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Early Spring: A Not-So-Early Warning
March used to come in like a lion and go out like a lamb. Now it comes in like a lamb and goes out like a mouse. Although the vernal equinox occurred last Tuesday, some parts of the country have been experiencing spring-like, even summer-like, temperatures for several weeks.
In fact, March temperatures have shattered records across the Central and Eastern United States and much of Canada. Nearly 850 U.S. cities and towns notched record highs from March 15 through 22, according to Hamweather. Chicago, which suffered a deadly heat wave in 1995, experienced record highs six days in a row, from March 14 through 19, with temperatures above 80 degrees.
Climate scientists call this phenomenon "spring creep." For quite some time they've been projecting that man-made global warming would make spring arrive earlier than normal, and it is--an average of 10 days compared with just 20 years ago.
So what's the big deal? After a long winter--mild or not--who wouldn't welcome an early onset of warmer weather, daffodils and, here in Washington, cherry blossoms? Isn't that a good thing?
The short answer is no. Before becoming completely intoxicated by spring fever, let's consider some of the drawbacks. True, it's not that difficult for people to adjust to spring creep--at least the fortunate ones among us who don't have allergies. But it's much more difficult for some plants and animals, and their success or failure could have a major impact on us.
Cherry-Rigged Blossom Festival. A hundred years ago, Japan gave thousands of cherry trees to Washington, D.C. Over the years, that gift blossomed into a major springtime tourist destination, now attracting more than a million visitors and generating some $125 million annually. The average date for peak bloom is April 4, but consecutive days over 70 degrees prompted the National Park Service to predict peak bloom would happen on March 20, the first day of spring.
Last week, the Washington Post ran a front-page story on a recent study by University of Washington scientists projecting that global warming could push peak D.C. cherry blossom bloom to early March within this century. A worst-case scenario of unchecked carbon emissions would trigger cherry blossom bloom as much as two weeks earlier on average by 2050 and a month earlier by 2080.
Lead scientist Soo-Hyung Kim and his colleagues, who work at the university's College of the Environment, recognize that such scheduling changes could cause headaches for the D.C. tourism industry, the capital's second largest. "Cherry blossom festivals of spring are culturally and economically important events," they wrote. "And successful planning requires that the cherry blossoms appear as expected within the festival period.
"Our results suggest that the timing of [peak bloom] and the window of the National Cherry Blossom Festival ... may mismatch toward the second half of this century."
The National Park Service is very aware of this problem and is investigating ways to ensure that festival dates match peak bloom.
Honey? I Shrunk the Choices. "Mismatch" is the key word. Besides disappointing tourists, scientists are finding that spring creep can create disconnects when some plants bud earlier and the wildlife that depends on them have not adjusted their internal clocks.
If you like certain kinds of honey, that means that you may be out of luck.
The tulip poplar tree is blooming earlier this year, for example, and bees, still on traditional bee time, may have missed their window of opportunity, said Jake Weltzin, an ecologist with the U.S. Geological Service and the executive director of the USA National Phenology Network, a federal program that tracks seasonal pattern changes. Meanwhile, the black locust tree, another major honey plant, is blooming on schedule, providing the bees with an alternative for nectar. "So this year, tulip poplar honey will not be available at your local farmers market, but black locust honey will be," said Weltzin. "But it's not as tasty as tulip poplar honey."
Invasives Win, Natives Lose. Climate mismatch also appears to favor invasive species over native species. Three papers, one published last month and previous ones from 2008 and 2010, found that to be the case at Walden Pond in Concord, Massachusetts. The papers contrasted the status of plant species today with how they fared in the 1850s as documented by Henry David Thoreau.
The February paper, by Boston University biology professor Richard Primack and Acadia National Park Science Coordinator Abraham Miller-Rushing, focused on 43 plant species. They found that "the plants in Concord, on average, are now flowering 10 days earlier than they were in Thoreau's time." Like the earlier papers, Primack and Miller-Rushing discovered that native plants that have maintained their historic flowering schedule are not doing well. These include many of the area's most "charismatic" wildflowers, such as dogwoods, lilies, orchids and roses. The two scientists concluded that 27 percent of the species Thoreau and others recorded in Concord are now extinct in the area, and another 36 percent of then-common species are barely hanging on.
