The head of the IMF's delegation to
Argentina was recently cornered outside his
hotel room by reporters from a popular,
muck-raking television show. They handed
him a set of large, plastic Halloween
vampire teeth. "We found these lodged in
President Duhalde's neck," they told him,
"and wanted to return them to you."
Such views of the IMF are
commonly held in Argentina, and contrast
sharply with those expressed in Washington
media and policy circles. Here, the debate
has been about whether the IMF should
"help" Argentina, which is suffering from
four years of economic depression, a
collapse of its currency and banking system,
and default on its public debt. The doves say
yes, the country is desperate; the hawks say
no, not until the government demonstrates
more willingness to "reform."
Both sides are misreading the actual
situation. The IMF is not offering any help
to the Argentine economy. Even if an
agreement is reached, there will be no new
money -- only enough to pay the Fund and
other official creditors such as the World
Bank.
Furthermore, Argentina is not facing
a simple choice of whether to accept or
refuse this "help." It is much worse than
that. The IMF is using its power as head of
an international creditors' cartel to prolong
Argentina's agony. Credit from the World
Bank, from European governments, and
even the day-to-day credit that businesses
need to conduct international trade are being
held up until the IMF gives the ok.
This distinction is crucial. Imagine
that someone is drowning, and a passerby
does nothing to save him. This would be
morally reprehensible. But what if the
drowning man is trying to claw his way onto
the shore, and the passerby kicks him and
pushes him back into the river?
The latter case is much worse, not
only from a moral but a practical point of
view: the drowning man might save himself
if not for the outside intervention.
Very simply, the IMF is practicing a
form of extortion, and a fairly brutal one at
that. A couple of months ago the World
Bank was supposed to release some $700
million in funds for the unemployed -- now
numbering about a quarter of Argentina's
labor force. But they decided to wait for the
IMF's approval.
On a recent visit to Argentina, I met
with Dr. Nestor Oliveri, a physician who
runs a health clinic for the poor in the
neighborhood of Matanza, on the outskirts
of Buenos Aires. He pointed to children
jumping over an open drainage ditch. "They
touch their mouths, and they get parasites.
We have 30% malnutrition among children
in this neighborhood."
And it is getting worse, in a country
that was until recently the richest in Latin
America.
What does the IMF want from
Argentina? After more than six months of
talks and pressure, it is not even clear. The
government has already agreed to just about
everything that the Fund demanded,
including drastic spending cuts (especially
for the provincial governments) and
rewriting their bankruptcy laws to make
these more favorable to creditors. Yet the
IMF keeps moving the goal posts, and
coming up with new demands. Some
financial analysts have concluded that the
IMF is deliberately punishing Argentina for
defaulting on its international debt, so as to
discourage others from taking this path.
The Fund's policy conditions will
probably worsen the depression, by causing
layoffs of hundreds of thousands of workers
and reducing aggregate demand in the
economy. For four years, the IMF has been
arguing that the only way to get the
economy growing is to first restore the
confidence of investors, especially foreign
investors.
But the measures that they have
recommended to do this, such as cutting
government spending, have further
weakened the economy. These policies have
therefore had the opposite effect. And now,
by choking off credit from most other
sources -- i.e., its extortion -- the Fund is
accelerating the decline.
Unlike most countries that turn to the
Fund, Argentina is currently running a trade
surplus. This means that it does not really
need external financing. Nor does it need
dollars to fix its banking system, which now
runs on pesos.
In other words, the country is
capable of recovering on its own. At this
point the biggest obstacle to re-starting
growth may be the Fund itself. As the crisis
drags on, Argentina may have to find a way
to get around the IMF.
Mark Weisbrot is Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research,
in Washington D.C. (www.cepr.net)
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