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Welcome to the New Third World of Energy, the United States
How Big Energy Companies Plan to Turn the United States into a Third-World Petro-State
The “curse” of oil wealth is a well-known phenomenon in Third World petro-states where millions of lives are wasted in poverty and the environment is ravaged, while tiny elites rake in the energy dollars and corruption rules the land. Recently, North America has been repeatedly hailed as the planet’s twenty-first-century “new Saudi Arabia” for “tough energy” -- deep-sea oil, Canadian tar sands, and fracked oil and natural gas. But here’s a question no one considers: Will the oil curse become as familiar on this continent in the wake of a new American energy rush as it is in Africa and elsewhere? Will North America, that is, become not just the next boom continent for energy bonanzas, but a new energy Third World?
Alberta's tar sands. (File)
Once upon a time, the giant U.S. oil companies -- Chevron, Exxon, Mobil, and Texaco -- got their start in North America, launching an oil boom that lasted a century and made the U.S. the planet’s dominant energy producer. But most of those companies have long since turned elsewhere for new sources of oil.
Eager to escape ever-stronger environmental restrictions and dying oil fields at home, the energy giants were naturally drawn to the economically and environmentally wide-open producing areas of the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America -- the Third World -- where oil deposits were plentiful, governments compliant, and environmental regulations few or nonexistent.
Here, then, is the energy surprise of the twenty-first century: with operating conditions growing increasingly difficult in the global South, the major firms are now flocking back to North America. To exploit previously neglected reserves on this continent, however, Big Oil will have to overcome a host of regulatory and environmental obstacles. It will, in other words, have to use its version of deep-pocket persuasion to convert the United States into the functional equivalent of a Third World petro-state.
Knowledgeable observers are already noting the first telltale signs of the oil industry’s “Third-Worldification” of the United States. Wilderness areas from which the oil companies were once barred are being opened to energy exploitation and other restraints on invasive drilling operations are being dismantled. Expectations are that, in the wake of the 2012 election season, environmental regulations will be rolled back even further and other protected areas made available for development. In the process, as has so often been the case with Third World petro-states, the rights and wellbeing of local citizens will be trampled underfoot.
Welcome to the Third World of Energy
Up until 1950, the United States was the world’s leading oil producer, the Saudi Arabia of its day. In that year, the U.S. produced approximately 270 million metric tons of oil, or about 55% of the world’s entire output. But with a postwar recovery then in full swing, the world needed a lot more energy while America’s most accessible oil fields -- though still capable of growth -- were approaching their maximum sustainable production levels. Net U.S. crude oil output reached a peak of about 9.2 million barrels per day in 1970 and then went into decline (until very recently).
This prompted the giant oil firms, which had already developed significant footholds in Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, to scour the global South in search of new reserves to exploit -- a saga told with great gusto in Daniel Yergin’s epic history of the oil industry, The Prize. Particular attention was devoted to the Persian Gulf region, where in 1948 a consortium of American companies -- Chevron, Exxon, Mobil, and Texaco -- discovered the world’s largest oil field, Ghawar, in Saudi Arabia. By 1975, Third World countries were producing 58% of the world’s oil supply, while the U.S. share had dropped to 18%.
Environmental concerns also drove this search for new reserves in the global South. On January 28, 1969, a blowout at Platform A of a Union Oil Company offshore field in California’s Santa Barbara Channel produced a massive oil leak that covered much of the area and laid waste to local wildlife. Coming at a time of growing environmental consciousness, the spill provoked an outpouring of public outrage, helping to inspire the establishment of Earth Day, first observed one year later. Equally important, it helped spur passage of various legislative restraints on drilling activities, including the National Environmental Policy Act of 1970, the Clean Water Act of 1972, and the Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974. In addition, Congress banned new drilling in waters off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts and in the eastern Gulf of Mexico near Florida.
During these years, Washington also expanded areas designated as wilderness or wildlife preserves, protecting them from resource extraction. In 1952, for example, President Eisenhower established the Arctic National Wildlife Range and, in 1980, this remote area of northeastern Alaska was redesignated by Congress as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Ever since the discovery of oil in the adjacent Prudhoe Bay area, energy firms have been clamoring for the right to drill in ANWR, only to be blocked by one or another president or house of Congress.
For the most part, production in Third World countries posed no such complications. The Nigerian government, for example, has long welcomed foreign investment in its onshore and offshore oil fields, while showing little concern over the despoliation of its southern coastline, where oil company operations have produced a massive environmental disaster. As Adam Nossiter of the New York Times described the resulting situation, “The Niger Delta, where the [petroleum] wealth underground is out of all proportion with the poverty on the surface, has endured the equivalent of the Exxon Valdez spill every year for 50 years by some estimates.”
As vividly laid out by Peter Maass in Crude World, a similar pattern is evident in many other Third World petro-states where anything goes as compliant government officials -- often the recipients of hefty bribes or other oil-company favors -- regularly look the other way. The companies, in turn, don’t trouble themselves over the human rights abuses perpetrated by their foreign government “partners” -- many of them dictators, warlords, or feudal potentates.
But times change. The Third World increasingly isn’t what it used to be. Many countries in the global South are becoming more protective of their environments, ever more inclined to take ever larger cuts of the oil wealth of their own countries, and ever more inclined to punish foreign companies that abuse their laws. In February 2011, for example, a judge in the Ecuadorean Amazon town of Lago Agrio ordered Chevron to pay $9 billion in damages for environmental harm caused to the region in the 1970s by Texaco (which the company later acquired). Although the Ecuadorians are unlikely to collect a single dollar from Chevron, the case is indicative of the tougher regulatory climate now facing these companies in the developing world. More recently, in a case resulting from an oil spill at an offshore field, a judge in Brazil has seized the passports of 17 employees of Chevron and U.S. drilling-rig operator Transocean, preventing them from leaving the country.
