All week there were stories about the extreme heat and the raging wildfires it triggered. Temperatures reached as high as 120 degrees and dozens of people died. In some places the problems were worsened by drought. According to The Associated Press, "The sizzling weather accompanied the worst drought to strike the Balkans in 50 years, which has already caused record crop losses since it began in late May."

Ambulances patrolled streets in southern Romania to pick up some of the many individuals who fainted in temperatures that were well over 100 degrees. Soldiers were deployed in western Bulgaria to fight a major forest fire. At least 10 people were reported dead from the heat in Turkey. Intense fires raged on a number of islands in the Aegean. And wildfires in Italy consumed hundreds of acres of forest in the southern Gargano region.

No single weather event can be attributed to global warming. But this is the kind of terrible weather that scientists have long predicted would accompany the warming of the planet. That warming is not only well under way, it is accelerating.

There will be some benefits for some people from global warming. A study commissioned by the federal government said, for example, that the U.S. could see increased crop yields in some parts of the country and that they could lead to falling food prices. But that modest benefit would almost certainly be overwhelmed by the potentially devastating aspects of the warming that will occur here and around the world if nothing substantial is done about the buildup in the earth's atmosphere of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide.

That same federal study, released just last month, warned of destructive storm surges, chronic erosion of the U.S. coastline, extreme water shortages in some places, and frequent and severe flooding in others. The authors of the study said it is very probable that continued thawing of the permafrost and melting sea ice in Alaska would cause continued severe damage to its forests, buildings, roads and coastlines.

A word of caution is in order for anyone who thinks global warming is a good thing: be careful what you wish for.

"People who argue that global warming will be beneficial are missing two central points," said Dr. Michael Oppenheimer, chief scientist of Environmental Defense, a national research and advocacy organization. "First, until the greenhouse gases are brought under control, the climate is going to continue to warm, so you're never going to be at your optimum climate for very long. If the balance of milder winters versus hotter summers is struck in a direction that's favorable to somebody at some particular time -- well, just wait. The benefits will be ephemeral because it's going to get warmer. In that situation, today's winners are very likely to be tomorrow's losers, which means nobody wins over the long term."

The second point, said Dr. Oppenheimer, is the more important one. "Global warming is a problem that cannot be looked at from the point of view of a few individuals in a few isolated places. We are now one globalized world. If the climate in general is hurting large swatches of humanity, there is no way any particular group that thinks it's benefiting can escape from what is happening in the world as a whole. We are too interconnected for that.

"For example, it's been projected that declines in agriculture, particularly in low-latitude areas, could create large masses of environmental refugees. The rest of the world will be affected by those movements of human populations.

"The same thing can happen as a result of sea-level rise. Bangladesh is having terrible problems in this area. It has a population of about 120 million in an area the size of Wisconsin, and there is already border tension between Bangladesh and India. A significant chunk of Bangladesh is projected to go underwater in the next 100 years. Where are those people going to go? There's no room left."

It is possible -- not easy, but possible -- to mount an international effort to cut the emissions of greenhouse gases to an extent that would ward off a global catastrophe. It's possible. But there is not a lot of time left.

Copyright 2000 The New York Times Company

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