JERUSALEM Last week, the Gaza Strip, one of the most impoverished and overpopulated areas of the world, seemed to be on the verge of disintegrating into tyranny. If the Palestinian Authority and its isolated leader Yasser Arafat fail to reform and lead effectively, a "war among brothers" is all but imminent. If they succeed, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel will use all means to undermine their efforts and weaken their government.

Ever since the Israeli leader announced his intentions to unilaterally evacuate most of Israel's forces and settlers from Gaza, a Palestinian power struggle has picked up momentum to fill the vacuum.

Two groups are demanding change: The first consists of militant youths from the destitute refugee camps who demand an end to corruption and the consolidation of resistance against the Israeli occupation. Alienated by the Palestinian Authority and left at the mercy of Israeli raids, their violent actions are motivated by anger and frustration and the sense that there is nothing to lose.

The other group is led by mostly disenfranchised political leaders who feel short-changed by Arafat. They are unhappy that their political role has been diminishing because of Israeli oppression and international indifference, and they are are worried about their own safety after recent attacks and kidnappings of officials. Referred to as "moderates," they demand that Arafat consolidate the security forces and delegate authority in accordance with Palestinian basic law in the hope of returning to the negotiations with Israel.

Neither group seems capable thus far of changing Arafat's thinking. He is adamant in his belief that reforming the authority in the shadow of an oppressive occupation would wreck it, and that putting security affairs in the hands of a new Palestinian government would not deter Sharon from military attacks.

Arafat is right about Sharon. But he is wrong about Palestine. Not taking action against corruption has diminished the Palestinians' trust in the government and has rendered it obsolete. Likewise, foregoing a strict security policy so as not to appear being an Israeli puppet has opened the way for armed factions to strike out on their own and take violent action against Israelis and Palestinians.

Moreover, Arafat errs when he assumes that this status quo is sustainable, or when he fantasizes about returning to the status quo ante. Judging from the refusal of present and potential Israeli and American leaders to deal with him under any circumstance, and from the way he has been abandoned by his Arab allies, Arafat's ability to maneuver internationally has been damaged considerably, as has his capacity to juggle policies and appointments domestically to gain power or time.

The Palestinian leader needs to focus all his efforts on overhauling the Palestinian Authority before a precarious situation deteriorates into anarchy. Efficient leadership might not change Sharon's policy, but it will strengthen Palestinian unity and empower Palestinian institutions which are indispensable to face up to Israeli occupation and aggression.

That's precisely why Arafat needs his pragmatic prime minister, Ahmad Qurei, whose post was created to appease Israel's allies and to fend off accusations of monopolizing power. The premier, who does not have a substantial powerbase and poses no threat to Arafat, is necessary for a transitional phase. But like his predecessor, Mahmoud Abbas, Qurei is squeezed between Arafat's one-man rule and Sharon's one-man crusade to destroy Palestinian nationhood.

Sharon would certainly like to see Arafat dead, but for now he is exploiting his tarnished reputation in the West as an alibi to further destroy the Palestinian polity, while speeding the erection of the wall in the West Bank and expanding settlements. Over the last several years, Sharon, like his predecessors, has undermined all Palestinian attempts at a ceasefire or reform by systematically carrying out provocative incursions or assassinations of Palestinian leaders.

Sharon's zero-sum notion of security - the less secure the Palestinians the more secure Israel - means he will continue to order the bombardment, assassinations and closures of the Palestinians until their leaders are willing to do the same dirty work on Israel's behalf. This is a role neither Arafat nor his potential successors will play.

Until there is a peace partner in Israel, the Palestinian Authority has the moral and political responsibility to reform - not for the sake of a pipe-dream goal of democracy and security under occupation, but in order to strengthen the nation's unity and steadfastness against the Israeli occupation.

Marwan Bishara, a visiting professor of international relations at the American University of Paris, is the author of "Palestine/Israel: Peace or Apartheid?"

Copyright © 2004 the International Herald Tribune

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