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The findings mean global temperatures are on track to surpass 1.5°C above preindustrial levels before 2030.
Nearly a week into President Donald Trump's illegal war on Iran that is likely to increase climate-warming emissions, new research has found that the pace of human-caused global heating has accelerated over the past 10 years.
The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters on Friday, concluded that global heating had nearly doubled from a rate of less than 0.2°C a decade from 1970-2015 to 0.35°C between 2015-25. This would put global temperatures on track to surpass 1.5°C above preindustrial levels before 2030.
"Warming proceeding faster is not unexpected by climate models, but it is a cause of concern and shows how insufficient the efforts to slow and eventually stop global warming under the Paris Climate Accord have so far been," study authors Stefan Rahmstorf and G. Foster wrote.
Scientists had long suspected that global warming was speeding up, given that the past three years were the three hottest on record. Yet previous studies had not been able to find statistically significant evidence of acceleration. The new study removed the natural variability from solar variations, volcanic eruptions, and El Niño from the data, which revealed a statistically significant speedup.
“How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how rapidly we reduce global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to zero."
It follows a study from 2025 that found a smaller increase of 0.27°C per decade from 2015-24.
“Either way, this represents a significant increase in the rate of warming,” Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth and a co-author on the earlier study, told The Guardian. “[This] should be worrying as the world hurtles toward crossing 1.5°C later this decade.”
Whatever the rate of increase, the solution, from a scientific perspective, is clear.
“How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how rapidly we reduce global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to zero,” Rahmstorf, a Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research scientist, told The Guardian.
Yet the findings come at a time when emissions look set only to increase, as the US launches an oil-fueled war on Iran that risks drawing other major military powers into a greater conflict.
"The outbreak of any war is bad news for the climate, just as the election of politicians hostile to climate action is," Mark Hertsgaard, Covering Climate Now executive director and co-founder, and Giles Trendle, former managing director of Al Jazeera English, wrote in a newsletter on Thursday. "The climate implications of this new war are not the center of attention at the moment, but they are essential context for understanding what’s at stake. At a time when civilization is hurtling toward irreversible climate breakdown, to overlook the climate consequences of three of the deadliest militaries on Earth going to war would be journalistic malpractice."
War itself increases greenhouse gas emissions. Studies have found that Russia's invasion of Ukraine emitted as much in its first two years as the annual emissions of the Netherlands, while Israel's genocide in Gaza emitted as much in its first four months as each of the 135 lowest-emitting nations in a year.
The Conflict and Environment Observatory observed 120 incidents of environmental harm during the first three days of the Iran conflict, and noted that attacks on oil and gas infrastructure had global implications:
There are also consequences for the global environment through changes in greenhouse gas emissions. Attacks on oil and gas sites will release methane, carbon dioxide, and other greenhouse gasses, but the curtailment of production—as has occurred with Qatari LNG [liquefied natural gas], oil production in Iraqi Kurdistan, and Israeli offshore gas—does not necessarily reduce emissions. Instead energy price signals can lead to short term substitution, as well as more complex downstream energy supply changes over longer timeframes.
Fossil fuels are also required to power the machinery that makes war possible.
"What’s beyond dispute is that this war could not be fought without oil," Hertsgaard and Trendle wrote. "The aircraft carriers, jet planes, and the myriad support systems they require gobble immense quantities of fossil fuels. Which helps explain why the US Department of Defense is the largest institutional emitter of greenhouse gases globally."
There is also the speculation that control of fossil fuels is one motivation for the war itself, given that Iran has the world's third-largest reserve of oil. While Trump has not included oil in his incoherent word salad of war aims, as he did when he kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, climate advocate Bill McKibben pointed out that members of US oil industry have said that they would rather develop Iran's oil than Venezuela's, as its industry is more "structurally sound."
"Europe, Asia, and other regions whose energy costs skyrocket because of this reckless escalation by the Trump administration are reminded, yet again, that fossil fuels are volatile, insecure, and expensive."
"The military attacks on Iran are not about peace and democracy, but rather about sowing fear, bloodshed, and despair as the US attempts to further destabilize the region and secure access to profitable natural resources that it wants to control," the Climate Justice Alliance said in a statement. "This is not surprising given recent foreign policy actions taken by the Trump administration in Venezuela and Cuba, and our ongoing history of engaging in coups, occupations, and endless wars to control resource-rich countries, especially for oil and gas."