In addition, production is on the decline in some developing countries like Indonesia and Gabon, while others have nationalized their oil fields or narrowed the space in which private international firms can operate. During Hugo Chávez’s presidency, for example, Venezuela has forced all foreign firms to award a majority stake in their operations to the state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. Similarly, the Brazilian government, under former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, instituted a rule that all drilling operations in the new “pre-salt” fields in the Atlantic Ocean -- widely believed to be the biggest oil discovery of the twenty-first century -- be managed by the state-controlled firm, Petróleo de Brasil (Petrobras).
Fracking Our Way to a Toxic Planet
Such pressures in the Third World have forced the major U.S. and European firms -- BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total of France -- to look elsewhere for new sources of oil and natural gas. Unfortunately for them, there aren’t many places left in the world that possess promising hydrocarbon reserves and also welcome investment by private energy giants. That’s why some of the most attractive new energy markets now lie in Canada and the United States, or in the waters off their shores. As a result, both are experiencing a remarkable uptick in fresh investment from the major international firms.
Both countries still possess substantial oil and gas deposits, but not of the “easy” variety (deposits close to the surface, close to shore, or easily accessible for extraction). All that remains are “tough” energy reserves (deep underground, far offshore, hard to extract and process). To exploit these, the energy companies must deploy aggressive technologies likely to cause extensive damage to the environment and in many cases human health as well. They must also find ways to gain government approval to enter environmentally protected areas now off limits.
The formula for making Canada and the U.S. the “Saudi Arabia” of the twenty-first century is grim but relatively simple: environmental protections will have to be eviscerated and those who stand in the way of intensified drilling, from landowners to local environmental protection groups, bulldozed out of the way. Put another way, North America will have to be Third-Worldified.
Consider the extraction of shale oil and gas, widely considered the most crucial aspect of Big Oil’s current push back into the North American market. Shale formations in Canada and the U.S. are believed to house massive quantities of oil and natural gas, and their accelerated extraction is already helping reduce the region’s reliance on imported petroleum.
Both energy sources, however, can only be extracted through a process known as hydraulic fracturing (“hydro-fracking,” or just plain “fracking”) that uses powerful jets of water in massive quantities to shatter underground shale formations, creating fissures through which the hydrocarbons can escape. In addition, to widen these fissures and ease the escape of the oil and gas they hold, the fracking water has to be mixed with a variety of often poisonous solvents and acids. This technique produces massive quantities of toxic wastewater, which can neither be returned to the environment without endangering drinking water supplies nor easily stored and decontaminated.
The rapid expansion of hydro-fracking would be problematic under the best of circumstances, which these aren’t. Many of the richest sources of shale oil and gas, for instance, are located in populated areas of Texas, Arkansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. In fact, one of the most promising sites, the Marcellus formation, abuts New York City’s upstate watershed area. Under such circumstances, concern over the safety of drinking water should be paramount, and federal legislation, especially the Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974, should theoretically give the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) the power to oversee (and potentially ban) any procedures that endanger water supplies.
However, oil companies seeking to increase profits by maximizing the utilization of hydro-fracking banded together, put pressure on Congress, and managed to get itself exempted from the 1974 law’s provisions. In 2005, under heavy lobbying from then Vice President Dick Cheney -- formerly the CEO of oil services contractor Halliburton -- Congress passed the Energy Policy Act, which prohibited the EPA from regulating hydro-fracking via the Safe Drinking Water Act, thereby eliminating a significant impediment to wider use of the technique.
Third Worldification
Since then, there has been a virtual stampede to the shale regions by the major oil companies, which have in many cases devoured smaller firms that pioneered the development of hydro-fracking. (In 2009, for example, ExxonMobil paid $31 billion to acquire XTO Energy, one of the leading producers of shale gas.) As the extraction of shale oil and gas has accelerated, the industry has faced other problems. To successfully exploit promising shale formations, for instance, energy firms must insert many wells, since each fracking operation can only extend several hundred feet in any direction, requiring the establishment of noisy, polluting, and potentially hazardous drilling operations in well-populated rural and suburban areas.
While drilling has been welcomed by some of these communities as a source of added income, many have vigorously opposed the invasion, seeing it as an assault on neighborhood peace, health, and safety. In an effort to protect their quality of life, some Pennsylvania communities, for example, have adopted zoning laws that ban fracking in their midst. Viewing this as yet another intolerable obstacle, the industry has put intense pressure on friendly members of the state legislature to adopt a law depriving most local jurisdictions of the right to exclude fracking operations. “We have been sold out to the gas industry, plain and simple,” said Todd Miller, a town commissioner in South Fayette Township who opposed the legislation.
If the energy industry has its way in North America, there will be many more Todd Millers complaining about the way their lives and worlds have been “sold out” to the energy barons. Similar battles are already being fought elsewhere in North America, as energy firms seek to overcome resistance to expanded drilling in areas once protected from such activity.
In Alaska, for example, the industry is fighting in the courts and in Congress to allow drilling in coastal areas, despite opposition from Native American communities which worry that vulnerable marine animals and their traditional way of life will be put at risk. This summer, Royal Dutch Shell is expected to begin test drilling in the Chukchi Sea, an area important to several such communities.
And this is just the beginning. To gain access to additional stores of oil and gas, the industry is seeking to eliminate virtually all environmental restraints imposed since the 1960s and open vast tracts of coastal and wilderness areas, including ANWR, to intensive drilling. It also seeks the construction of the much disputed Keystone XL pipeline, which is to transport synthetic crude oil made from Canadian tar sands -- a particularly “dirty” and environmentally devastating form of energy which has attracted substantial U.S. investment -- to Texas and Louisiana for further processing. According to Jack Gerard, president of the American Petroleum Institute (API), the preferred U.S. energy strategy “would include greater access to areas that are currently off limits, a regulatory and permitting process that supported reasonable timelines for development, and immediate approval of the Keystone XL pipeline.”
To achieve these objectives, the API, which claims to represent more than 490 oil and natural gas companies, has launched a multimillion-dollar campaign to sway the 2012 elections, dubbed “Vote 4 Energy.” While describing itself as nonpartisan, the API-financed campaign seeks to discredit and marginalize any candidate, including President Obama, who opposes even the mildest of version of its drill-anywhere agenda.
