We have no shortage of shortages. There's the much-publicized shortage of oil, which in turn creates a shortage of dollars in consumer wallets after filling up the gas tank. The shortage of jobs, particularly in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio, may produce a shortage of votes in President Bush's re-election bid.

But of all the world's shortages, the most important is the shortage of doubt, which has reached crisis proportions.

Of that, I am absolutely certain.

That crippling shortage shows up in many ways and places. Listen to the sparring on talk radio and cable TV — or even across the dinner table — and imagine how much saner it would be if even a smidgen of doubt were allowed to sneak in. If just once, James Carville were to tell Bob Novak, "You know, Bob, I hadn't thought of it that way," the heavens would open, trumpets would blare and a new era of human history would dawn.

A shortage of doubt also drives the carnage wrought by religious and political extremists around the world, people who are so certain about their cause that they recognize no limit on how they make it come true. The worst tyrants and dictators have always been those who entertained no doubt; the most heinous religious persecution has likewise been perpetrated by those of total conviction.

Doubt is also valuable in more practical settings. Before the war in Iraq, Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and others had no doubt whatsoever that our troops would be greeted with roses and sweets, and they refused to even listen to those who suggested otherwise. Robbed of the wisdom that doubt could have provided, they made no plans for any other possibility. A lot of lives have been lost as a result.

More doubt would also ease the bitterness that divides this country. Once doubt is banished from political discourse — once it becomes impossible to admit that the other guy might have a point — you get two sides entrenched in their position, such as the French and German armies in World War I, slugging it out at great cost for mere yards of territory.

In other words, you get what we see today.

Even in the religious sphere, a certain degree of doubt is essential. Once we are without doubt, once we believe that we possess the absolute truth, we stop seeking and truth recedes from our grasp. Some believe with absolutely certainty that the Quran, the Bible or other religious texts represent the inerring word of God, and maybe they do. But as fallible humans, we should allow for the fact that we are not capable of perfect understanding even of perfect wisdom.

Some might argue that we have more doubt than ever these days, in particular doubt of the media establishment and everything it tells us. To a degree that's true and healthy. Skepticism is almost always a good thing.

But in many cases, what we're seeing is not really doubt. It is instead a rejection of any information and information source that might challenge our personal sense of certainty. In stressful times, it is human nature to fear doubt and the uncertainty it produces, and we'll do a lot of mental gymnastics to fend that off.

Overall, doubt has been the fuel that drives the engine of progress. Western civilization began to move forward out of the Dark Ages only after the introduction of doubt about the wisdom of the Catholic Church and the divine power of kings. Doubt is the seed that makes us think that maybe things could be better; certainty is the boot that crushes that seed.

Doubt is also the foundation of democracy. Tolerance and free speech are based on the notion that the other guy just might have an idea we could use, so it might be wise to listen. Without doubt, listening is useless.

Of course, too much doubt can be paralyzing and make you afraid to take a public stand. It could, for example, make a person balk at publicly predicting that in Tuesday's presidential race, John Kerry will win with more than 300 electoral votes.

Such a prediction could of course be wrong.

But I doubt it.

© 2004 Atlanta Journal Constitution

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