It was a warning. They came in their tens of thousands, Lebanese Shia
Muslim families with babies in arms and children in front, walking past
my Beirut home. They reminded me of the tens of thousands of Iraqi Shia
Muslims who walked with their families to the polls in Iraq, despite the
gunfire and the suicide bombers.
And now they came from southern Lebanon and the Bekaa to say they rejected
America's plans in Lebanon, and wanted - so they claimed - to know who
killed Rafiq Hariri, the former prime minister murdered on 14 February,
and to reject UN Security Council Resolution 1559 which demands a Syrian
withdrawal from Lebanon and the disarmament of the Hizbollah guerrilla
movement, and to express their "thanks" to Syria. This was a tall order
in Lebanon.
But only 100 yards from the Lebanese opposition protests, the half-million
- for that was an approachable figure, given Hizbollah's extraordinary
organisational abilities - stood for an hour with Lebanese flags, and
posed a challenge to President George Bush's project in the Middle East.
"America is the source of terrorism", one poster proclaimed. "All our
disasters come from America".
Many of those tens of thousands were Hizbollah families who had fought
the Israelis during their occupation of southern Lebanon, been arrested
by the Israelis, imprisoned by the Israelis and feared that American support
for Lebanon meant not "democracy" but an imposed Israeli-Lebanese peace
treaty.
There were Syrians in the crowds - indeed, I saw buses with Syrian registration
plates that had brought families from Damascus - but almost all the half
million were Lebanese Shias and they wanted to reject 1559 because it
called for Hizbollah to be disarmed. They were perfectly happy to see
the Syrians leave (who now remembers the Syrian massacre of Hizbollah
members in Beirut in 1987?) but, bearing in mind Syria's transit of weapons
from Iran to Lebanon, Hizbollah wanted to be regarded as a resistance
movement, not a "militia" to be disarmed. What the Shia were saying was
that they were a power, just as they said when they voted in Iraq. In
Lebanon, Shia Muslims are the largest religious community.
Syria is run by a clique of Alawis - who are Shia - and Iraq is now dominated
by Shia Muslims who voted themselves into power, and Iran is a Shia nation.
So when President Bush said "the Lebanese people have the right to determine
their future free from domination of a foreign power", the power the Shias
were thinking of was not Syria but the United States and Israel.
And 100 yards away, the demonstrators who have bravely protested against
the murder of Rafik Hariri have become factionalised, courtesy of the
Syrians. At night, the opposition protesters are largely Christian. Yesterday's
Hizbollah rally, while it contained the usual pro-Syrian Christians, was
essentially Shia. And their message was not one of thanks to President
Bush.
"The fleets came in the past and were defeated; and they will be defeated
again," Hizbollah's leader, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, said in reference
to the Americans. Ironically, President Bush was to refer within hours
to the killing of 241 US Marines in Beirut in October 1982, as if their
deaths were the responsibility of al-Qa'ida. To the Israelis, Nasrallah
said: "Let go of your dreams for Lebanon. To the enemy entrenched on our
border, occupying our country and imprisoning our people, 'There is no
place for you here and there is no life for you among us: Death to Israel'."
Nasrallah's take on the 1975-90 Lebanese civil war was predictable. The
crowds were meeting on the front lines that had separated the Lebanese
during the civil war; indeed, on the very location of the Christian-Muslim
trenches of that conflict. "We meet today to remind the world and our
partners in the country," Nasrallah said, "that this arena that joins
us, or the other one in Martyrs' Square, was destroyed by Israel and civil
war and was united by Syria and the blood of its soldiers and officers."
This was an inventive piece of history. Israel certainly killed many
thousands of Lebanese - more than the Syrians, although their soldiers
took the lives of many hundreds - but the half million roared their approval.
So what did all this prove? That there was another voice in Lebanon.
That if the Lebanese "opposition" - pro-Hariri and increasingly Christian
- claim to speak for Lebanon and enjoy the support of President Bush,
there is a pro-Syrian, nationalist voice which does not go along with
their anti-Syrian demands but which has identified what it believes is
the true reason for Washington's support for Lebanon: Israel's plans for
the Middle East.
The Beirut demonstration yesterday was handled in the usual Hizbollah
way: maximum security, lots of young men in black shirts with two-way
radios, and frightening discipline. No one was allowed to carry a gun
or a Hizbollah flag. There was no violence. When one man brandished a
Syrian flag, it was immediately taken from him. Law and order, not "terrorism",
was what Hizbollah wished. Syria had spoken. President Bashar Assad's
sarcastic remark about the Hariri protesters needing a "zoom lens" to
show their numbers had been answered by a demonstration of Shia power
which needed no "zoom".
And in the mountains above Beirut, still frozen under their winter snows,
few Syrians moved. There were Syrian military trucks on the international
highway to Damascus but no withdrawal, no retreat, no redeployment. The
Taif agreement of 1989 stipulated that the Syrians should withdraw to
the Mdeirej heights above Beirut, which they have now agreed to do, 14
years later than they should have done.
The official document released by the Lebanese-Syrian military delegation
in Damascus suggests this is a new redeployment and that in April the
Syrian forces, along with their military intelligence personnel, will
withdraw to the Lebanese-Syrian border.
But the question remains: will they retreat to the Syrian side of the
frontier, or sit in the Lebanese-Armenian town of Aanjar, on the Lebanese
side, where Brigadier General Rustum Gazale, the head of Syrian military
intelligence, still maintains his white-painted villa?
Either way, Lebanon can no longer be taken for granted. The "cedar" revolution
now has a larger dimension, one that does not necessarily favour America's
plans. If the Shia of Iraq can be painted as defenders of democracy, the
Shias of Lebanon cannot be portrayed as the defenders of "terrorism".
So what does Washington make of yesterday's extraordinary events in Beirut?
© 2005 Independent Newspapers
###