"If you're so rich, why aren't you smart?"
That ought to be the question of the year for the
big financial gurus, many of whom promoted
stocks of companies like Enron, Global Crossing
and other houses of cards right up to their
collapse.
It's not like you had to be an accounting
genius to see through some of the tricks these
companies used: e.g. Enron counting the entire
value of its energy trades as revenue, instead of
just the commissions that they actually earned.
But this raises a bigger question about the whole
stock market bubble, and one that is still relevant:
what do these people and companies that offer
financial advice really know?
Millions of people who put their
retirement savings in stocks within the past couple
of years now find that they will be working
longer, and retiring less comfortably than they had
planned. Yet most of them were told by financial
planners, not to mention the business pundits, that
stocks were a sure bet -- at least for those who
were holding for the long run.
But even now, with the S & P 500 off 25
percent from its peak, stocks are still highly
overvalued by any historic measure. This means
that the average person holding stocks today is
almost certainly going to do very badly, if they
are investing for the long term.
How can we know this? Well, over the
long run, no one holds stocks just because they
have faith in the future. At some point the
companies have to deliver earnings that justify the
prices of these stocks; otherwise investors will
move into bonds and other assets, and the price of
stocks will fall.
Right now the average stock has a price-
to-earnings ratio that is about 23 to 1, even
looking at pre-recession earnings. That's about 59
percent higher than the historic average of 14.5 to
1 over the last 75 years. In other words, the price
of stocks -- relative to the earnings that the
underlying companies are capable of producing --
is 59 percent higher than it used to be.
At present, no one has come up with a
scenario for the economy that would explain how
stocks could maintain such a high value relative to
earnings, over the long run. At least, there is no
scenario that is consistent with what economists
are willing to believe is a plausible story about our
economic future.
For example, today's stock prices might be
sustainable if stocks were considerably less risky
than they were in the past. So much less risky that
people were willing to hold them for a real return
of about 4.5 percent year, or not much more than
they could get on a government bond. But who do
you know that is investing in stocks for these
kinds of returns?
Alternatively, stocks could be a good long-
term investment if the economy were to grow
twice as fast in the future as it did over the last 20
or 30 years. But you won't find anyone betting on
that prospect.
All of this is arithmetic, and the numbers
can be put on a spreadsheet. The interesting thing
is that so few of the professionals seem to care
whether their advice is consistent with what they
know about the economy. When was the last time
you heard a financial advisor even try to explain
why he or she did not consider today's overpriced
stock market to be a bubble?
Of course there are often severe conflicts
of interests involved: for example, stock analysts
promoted failing technology companies that
generated fees for the Wall Street brokerage firms
employing them. And if you are a mutual fund
manager investing other people's money, there is
an incentive to follow the herd. The conventional
wisdom holds that you will be blamed if you miss
out on a speculative run-up in stock prices while
everyone else is riding it; and perhaps not burned
so badly if your performance crashes along with
everyone else's when the bubble bursts.
But these institutional failings can't
explain why so many professionals advised
buying into a bubble at its peak, nor the general
lack of respect for logic and arithmetic. A nagging
question remains: what do financial advisors
really know?
Mark Weisbrot is Co-Director of the Center
for Economic and Policy Research, in
Washington D.C. (www.cepr.net)
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