“There [are] two paths that we can take” on energy policy, the Vote 4 Energy Web site proclaims. “One path leads to more jobs, higher government revenues and greater U.S. energy security -- which can be achieved by increasing oil and natural gas development right here at home. The other path would put jobs, revenues and our energy security at risk.” This message will be broadcast with increasing frequency as Election Day nears.
According to the energy industry, we are at a fork in the road and can either chose a path leading to greater energy independence or to ever more perilous energy insecurity. But there is another way to characterize that “choice”: on one path, the United States will increasingly come to resemble a Third World petro-state, with compliant government leaders, an increasingly money-ridden and corrupt political system, and negligible environmental and health safeguards; on the other, which would also involve far greater investment in the development of renewable alternative energies, it would remain a First World nation with strong health and environmental regulations and robust democratic institutions.
How we characterize our energy predicament in the coming decades and what path we ultimately select will in large measure determine the fate of this nation.
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52 Comments so far
Show AllAs the American middle and lower classes continue to get poorer and poorer, a greater share of these fossil fuels will be available for export. The only benefit is that Americans will involuntarily reduce their carbon footprint because they can't afford to use as much energy.
All that matters to corporations is short term profit. Labor and environmental regulation are things to be bought and sold to the highest bidder. The US is well on its way to third world status- except perhaps in one area- it is convienant to have at your behest the worlds most powerful military- until the time you can build your own. I might add that this third world conversion is fitting. I am not saying we should stand idly by and let this happen without a fight. We owe it to the globe and ourselves to stop this. Perhaps, fully feeling the consequences of our own hubris- we will regain a part of our lost humanity.
A lot of China's energy use (around half iirc) actually serves Western consumption though. It's not like that Western consumption requires less energy now - it's just used up on the other side of the world. Well at least as far as I know.
I'm thinking the same thing.
With an accompanying suspicion that the slow return of manufacturing jobs from China to the US may have something to do with the manufacturing poisons dumped in Chinese water, land, and atmosphere these last 15 years during China's "miracle" growth.
A low Energy Return On Investment ( EROI ) in exchange for a high CO2 Return On Investment ( CO2-ROI ). More toxic water and a caustically dangerous pipeline. All for the promise of cheaper gasoline ( $2.50/gal ). This is timed with the coming record high gas prices this summer, just before the election, which will allow oil giants to have their way. That's why all the Iranian war drums are thrumming -- to boost oil prices. It's not complicated, it's easy.
"May the odds be always in your favor."
Solyndra's failure was caused at least in part by the downturn in solar power panel purchases. Sooner or later, we have to realize that alternative forms of energy do cost more now and will until (1) usage increases substantially and (2) fossil fuels become ever more expensive until their costs are higher than renewables. We must also support knowledgeable Democrats and Greens for local, state and national public office where they can fight for the end of "Rule by ALEC" and its tame legislators.
Ianista wrote:
"Artificially inflating the cost of fossil fuels is a loser."
What is "artificial"? From a rational point of view, fossil fuels are kept artificially cheap by the failure to account for their full cost - including the damages inflicted by carbon emissions. Fossil fuels are very cheap momentarily, very expensive when considering harm to future generations.
The current generation of adult humans, as a whole, places a higher priority on its own comforts than on the ability of their progeny to survive. This is madness of unprecedented severity, a marker of a species intent on self-extermination.
Driving down the cost of fossil fuels by failing to account for the full cost is just as artificial. Your use of the word "artificial" implies that there's something "natural" about how economic systems work. The whole system of rules by which prices are set is human artifice, not divine law.
Good comments, but it appears that this right-wing wolf-in-leftist clothing has been er... dissppeared from here in an unwarranted and arbitrary fashion.
Ah, Cheney and Dubya opened up the fracking industry. Obama wants to end some corporate energy deductions, arguing that Exxon, etc. are fairly profitable without special taxpayer help. All the republicans voted against this and 4 democrats joined them. The republicans get about 10 times as much campaign money from energy companies as do the democrats. So, clearly, there is no difference between democrats and republicans.
You nailed it. The Dems vote that way is just an illusion like you said.
If the Dems were really for the Merikan people, they would have filibustered, placed holds during the Bush years when the thugs rammed bills through.
When the Dems had the power, the thug did all those things to stop the bills.
People are still deluded to think that Kongress works for US. They do not.
There are 2 things they do.
1- Work to get reelected.
2-Cover for the elite and they have to do that by doing #1.
lynnh and joe, as I have said, politicians are assholes, but pretending there is no difference between moderate assholes and the truly awful amounts to blind ignorance. If voters would actually pay attention to legislation and how their representatives vote, they would learn that having a congressperson who votes according to a taxpayer's wishes 80% of the time is FAR better than one who votes for one's wishes 20% of the time. Too many people love to simply stereotype their ideologies and not do the work. Humans definitely have a lazy streak when it comes to too much study and thinking. It's far easier to simply form a view and see everything through that prism. Yeah, make sure you're always right. Rail at the rich bastards and feel sorry for yourself.
If there was such a huge difference, what you're saying would make sense. But as far as I can see, the difference is not this large, and more importantly, not really substantial - it is mostly about issues that do not concern power directly. And of course in a lot of cases, even concerning these issues (like reproductive freedom eg.), congresspeople on both sides can say they're voting according to the people's wishes. Not that these issues don't matter at all, they can be pretty important for a large number of people, but they're not the core issues. There can be a few bigger differences too, eg. the Iraq war *might* not have happened with Kerry (although I guess some people may think that 9/11 itself wouldn't have happened with him at all); but speculation is mostly meaningless: you could argue, I think with the same persuasive force, that Obama could manage to be much more reactionary than a Republican alternative because there was not even a symbolic counterforce to him.
But really. Vote how you feel. One of the assholes *will* become president and your vote (and anyone's who is even aware of and thinking about and discussing the "lesser evil" argument) will most be completely meaningless anyway (because I guess there aren't really enough people who even think about this issue...may be wrong though). While lesser evilism may or may not be a bad strategy, its biggest problem is not in the actual choice that is made but in misdirecting effort from things that might matter more towards meaningless partisan fake politics.
