You know there's trouble ahead when Newt
Gingrich is resurrected after Al Gore's concession speech
to declare that this is a time for "unifying and healing."
Don't get me wrong. I'm all for civility, and respect for
the rule of law is certainly the foundation of a democratic
society. Even if the 5-4 decision of the U.S. Supreme
Court looked and smelled remarkably partisan, it's the
law of the land, and Mr. Gore did the right thing by
deciding to put this seemingly endless election in a
lockbox.
But when our 43rd President George W. Bush
talks about bipartisanship, and conservative Democrats
and Republicans start getting all cozy with each other, it
is a very bad omen indeed. When they talk about "getting
things done," they are not talking about seizing the
moment to reform our system of financing elections, so
we could choose among candidates that are not pre-
screened by major corporations and rich contributors.
They are not even talking about some of the more modest
reforms-- such as same-day voter registration or more
modern voting methods-- that would expand the
electorate and fix some of the problems that led to the
mess in Florida.
Instead, they are talking about co-operation to
reform the things that don't need to be reformed. Number
one: Social Security. Remember when George W. Bush
accused Mr. Gore of believing that Social Security was
"some kind of federal program?" That wasn't just a slip of
the tongue. Watch out for a bipartisan commission
designed to hack away at America's largest and most
successful anti-poverty program. Here is a system that,
according to the numbers accepted by all sides in the
debate, is solid for the next 37 years without any changes
at all. And even for the indefinite future, there is no
financial or demographic threat to the program.
But Mr. Bush made a campaign promise to
partially privatize Social Security, and so he will be
playing on the widely held misconception that the
retirement of the baby boom generation-- which begins
about seven years from now-- will break the program.
Unfortunately most Democrats have accepted this
mythology for their own political purposes, mainly
because they felt that "saving" Social Security was a good
issue for them at the polls. Now they will have to tell the
truth if they really want to save Social Security from its
enemies.
Medicare is another potential victim of the
emerging bipartisan love-fest. The Bush campaign
promoted the legislation proposed by Democratic Senator
John Breaux and Republican Representative Bill Thomas,
who headed up the National Bipartisan Commission on
Medicare Reform. Senator Breaux is currently under
consideration for a position in the Bush administration.
Their proposals would radically privatize the
insurance provided by Medicare, eroding the guaranteed
benefit that Medicare currently offers to senior citizens
and the disabled. By setting up a system of private plans
that would compete to insure the healthy and avoid the
sick, such "bipartisan" legislation would be likely to
increase the segregation of senior citizens by health risk,
with the less fortunate ending up with inferior coverage.
Recent experience with Medicare HMOs also indicates
that overall costs would increase, leading to continuing
pressure for benefit cuts.
Like Social Security reform, Medicare reform is
based on false assumptions and popular misconceptions
about the program and its future. Medicare is sound for
the next 25 years, and has traditionally done better at
containing costs than the private health care system. In
fact, the problems that it may face more than 25 years
from now are overwhelmingly due to projected cost
increases in the private health care system-- a system that
spends nearly twice as much per person as the rest of the
industrialized world, and still manages to leave 43 million
Americans uninsured. It is not Medicare but the private
health care system that is in need of reform, and the
proposed privatization of Medicare would only take us
further from this goal, with the elderly and disabled
paying the price in dollars and health.
Watch out for a bipartisan tax cut, too, which
could include a fantastic windfall for the super-rich:
elimination of the estate tax, which passed Congress but
was vetoed by President Clinton in September. A
staggering $400 billion of its $750 billion cost to the
Treasury over 20 years would go to the richest one-tenth
of one percent of all households.
With only 48 percent of the popular vote, less
than a quarter of the eligible electorate backing him, and
a big question mark over the actual results of the election,
Mr. Bush has no mandate for the "reforms" that he is
pursuing. Let's hope that his opposition in Congress
doesn't forget that.
Mark Weisbrot is co-director of the Center for
Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC. He is
co-author, with Dean Baker, of Social Security: the
Phony Crisis (2000, University of Chicago Press)
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