality. This reality is increasingly becoming our own.

Throughout history, those who spoke the truth in totalitarian states--people such as Edward Snowden, Julian Assange and Chelsea Manning--have been silenced and persecuted and those who parroted back the lies and served the system have been rewarded with lives of luxury and debauchery. Bulgakov reminds us of this. In the midst of his story's madness, in which moral goodness is banished and only the amoral is celebrated, Satan holds a ball where Margarita, as queen, plays hostess to "kings, dukes, cavaliers, suicides, poisoners, gallows birds and procuresses, jailers, cardsharps, executioners, informers, traitors, madmen, detectives and corrupters of youth" who leap from coffins that fall out of the fireplace. The men wear tailcoats, and the women, who are naked, differ from each other only "by their shoes and the color of the feathers on their heads." "Scarlet-breasted parrots with green tails perched on lianas and hopping from branch to branch uttered deafening screeches of "Ecstasy! Ecstasy!' " As Johann Strauss leads the orchestra, revelers mingle in a cool ballroom set in a tropical forest.
In this bizarre world you flourish, are embraced by its fantasy life, only if the state decides you are worthy to exist--"No papers, no person."
The arbitrary and capricious power of the state permits it to determine the identity and worth of its people, including the writers and artists it officially anoints. When Behemoth and his companion, Korovyov, an ex-choirmaster, attempt to enter the restaurant at the headquarters of the state-sanctioned literary trade union--filled with careerists, propagandists, profiteers and state bureaucrats, along with their wives and mistresses--they are accosted at the entrance.
A pale bored citizeness in white socks and a white beret with a tassel was sitting on a bentwood chair at the corner entrance to the veranda, where an opening had been created in the greenery of the trellis. In front of her on a plain kitchen table lay a thick, office-style register in which, for reasons unknown, she was writing down the names of those entering the restaurant. It was this citizeness who stopped Korovyov and Behemoth.
"Your ID cards?" she asked. ...
"I beg a thousand pardons, but what ID cards?" asked a surprised Korovyov.
"Are you writers?" asked the woman in turn.
"Of course we are," replied Korovyov with dignity.
"May I see your ID's?" repeated the woman.
"My charming creature ..." began Korovyov, tenderly.
"I am not a charming creature," interrupted the woman.
"Oh, what a pity," said Korovyov with disappointment, and continued, "Well, then, if you do not care to be a charming creature, which would have been quite nice, you don't have to be. But, here's my point, in order to ascertain that Dostoevsky is a writer, do you really need to ask him for an ID? Just look at any five pages of any of his novels, and you will surely know, even without an ID, that you're dealing with a writer. Besides, I don't suppose that he ever had any ID! What do you think?"
Korovyov turned to Behemoth.
"I'll bet he didn't," replied the latter. ...
"You're not Dostoevsky," said the citizeness. ...
"Well, but how do you know, how do you know?" replied [Korovyov].
"Dostoevsky is dead," said the citizeness, but not very confidently.
"I protest!" exclaimed Behemoth hotly. "Dostoevsky is immortal!"
"Your ID's, citizens," said the citizeness.
Although the book, whose working title was "Satan in Moscow," was completed in 1940 it did not appear in print in uncensored form until the 1970s.
"The power structure is symbolized by its anonymity and omnipresence, by its mysterious nature, by its total knowledge against which there is no defense, by its ability to penetrate every space, by putting in an appearance at any hour of the day or night," Karl Schlogel wrote in his book "Moscow, 1937" in speaking of Bulgakov's portrayal of the organs of state security. "Investigating officials have no names; they are simply 'they.' The word 'arrest' is replaced by the sentences "We need to sort something out' or 'We need your signature here.' "
Thomas Mann in "The Magic Mountain," which takes place in a tuberculosis sanatorium in the Swiss Alps on the eve of World War I, also chronicles the malaise and sickness of a society in terminal moral decline: There no longer are any goals worth pursuing; death is more dignified than life; illness is more conducive to reflection than health. Joseph Roth in "Hotel Savoy" reaches the same conclusion. In Roth's novel, Gabriel Dan, an Austrian soldier released from a Serbian prisoner-of-war camp after World War I, finds sanctuary in a hotel that "promises water, soap, English style toilet, a lift, maids in white caps." In the grand ballrooms the rich and powerful gorge themselves in hedonistic revelry. But on the upper floors Dan discovers desperate, impoverished debtors, bankrupt gamblers, failed revolutionaries, chorus girls, clowns, dancers, the terminally ill and dreamers. Once those in the upper garrets are fleeced of their money and possessions they are tossed into the street.