Oh lord, another Lesser-Evilist. And round and round we go.
Can you think of many cases where there really have been choices to be made between several "evils" where one is the least "evil"?
Or do you think every situation in the world involving choice presents at least one bright and shiny "good" which can be chosen over the other "evil" options?
Whoa. WAY too much post deleting on CD these days. WTF is happening?
Certainly Pennsylvania's current governor, the vile Tom Corbett is literally dismantling the "Commonwealth" down to third-world status, complete with impassibly potholed roads, schools and universities only for the wealthy, low wages, and widespread pollutution, and regulatory agencies in name only. Already a fairly impoverished state once you are west and north of Harrisburg, It's going to look like my memories of Venezuela in the 1980's in no time at all.
Never been to western PA?
Corbett has cut funding to the state U's in half. State support for public schools are being slashed; no funding is forthcoming for urgent road and bridge repairs. Public transportaton in Pittsburgh - once so good that many middle-class people didn't bother to own a car in the 1990s, will be reduced to jsut 30% of the service when I first moved here in 1998.
All this is being done so that the Marcellus shale frackers can extract the gas completely tax and state-royalty free. No other state has tax and royalty-free oil and gas drilling. The drillers only pay some permit fees, and soon, a one-time, completely inadequate "impact fee". Jobs? All the good jobs go to Texans and Oklahomans from the driller's home states. Pennsylvanians clean their rooms and cook their meals for minimum wage (just like some rigs in Venezuela).
Local government are now prohibited from regulating gas drilling in their counties, townships and boroughs in any way.
In short, nearly 100% of the resource wealth beneath the "Commonwealth" leaves the "Commonwealth", 100% of the pollution and trashed public infrastructure stays.
One could also see it as just a return to robber-baron days Pennsylvania itself, when the workers were slaves and the land raped for the timber, coal and oil. To this day much of western Pennsylvania remains environmentally trashed from those days - red, dead creeks and places where forest won't grow back.
The Pennsylvania constitution does not allow recalls.
UT has also opened up the Uintah Basin for fracking and the idiots there are rejoicing.
They are under the illusion if we just drilled more here in the States, we would get off of foreign oil.
I keep TRYING to tell them that the US has been drilling here for decades. Oil pumps all over TX and OK. The Gulf area has been decimated with all the canals for the oil pipelines allowing seawater to kill off the land.
And all this goes to the World Market. The US is exporting more oil then ever. If Obama was serious about getting us off foreign oil, wouldn't we keep it here?
But people are stupid. Drill here. Drill now. Like I said, we have been for decades.
What a pity to hear of the continued devastation. Does Pittsburgh still have the best sandwich in the world? - Senseri Brothers eggplant sandwich. Mind boggling. I guess it's a good thing at least some of my family made the move from there to Oregon a few years back. My heart goes out to all who are left holding the bag full of trashed land and streams from both the coal operations and now this.
"Senseri Brothers eggplant sandwich."
Wow! I was fully expecting you, as 99% to describe the Primanti Bros (just around the corner from Sunseri Bros) corned beef sandwich with the fries on top! Or the traditional oversized fried fish sandwich with mac-cheese on the side for lent!
I never heard of Sunseri's eggplant sandwich. I'll look for it next time I'm in the strip district (not what you think it is - a warehouse/grocery vendor district a bit like Portland's pearl district).
I've been to sister river-and-bridge city Portland a few times, and Pittsburgh once had an edge over Portland as far as livability and urban amenities (and even good beer). I'll take the blue-collar-ethnic "realness" over the yuppie "hipness" of Portland any time. But now I'm not so sure. I moved to Pittsburgh when it reached it peak of livability in the late 1990's, its been in decline since.
And mind you, a lot of watersheds have improved dramatically. I've seen the Kiskimenetas River just 30 mi away turn from a near-dead river of red stained rocks to a clean, big-walleye-fishing river very popular with weekend canoeists. But a lot of cleaned-up streams are just a mine-water bust-out away from returning to their polluted state. The old mines will continue to produce acid-metal pollution forever on human terms.
In our daily lives, we use large volumes of energy, yet have no power. Alas.
I just posted a comment on the Burma story, where I had said:
"The source of their "strength" is internal. And that is the most powerful source, although it may not look that way in the short run. How else could they have endured this suffering and yet remain hopeful?"
One just about any important decision, our prez will take the path of least resistance.
Any locally-induced degradation from oil and gas extraction activities will pale in comparison to the globally-triggered devastation from shifting the Earth into climate chaos. Once the CO2 is in the atmosphere and the carbon sinks (phytoplankton and forests) are destroyed, no technology to remove the atmospheric carbon is available, or likely to become available.* CO2 persistence in the atmosphere is on a geologic time scale, lasting many thousands of years - essentially eternal from a human point of view.
Among climate scientists, the view is virtually universal that the total dose of CO2, before fossil fuel use is discontinued, is the quantity which matters. Whether we immediately initiate a gradual phase-out, or later collapse into a sudden decrease - the area underneath the curve of the emissions graph, the total dose, is the quantity relevant to the Earth's climate.
It doesn't matter to future generations where fossil fuel reserves are extracted, where consumed, nor how quickly we burn them. What matters is whether the destruction of Life on Earth, for the sake of cheap energy, can be stopped.
* "Direct Air Capture of CO2 with Chemicals," APS, 2011
www.aps.org/policy/reports/assessments/upload/dac2011.pdf
Good point, Aleph Null.
What you refer to as "the total dose of CO2", I call "the net reduction in atmospheric CO2" from the POV of taking urgent action.
The "net reduction" in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the "rate" of this reduction are what matter MOST -- something that is missed, big time, by so many people, especially by some who claim to be more serious than most.
No matter what approach is taken, no matter what sort of solution is proposed - "clean energy" or whatever, what REALLY matters is the RATE at which the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases is reduced.
