Last fall, Lawrence Wilkerson, who was chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell, said about the Bush administration that “if something comes along that is truly serious, something like a nuclear weapon going off in a major American city, or something like a major pandemic, you are going to see the ineptitude of this government in a way that will take you back” to the eighteenth century. (“Transcript: Colonel Wilkerson on US Foreign Policy,” Financial Times, Oct. 20, 2005) The administration, in fact, seems determined to sink beneath even this standard of expectation. Apparently eager to duplicate the do-nothing response to Hurricane Katrina, presidential spokespersons have already announced that the administration will do nothing in response to a bird-flu pandemic by way of providing any help to cities, states, and hospitals. Michael Leavitt, Secretary of Health and Human Services, has been saying this for months. Here is one such statement: “Any community that fails to prepare [for a pandemic] with the expectation that the federal government will throw them a lifeline is tragically wrong…. [E]very community will have to take care of its own.” (“U.S. Health Chief Says Flu Pandemic Would Be Dramatic,” Associated Press, Jan. 13, 2006) By way of heeding Wilkerson’s warning, it might be prudent for every state, community, hospital, and citizen to assume that there will be no help from the federal government in response to what may be the worst disease pandemic in human history. This would be bad enough, but without immediate congressional intervention, federal ineptitude isn’t the only thing that may accompany a pandemic.
In October 2005, rather than offer financial assistance to states, communities, and hospitals, or oversee a major “surge” in vaccine research and production capacity, President Bush announced his intention to use the US military in a domestic law-enforcement capacity in response to a bird-flu pandemic. In this regard, the president said: “I’m concerned about what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States. One option is the use of a military that’s able to plan and move. I think the president ought to have all options on the table—all assets on the table—to be able to deal with something this significant.” The problem in 2005 was that the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 prohibited a president from using the military for police actions in the United States. In response to the president’s statements at the time, Irwin Redlener, associate dean of the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, who is involved in pandemic preparations for the city of New York, stated that giving the military a law enforcement role would be an “extraordinarily Draconian measure” and would lead to “martial law in the United States.” (“Bush Military Bird Flu Role Slammed,” CNN, Oct. 5, 2005)
The president’s desire to have all military options on the table for domestic law-enforcement purposes was not granted by Congress. That was October 2005. However, a few weeks ago we learned that “quietly tucked into the enormous defense budget bill” (that was signed into law by President Bush in October 2006) were provisions “that make it easier for a president to override local control of law enforcement and declare martial law.” (“Making Martial Law Easier,” New York Times, Feb. 19, 2007) Also signed into law at that time were provisions that stripped aliens and possibly US citizens of the right of habeas corpus, which is the constitutional right of recourse to the courts. (See “Repeal the Military Commissions Act and Restore the Most American Human Right,” Thom Hartmann, Common Dreams, Feb. 12, 2007; “What Is Habeas Corpus,” Larry Beinhart, Common Dreams, Jan. 31, 2007; “Democracy The Big Loser on Habeas Corpus,” Ralph Nader, Common Dreams, Sept. 30, 2006). Having essentially overthrown Posse Comitatus and habeas corpus in one month in 2006, there is more to fear than ineptitude from this administration with the onset of a bird-flu pandemic, which the president appears to view as a potential trigger for a declaration of martial law in the United States.
The most recent assessment of worldwide mortality in the event of a pandemic was published in the Lancet last December, which estimated that 51–81 million people could die. (“New Flu Pandemic Could Kill 81 Million,” Associated Press, Dec. 21, 2006) This would make an H5N1 influenza pandemic the most lethal disease outbreak in human history, along with the H1N1 influenza pandemic of 1918-19, which killed an estimated 50–100 million people worldwide. The high rate of infectiousness and mortality would severely disrupt social and economic order worldwide, including in the United States, and would lead to serious shortages of essential goods and services, including food and police protection—a highly combustible combination. Due to illness and the threat of illness, people in the United States would stay home and not go to work, perhaps for several months. Those staying home may include the US Congress and the federal courts, members of which might themselves fear death and disease, or worse, be under quarantine under orders from the president, enforced by the military. In contrast, preparations presumably have been made for President Bush to be serenely walled off in the White House for months on end in the event of a pandemic. This would further empower the president, relative to the unassembled Congress and the disbanded courts, in the context of a declaration of martial law. The widespread chaos and pandemonium—for which the administration has done nothing to forestall by way of funded preparedness plans—could prove to be an irresistible target of opportunity for Bush and Cheney.
The 1918-19 influenza pandemic lasted approximately 18 months, with urban areas experiencing the highest rates of infection and mortality. At any given time, the devastation was regional, not national. Suppose a pandemic develops in the months ahead, and becomes enmeshed in the presidential and congressional election campaigns, and with the November 2008 election itself. What if the logistics of a secure nation-wide vote and vote-count could not be guaranteed, or if a given region of the country (say, the heavily urbanized East and West Coast states) was disproportionately dead or disabled in November 2008? In the context of martial law and quarantines, who would determine whether to hold or cancel the election? What if Bush, under martial law, declared an extension of his reign? What if people objected and were thrown in jail without a habeas corpus right to the courts, or without any courts at all?
One way to prepare for an influenza pandemic is for state governors to insist on federally funded preparedness plans to maintain essential services (water, electricity, food distribution, hospitals, and civil order). Another is for the governors to regain and maintain control of the National Guards, which have been abused and run into the ground by President Bush and his war in Iraq. Most importantly, the Congress must quickly vote to restore Posse Comitatus and habeas corpus. The onset of an influenza pandemic would be a living hell. But the descent into the core of the inferno could occur without immediate action from the Congress to overturn the unconstitutional powers that the most dangerous president in the country’s history currently holds.
Howard Friel is coauthor (with Richard Falk) of The Record of the Paper: How The New York Times Misreports US Foreign Policy (Verso, 2004) and (with Falk) of Israel-Palestine on Record: How The New York Times Misreports Conflict in the Middle East, to be published in March by Verso. He is also coauthor (with Harvey Lederman) of “A Nutritional Supplement Formula for Influenza A (H5N1) Infection in Humans” (Medical Hypotheses, February 2006) and (with Lederman) of “H5N1 Influenza and Neurological Sequelae” (Townsend Letter for Doctors and Patients, July 2006).
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