Perhaps it is that Colin Powell, who until now stayed as close to
Washington as he could to try to prevent Vice President Dick Cheney or
Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld from pushing phony intelligence and
aggressive policy advice policies on the president in his absence, has been
traveling virtually all over the world, assuring appropriately skeptical
foreign leaders that Bush will really -- REALLY -- be committed to
multilateralism in his second term.
Now that Powell has been informed his services will no longer be required,
the least-traveled secretary of state in the last generation is finally
getting out to see the sights, even if his credibility as a spokesman for
future U.S. foreign policy is less than it was for the past four years.
Or perhaps it is the sense of anticipation in some quarters, dread in
others, of what will actually happen in the coming term.
The dread, of course, comes from Democrats, whose somewhat diminished
presence in Congress will make them even more marginal in the second term
than they were in the first.
And it is felt by others who consider themselves on the ''left'' of the
very one-sided U.S. political spectrum, and by ''realist'' foreign-policy
analysts who are just hoping against hope that the over-extension of the
U.S. military in Iraq and the rapid depletion of the U.S. Treasury will
force Bush to pursue a less ambitious international agenda, sooner rather
than later.
The eager anticipation, on the other hand, comes from the now-familiar
coalition of nationalist, neo-conservatives and Christian Right hawks who
still believe that Afghanistan and Iraq were just the 'hors d'oeuvres' to a
repast of at least five or six courses.
Like five-year-olds on Christmas Eve who just cannot wait to tear off the
ribbon and wrapping paper that separates their greedy fingers from their
Christmas presents under the tree, these individuals are so manic and so
fidgety that they just cannot restrain themselves from blurting out or even
shouting -- repeatedly -- what they think Santa Claus had better bring
them, OR ELSE!
It is as if they had been told by their parents for months -- as indeed the
hawks had been told by Bush's 'consiglieri', Karl Rove -- that if they keep
talking about what they really wanted for Christmas, Santa would not give
it to them.
Similarly, Rove had ordered the hawks to shut up lest they scare the hell
out of the electorate and Bush would lose the election. So, having bottled
it up inside all this time, they are now bursting forth.
Of course, toy fire engines, Lego and Barbie dolls are not going to appease
this crowd, which has rather bigger things in mind, above all regime
change. Unlike the wish lists that Santa's elves at their workshops in the
fast-disappearing Arctic are toiling overtime to fill, these lists feature
the names of countries and institutions.
Beginning one month ago, when 'ueber-hawk' Frank Gaffney, the president of
the Center for Security Policy (CSP) and long-time protege of
neo-conservative impresario Richard Perle, published what he called his
''checklist of the work the world will demand of this president and his
subordinates in a second term,'' prominent hawks have been pushing their
own favorite targets for regime change or simple confrontation -- from
Caracas to North Korea -- on what sometimes seems like an hourly basis.
Add to that the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency,
changes that are already in the works.
These calls to action have appeared in all the usual places -- the
editorial pages of the 'Wall Street Journal' and the 'New York Post', the
pages and websites of the 'Weekly Standard' and the 'National Review', on
FoxNews, and the 'Washington Times'. Somewhat ominously perhaps, they are
also reprinted in the Pentagon's twice-daily 'Early Bird' editions --
compilations of must reading for senior national-security officials.
What is common to almost all of these effusions is the sense that, while
Iraq might not have gone quite as well as anticipated, the ''victory'' in
Fallujah marked a turning point in the U.S. occupation and January's
elections should permit Washington to begin drawing down its troop presence
in Iraq not long afterwards.
And, while the United States should still be committed to Iraq for the long
haul, it is time that it came to act on the threats posed by other ''evil''
regimes -- be it by military force, covert action, ''support for the
opposition'', or simple intimidation.
At the top of the list, as they have been for so long, of course, are Iran
and North Korea, whose possession of nuclear weapons is simply
''unacceptable'', as the administration itself has said. But others --
Syria, Venezuela, China, even Russia, and the latest target, the United
Nations itself -- are still seen as requiring policies of active
containment, if not ''regime change''.
Recent news reports that quote ''intelligence'' and sometimes ''military''
sources saying that Syria is now the financial, logistical and planning hub
of the insurgency in Iraq have prompted right-wingers to resurrect their
plans for Damascus, even as President Bashar al-Assad assures Washington and
Israel he is ready for peace talks without conditions, and might even be
willing to go to Jerusalem and negotiate an agreement with the United
States to secure his border with Iraq.
''The president's goals in Iraq, and elsewhere in the region, will not be
achieved until the Syrians are forced to halt all assistance to our
enemies'', write three officials associated with the Foundation for the
Defense of Democracies (FDD), a neo-conservative group behind the recent
re-creation of the Committee on the President Danger (CPD), in the
'Washington Times' this week.
Iran, of course, gets the most ink, with a constant drumbeat of columns
underlining the duplicity/hypocrisy/naiveté of Britain, France and Germany
for negotiating a nuclear accord with Tehran and the necessity of an
ultimate confrontation, if not because of its nuclear program than
because of the regime's alleged infiltration and subversion of Iraq.
While the hawks concede that a full-scale invasion of Iran is not a viable
option, at least for the moment, they insist not only that well-targeted
air strikes (by Washington or Israel) could, at the least, significantly
retard Tehran's acquisition of a nuclear weapon.
Similarly, they seize on every report of discontent, such as this week's
heckling by university students of President Mohammed Khatami, as evidence
that, as in pre-war Iraq, Washington is wildly popular with theologically
oppressed Iranian masses who will be eager, at the very least, to accept
money and rhetorical support -- already in the works, according to recent
reports -- from the Bush administration to put an end to the regime,
perhaps as peacefully, even, as in Ukraine.
North Korea is another top-ranking target, with, as in Iran, right-wingers
seizing on even more dubious reports of widespread and growing discontent
with the government to bolster their argument for regime change and at
least the preparation for military strikes, despite the fact that U.S.
intelligence does not have the faintest idea where key nuclear facilities
can be found.
Concern about China, whose failure to ''deliver'' North Korea, along with
its recent multi-billion-dollar energy contract with Iran and persistent
tensions with Taiwan are seen as evidence of potential enmity, is also
being spurred by the hawks, who appear to have resumed their campaign
against ''engagement'' with Beijing after a three-year hiatus.
Particularly notable in that regard, Dan Blumenthal, until recently
Rumsfeld's senior country director for China and Taiwan, moved recently to
Perle's American Enterprise Institute (AEI) where he resurrected the notion
of China as a ''strategic competitor'' to the United States.
Venezuela's recent aircraft purchases from Russia have spurred a series of
columns, particularly in the Journal and 'National Review', reminding
readers how close President Hugo Chavez is to Fidel Castro and how
determined he is to curb U.S. influence in the Americas.
But the newest and easiest target, of course, is the United Nations,
beginning with Annan, whose resignation over the ''oil-for-food'' scandal
is being sought by a growing number of Republican lawmakers in Congress and
op-ed hawks whose hatred and contempt for the world body dates back decades.
To find his head in one of those nicely wrapped packages under the tree
would portend a very happy new year and a terrific second term.
© 2004 IPS - Inter Press Service
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