Roth's protagonist says:
The hotel no longer appealed to me: neither the stifling laundry, nor the gruesomely benevolent lift-boy nor the three floors of prisoners. This Hotel Savoy was like the world. Brilliant light shone out from it and splendor glittered from its seven storeys, but poverty made its home in its high places, and those who lived on high were in the depths, buried in airy graves, and the graves were in layers above the comfortable rooms of the well nourished guests sitting down below, untroubled by the flimsy coffins overhead.
The moral order, like our own, is upside-down.
Bulgakov, Mann and Roth understood that here is no real political ideology among decayed ruling elites. They knew that political debate and ideological constructs for these elites is absurdist theater, a species of entertainment for the masses. They warned that once societies enter terminal decay, in the end it is the blunt forces of censorship, relentless propaganda, coercion, fear and finally terror that keep a subdued population in check. Those who hold power in such systems are thieves who run a vast kleptocracy.
The rise of criminal elites is global. Vladimir Putin is a megalomaniac and a thug who is filling his personal coffers while he is the leader of Russia, and Barack Obama, who has more polish and sophistication, will fill his own pockets, as did the Clintons, with tens of millions of dollars as soon as he leaves office. The banks and corporations for which Obama works are as criminal and corrupt as the Central Bank of Russia, which calculates that perhaps two-thirds of the $56 billion that left Russia in 2012 might have been from money laundering, drug trafficking, tax fraud or kickbacks. The circular system of patronage and crime that exists worldwide varies from region to region only by degrees and style.
The Western political and financial elites, Putin knows, will not touch him. He and they are in the same decadent oligarchic class. They hold the same values. Europe depends on Russia for 40 percent of its natural gas, most of which passes through Ukraine. European bankers and corporations have no intention of jeopardizing that flow, or any current or potential trade deals. Corporate profit is the driving engine of foreign policy. Our elites do not care about human rights or civil liberties, not to mention the illegality of pre-emptive war, any more than Putin. Ask the people of Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen or Somalia how much moral authority the United States has to denounce the violation of the territorial integrity of a sovereign state. Ask those in our black sites and offshore penal colonies how much moral authority we have to denounce arbitrary detention and torture. Ask the 1.3 million people who lost their extended unemployment benefits in December or those who saw food stamp cutbacks reduce their spending by $90 a month how much moral authority there is left in our corporate state.
Our elites have established the most efficient system of mass surveillance in history. They have abolished most of our civil liberties. They have trashed our economy for their own personal gain. They have looted state treasuries and thrown working men and women aside. Satan is again holding a great ball. You are not invited. I am not invited. Only the gangsters will be there. Putin will be an honored guest. So will Obama.
WASHINGTON - A familiar clutch of hawks have taken wing over the rapidly developing crisis in Ukraine, as neo-conservatives and other interventionists claim that President Barack Obama's preference for diplomacy over military action invited Russian aggression.

At stake in the current crisis, according to these right-wing critics, are not only Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, but also Washington's "credibility" as a global superpower and the perpetuation by the U.S. and its western allies of the post-Cold War international order.
Some right-wing commentators, such as Michael Auslin of the neo-conservative American Enterprise Institute (AEI), which played a major role in drumming up support for the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, have even compared Russian President Vladimir Putin's moves to occupy the Crimean peninsula to Adolf Hitler's absorption of Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland as a result of the notorious Munich agreement in 1938.
"The toxic brew of negative perceptions of Western/liberal military capability and political will is rapidly undermining the post-1945 order around the world," he wrote on the Forbes magazine website Monday.
"One can only assume that China, Iran, and North Korea are watching Crimea just as closely as Putin watched Washington's reactions to East and South China Sea territorial disputes, Pyongyang's nuclear provocations, and Syria's civil war," according to Auslin, echoing a line of attack against Obama that has become a leitmotiv among his fellow interventionists.
"(T)here is more than (Russian Prime Minister Vladimir) Putin to think about," according to Elliott Abrams, a leading neo-conservative who served as George W. Bush's top Middle East aide, wrote Monday on the National Review website.
"Tyrants in places from Tehran to Beijing will also be wondering about the cost of violating international law and threatening the peace and stability of neighbors. What will China do in neighboring seas, or Iran do in its tiny neighbor Bahrain, if actions like Putin's go without a response?" he asked.
As yet there have been few voices in favour of taking any military action, although both the lead editorial in Monday's Wall Street Journal and Freedom House President David Kramer called for Obama to deploy ships from the U.S. Sixth Fleet into the Black Sea, and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham called for reviving Bush-era plans to erect new missile defence systems along Russia's European periphery.
