Karl Marx once commented, "History repeats itself, the
first time as tragedy, the second time as farce." The
Bush administration may bear the dubious distinction
of being the first government in history to compact
both stages into a single cycle.
John Snow, Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, was in
China last week lecturing the Chinese that they need
to borrow more. Snow is pushing the expansion of American-style credit for China's budding consumer class, managed, of course, by
American credit card
companies. Noting the western-style hotels dotting
China's cities, Snow commented, "They've imported
their hotels. What we're saying is you can do the
same thing in finance."
This is the same John Snow who presides over the
largest budget deficits in U.S. history. It is the
same Snow whose economy and government live so far
beyond their means they must borrow over $2 billion a
day just to keep the lights on.
This is the same John Snow who, earlier this year, had
to all but beg the Chinese to revalue their currency
so as to lessen China's competitive advantage over the
U.S. And it is the same John Snow whose
administration in only four years has added twice as
much debt to the nation's books as were run up in its
first two hundred years COMBINED.
By comparison, China is a virtual paragon of economic
vibrancy. While the U.S. economy grew at an average
rate of 2.5% per year for the past 20 years, China's
grew at over 9%. And while the U.S. economy saves
less than one percent of its income, China saves over
40%.
The results of these differences as they play out in
long-term economic growth are jolting. U.S. GDP
doubled over the last 20 years. China's GDP grew
10-fold.
It is China that loans much of the money to the U.S.
that allows it to continue merrily down its path of
fiscal folly. If (when?) China decides to shut off
the financial oxygen, the U.S economy will sink like
the stock market in 1929. In fact, that is exactly
what happened the last time a big foreign lender
pulled the plug on U.S. borrowing.
Between 1980 and 1992, Ronald Reagan and George Bush I
pushed their supply side economic agenda, quadrupling
the U.S. national debt. But in October 1987, the
Japanese, who were the Chinese of the 1980s-which is
to say our lenders-sat out the Treasury auction where
the government was raising the money to cover those
debts. The result was the greatest one-day stock
market crash in U.S. history.
So, John Snow condescending to the Chinese about the
virtues of debt is like Typhoid Mary
lecturing Florence Nightingale on the proper
procedures for public health. One can only marvel at
the Chinese's restraint to not burst out laughing.
We should be clear: the Republicans' orgy of debt is
a cancer on the U.S. economy. First, it puts the
economy's fate into the hands of potentially hostile foreigners. Then, to inoculate itself against economic blackmail, the
government must raise interest rates, hoping other lenders will step in. But this puts a knife into the heart of the already
tenuous debt-based expansion. This scenario is literally playing out before our eyes.
Alan Greenspan has raised interest rates 11 times
since early last year, partly to help fund Bush's
record government debts. Economist Steven Roach has
predicted a cascading series of defaults by an already over-extended public, culminating in what he calls, "economic Armageddon."
Roach, far from being a bomb-thrower, is chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, a cardinal in the Vatican of
financial capitalism.
And Snow's (which is to say, Bush's) massive debts
make it impossible for the U.S. to invest in its aging infrastructure or to lead the next generation of technological
revolutions-biotechnology, nanotechnology, energy efficiency, etc. It was investments into earlier such revolutions-railroads,
automobiles, chemicals, electronics, and aviation-that made the U.S. the economic superpower it is today.
But more and more, it is a faltering superpower. We
are living off of our capital, hemorrhaging debt and
literally consuming the fruits of past prosperity to
fund a lifestyle we cannot afford but will not
surrender. Meanwhile, the only thing sacrosanct in
Republican economic policy is tax cuts for the wealthy
and still more tax cuts for the wealthy, exacerbating
the debt and all but assuring the decline.
Ideological zealotry is typically impervious to nuance
so John Snow probably misses the irony of a grievously
indebted capitalist finance minister hectoring his
flush communist creditors to borrow more so that his
own country might borrow less. It is like a heroin
addict lecturing his pusher on the redemptive value of
dignity and discipline, even as he begs the pusher to
front him another dime bag. It is tragedy and farce
rolled into one. Karl Marx would be laughing his head
off.
Robert Freeman writes on economics, history, and
education. He can be reached at
robertfreeman10@yahoo.com.
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