The "net reduction" in the atmospheric GHG concentration and the "rate" at which this takes place will depend on
the difference between the rate of total emissions and the rate of total absorption -- as simple as that!
There is very little that humans can do to increase the rate of total absorption, other than planting billions of trees and waiting. Saying "stop deforestation" but WITHOUT delving into the real causes of deforestation is worthless. And so is a call for reducing GHG emissions without delving into the major sources of emissions. It is high time that people REALLY understood the primary sources of greenhouse emissions, the ongoing destruction of whatever little carbon sink capacity is left, and that what matters at the end of the day is the net rate of GHG emissions.
Ray Pierrehumbert posted a good discussion of the cumulative carbon issue out at RealClimate. The remainder of this post is excerpted from the article linked below:
"Here’s all you ever really need to know about CO2 emissions and climate:
# The peak warming is linearly proportional to the cumulative carbon emitted
# It doesn’t matter much how rapidly the carbon is emitted
# The warming you get when you stop emitting carbon is what you are stuck with for the next thousand years
# The climate recovers only slightly over the next ten thousand years
# At the mid-range of IPCC climate sensitivity, a trillion tonnes cumulative carbon gives you about 2C global mean warming above the pre-industrial temperature.
[...]
Assuming a 50-50 chance that climate sensitivity is at or below [the mid-range IPCC climate sensitivity], we thus have a 50-50 chance of holding warming below 2C if cumulative emissions are held to a trillion tonnes. Including deforestation, we have already emitted about half that, so our whole future allowance is another 500 gigatonnes."
"Keystone XL: Game over?" Ray Pierrehumbert, Nov 2011
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/11/keystone-xl-game-over/
OK, Aleph Null, to clarify what I wrote, the "rate" part is regarding taking action within the short period of time there is. The reason there is only a short period of time is obviously due to the cumulative emissions. But from here on, from the POV of taking action, and to evaluate one course of action over another, what matters is the rate at which atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases is reduced. (Concentration is a "derived" quantity, whereas "emissions" is still a primary quantity.)
The rate of net accumulation (or reduction) of CO2 does matter from here on, EVEN IF we are stuck with the warming for now, as that would be an indicator of how fast we are moving towards, or pulling away from, disaster.
One of the links from the page you cited on RealClimate ("Hit the brakes hard") does say this:
>>"... unless humankind puts on the brakes very quickly and aggressively (i.e. global reductions of 80% by 2050), we face a high probability of driving climate beyond a 2°C threshold taken by both studies as a “danger limit”."<<
Because of the huge thermal mass involved, I would think that the rate of increase or decrease would matter very much, especially now that we have pushed the system to its limit.
I have a bit of a problem with the wording of points #(1) and (2). Here's why:
Cumulative emissions are obviously at the core of the problem. But unless it also means "net" emissions (that is, minus absorption), I think, from here on, reducing emissions alone will not help without also increasing the carbon sink capacity. And achieving an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050, by itself, may not mean much if much of the remaining carbon sink capacity is going to be destroyed. Also, how fast this reduction is brought about should also matter, I would imagine. If everything continues they way it does until, say, 2040, and then the reduction starts from there on, so as to reach the "target" by 2050, obviously that's not going to help. Unless point #3 implies a capping of emissions right now or in the next couple of years, and refers to the huge inertia involved.
In short, I think the critical number we have to keep an eye on is the atmospheric concentration of GHG, and not just the emissions. But the RealClimate article does put things in perspective about the pipeline, I agree.
The concept of carbon "absorption" is clarified by considering the cycling of carbon through "surface reservoirs" versus "geologic reservoirs." The Earth's surface reservoirs of carbon comprise ocean waters and the biosphere as well as the atmosphere. But only the atmospheric carbon exerts a greenhouse effect, so reforestation (moving carbon from the atmosphere into the biosphere) is vital for reclaiming the 100 GtC released into the atmosphere by deforestation.
Carbon is constantly exchanged between the ocean and the atmosphere, so when they say carbon is absorbed by the ocean, it hasn't exited the surface reservoirs - where it remains a long-term climate threat. Exchanges of carbon between surface reservoirs are continuous on the scale of centuries. Meanwhile, over thousands to millions of years, carbon is more permanently sequestered in geologic reservoirs.
Fossil fuel use releases carbon from geologic reservoirs into surface reservoirs - this is completely outside the prior history of the carbon cycle on planet Earth. We can hope for some amount of absorption into non-atmospheric surface reservoirs, but not if we continue releasing one or two trillion tonnes of carbon from geologic reservoirs. Unless we figure out a way to put the carbon back into the ground after burning it (which appears extremely unlikely), the only way to avoid the hit from cumulative emissions is to avoid accumulating much more.
This is what Hansen's "game over for the climate" pertains to: if existing reserves don't stay in the ground, where they belong, there won't be anything to do about cumulative emissions of CO2 into Earth's surface reservoirs.
The logic and the imperative of "geologic reserves" of carbon to stay in the ground is quite clear, and I think that represents the minimum requirement at this stage.
I am also quite aware that "only the atmospheric carbon exerts a greenhouse effect", and that is why I had said "I think the critical number we have to keep an eye on is the atmospheric concentration of GHG, and not just the emissions", since the atmospheric concentration is the result of the balance between emissions and absorption.
However, I think this article by Ray Pierrehumbert and the other one linked from there ("Hit the brakes hard") say something different - especially the second one:
>>... "the most directly relevant quantity is the total amount of CO2 ultimately released, rather than a target atmospheric CO2 concentration or emission rate."<<
Now I know one way to explain this, and that is based on the seriously reduced capacity of the carbon sinks, the slow rate of absorption by the trees (and also the ocean), and possibly a certain thermal inertia of the whole system.
But I don't understand why they need to say that the atmospheric CO2 concentration is less relevant than "the total amount of CO2 ultimately released". (Although I am paraphrasing, it is directly from the above quoted sentence.) I think they may be referring to the dangerous targets being considered as "acceptable" by some people. But how is aiming for a target concentration of 350 ppm less relevant? And the only way to reach this "target concentration" in a short enough time, from a practical standpoint, is by seriously controlling the rate of emissions (since complete stopping of all manmade emissions right now is not practical) and by tipping the balance so that the carbon absorption rate becomes larger than the emissions rate at some point.
