"Do as we say, not as we do," is the
advice from the United States to the low- and
middle-income countries of the world when it
comes to trade. Lately the press has taken aim at
this aspect of modern colonialism. They have
pointed out the hypocrisy of the US and other
rich countries subsidizing their agriculture or
protecting their steel or textile industries, while
demanding that countries as poor as Ghana open
their markets to goods and services from the
North.
This allows the punditry to fancy itself
the champion of the world's poor, joining hands
in righteous indignation with the leaders of the
world's most powerful economic institutions:
the International Monetary Fund, World Bank,
and the World Trade Organization. The same
rules should apply equally to all, they proclaim.
Or as Anatole France once said, "The
law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as
well as the poor to sleep under bridges, to beg in
the streets, and to steal bread."
But how much will the world's poor
really benefit from increased access to the
markets of the rich countries? And is this really
the best way to level the playing field -- "free
trade" for everyone?
As often happens with debates about
economic policy, few of the people writing and
chattering about the subject bother to look at the
numbers. For example: imagine that the rich
countries of the world open all of their markets
for merchandise trade-- agriculture, textiles,
steel, everything. This would be phased in by
2015. How much more annual income would
the low- and middle-income countries have in
2015 as a result of this increased access to the
markets of rich countries?
According to the World Bank, the
answer is about 0.6 percent. The poorer
countries would not get their fair share, but
imagine that they did: a country in Sub-Saharan
Africa whose income per person would
otherwise be $500 a year would, as a result of
this trade liberalization, have $503. Not much to
write home about.
In fact, according to other widely-used
economic models, many developing countries
will actually wind up with a net loss from the
liberalization of agriculture and textile trade that
was agreed upon at the WTO's creation in 1994.
But it gets worse. The WTO doesn't just
make and enforce trade rules. It has a seamier
underside -- the highly protectionist agreement
known as "TRIPS" (Trade-Related Aspects of
Intellectual Property Rights). The goal of these
rules is to get the low and middle-income
countries to obey patent and copyright laws that
are made in the USA and Europe.
Economists haven't spent too much time
looking at what this will cost developing
countries. But preliminary estimates (again from
the World Bank) indicate that this one form of
protectionism could easily exceed the gains
from trade liberalization.
And there are other serious concerns that
people in developing countries have about
implementing the rules of "free trade," as it is
commonly and inaccurately labeled. In many
countries a large part of the labor force,
sometimes the majority, is still employed in
agriculture. In the United States we went from
53 percent of our labor force in agriculture in
1870 to 4.6 percent in 1970, and yet the
displacement of people from the countryside
still generated much pain and serious social
unrest. Imagine what would happen if this
century-long process were collapsed into a
couple of decades, as advocated by the WTO
(along with the IMF and World Bank) for much
of the world. This is a recipe for social
explosion.
The truth is that equalizing the
enforcement of bad rules will not make the
world better off, any more than spreading street
crime from poor to middle-class neighborhoods
would. If we look at the few countries that have
made it out of poverty in the last half-century --
for example South Korea or Taiwan -- they
didn't get there by adhering to the "Washington
Consensus" of free trade and unrestricted
foreign investment flows. Quite the contrary:
their governments protected, subsidized, and
even created key industries, and intervened
heavily to move their economies into higher
technology, higher value-added production.
Of course we did similar things when the
United States was a developing country, with an
average tariff of 44 percent on manufactured
goods as late as 1913. Not to mention
"borrowing" technology from wherever it
existed in more advanced form, ignoring foreign
intellectual property rights. "Do as we say, not
as we did."
Mark Weisbrot is Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research
in Washington, DC., and co-author, with Dean Baker of "The Relative Impact of
Trade Liberalization on Developing Countries" (www.cepr.net).
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