For a brief moment two years ago, global opposition to the war in Iraq was dubbed the world's "Second Superpower."

It was so called because of its potential to become a brake on what war opponents saw as America's military adventurism.

The Second Superpower hasn't lived up to its potential, needless to say. But its leaders have not given up trying. And among those hanging on the results of today's election in Iraq, those anti-war leaders may have as much at stake as President George W. Bush.

"If the election touches off even greater violent conflict, engaging U.S. troops even more," said Leslie Cagan, national coordinator of the Manhattan-based anti-war group known as United for Peace and Justice, "that could be a kind of shot in the arm for us.

"Even if the election is considered 'successful,' but our troops remain on the ground [for a long time], that, too, would call into question the purpose of our presence. Either way ..."

It might seem an awkward political position - to see new strength deriving from the failure of what Bush calls a "grand moment for those who believe in freedom." Even Bill Dobbs, the spokesman for United for Peace, acknowledged that it is "a painful spot, edging close to the raw nerve of patriotism."

But the movement against the war in Iraq - much like the more powerful one a generation ago against the war in Vietnam - was built on a kind of patriotism that calls into question the assumptions and judgments of the people in charge. In this case: If Iraq was not behind the Sept. 11 attacks, why did we invade? If Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction, why did we invade? If we had no verifiable reason to invade, what purpose is served by the war - the untold numbers of Iraqis killed, the 1,400 American dead, the 10,000 Americans wounded?

To the question emerging from polls showing dwindling public support for the war - "Where is this war going?" - the Bush administration has been answering unwaveringly: to elections. He says democracy in Iraq will help bring democracy to all the nations of the Middle East and weaken the grip of radical Islamic terrorism.

It is a justification for the war that had to be merchandised after all the other justifications seemed to evaporate. And the anti-war movement never bought it.

"Whatever happens in this election, the administration is going to declare it a 'success,'" said Michael McConnell, regional director of the American Friends Service Committee, the Quaker peace organization.

"But do these elections really signal self-determination for the Iraqi people? It is doubtful. There cannot be a democratic process under an occupation with no basic security or stability, with large parts of the country cut off. A more legitimate vote would have been to have a referendum on the occupation itself: Do you want American troops here?"

Like Cagan, McConnell says the perception of "success" or "failure" in today's election will influence public support for the war - and the momentum of the anti-war movement - in the short and long term. Both, however, believe public support will ultimately hinge on the numbers of American dead.

"As the bills come in and the carnage continues, the American public is going to be increasingly opposed," said Dobbs of United for Peace.

(In a CBS/New York Times national poll this month, 55 percent of Americans said they disapproved of the way the administration has handled the war, though 51 percent said U.S. troops should stay, while 42 percent said they should withdraw immediately.)

A coalition of anti-war organizations, including United for Peace and the American Friends, are planning nationwide protests during the weekend of Feb. 19-20.

Among the groups planning to participate is a new organization called Gold Star Families for Peace. Its founder, Bill Mitchell of Atascadero, Calif., was the father of 25-year-old Army Sgt. Michael William Mitchell, one of eight soldiers ambushed and killed in Sadr City on April 4.

"This election is not going to bring any change in Iraq," he said. "If anything, it's going to make the insurgency more focused than before."

Mitchell was among a group of 20 family members of troops killed in Iraq who tried to meet with Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld during the week of Bush's inauguration. They were turned away by Pentagon police.

"None of our officials have children over there," he said in a phone interview Friday. "They say they feel the grief." (Bush said during a news conference last week, "We weep and mourn when soldiers lose their life.")

"But they don't know anything about grief," said Mitchell, the Gold Star father and citizen of a superpower that so far remains just a state of deep unrest.

Copyright © 2005, Newsday, Inc.

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