My particular concern is about an inadvertent downplaying of the critical importance of increasing the carbon sink capacity, and to stop any further destruction of this capacity. Because simply turning off much of the manmade GHG emissions right now or 5 years from now is not good enough to stop the current temperature trajectory, unless there is sufficient carbon sink capacity to reverse it. That is, capping the emissions is only the minimum requirement, but not sufficient at this stage.
I have no doubt that these people understand the science. But I seriously think that their wording of these assertions is open to misunderstanding, especially if taken out of context. And when some things are listed as bulleted points, I think they should be able to stand on their own without needing to be explained.
You make a good point that their wording might be open to misinterpretation. Climatologists spend so much time immersed in paleoclimate research - unraveling the response of the climate system on a geologic scale - that they tend to think like geologists. A few thousand years is the blink of an eye to a geologist. On that scale, the carbon settles into an equilibrium between surface reservoirs. (On a human scale, it is vital to protect and enhance carbon sinks, as you say.)
But the other reason they're focusing on cumulative emissions is that the latest research (referenced in that "Hit the brakes" article) is finding a linear relationship between peak warming and cumulative emissions. Apparently, reducing the emissions rate without reducing the total amount of emissions would only postpone the year in which peak warming occurs - it would not reduce the severity of peak warming.
From a policy perspective, limiting cumulative emissions to a maximum of one trillion tonnes*, say, is a firmer goal to enforce than limiting atmospheric CO2 to a maximum of 450 ppm, simply because assessing emissions is much more straightforward than predicting the future response of surface reservoirs. Try looking into what proportion of emissions goes into the ocean, into the biosphere, and into the atmosphere. It's about 1/3 to each, but estimates vary widely.
Since peak warming is the consequential outcome, and that depends on cumulative emissions, it's possible to use a simpler equation to gauge the consequences of fossil fuel use. If there's one thing which warms the heart of any physicist, it's a simpler equation. Less math to screw up.
* If one trillion tonnes = +2°C, this level of cumulative emissions would be too much, imho. To be clear, the cumulative emissions measure is not reached until emissions have completely stopped.
>>Aleph Null wrote: "Apparently, reducing the emissions rate without reducing the total amount of emissions would only postpone the year in which peak warming occurs - it would not reduce the severity of peak warming."<<
Aleph Null, I think I had better read those papers to see if I can understand this better (but the problem with the language would still remain, I think).
You see, when you say "cumulative emissions" (or when "they" say), what does it mean? Is it the cumulative emissions with a particular year as the baseline? Because, that is normally how this term is used, and that is also how James Hansen uses this term when talking about the "responsibility for climate change". There is also the cumulative emissions for countries from an arbitrary baseline of the year 1750 and a total figure for the world as a whole.
I can see how this number for cumulative emissions will influence warming, although I did not know that it had a linear relationship.
Now, I am not sure what you mean by "Apparently, reducing the emissions rate without reducing the total amount of emissions would only postpone the year in which peak warming occurs - it would not reduce the severity of peak warming."
If by "total amount of emissions" you mean the amount of GHG gases that is still in the atmosphere (or maybe also including what's in the ocean above what was in the pre-industrial times, or some arbitrary point in time), then isn't the atmospheric CO2 concentration a direct measure of this amount? I understand that the total volume (or mass) itself is increasing, but considering the large percentage of N2 and O2, I think that increase in total can be neglected, and so the increase in CO2 ppm in the atmosphere can be taken as a direct measure of the total amount of GHG in the atmosphere.
Or if "total amount of emissions" means just that - the total amount, starting from some baseline year, then too, I would think that the relative amounts of carbon sink capacity at various points in time would clearly influence the level of warming, or even cooling. I have cited a couple of articles in the past that were based on research linking severe human "depopulation" and the consequent regrowth of forests with a certain amount of cooling. During those periods, the "cumulative" emissions must have been increasing, although at a slower rate, and the overall rate of absorption by the forests must have been higher than the overall rate of anthropogenic emissions, mostly from other parts of the world.
Or, "cumulative" emissions is used to mean a "net" increase in GHG.
Of course, atmospheric CO2 concentration is only an indicator, but a convenient one. But reducing it can be done only be reducing the amount of GHG gases still in the atmosphere, and that would require reducing the emissions at their source and increasing the carbon sink capacity.
As I've been typing all this, I must say, I am also beginning to see why reducing the cumulative emissions is key. And I also realize that it is not new - because that has been the main item of negotiations in all the climate talks so far. In fact, the "principle of common but differentiated responsibilities" is based on cumulative emissions, and for the purpose of the Kyoto Protocol, an arbitrary baseline of the year 1990 was chosen. It's just that I have not been keeping up with the actual numbers for the cumulative emissions, and instead been using the more convenient CO2 concentration figure.
That said, in practice, since shutting down all anthropogenic GHG emissions is considered not practical, the most we can try for is to drastically reduce the rate of emissions, starting with the biggest and concentrated sources of fossil fuel extraction and burning, and all non-essential consumption. AND to increase the carbon sink capacity by planting billions of trees and by putting an end to any further tropical deforestation. But this is where I clearly see these as "rates", and that the rate of carbon absorption by the biosphere SHOULD become higher than the rate of anthropogenic emissions in the near term -- and that is how the cumulative emissions can start to go down.
An analogy could be that of a bathtub where water is flowing in (the source) and also flowing out through the drain (the sink). When the rate of inflow is higher than the rate of outflow, the water level (analogous to the atmospheric concentration of CO2) and the total amount of water in the tub will increase. Now, if completely shutting down the inflow is not an option right now, then to reduce the total amount of water (or the water level), we could reduce the rate of inflow and increase the rate of outflow. But the total amount (and the water level) will start to go down ONLY when the rate of outflow is greater than the rate of inflow. Depending on how urgently and by how much we need to reduce the total water in the tub (or the level), we may have to drastically reduce the rate of inflow so that it is substantially less than the rate of outflow.
