Although the economy was slowing even before President Bush took office, he
has made the situation much worse than it had to be. What could have been a mild
and brief recession has instead turned into a prolonged downturn likely to last
more than two years.
In terms of increases in unemployment and the gap between the economy's actual
and potential performance, the downturn is already substantial.
The president appears to believe that every economic problem is spelled T-A-X.
That misguided thinking has precluded him from adopting a sound policy program.
The centerpiece of his economic agenda, the tax cut that he pushed through
Congress, was fiscally irresponsible.
The administration also disingenuously disguised the true cost of the tax cut,
both by having it magically disappear in 2010 and by using the little-known alternative
minimum tax to reduce the recorded revenue loss.
The administration belatedly tried to sell the tax cut as a short-term stimulus
measure, but that is like arguing that a few new Ferraris are the solution to
a city's public transportation problems. The cost-effectiveness is abysmally low.
A much better alternative to the sports car approach to economic stimulus would
have provided assistance to states and localities to meet the fiscal shortfall
that inevitably develops as the economy goes into a downturn.
This assistance would have provided more generous unemployment benefits to
displaced workers, who will almost immediately spend the money on goods and services.
Similarly, on the corporate scandals, the Bush administration should have acted
faster and more resolutely.
The administration still has not advocated legislation forcing companies to
properly report stock options as expenses. The indiscriminate awarding of such
options has been shown to be an important underlying source of the problems facing
corporate America; they provided strong incentives to report large profits, and
top executives did better for themselves by increasing these reported profits
than by improving the fundamentals of the corporation.
To be sure, I believed that the Clinton administration should have supported
such a reform in the 1990s.
At the time, my argument was based on the theory that bad information leads
to bad decisions, with adverse consequences for the economy. Now we have the evidence.
And yet the Bush administration still refuses to take the action.
Some of my other qualms about economic policy during the 1990s apply with much
more force now.
For example, partly in an attempt to break the legislative deadlock with the
conservative Republicans who took over Congress in 1995, the Clinton administration
allowed the deregulation agenda to be pushed too far. But that does not mean Republican
conservatives should be allowed to push it still further.
Even today, the administration has not owned up to the excesses of the past--the
mistakes, for instance, evidenced by electricity deregulation in California and
elsewhere--nor has it set forth a program for dealing with the myriad scandals
facing the financial industry, from allocations of initial public offerings of
stock to distorted advice given by brokerage houses with clear conflicts of interest.
As we should have learned long ago, market-friendly government regulation is
necessary if markets are to work well.
I wish that we had done more to address corporate welfare in the 1990s, but
we didn't. Now Bush has made this situation much worse. Indeed, corporate coddling
has reached new heights with soaring agriculture subsidies, most of which go to
rich farmers and corporate farms, and new steel tariffs, which have rightly exposed
us around the world to charges of hypocrisy.
It's no secret that I am a tough grader on economic policy. The Bush administration
may want to pretend that its F is really an A. But that won't change the reality.
We'd all be better off if the administration would spend more time rethinking
its policies and less time muddling the debate with doublespeak.
Joseph E. Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University, is a recipient of
the 2001 Nobel Memorial Prize in economics. He was chairman of the Council of
Economic Advisors under President Clinton.
Copyright 2002 Los Angeles Times
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