Hard to know the significance of what happened Wednesday night, when tens of thousands of Americans conducted quiet and peaceful protest vigils against the war in Iraq.

Did Aug. 17 mark the beginnings of a mass Vietnam-style antiwar movement with the potential to undermine the already declining support for staying the course?

Or were the events of the evening just an expression of solidarity with a bereaved mother, Cindy Sheehan, who had made herself into a national celebrity?

These are questions that can't be answered in August, a time when a large segment of the nation's psyche seems to be on vacation, even in the age of constant information.

For now, it's safe to say that Iraq is not doing to America what Vietnam did, even though the analogy to that conflict continues to creep into the national conversation. The death toll isn't as high, the passions not as intense, the war not as long.

The numbers in the streets aren't there yet either. In a post-9/11 America, with its elevated levels of patriotism and uncertainty, perhaps they never will be.

What's notable about the demonstrators of 2005 is how different they are from the protesters of the 1960s.

The Vietnam era's antiwar movement got much of its energy and many of its foot soldiers from college campuses. And that, for a time, affected the movement's credibility.

For students to march against the war, critics suggested, was not so much about politics as about cultural identity and self-interest, since young male college students, upon graduation, faced the prospect of military conscription.

Many of Wednesday's protesters, by contrast, were taxpaying, gray-haired adults, urban and suburban. Among them were parents of soldiers, and the parents' neighbors, and people with no stake in the fight other than their beliefs. Such people are potentially harder for politicians to dismiss than college students.

But if there is to be an antiwar movement of real consequence this time around, beyond what developed in the run-up to the war, it will need the energy and numbers that only the campuses can provide.

Until now, in the absence of a military draft, there has been little mass action on campus. That will start to change in September, when students get back to school. Or it won't.

At the same time, members of Congress will be returning to the capital after the August recess, having spent at least some of it listening to the home folks talk about the war.

The lawmakers will be more willing to voice doubts about the Bush administration's handling of the war and to demand a timetable for bringing the troops home. Or they won't.

In Washington next month, two events will help measure where all of this is heading.

On Sept. 11, the fourth anniversary of the attacks on America, the Defense Department is organizing a "Freedom Walk" to honor the 9/11 victims and to show support for U.S. troops in Iraq. While the event is touted as apolitical, it's not likely to be viewed that way.

Two weekends later, on Sept. 24, a group known as United for Peace and Justice, which has opposed the war since before it started, is planning an antiwar march and rally at the Washington Monument.

Much depends, of course, on what happens in Iraq.

If the death toll ebbs, if the Iraqis agree on a constitution, if an argument can be made that the end is in sight, then perhaps what happened on Aug. 17 will turn out not to matter.

But if none of those things comes to pass, and if the President continues to ask for patience, then a broad, mass antiwar movement might be in the offing.

August brings only questions. September figures to provide some answers.

© 2005 Philadelphia Inquirer

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