Sometimes honesty can be the best policy, even in
politics. This is a hard sell here in Washington, where the
truth is treated with so little respect, and spin is
everything. But perhaps the Democrats and their allies are
learning a lesson as George W. Bush's proposal for a tax
cut gathers momentum.
Here is a tax cut that is truly a gift to the rich and
the super-rich. One of its biggest components is to
abolish the estate tax. This would give hundreds of
billions of dollars to those who need it the least: people
who are born into enormous wealth. Two-thirds of this
tax is paid by the richest two-tenths of one percent of all
taxpayers.
There is no ambiguity here. Mr. Bush advocated
this cut during his campaign for the Presidency, and the
Republican Congress actually passed it last September.
The legislation was vetoed by President Clinton.
You might think that the Democratic leadership,
which opposes these tax cuts, would be bold enough to
suggest that maybe Bill Gates' kids don't need another
break at the expense of the US Treasury. Not so. They
have chosen instead to argue from an ultra-conservative
standpoint: we can't afford the tax cuts because we need
to use federal budget surpluses to pay off the national
debt.
From an economic perspective, the idea of paying
off the national debt as soon as possible has never made
much sense. Of course anyone who has a mortgage on
their house would like to save on future interest payments
by paying it off early. But should they sacrifice their
children's health care and education in order to do so?
Most people would say no. Economists would go further,
pointing out that it does not make sense to use surplus
funds to pay off debt when there is an alternative that
yields a return higher than the interest on the debt.
Our national debt is quite low relative to our
economy, and that is all that matters. It currently stands at
about 35 percent of GDP, down from 49 percent just 5
years ago. It really shouldn't be an issue, and if not for the
demagoguery of politicians, it wouldn't be.
The Democratic strategy was hit hard last week
when Fed Chair Alan Greenspan said that we could
indeed afford a tax cut, and that in fact he was concerned
that without one we might pay off the national debt too
quickly.
Greenspan's remarks were obviously politically
motivated. Would he have said the same thing if we had a
president proposing $1.6 trillion in new spending-- rather
than a tax cut-- over the next decade? To ask the question
is to answer it.
But here, too, the Democrats have painted
themselves into a corner by joining in the deification of
Mr. Greenspan, exaggerating beyond recognition not only
his impartiality but his competence.
This is a man who has repeatedly thrown
hundreds of thousands of people out of work-- by raising
interest rates-- in order to keep wages from rising. So
anyone who reads the business press should not be
surprised that he supports tax cuts for rich people.
If they want to give Greenspan credit for not
pulling the plug on the economy for nine and a half years,
fine. But this praise should be of the kind given to a
compulsive gambler gone straight: he crashed the
economy in 1990, sending it into recession by hiking
interest rates to 10 percent the previous year. He kept
unemployment much higher than necessary for several
years, by adhering to a theory-- now thankfully
abandoned-- that six percent was the best that we could
do without accelerating inflation.
And now, as we see layoffs soaring at companies
throughout the country, does it really take that much
political courage to question the six interest-rate hikes
since June 1999 that helped bring on the current
slowdown? Or does the "Maestro"-- as journalist Bob
Woodward titled his fawning portrayal of Mr. Greenspan-
- only merit praise for trying to put the toothpaste back in
the tube?
Now that the Democrats have been let down by
both the Fed chairman and their own fatally flawed
arguments, here's a new, more honest strategy. Propose a
tax cut for the majority of Americans, with an increase in
the Earned Income Tax Credit for those at the bottom of
the wage scale.
Then ask the citizens a simple question: who
should get tax relief? The richest one percent of
Americans, who have more than doubled their real
(inflation-adjusted) after tax income over the last 23
years? Or the majority of Americans, whose income has
stagnated?
They'll get the answer they want to hear -- and no
one will care whether Mr. Greenspan agrees.
Mark Weisbrot is co-director of the Center for
Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC. He is
co-author, with Dean Baker, of Social Security: the
Phony Crisis (2000, University of Chicago Press).
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