But the president, who spent 90 minutes on the phone with Putin Saturday in an unsuccessful effort to persuade the Russian leaders to send Russian troops in Crimea back to their barracks, is being pressed hard to take a series of tough actions against Moscow.
Secretary of State John Kerry, who traveled to Kiev Tuesday in a show of support for its new government-- including one billion dollars in U.S. aid--as part of a much larger Western economic package to be led by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), listed a number of moves Sunday that Washington has already taken or is actively considering adopting.
In addition to coordinating international - particularly European - condemnation of Putin's moves against Ukraine, Kerry also said Washington had cancelled upcoming bilateral trade talks and is considering boycotting the G8 summit that Putin is scheduled to host in Sochi in June, if not suspending or formally expelling Russia from that body.
If Russia doesn't "step back" from its effective takeover of Crimea, he said Sunday, "there could even be, ultimately, asset freezes (and) visa bans" against specific individuals and economic enterprises associated with the current crisis. He called Russia's move "an incredible act of aggression."
"We are examining a whole series of steps -- economic, diplomatic -- that will isolate Russia and will have a negative impact on Russia's economy and its status in the world.," Obama himself warned Monday during a joint press appearance with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
At the same time, however, he stressed that he was still looking for a diplomatic way out of the crisis - possibly with the help of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) that reportedly began sending monitors to the Ukraine Monday evening -- which could reassure Moscow regarding the protection and welfare of Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine and Crimea in whose interests Moscow has justified its actions to date.
The administration and most analysts here agreed that Washington's freedom of action in reacting to the current crisis must necessarily be coordinated with its European allies, some of which, including the continent's economic powerhouse, Germany, are strongly disinclined to escalate matters. Germany gets about one-third of its gas supplies from Russia and has long considered a cooperative relationship with Moscow to be critical to maintaining stability in central Europe.
Such constraints clearly frustrate the hawks here, even as some of them, such as Sen. John McCain, acknowledged Monday that Washington had no ready military option and would, in any event, have to coordinate closely with Brussels as the crisis unfolds.
But, speaking before the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), McCain also blamed Obama's alleged timidity - particularly his failure to carry out his threat to take military action against Syria last September - for the situation. "(T)his is the ultimate result of a feckless foreign policy in which nobody believes in America's strength anymore," McCain said to thunderous applause from the hawkish audience whom Netanyahu will address Tuesday.
Indeed, Israel-centred neo-conservatives, for whom Obama's "weakness" and "appeasement" in dealing with perceived adversaries have become a mantra over the past five years, have been quick to use the Ukraine crisis to argue for toughening Washington's position in the Middle East, in particular.
"In the brutal world of global power politics, Ukraine is in particular a casualty of Mr. Obama's failure to enforce his 'red line' on Syria," according to the Journal's editorial writers, who stressed that "(a)dversaries and allies in Asia and the Middle East will be watching President Obama's response now. ...Iran is counting on U.S. weakness in nuclear talks."
"Like Putin, the ayatollahs likely see our failure to act in Syria ... as a sign that they can drive a hard bargain indeed with us over their nuclear weapons program, giving up nearly nothing and getting sanctions relief," wrote Abrams on his Council on Foreign Relations blog over the weekend.
"And now they see us reacting (so far) to Russian aggression in Ukraine, sending troops across the border into the Crimea, with tut-tutting," he added in a call for Congress - likely to be echoed by Netanyahu here this week -- to pass stalled legislation imposing new sanctions against Tehran.
"That makes about as much sense ...as saying that a proper response to a terrorist act by an Afghanistan-based group is to launch a war against Iraq," replied Paul Pillar, the intelligence community's top analyst for the Near East and South Asia from 2000 to 2005, on his nationalinterest.com blog Monday.

Were he talking about the country's economic plight he would have a point. Instead, along with much of the US and European media, he was over-dramatising developments in the east, where Russian speakers are understandably alarmed after the new Kiev authorities scrapped a law allowing Russian as an official language in their areas. They see it as proof that the anti-Russian ultra-nationalists from western Ukraine who were the dominant force in last month's insurrection still control it. Eastern Ukrainians fear similar tactics of storming public buildings could be used against their elected officials.
Kerry's rush to punish Russia and Nato's decision to respond to Kiev's call by holding a meeting of member states' ambassadors in Brussels on Sunday were mistakes. Ukraine is not part of the alliance, so none of the obligations of common defence come into play. Nato should refrain from interfering in Ukraine by word or deed. The fact that it insists on getting engaged reveals the elephant in the room: underlying the crisis in Crimea and Russia's fierce resistance to potential changes is Nato's undisguised ambition to continue two decades of expansion into what used to be called "post-Soviet space", led by Bill Clinton and taken up by successive administrations in Washington. At the back of Pentagon minds, no doubt, is the dream that a US navy will one day replace the Russian Black Sea fleet in the Crimean ports of Sevastopol and Balaclava.