I completely understand where the author(s) of the RealClimate article "Hit the brakes hard" are coming from when they say,
>>"At the heart of it are the two papers which calculate the odds of exceeding a predefined threshold of 2°C as a function of CO2 emissions. Both find that the most directly relevant quantity is the total amount of CO2 ultimately released, rather than a target atmospheric CO2 concentration or emission rate. This is an extremely useful result, giving us a clear statement of how our policy goals should be framed. We have a total emission quota; if we keep going now, we will have to cut back more quickly later."<<
But I am completely uncomfortable with the use of the words "rather than a target atmospheric CO2 concentration or emission rate", because I think it is a needless assertion, unless prompted by some serious foot-dragging and intransigence by some governments -- which is not unlikely, of course.
Anyway, I was just thinking out aloud, so no need to beat this to death, I think. :)
The term "cumulative carbon emissions" is being used by the gang at RealClimate to connote ALL human-caused carbon emissions, throughout history and up until emissions totally cease. Ray Pierrehumbert estimates that sum to be half a trillion tonnes, so far - including deforestation.
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/perlim_2009_2010_estimates.html
The chart above from CDIAC doesn't track deforestation. The cumulative total of carbon emissions tracked by the CDIAC would be the area underneath the curve of yearly emissions. Because emissions growth is steep, it would only take a few decades for a BAU scenario to add another half-trillion tonnes.
"...the United States will increasingly come to resemble a Third World petro-state, with compliant government leaders, an increasingly money-ridden and corrupt political system,..."
Seems to me we're already have that. Our politics has been corrupted for decades by the corpora-fascists and banksters; it's just that more Americans have become recently aware as the 1%'ers have implemented more brazen tactics to achieve their strategy of neo-feudalism for all.
I can never figure out how/why the elitists, who proclaim to be so much freakin' smarter than the rest of us, haven't yet realized that they and their progeny are not evolved to the point where they can forgo breathing actual oxygen or drinking real H2O.
Yes amitola, Klare is way behind the curve as Oil Wealth polluted US politics long ago and provided the template for what we see elsewhere--Rockefeller was hated for good reasons. One of the more fantastical "studies" claiming that somehow North America will become the next Middle East energy-wise was produced by CitiBank--yes, the bank that ought to have gone bankrupt due to its inability to manage risk. It's so fantastical that it rated its own topic thread to set the record straight, which can be seen here, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9079
"Oil and banking are the two sides of the same coin."
Good point. Oil is the true currency and the dollar is its front.
There are differences, however, Republicans care about you before you're born and Democrats care a bit more afterward. The business interests bribe both parties -- let's quit calling it "contributions" and thus the similarity on business issues.
I posted this on Asia Times but it's worth reposting here:
In a previous important article Klare explained the relation of this new petro-strategy to the higher oil prices. The huge technological investments to get at this hard-to-get dirty sources is so costly that it is unprofitable with prices at less than $90 bbl.
This is probably the reasoning behind the sanctions on Iranian oil and the coming attack on the country. Far off and dirtier tar sands could become quite profitable at $150 bbl.
Good point, but eventually don't wages have to increase to enable anyone to pay the higher price? Wage increases are a no-no.
It's not just oil. Metallic sulfide mining corporations are also moving in to water rich environments such as the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, planning to pollute our waters forever. One mining company representative once said, "at least here [U.S.] no one is shooting at us." They tout jobs, patriotism, and "it's one of the largest mineral reserves in the world." One would think people would realize they're being had, especially when the same verbage is used no matter what state in the U.S. these companies want to mine in - but greed in this country knows no bounds - the almighty dollar is God. One nation under money.
Michael C. Ruppert in “Confronting the Collapse: The Crisis of Energy and Money in a Post-Peak Oil World” (Chelsea Green Publishing, 2009) uses Internet and public-domain sources to shoot down the myths that still drive America’s fall into dystopia and imminent collapse. He includes a section on shale and sand oil and gas extraction and what a farce that is. A delaying tactic to give the minions the impression that something is being done when, in fact, nothing of substance is going to help anyone but the elites. “One of the biggest villains in net energy calculations [What is the energy gained after subtracting the energy used to OBTAIN that so-called energy source?] are tar sands or so-called shale oil, coal-to-oil and ethanol,” Ruppert writes. Regarding shale oil: “No one claims they can actually make gasoline from this source. It has never been done on a profitable basis. While CNN glibly tosses out the ‘fact’ that there are ‘two trillion barrels of oil’ in shale, they neglect to mention that it is not oil at all, but an ‘oil-equivalent’ known as kerogen.” The theoretical process: “Shale has to be mined, transported, heated to about 8,500 degrees Fahrenheit and have hydrogen added to make it flow. Net energy recovery is low at best. It also takes several barrels of water to produce one barrel of oil…..Furthermore, energy companies are still years away—2015 at the earliest—from knowing whether this technology can be cost-effective commercially. It would take one ton of rock to produce enough fuel to last the average car two weeks…..If that is so, how many tons of rock would it take to power 270 million cars for one year? Answer: 7.02 TRILLION tons. Now add the hydrogen and probably the equivalent water (all of the fresh water flowing annually in the Colorado River) and you might have something. Oops, we forgot about the infrastructure didn’t we?” Ruppert exasperatedly and sarcastically continues: “We forgot about irrigating crops and drinking water. We forgot about energy used to heat shale to one-third the temperature of the sun.”
Kerogen isn't even an "oil equivalent." Kerogen is simply a hydrocarbon molecular chain present at the beginning of the natural process that produces coal, oil and natgas--it hasn't been subjected to the heat and pressure needed to transform the molecular chain into a more easilly extractable hydrocarbon. At the link are many articles dealing with kerogen and its rock, http://www.theoildrum.com/tag/oil_shale
This Wikipedia article describes Shell's attempts to wring oil from kerogen-rich shale, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahogany_Research_Project
Historically, oil shale has been burned directly to boil water for electricity generation. Kerogen should be considered the lowest grade of coal, so poor that only the very desperate will burn it for the limited amount of additional energy it will provide beyond that used to burn it.