Yet, at the same time, the war is already offering an object lesson in the dangers of relying on fossil fuels—for everyone except fossil fuel CEOs. The war could disrupt markets such that profits soar for Big Oil and liquefied natural gas companies while ordinary people suddenly find themselves struggling to pay gas or heating bills.
"Iran is in the middle of one of the world’s most important energy corridors," Lorne Stockman, Oil Change International research director, told Common Dreams. "Roughly 20% of global petroleum flows through the Strait of Hormuz, so when military escalation disrupts that route, global energy markets are immediately impacted."
Stockman continued: "That instability means higher energy bills for people around the world while communities in the region suffer the devastation of war. Europe, Asia, and other regions whose energy costs skyrocket because of this reckless escalation by the Trump administration are reminded, yet again, that fossil fuels are volatile, insecure, and expensive. The only question is whether governments will heed that signal and make a fair fossil fuel phase out a priority.”
Chair of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Tzeporah Berman made a similar point on social media: "Drones hitting Saudi oil fields, Qatar halting LNG production, Iran putting a squeeze on the Strait of Hormuz, and US attack on Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminals—all of it should be a wake-up call that fossil fuel phaseout is a national and energy security priority."
Yet Berman noted that the energy landscape is different today than it has been during previous periods of war.
"Unlike previous oil wars renewable energy is now available at scale," Berman continued. "It's distributed, diversified, and resilient. Most importantly, solar panels don’t blow up and once they are in place you don’t need ships to constantly feed them to make energy. The sun is looking like a pretty stable energy source right about now."
"Nothing short of a halt to the data center rollout will suffice... to ensure that people and the environment are fully protected."
Several Big Tech CEOs met with President Donald Trump on Wednesday and pledged to fund their own energy infrastructure needed to power their artificial intelligence data centers that have caused US utility bills to spike over the last year.
That same day, Food and Water Watch slammed the pledge as "wholly inadequate" and released what it described as a "first-of-its-kind report" outlining the massive environmental and human costs imposed by the AI data center explosion.
Among other things, the report states that data centers' vast energy needs are throwing a "lifeline to the fossil fuel industry," while undermining the many gains made from the revolution in clean power technology.
"AI expansion is largely fueled by dirty energy sources," the report notes. "In the US, over 40% of energy for data centers comes from natural gas, 24% from solar and wind combined, 20% from nuclear, and 15% from coal."
The report also pours cold water on Trump's plan to have Big Tech build its own energy infrastructure to power its data centers.
"Power plants can’t come online fast enough to fuel this growth," the report explains. "Data centers in New York state are seeking more than 9,000 megawatts (MW) of new demand—about 1.5 times the power consumption of every household in the state in 2024. Georgia Power predicts that energy sales will almost double by the early 2030s, largely driven by data centers. This steep demand increase can raise residential electricity costs—regardless of whether the new data centers pull from the grid or not."
Electricity isn't the only resource consumed in vast quantities by AI data centers, and the report also shines a light on the enormous amounts of water required to keep the facilities from overheating.
"The amount of water consumed by data centers more than tripled from 2014 to 2023," the report explains. "By 2028, US data centers could use as many as 720 billion gallons of water each year just to cool AI servers. This is equal to over 1 million Olympic-size swimming pools—or enough water to meet the indoor needs of 18.5 million American households."
Food and Water Watch says that the report's findings point to only one solution: A moratorium on AI data center construction along the lines of what US Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) proposed last year.
"The well-documented harms of AI data centers cannot be resolved with piecemeal regulations or vague promises from AI enthusiasts of a utopian future," the report concludes. "Nothing short of a halt to the data center rollout will suffice until a comprehensive regulatory framework is developed to ensure that people and the environment are fully protected."
Meghan Pazik, senior policy advocate with Public Citizen’s Climate Program, also criticized Trump's AI data center pledge on Thursday and argued that the president's plan "isn’t doing anything binding to cut energy bills."
"Data centers increase residential energy bills by upwards of 250% and many communities are left in the dark on these projects from the start," said Pazik. "Asking corporations to sign meaningless ‘agreements’ fits Trump’s tired pattern of seeking fake concessions from corporations that translate to zero action or relief."
Trump's AI data center pledge comes at a time when US voters are facing increasing economic pressure across multiple fronts. In addition to data centers' impacts on utility bills, Americans are also facing increased costs from Trump's global tariffs on imported products and a spike in gas prices caused by the president's war against Iran.
