By overreaching so badly in that case, Republicans gave many Americans a fresh appreciation of the dangers of unchecked government arrogance, not to mention a renewed respect for the checks and balances needed to restrain that arrogance.

And for Republicans, that realization came at the worst conceivable time. Once that insight had taken hold, voters could see that same kind of arrogance at work in the GOP's move to protect House Majority Leader Tom DeLay by rewriting House ethics rules. And when Republican leaders began to attack federal judges as part of their holy crusade against the only government branch beyond their control, what had been a vague and growing unease began to coalesce into a deep distrust.

In fact, according to pollsters, Americans have come to reject both the premise and the tactics of the GOP's crusade. In a new Washington Post/ABC News poll, just 26 percent said federal judges are too liberal; 18 percent said they're too conservative; and 52 percent think they're about right.

In that poll, an astounding 66 percent opposed the Republican effort to make it easier to ram even the most extreme judges through the Senate confirmation process. Like the change of ethics rules in the House, that proposed change is seen as an effort to remove all impediments to raw power.

That sea change in public perception has coincided with another dangerous trend for Republicans. On critical issues from Iraq to energy to the economy and Social Security, enough time has now passed to see the results of Bush's ideology-driven policies, and it isn't pretty.

The Dow Jones industrial average has fallen almost 800 points from its high in early March, and respected figures such as Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and his predecessor, Paul Volcker, are warning about dire consequences if the federal deficit is not addressed in a serious manner. Bush, however, has made it clear that he has no intention of changing course.

As a result, a Gallup poll last week found that only 31 percent of Americans rated the economy as good or excellent; 68 percent called it fair or poor. Back in early March, 50 percent of Americans told Gallup they believed the economy was getting worse; by last week, it had jumped to 61 percent.

Reality is rearing its ugly head in Iraq as well. More than three months after elections that were supposed to transform the country, Iraqis may only now be overcoming the ethnic feuding that has frustrated formation of a new government. U.S. military recruiting is falling, soldiers die, and this week, the CIA officially abandoned its search for weapons of mass destruction.

More telling still, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was asked in a press briefing Wednesday whether we were winning or losing in Iraq. It's a straightforward question, but Rumsfeld responded by saying that "winning or losing is not the issue for 'we,' in my view, in the traditional, conventional context of using the word 'winning' and 'losing' in a war."

In the ABC-Washington Post poll, 56 percent of Americans said they disapprove of Bush's policy in Iraq, and 54 percent said the war is not worthwhile. According to a Gallup poll earlier this month, 50 percent of Americans recognized that the Bush administration deliberately deceived them into war, up from 31 percent less than two years ago. That number will grow.

Pick your area, and the results are the same. Failed policy, and poll numbers that reflect it. Energy? Only 31 percent in a recent Associated Press poll said Bush was handling our energy problems effectively. Social Security? Bush has traveled the country trying to unite Americans on Social Security, and polls indicate that he's succeeding, if not quite in the way he had in mind. Opposition to Bush's handling of Social Security jumped from 56 percent to 64 percent between March and April. In a CBS poll earlier this month, only 25 percent said they were confident in his handling of Social Security.

Those poll results can't be explained by Democratic attacks or a liberal media. It's just the cold, hard recognition of failure setting in.

Jay Bookman is the deputy editorial page editor of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. His column appears Thursdays and Mondays.

© 2005 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

###