Since independence, every poll in Ukraine has shown a majority against Nato membership, yet one after another the elites who ran the country until 2010 and who are now back in charge ignored the popular will. Seduced by Nato's largesse and the feeling of being part of a hi-tech global club, they took part in joint military exercises and even sent Ukrainian troops to Iraq and Afghanistan.
The deposed Viktor Yanukovych, for all his incompetence, corruption and abuse of power, was the first president to oppose Nato membership in his election campaign and then persuade parliament to make non-alignment the cornerstone of the country's security strategy, on the pattern of Finland, Ireland and Sweden. Nato refused to accept it. As recently as 1 February, before the latest crisis, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the empire-building secretary general, told a security conference in Munich: "Ukraine must have the freedom to choose its own path without external pressure." The implication was clear: if only it were not for those beastly Russians, Ukraine would be one of us. Had Rasmussen said: "Ukraine has chosen nonalignment and we respect that choice," he would have been wiser.
It is not too late to show some wisdom now. Vladimir Putin's troop movements in Crimea, which are supported by most Russians, are of questionable legality under the terms of the peace and friendship treaty that Russia signed with Ukraine in 1997. But their illegality is considerably less clear-cut than that of the US-led invasion of Iraq, or of Afghanistan, where the UN security council only authorised the intervention several weeks after it had happened. And Russia's troop movements can be reversed if the crisis abates. That would require the restoration of the language law in eastern Ukraine and firm action to prevent armed groups of anti-Russian nationalists threatening public buildings there.
The Russian-speaking majority in the region is as angry with elite corruption, unemployment and economic inequality as people in western Ukraine. But it also feels beleaguered and provoked, with its cultural heritage under existential threat. Responsibility for eliminating those concerns lies not in Washington, Brussels or Moscow, but solely in Kiev.

As the events in Ukraine have sent world leaders scurrying to develop and spread narratives that serve their own interests, the complexities of the geopolitical and economic implications--whether from a Russian, American, European or Ukrainian perspective--have become elusive to those trying to understand exactly what's going on inside the country.
While the U.S. media is obsessed with what it likes to describe as the belligerence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the political implications the crisis is having on Obama's foreign policy legacy, much of what is lost in the coverage is a more critical look at how Cold War history, austerity economics, and deep mistrust have emerged to make the situation in Ukraine, as one historian puts it, "the worst history of our lifetime."
What follows is a brief roundup of some of the contours missing from the surface coverage by voices that take a tougher and more in-depth look at the still unfolding situation.
NATO Encroachment, Not Russian Aggression
For his part, Stephen Cohen, professor emeritus at New York University and Princeton University who has long focused on Russia, says what is constantly missing from most mainstream coverage in the U.S. is the very real perception by many in Russia who see a European takeover of Ukraine as a direct military encroachment by the NATO powers on their western border.
This, he says, may be lost on an American audience, but the seriousness of it is not lost on those who know the history of War World I and the bloodshed along the Russian front after War World II that led to the Cold War.
Appearing on CNN this weekend, Cohen told viewers that it is U.S. and European policy in recent years, not what Putin is now doing, that deserves the most severe criticism. He said:
We are witnessing as we talk the making possibly of the worst history of our lifetime. We are watching the descending of a new cold war divide between west and east, only this time, it is not in far away Berlin, it's right on Russia's borders through the historical civilization in Ukraine. It's a crisis of historic magnitude. If you ask how we got in it, how we got into the crisis, and how therefore do we get out, it is time to stop asking why Putin - why Putin is doing this or that, but ask about the American policy, and the European Union policy that led to this moment.
Asked to elaborate, Cohen continued:
I don't know if you your listeners or views remember George Kennan. He was considered [a] great strategic thinker about Russia among American diplomats but he warned when we expanded NATO [under Bill Clinton], that this was the most fateful mistake of American foreign policy and that it would lead to a new Cold War. George lived to his hundreds, died a few years ago, but his truth goes marching on. The decision to move NATO beginning in the 90's continuing under Bush and continuing under Obama, is right now on Russia's borders.
And if you want to know for sure, and I have spent a lot of time in Moscow, if you want to know what the Russian power elite thinks Ukraine is about, it is about bringing it into NATO. One last point, that so-called economic partnership that Yanukovych, the elected president of Ukraine did not sign, and that set off the streets - the protests in the streets in November, which led to this violence in and confrontation today, that so-called economic agreement included military clauses which said that Ukraine by signing this so called civilization agreement had to abide by NATO military policy. This is what this is about from the Russian point of view, the ongoing western march towards post Soviet Russia.