Conversely, the study reaffirmed that invasive plants presently in Concord, such as the purple loosestrife, have the most flexible flowering dates and have shifted them to coincide with the earlier arrival of spring. That flexibility has allowed them to flourish at the expense of the native plants.
The findings of these three papers, which likely are emblematic of what is happening across New England and possibly the Mid-Atlantic, are significant given damages from invasive species across the country amount to more than $100 billion a year.
Time to Act. What can we do about this disturbing state of affairs? Unfortunately, even if we stopped all global warming emissions today, average world temperatures would continue to rise because carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases remain in the atmosphere for decades. So we are going to have to adapt no matter what. That said, we can avoid the worst consequences of climate change by dramatically reducing emissions. That would mean phasing out coal, oil and eventually natural gas and ramping up our reliance on renewable energy technologies and cutting energy demand through aggressive energy efficiency initiatives.
It can be done, and in a follow-on blog next month I will offer some suggestions on how we can cut our individual contribution to global warming.
It's time for all of us to spring into action, the earlier the better.
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21 Comments so far
Show AllThis article expresses bizarre priorities. No poplar honey for your cracker, confusion for cherry-blossom aficionados? It's strange to hear such lightweight banter from the UCS, which has done good work to raise awareness on the seriousness of global warming.
One grave consequence of a longer warm season (conspicuously unmentioned here) is the ability of bark beetles to get in an extra generation per year - exponentially increasing their numbers and the rate of forest destruction they are causing. Dying forests go from carbon sink to carbon source, and the extra CO2 leads to more forest destruction - a vicious cycle.
"Double Trouble From Mountain Pine Beetles?"
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/19/double-trouble-from-mountain-pine-beetles/
You are right on man. What we are seeing is the complete breakdown of the planet's compensatory systems. With this, the consequences are soo severe, that a few thousand pages would not suffice. Our children and our children's children will remember this generation's folly. For my part- I will not let this generation forget and will devote what I can to avert the worst of what will come. We are individually and collectively responsible. Not just the corporate robber barons and their political servants- but us- you and I.
How do you "get in an extra generation" when the Mountain Pine Beetle requires a winter freeze to develop from larvae to pupae? Their cycle requires 4 seasons to develop from egg to adult. The article that you link to makes no sense because it presumes that the beetle can develop from egg to adult in one season which is impossible.
The authors (I have seen better science done by school children) would be in a better position if they stated that adults were observed to lay twice as many eggs in Summer. Their article belongs in the "bad science" bin.
Jus' sayin'!
WTF- you certainly are an expert on childish behavior, wether your opinion of school children or scientist. Are you disputing the early onset of "spring" activity by the plants?
Just what are you "Jus Sayin"!"? WTF wtf, why don't you come with something mature, like your own explanation for the exponential increase in beetle activity?
Your premise is "bullshit", as in: go fuck yourself. The climate is changing, the plants don't argue about, they know it is useless to try and communicate with an errant fool like yourself about it- they are just trying to survive- kind of like human beings. It is not too late, choose love, return to humanity.
Your cynical attitude is no defense, not amusing either.
Thanks for the ad hominems. Do you have anything other than shit to say?
I criticized the article published in "The American Naturalist", which, like the Audubon monthly rag, is a colorful pictorial that is NOT peer-reviewed. Hence the lack of scientific reasoning in the article.
Why don't you defend their conclusions, rather than attacking the messenger, especially when you know NOTHING about me. You claim I am anti-CC.... based on what evidence? That I criticized a pretty article that you liked?
Listen up. I've been behind climate change since the 80s, and I am compelled to shoot down errant articles that, because of the bad science therein, will eventually become tools for the CC-deniers. Spreading articles like this just plays into the hand of the deniers because they point to the lack of the scientific method, underwritten by the zealous, no, extremist, nature of the authors.
As for stating my own belief for the increase in beetle population, I did state that perhaps the adults gestated twice, a likely scenario given the longer warm season.
If you want to play the patsy, please do so where no-one can hear you.
The UCS is a pretty donor-beaten organization. So, they are appealing to the trivial things their well-off suburbam donors can relate to.