While Trump has claimed to be prioritizing cutting costs with the data center pledge, he was dismissive of Americans’ concerns about paying more for gas this week, telling Reuters in an interview that “if [gas prices] rise, they rise.”
"Republicans in Congress and President Trump are focused on spending $1 billion a day on a needless war with Iran that is already jacking up prices for Americans," noted one expert.
President Donald Trump made clear in a new interview with Politico that he either doesn't understand or won't accept the US public's response to his and Israel's war on Iran, which they're waging while Americans face rising unemployment and gasoline prices on top of high costs for other essentials, from groceries to housing.
According to Politico White House bureau chief Dasha Burns:
Speaking in a phone call Thursday, Trump was entirely on offense. He brushed off worries about the impact of the Iran war on gas prices and US ammunition reserves, and he insisted that the military onslaught was popular with voters. Many recent public polls show the opposite is true, although a survey released Thursday by Fox News found voters have mixed opinions on Iran...
"People are loving what's happening," Trump said. "We're taking out a threat to the United States of America, major threat... and doing it like nobody's ever seen before."
A roundup of recent polling collected and published Friday by Strength in Numbers data journalist G. Elliott Morris shows roughly half of Americans disapprove of the war on Iran, while only 38% approve.

Despite the polling, the GOP-controlled Congress has refused to rein in Trump's assault on Iran. Democratic US Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.) and four Democrats in the House of Representatives—Congressmen Henry Cuellar (Texas), Jared Golden (Maine), Greg Landsman (Ohio), and Juan Vargas (Calif.)—voted with nearly all Republicans this week to block a pair of war powers resolutions.
In the interview with Politico, Trump described the Iranian military as "decimated," and said that "we'll work with the people and the regime to make sure that somebody gets there that can nicely build Iran but without nuclear weapons."
As of Thursday, the Iranian government put the death toll at 1,230 people, including around 175 killed in a reported "double-tap" strike on a girls' elementary school. Israel has denied responsibility and top US officials have only said they're looking into it. A New York Times analysis concluded that the United States was "most likely to have carried out the strike," which killed mostly children. According to Reuters, US investigators also believe that American forces were behind the bombing.
Separately, the Times reported that two boys' schools—one elementary and one middle—southwest of Tehran "appeared to have been damaged on Thursday during the bombing campaign being conducted by the United States and Israel," though unlike with the earlier attack in Minab, "there were no immediate reports of deaths or injuries."
In addition to discussing Iran, Trump told Politico that "Cuba's going to fall, too," but "they want to make a deal." He also addressed Venezuela, whose president was recently abducted by US forces and replaced with a deputy who agreed to let Trump control the nationalized oil industry; his frustration with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who continues to combat a Russian invasion; and his recent spat with the artificial intelligence company Anthropic, which the president "fired" because of its refusal to let the Pentagon end the AI firm's policies against autonomous killer robots and mass surveillance of Americans.
With Trump focused on various conflicts abroad, Americans are contending with some of the consequences, including the impact on petroleum. Business Insider reported Friday that "the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline climbed to $3.32 on Friday, according to AAA—that's an 11.4% increase from last week's price and the highest level since August 2024."
Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed Friday that the US economy lost 92,000 jobs last month.
"Trump's reckless economic agenda has forced the labor market into the negative, threatening the livelihoods of American workers," responded Alex Jacquez, a former Obama administration official who's now chief of policy and advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative. "As the president piles on blanket tariffs and oil prices soar, today's report confirms he's sent the economy straight into a stagflation spiral."
The new jobs data came after the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that a record number of US workers are raiding their retirement savings. The top reasons for the surge in 401(k) withdrawals were avoiding eviction or paying off medical expenses.
Americans are facing an even more dire healthcare situation this year, due to Medicaid cuts in Trump and congressional Republicans' so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act—which also gave the rich more tax breaks—as well as their refusal to extend expired Affordable Care Act subsidies that helped tens of millions of people pay for health insurance.
"We should all be concerned about the slowing economy we've seen in the second Trump administration," Angela Hanks, a former Department of Labor official who's now chief of policy programs at the Century Foundation, said Friday. "The economy lost thousands of jobs this month including in healthcare and social services, the main sectors previously propping up the labor market."
"Healthcare, childcare, and manufacturing—sectors Americans rely on—all lost jobs last month with no plan from the Trump administration on how to fix it," Hanks added. "Meanwhile, Republicans in Congress and President Trump are focused on spending $1 billion a day on a needless war with Iran that is already jacking up prices for Americans."