Jonathan Steele, writing for Guardian, argues that both the US and the EU need to ratchet down both their rhetoric and threats. He contends the only real solution to the turmoil in Ukraine is one which respects the rights and aspirations of all Ukrainians. Matching Cohen's analysis in some way regarding NATO's encroachment, Steele writes:
Both John Kerry's threats to expel Russia from the G8 and the Ukrainian government's plea for Nato aid mark a dangerous escalation of a crisis that can easily be contained if cool heads prevail. Hysteria seems to be the mood in Washington and Kiev, with the new Ukrainian prime minister claiming, "We are on the brink of disaster" as he calls up army reserves in response to Russian military movements in Crimea.
Were he talking about the country's economic plight he would have a point. Instead, along with much of the US and European media, he was over-dramatising developments in the east, where Russian speakers are understandably alarmed after the new Kiev authorities scrapped a law allowing Russian as an official language in their areas. They see it as proof that the anti-Russian ultra-nationalists from western Ukraine who were the dominant force in last month's insurrection still control it. Eastern Ukrainians fear similar tactics of storming public buildings could be used against their elected officials.
Kerry's rush to punish Russia and Nato's decision to respond to Kiev's call by holding a meeting of member states' ambassadors in Brussels today were mistakes. Ukraine is not part of the alliance, so none of the obligations of common defence come into play. Nato should refrain from interfering in Ukraine by word or deed. The fact that it insists on getting engaged reveals the elephant in the room: underlying the crisis in Crimea and Russia's fierce resistance to potential changes is Nato's undisguised ambition to continue two decades of expansion into what used to be called "post-Soviet space", led by Bill Clinton and taken up by successive administrations in Washington. At the back of Pentagon minds, no doubt, is the dream that a US navy will one day replace the Russian Black Sea fleet in the Crimean ports of Sevastopol and Balaclava.
As for Russia's involvement, it should at least be seen in light of its own interests and the legality of the military intervention. Even if not justified, says Steele, it must be compared to that of other world powers who now wave their finger at Moscow with such hypocrisy. He concludes:
Vladimir Putin's troop movements in Crimea, which are supported by most Russians, are of questionable legality under the terms of the peace and friendship treaty that Russia signed with Ukraine in 1997. But their illegality is considerably less clear-cut than that of the US-led invasion of Iraq, or of Afghanistan, where the UN security council only authorised the intervention several weeks after it had happened. And Russia's troop movements can be reversed if the crisis abates. That would require the restoration of the language law in eastern Ukraine and firm action to prevent armed groups of anti-Russian nationalists threatening public buildings there.
The Russian-speaking majority in the region is as angry with elite corruption, unemployment and economic inequality as people in western Ukraine. But it also feels beleaguered and provoked, with its cultural heritage under existential threat. Responsibility for eliminating those concerns lies not in Washington, Brussels or Moscow, but solely in Kiev.
In Crimea: 'Not separatists... Federalists.'
Another aspect that has created controversy is whether the Russian military presence in Crimea and the rejection of the new Kiev government in other places in the south and east of the country is pretext for a secessionist movement within those provinces. Others worry that the political split between east and west could lead to all out civil war or a regional conflagration with the Ukraine army in the west, backed by the EU and US, facing off against Russian-backed forces in the east.
But Nicolai Petro, a professor of politics at the University of Rhode Island and currently a Fulbright research scholar in Ukraine, says those opposing the takeover in Kiev are not interested in splitting Ukraine, but instead are concerned about losing key rights, including their ability to retain their Russian heritage under new legal edicts. And, says Petro, those with close economic ties to Russia seeing those interests subjugated by a government beholden to European interests does little to inspire confidence in the emerging government that has taken control in Kiev.
Despite those worries, however, those characterized as 'Pro-Russian' do not want to secede, argues Petro in The Nation. He explains:
The regions in the South and East that oppose the [new government in Kiev] are not demanding to leave Ukraine. [...] They seek a more formal recognition of their rights. A popular slogan at a recent anti-Maidan meeting in [eastern city of] Kharkiv was 'We are not separatists. We are federalists.'
Even in Crimea, the government recently put in place by local 'self-defense forces' has asked only for a referendum, citing the need to guarantee its autonomy 'under any changes in central authority or the Constitution of Ukraine.' The referendum question in fact stipulates that Crimea 'is part of Ukraine on the basis of agreements and accords.'
In this context being 'pro-Russian' does not mean joining Russia. It means speaking, worshiping, and going to school in your own language, in your own country -- Ukraine.
