How can this nation be divided 50:50 in the polls when so many Republicans are fed up with George Bush? For example, Elmer Anderson, former Republican Governor of Minnesota said, “The imperialistic, stubborn adherence to wrongful policies and known untruths by the Cheney-Bush administration…has simply become more than I can stand.” ( http://www.startribune.com/stories/1519/5029512.html)

Marlow Cook, former Republican United States Senator from Kentucky, said, “I am not enamored with John Kerry, but I am frightened to death of George Bush. I fear a secret government.….Those of you who are fiscal conservatives and abhor our staggering debt, tell your conservative friends, "Vote for Kerry.” (http://www.courier-journal.com/cjextra/editorials/2004/10/20/oped-marlow1020-8060.html)

Based on the high-visibility defections from the GOP by principled former elected officials, as well as the large number of last-minute voter registrations, historic levels of outreach to young voters, and the undercounting of young and progressive voters in media polls, I predict that John Kerry will have a comfortable victory on November 2nd if the vote is allowed to proceed fairly. Unfortunately, given the history of the 2000 election, we are almost certain to have a presidential vote count that will be challenged by one side or the other on November 2nd.

The reasons are the failure of the Bush Administration and the Republican leadership in Congress to implement meaningful nationwide voting reforms after the 2000 fiasco, and the blizzard of litigation over election irregularities that already has started in Florida and other states. While I am hopeful that a recount like the one in 2000 can be prevented, here is a checklist of things to keep in mind if and when this election is thrown into a recount:

• Was the election conducted fairly? There is always a tension between voter requirements and voting procedures that are flexible enough to be welcoming but tight enough to prevent fraud. Both major parties have participated in voter turnout suppression and other questionable or illegal practices over the years, but the danger posed by electronic ballot boxes with no paper trail poses a threat to democracy that is a quantum level greater than shredding one person’s ballot. For example, with the touch of a button, a person could invalidate the votes of thousands of voters. The venerable Leadership Conference on Civil Rights (www.civilrights.org) urges calls to (866) OUR-VOTE or visits to www.ourvote.com if voting machine failures, intimidation of minority voters, destruction of voter registration forms, or other types of election irregularities are seen. Racism Watch (www.racismwatch.org) and the Voter Fraud Clearinghouse (www.dkosopedia.com/index.php/Voter_Registration_Fraud_Clearinghouse) are two other important voter resources.

• On whose word are you basing your assessment? A critical perspective is always best when assessing statements by any candidate. Given the importance of the recount process, even mainstream media accounts should be verified with multiple independent sources. FactCheck.org, CampaignDesk.org, www.c-span.org, and CommonDreams.org are four sources of independent information, and the websites of non-US media outlets also should be consulted: www.bbc.com, www.guardian.co.uk, and www.theglobeandmail.com are three well-respected English-language outlets.

• What are the alleged problems that are delaying certification of a winner? This 2004 United States presidential election is being formally observed by two international organizations. These and other outside voting rights experts have noted numerous shortcomings in our voting procedures, and these experts should be the impartial source of information we rely on if irregularities occur (NOT the campaigns themselves or elected officials from the Republican or Democratic parties). The two groups are: Organization and Security Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which was invited by the State Department in August, and a 20-member international team of voting rights experts invited here by Global Exchange, a human rights group based in San Francisco. (www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1021-01.htm).

• Are the remedies being used to address these problems proportionate and fair? If irregularities are being alleged with the votes in one county, is the whole state count being thrown out? Are deadlines being manipulated so that votes cannot be counted before Constitutionally-mandated deadlines such as the date when the Electoral College must meet? Don’t rely on television experts or the White House to tell you how the Constitution or other laws should be interpreted. Resources for making your own analysis can be found at (http://www.publicintegrity.org/default.aspx), (http://www.nvri.org/), (http://www.campaignlegalcenter.org/), (http://www.blackboxvoting.org/), (http://www.columbia.edu/cu/lweb/indiv/usgd/campaign.html), (http://fpc.state.gov/c9752.htm)

• What if the unthinkable happens, such as a terrorist attack occurs, martial law is declared, or George Bush loses the election but refuses to leave office in January 2005? Again, responses to emergencies should be measured and appropriate. Martial law was declared in Hawaii after Pearl Harbor was attacked in 1941, which was appropriate. Months later, the equivalent of martial law that was applied only to Japanese Americans was put into effect on the West Coast, and this was not appropriate. President Bush, despite what his attack ads are saying about John Kerry, is not uniquely qualified to run the anti-terrorist operations of this country. Based on his years as a senator, John Kerry is actually more qualified than Mr. Bush was when he assumed office four years ago. Also, there is a large federal civil service and military apparatus in place that is well-qualified to address terrorism concerns no matter who is at the helm of state.
  
• Are we allowed to protest an outcome we don’t like on November 2nd? Yes, the freedoms of speech, assembly and press are integral to the American way of life, and are embedded in our Constitution. No matter who wins on November 2nd, let’s continue to be supportive of our president when warranted and constructively critical when necessary.

Phil Tajitsu Nash is CEO of CampaignAdvantage.com and co-author of "Winning Campaigns Online."