WASHINGTON -- The bitter battle between Republicans and Democrats to control Congress in next month's election is too close to call.

Political leaders are predicting victory for their own parties, but independent experts simply shrug their shoulders when you ask them to forecast the outcome.

For instance, Charlie Cook, who publishes the Cook Report on politics, says that if the voters decide that the election is about the economy, "then expect the Democrats to catch a break in the close races on Nov. 5." But he adds, "If voters place a premium on supporting their commander in chief, then Republicans will likely catch the late breaks and win a disproportionate share of the closest races."

And President Bush? War and terrorist worries have not tied him down in Washington in the run-up to the election. He is off to more than 20 states in the next three weeks, campaigning for Republicans in a marathon that will keep him on the road more than he will be at home.

He has headlined 63 Republican fund-raisers so far and racked up $141 million for the party coffers. Together, he and Vice President Dick Cheney have brought in more than $158 million, far overshadowing the Democrats' measly take of about $92 million.

Bush sees his politicking as crucial because, as pollster John Zogby says, the election outcome is "about as close as you can get" with some races "razor thin."

Republicans now control the House by six votes, and Democrats hold the Senate by one. The GOP also commands the nation's statehouses with 27 governors to the Democrats' 21. (There are two independents.)

Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe says he thinks his party will pick up two to three Senate seats but he is not optimistic about capturing the House. He says only that it would be "tough but doable."

McAuliffe, however, is exuberant about Democratic chances in the gubernatorial races, saying, "We're ahead in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, Arizona, New Mexico, Tennessee and Kansas."

And he predicts Democratic challenger Bill McBride "is going to beat" Gov. Jeb Bush in Florida. But no one doubts that Jeb's brother, the president, will be trying to ride to the rescue with another appearance in Florida.

Jim Dyke, a Republican Party spokesman, says the GOP thinks it has "a real opportunity" to regain the Senate and "we feel good about our position in the House."

With many races so close, he adds, the Republicans are sending hundreds of volunteers around the country to join door-to-door, grass-roots efforts to get out the vote.

Dyke says the Republicans have a good chance to win Senate races in Missouri, South Dakota, Minnesota, Georgia and New Jersey. In addition, he says, "We're working hard in North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Arkansas."

Republican hopes soared when Bush zoomed in like a laser beam in recent weeks to put the country on a war footing against Iraq. He was following the script laid out last January when Karl Rove, his chief political adviser, sent a memo to GOP operatives telling them that they would ultimately be playing the "war card."

According to published reports, Bush deliberately withheld his frontal rhetorical assault on Iraq's Saddam Hussein until closer to the election. The New York Times quoted White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card as saying: "From a marketing point of view, you don't introduce new products in August."

The recent focus on Iraq has pushed all the other issues into the background, including the weak economy, the corporate misdeeds, the shaky stock market, the high cost of prescription drugs and the Republicans' hope of privatizing the Social Security system.

But now that Congress has given Bush nearly all he wanted on his war-with-Iraq resolution, the Democrats are trying once more to make the economic slowdown the No. 1 issue.

McAuliffe says that on his trips around the country, he has found people are worried about joblessness and a possible recession. He notes that since Bush took office, 2 million people have lost their jobs and that even before the 9/11 terrorist catastrophe, the president had wiped out the budget surplus and dipped into the Social Security trust fund. "This is the worst economic slump since Herbert Hoover," McAuliffe charges.

Zogby reports that two-thirds of likely voters say they are worried about dwindling retirement funds in their 401(k) and IRA accounts.

That's why Republican and Democratic candidates find themselves coping with the "politics of disappointment," he says. According to Zogby, people are not only disappointed in the economic malaise but also in the disgrace of many priests and corporate CEOs, the frustrating war on terrorism, and the FBI and CIA dropping the ball in their intelligence departments.

"It all has come home to roost," he concludes.

I hope the Democrats at least retain control of the Senate. Congress' Iraq resolution gives Bush too much power and the country needs a Senate that can provide some checks on his headlong drive into war, his favor-the-rich economic policy and his campaign to put right-wing ideologues on the Supreme Court. Otherwise, we will have an imperial presidency with nothing but a genuflecting Congress and a me-too Supreme Court.

Helen Thomas is a columnist for Hearst Newspapers.

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