Whose Crony-Capitalism?
Lastly, informed observers note that what's really driving the crisis in Ukraine is about the country's faltering economic conditions more than anything else. What should not be lost, they suggest, is the fact that Ukraine--guided by the interim government in Kiev--is now on the verge of taking on billions of dollars in public debt by accepting financial bailout packages from the International Monetary Fund and European banks.
The Wall Street Journal reports Monday that an IMF team is en route to Kiev to begin discussions with the interim government there over the possible details of such a financial package.
As the economist Michael Roberts noted recently, "the people of Ukraine [were] left with Hobson's choice: either go with KGB-led crony capitalism from Russia or go with equally corrupt pro-European 'democrats'".
Roberts continued:
The collapse of the pro-Russian regime of Yanukovych is a big defeat for Russia national interests. Putin sees Ukraine as a satellite of Russian crony capitalism. As he once told the then-US President George Bush: "Ukraine is not even a state". In public, Mr Putin can't bring himself to call Ukraine anything but a "krai," the Russian word for territory. He was determined to stop Ukraine coming under the wing of German-led European capitalism. But his man, Yanukovych could not deliver.
Now the pro-European bourgeois leaders in Kiev will prostrate themselves before the EU and IMF in order obtain 'aid'. These politicians are just as much in the hands of Ukraine's billionaire oligarchs as the ousted pro-Russian government were. As the German journal, Der Spiegel has explained, two oligarchs, Akhmetov and Firtash, between them control over 90 MPs in the Ukraine parliament. Akhmetov is worth $15 billion and is head of the holdings company System Capital Management, which controls more than 100 companies with some 300,000 employees. They include metallurgical and pipe factories, banks, real estate firms, mobile phone enterprises and a large media company. He is the de-facto ruler of Donbass, the home of Ukrainian heavy industry and owns the football team Shakhtar Donetsk.
These oligarchs soon realised well before the current crisis that Yanukovych would not be around for much longer. They began carefully looking around for alternatives.
But as Andrej Nikolaidis, a Bosnian who says the situation in Ukraine reminds him all too much about what happened in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990's, says in a piece in the Guardian on Monday: "When common people find themselves in the middle of a geopolitical storm - as the citizens of Ukraine do now, or my family back then in Bosnia - the dilemma "is this glass half empty or half full?" is irrelevant: soon, it will be broken."
And Nikolaidis continues with a warning:
In their struggle to overcome Russian occupation and survive all the Trojan horses from the institutions of global capitalism, it is to be hoped that people in Ukraine learned a thing from the war in Bosnia - that a deus ex machina from the west will never land, solving the situation and leading them into the promised land of the EU.
Bosnia today is a poor and divided country, even more so than it was back in 1992. Former soldiers, hungry and sick, are gathering and protesting. "While we were bleeding, they were stealing," says one. In the past, they were ready to die for their nation and its bright future. Some Bosnians saw their future under the Bosnian and EU flag, others under the Croatian and EU flag, and others still under the flag of The Great Serbia. Lots of flags, but only one poverty for all.
What's needed in that context, according to Petro's assessment, is a diplomatic and economic solution that caters to the interests of all Ukrainans, not one driven by discussions that take place "in New York, Brussels or Moscow."
"The partners that need to resolve their differences are all inside Ukraine," he says, "and the issue they need to address is full equality between the two major cultural components of Ukrainian identity, Ukrainian and Russian. Only this can provide the basis for a common vision for the future shared across the entire land."
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According to a Guardian report published Tuesday, the G8's New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition initiative, supported by the Obama administration, has connected African leaders with major agribusiness corporations in an effort to map out a plan for agricultural development on the African continent in the coming years, which will loosen export and tax laws, award "huge chunks of land" for private investment and change seed laws to benefit international corporations and their GMO products.
In the "New Alliance" talks, agricultural giants such as Syngenta and Cargill have been granted "unprecedented access to decision-makers over the past two years," the Guardian reports, while small scale farmers are increasingly shut out of the process.
In a press release late last year, the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa (AFSA), a Pan-African platform of networks and farmer organizations, warned against such policies, which are becoming increasingly common on the continent:
Africa's diversity and knowledge systems are being threatened by corporate and genetically modified (GM) seeds, agro-chemicals, resource grabs and laws that prevent farmers from freely using, sharing or selling their seed.
These threats come from amongst others, the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) and the G8 "New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition" that strongly promote the interests of multinational seed, fertilizer and agro-chemical companies at the expense of the rights and interests of smallholder farmers.