Only under the circumstances of upstate new york should fracking be banned? Isnt contaminating water supplies bad no matter where it is done? Is it really acceptable to allow water in Oklahoma to be poisoned (after all there are democratic voters there, although a minority, they should not be punished for the idiocy of the Republican majority), while we only protect water in liberal states like New York? i think not.
I think you're 100% correct. .
"The “curse” of oil wealth is a well-known phenomenon in Third World petro-states where millions of lives are wasted in poverty and the environment is ravaged, while tiny elites rake in the energy dollars and corruption rules the land."
For shame, Michael. Don't you know you are bruising the sensibilities of my kountry klub elite friends and I, with your hints that there may be something wrong with our petro-gluttony? We each buy new 5 ton SUVs every two years, because we do what's good for Merka, to keep Merka strong. And we drive 100 miles a day, and burn up $700 of gasoline monthly, because we have faith in the system. Merka is the greatest country in the world. And we're the greatest people in the world. Everyone comes here because they know it too. And then you go upsetting our party, hinting that something is wrong with it all. We vote Demok in the elections. That fixes everything up, right? Don't we have our Demok servants clean up das konservative messes, so we can power on into the sunset in our new SUVs, guilt free?
"there aren’t many places left in the world that possess promising hydrocarbon reserves and also welcome investment by private energy giants"
Actually, we don't know much about hydrocarbon reserves. The press' coverage of hydrocarbon exploration is extremely sparse, almost nil. Nobody seems to notice, either. You might imagine the "progressive" press attempting some serious coverage as the "peak oil" phenomenon seems to be upon us. The people need to know what's going on to properly take over stewardship of public policy from the hamstrung elites. We have a lot of long-range visioning and planning to do. Where is the executive report?
My strong suspicion is that during this decade a new revelation will sweep the world that the continental shelves are chock full of new petro-reserves, and all the current peak oil estimates will need revision, and all the current policy debates will be nulled. We don't like that the energy we put into our policy-making be nulled by negligence. Today nobody mentions the continental shelves. Nobody says the continental shelves have or have not been explored. The press very much indicate to me that they are simply asleep on this issue and I would have to assume many, many others as well. Knowledge allows the people to set their policies with reality in mind. The people need to know what is going on. Luckily the people are rapidly starting to see the need to take control themselves, control of all institutions and sectors...
Poisoning of water supplies is and should be a crime. No one can reasonably disagree with that. But it is not some ordinary crime. It's a crime against nature itself. It's a crime against all living things.
It's a crime against regions, communities, families, or whole populations.
It's an extremely serious crime.
That is, unless you're a fracking company with enough paid-for influence in the U.S. government to be exempt from the laws binding the rest of us.
The poisoning of wells is one of the oldest forms of terror and one of the oldest techniques of war.
The poisoning of water supplies has effects which are not dependent upon good or bad intentions, or energy cravings, or economic desires.
It doesn't matter, to the animal or person or ecological system harmed or destroyed, what anyone's intentions or so-called "energy needs" are, any more than it matters to someone run over by a truck whether the driver did it on purpose or by accident.
The fracking companies are well aware they are poisoning areas of the natural waters of North America. It is not an accident. So if not an accident, what is it?
The long-term effect may well be depopulation of regions due to toxic ground and surface waters. Other long-term effects may be, and probably will be, birth defects and cancer. These effects will be multi-generational.
This deadly process has already happened locally many times in specific areas with non-fracking forms of chemical contamination. The poisoning of the environment from many industrial sources is continuous. Every minute it becomes more, and never less.
Poisoning of North American waters has a long history. It is worse now than it has ever been, and will continue to get worse unless Draconian changes are made.
We should also be aware that recycling Styrofoam cups or other similar faux-"green" activity does absolutely nothing to slow this process, and is useless except as a temporary feel-good measure.
Acre by acre, the land is made poisonous, and acre-foot by acre-food the water is made poisonous, because of human "energy needs" or human "economic factors", which short-sighted, greedy peolple seem to feel are somehow superior to the far more basic and critical need for clean water.
Our descendants will justifiably despise us.
Why is frac sand mining not mentioned here.
Sand mining issue is ripping apart the heartland of this country and there's virtually no mainstream media coverage of it.
Although the mining of silica sand has been going on for many years, the advent of hydro frac drilling for oil and natural gas in recent years has brought on a much greater demand for the silica sand.
The rolling hills and scenic bluffs of western Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota hide a valuable resource that has sparked what's been called a modern-day gold rush. The object of desire is not gold but a soft sandstone needed by natural gas, and oil suppliers for hydrofracking.
Nearly three-fourths of frac sand comes from the Midwest. It's shipped by rail hundreds of miles to the oil and gas fields of Texas, Pennsylvania and North Dakota, where drillers mix it with water, and chemicals. Or exported from many terminals to China, India.
Many, many frac-sand mines and processing facilities are operating, and an additional many sites are proposed, in a diagonal swath stretching across 15 Wisconsin counties from Burnett to Columbia, it has been found. Chippewa County has seen the most action, As of mid-January, the DNR had counted about 60 mines, 32 plants either operating or being built, and 20 more proposed mines — more than double the 41 mines or plants the Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism counted in mid-July 2011.
Most of the mining operations have sprung up over the past three years, stirring concerns about the effects on land and groundwater and health impacts on nearby residents.
Mining companies know there are no ordinances in place...no zoning powers. There is a lack of local land-use controls such as zoning that would allow them to manage the land rush. And despite concerns about the health and environmental impacts of such facilities, the state Department of Natural Resources has only a few regulations for sand mining operations, and say they are not equipped to deal with this invasion. Tsk, tsk! This has led to abuse, greed, for the nearly “inexhaustible” supply of this type of sand, which can fetch up to $200 a ton.