For example, you will never see the UCS call for improved public transportation because their donor base would never be seen riding on the bus.
Right- and your donor base would not pay for such a call to action either. Your insults harm yourself, not the UCS- be fearless, choose love, it is not too late for you to enjoy happiness.
Not to worry. By the time the cherry blossoms are blooming in early March, DC will be underwater from polar ice cap melting driven ocean level rise...
From NOAA, Fort Wayne Indiana record weather;
"RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT FORT WAYNE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES WAS TIED YESTERDAY. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 83 WAS SET IN 1907.
YESTERDAY MARKED THE 10TH CONSECUTIVE DAY IN THE 70S WHICH IS TIED
WITH 1910 FOR THE LONGEST STREAK IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE LONGEST
STREAK WAS IN 1910 WHEN THERE WERE 10 CONSECUTIVE DAYS GREATER THAN
OR EQUAL TO 70 DEGREES.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SET FOR 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THIS
IS THE LONGEST STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 7 CONSECUTIVE DAYS FROM JULY 8-14...1936.
FORT WAYNE HAS HIT 80 DEGREES 5 TIMES THIS MONTH WHICH IS THE MOST
NUMBER OF 80+ DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 4 DAYS
IN 1910."
So far March is averging 15.9 degrees above normal in Fort Wayne.
My pear tree has bloomed with apple and plum not far behind and the wild turkey's are mating a month earlier than normal. The normal last frost date for the area is May 1 thru 10.
The ten day forecast has every day above normal so a return to normal weather in a few weeks could destroy the north central Indiana 2012 fruit crop.
Yeah. Food Crash.
Won't mass starvation be a bitch?
So, tell me again, how is millions of people NOT flying to D.C. to see the cherry blossoms bloom bad for the environment?
But isn't it nice that our Great Leader took advantage of one of these marvelously warm spring days to announce his support for the Keystone XL pipeline? And right at the end of Lent, too, when he gave all 7 billion of us, and billions of future citizens of the world, a big Judas Iscariot kiss?
Surreal doesn't describe it anymore. Bush made satire obsolete,
Obama makes surreality obsolete.
.
As I said to my son, only yesterday:
"March used to come in like a lion and go out like a lamb. Now it comes in like a lamb and goes out like roasted lamb."
Just another day in paradise.
http://64.38.12.138/News/2012/004859.asp
"That would mean phasing out coal, oil and eventually natural gas and ramping up our reliance on renewable energy technologies and cutting energy demand through aggressive energy efficiency initiatives."
Translation: Changing our culture from one of mass dependence on sugar-daddy to one of mass self-determination. It's important to make that connection between the correct energy policy and the correct political philosophy. These connections between all things good cannot be emphasized enough. But these connection between all things good were shattered by elite propaganda. So the people could not see that the whole of good is immense, easy to recognize, easy to defend. But this is changing today. The people are starting to see through the elites' tangled confusion and lies, and are seeing that all good is connected into a whole. So it's easy to do everything right, when you see that everything right is connected together. When you see that what's good for your spirit, self-determination, resonates with what is good for the biosphere. It becomes automatic for the people to do everything that is good. Piece of cake. Simple. After we learn to ignore the elites' stupid propaganda.
It seems like it may be a 100 year cycle is being matched or broken. Some plants are really confused in my area of the SouthEast. The Pine Beetle is on a destructive march through non-native species of Pine and some of the native species. A frost or 'freeze' happens almost every year, but the beetle became a real problem over 30 years ago. Warming is gradual thankfully. The last frost date is between March 15 and April 15. This is the first year in a long time that it has been warm in March and no frost in sight. It would be disaster for fruit and berry if there were a killing frost now. Many have vegetable gardens planted and some already up. No matter what is causing the early Spring, I hope it stays spring until summer. Glad everyon thinks we should be moderating the heat increase before we are the roasted lambs.
Not to look a gift horse in the mouth, but I worry about the consequences that lay in store for all of us down the road. Will there be 110-120 degree temps in the summertime, for example, and many more mosquitoes?
There was a time when mosquitoes were merely annoying. Those days are long gone..and aren't coming back.