"It will be like colonialism," Zitto Kabwe, the chairman of the Tanzanian parliament's public accounts committee told the Guardian. "Farmers will not be able to farm until they import, linking farmers to [the] vulnerability of international prices. Big companies will benefit. We should not allow that."
The initiative will change seed, land and tax laws in at least 10 different African countries with over 200 policy commitments coming from African leaders.
Governments are committing to investors "completely behind the screen" with "no long-term view about the future of smallholder farmers," Olivier de Schutter, the UN special rapporteur on the right to food, told the Guardian. "There's a struggle for land, for investment, for seed systems, and first and foremost there's a struggle for political influence."
"It will be like colonialism. Farmers will not be able to farm until they import, linking farmers to [the] vulnerability of international prices. Big companies will benefit. We should not allow that." - Zitto Kabwe, chairman of the Tanzanian parliament's public accounts committee
As AFSA and other critics have warned, development policies based on multinational agricultural industry forces small scale farmers to depend on imported and genetically modified seeds.
"It clearly puts seed production and distribution in the hands of companies," said Million Belay, the head (AFSA). "The trend is for companies to say they cannot invest in Africa without new laws ... Yes, agriculture needs investment, but that shouldn't be used as an excuse to bring greater control over farmers' lives."
"More than any other time in history, the African food production system is being challenged. More than any other time in history outside forces are deciding the future of our farming systems," said Belay.
Speaking to a group from the AFSA in August in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (one of the countries targeted in the "New Alliance" plan), food sovereignty and seed activist Vandana Shiva warned against the initiative, pulling from lessons--learned the hard way--in India.
Shiva stated:
The G8 issue--the New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition--it's not just the biggest corporations, in every sector, targeting food as the biggest opportunity but every government of the world. If you want to look at where the G8 will go, it's exactly where India went in 2005--where all the companies from seed to trade joined up to get the U.S. government to write an agreement with the government of India and they came in an integrated chain.
I've seen that they've created a whole alliance of the corporations for spreading misinformation. What they are bringing to you in terms of the Green Revolution, we've got all the outcome. So don't let them sell it to you as they sold it to India because we have the lessons.
Bhopal: 30,000 dead; Endosulfan: 1,000 dead; cancer train leaving the Green Revolution area of Punjab--a whole train daily full of cancer patients. And this is going to be worse here, because they introduced the Green Revolution in India in the Punjab, the land of five rivers, but they will introduce it here everywhere - including dry lands. And it's going to be a disaster like you can't imagine.
Watch video of Shiva's talk below:
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At the behest of the U.S. National Security Agency, Canada engaged in global spying operations, including setting up spy posts, CBC News reports.
The collaborative efforts of the two nations' spy agencies covered surveillance in "approximately 20 high-priority countries."
The NSA's Canadian counterpart, the Communications Security Establishment Canada (CSEC), "offers resources for advanced collection, processing and analysis, and has opened covert sites at the request of NSA," CBC reports the NSA document as stating.
The newest surveillance revelation made possible by Edward Snowden shows "co-operative efforts" between the CSEC and NSA that go beyond those of the "Five Eyes" (Canada, the U.S,, the UK, Australia and New Zealnd) partnership.
NSA and CSEC operatives not only shared information but worked inside each other's agency. "Co-operative efforts include the exchange of liaison officers and integrees," the document states.
CBC adds that the leaked document, dated April 2013, reveals that
the NSA also supplies much of the computer hardware and software CSEC uses for encryption, decoding and other state-of-the-art essentials of electronic spying needed for "collection, processing and analytic efforts."
In return, the NSA acknowledges that its Canadian counterpart provides the partnership with its own "cryptographic products, cryptanalysis, technology and software."
Finally, the U.S. agency says CSEC has increased its investment in research and development projects "of mutual interest."
Previous reporting based on Snowden leaks also showed collaborative efforts between the NSA and CSEC, including surveillance during the 2010 G8 and G20 summits in Toronto, as well as "economic espionage" on oil and gas companies in Brazil.
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The U.S. National Security Agency carried out widespread surveillance during the 2010 G8 and G20 summits in Toronto, spying that was "closely co-ordinated" with Canada, CBC News reported Wednesday.
It is the latest in a series of revelations on NSA activities made possible by leaks from whistleblower Edward Snowden.
CBC reports:
The briefing notes, stamped "Top Secret," show the U.S. turned its Ottawa embassy into a security command post during a six-day spying operation by the National Security Agency while U.S. President Barack Obama and 25 other foreign heads of government were on Canadian soil in June of 2010.
[...]
Notably, the secret NSA briefing document describes part of the U.S. eavesdropping agency's mandate at the Toronto summit as "providing support to policymakers."
Specific targets were not revealed.
A note within the documents states that the Toronto surveillance operations were "closely co-ordinated with the Canadian partner," the Communications Security Establishment Canada (CSEC), which CBC describes as having become "a formidable and sophisticated surveillance outlet."
Previous reporting on documents leaked by Snowden showed that the CSEC shared with the NSA information it obtained through "economic espionage" on oil and gas companies in Brazil.
In addition to the 2010 G20 summit being the target of spying, other documents leaked by Snowden revealed that the British government spied on delegates at the 2009 G20.
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David Cameron's claims simply don't add up to a coherent explanation as to why "more with less" - perma-austerity - is a policy worth pursuing.
First of all, he insisted that "the biggest single threat to the cost of living in this country is if our budget deficit and debts get out of control again". Yet while the deficit rose to 11.2% of GDP in 2010, the markets that fund British debt never once thought the situation "out of control". Quite the contrary occurred as the interest payments due on UK bonds have gone steadily down since 2006, and have only risen now, when the UK is supposedly in recovery. A much more likely culprit for the drop in living standards is the fall in British real wages of over 5% since 2010 coupled with high price inflation, but that doesn't fit with the story of "out of control" spending needing to be reined in for the common good.
Second, when you have a deficit, you can either raise taxes or cut spending to fill the gap, and the coalition have favoured the latter. And because of these efforts British government debt has gone up, not down, despite the cuts, from 52.3% of GDP in 2009 to 90.7% in 2013. This is hardly a surprise given that exactly this same pattern of cuts leading to more debt as the underlying economy shrinks has been the story throughout the Eurozone too.
Given this, you might think that finding some new tax revenue to balance the books is a good idea. The prime minister seemed to agree on Monday when he applauded the G8's Lough Erne declaration that will "ensure companies pay their taxes". Then, almost in the same breath, he announced that the UK would cut corporation tax to 20%, "the lowest in the G20" - thereby copying the growth model of such dynamic economies as Ireland and Latvia.
Third, if what got us all this debt in the first place was a "too big to fail" banking system that was bailed out at taxpayer expense, you would expect the government to make sure that we don't "simply try and rebuild the same type of economy we had before the crash", as the prime minister put it in his speech. But of course, quite the opposite has happened. The government has deliberately stoked another London-centred housing bubble just in time for re-election using a right to buy scheme that basically gives anyone that qualifies their own personal Fannie and Freddie mortgage guarantee. Meanwhile, British banks are bigger than ever and are expected to grow bigger still.
Finally, the point of all this effort, according to the prime minister, is to engineer "a fundamental cultural change in our country" that is necessary to foster greater innovation. Yet in the same speech Cameron lauded British universities, British genetics, British material science and British microelectronics as "the envy of the world". But if the UK has all this, why would you need such a radical cultural change?
So if the contents of the speech and the arguments for perma-austerity don't add up, why then double down on the policy?
One answer is to follow the money in terms of who benefits and who loses from such a policy.
We need to remember that the crisis that brought us here was a private sector crisis. Their debts landed on the balance sheet of the public sector through bank bailouts, recapitalisations and unlimited quantitative easing. In other words, taxpayers bailed bankers and the price was a ballooning deficit.
That deficit took the form of what finance-types call a "class-specific put option". A "put" option is contract where the buyer of the contract has the right, but not the obligation, to re-sell the contract at a future point, while the seller must buy back the contract at a pre-determined price and time. In other words, the seller is selling insurance and the buyer is purchasing the right to cash it in.
Now why is this a "class specific" put option? Over the past 35 years the UK has become an increasingly unequal country, with those holding appreciating assets (mainly housing in the south) and high incomes (mainly financial salaries and bonuses) reaping most of the gains. These are also the folks that cashed in that insurance policy when the banks failed - they got their assets bailed. The balance due for this cashed-out insurance policy is still either tax increases - which as we saw with the fate of the 50% income tax rate and heard on Monday with regard to corporations, is off the table - or more cuts to government spending. So who pays?
The nice thing about cutting government spending in a highly unequal society, at least for the coalition, is that it doesn't affect those with most of the assets and income. These folks don't rely on government services, and their assets and incomes are, thanks to government policy, on the rise once again. They are also the folks that fund elections and show up to vote.
Perhaps the real message of Cameron's speech is then the following? If austerity doesn't work, just pump up the assets of those who matter and pass the cost on to those who don't through spending cuts since they will not vote for you anyway. Then tell tall tales about "out of control" spending habits, despite the evidence, while assiduously avoiding taxing your constituents. This used to be called class politics. Maybe it will once again be recognised for what it really is, even without the gold chains and the throne in the room as a clue for the uninitiated.