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Mitt Romney Still Can't Seal the Deal on Super Tuesday
The idea of the GOP primary season is to produce not just a nominee but a candidate who unites the party. That's not Mitt
There are some things, even in American electoral politics, that money can't buy. It can get an organisation, ads and attention. But it cannot make you engaging, compelling or authentic. In short, it can't buy you love. And as Mitt Romney keeps showing, week after week, if the voters don't really like you, then you just have to spend as much money as you can making sure they don't like anybody else either.
Mitt Romney on Super Tuesday. (Photo: Jessica Rinaldi/Reuters)
Of the ten states that voted on Super Tuesday, Romney won six and bagged the most delegates. Ordinarily, that would be a great night. Until you realise that Newt Gingrich (who wants to build a colony on the moon) won one, Georgia; and Rick Santorum (who is against contraception) got three, Tennessee, North Dakota and Oklahoma. The totemic prize of Ohio went down to the wire.
This is a weak field with little money and fewer smarts. The fact that the Romney campaign eked out narrow victories in crucial places is cause for relief in his camp – and concern within the Republican hierarchy – but not elation.
It's like England in the last game of the 2010 World Cup soccer qualifiers, when they had to pray for victory against Slovenia and that Algeria didn't score a hatful of goals against the US. True, they eventually qualified. But in doing so, they laid bare their frailties and were roundly defeated in the next round.
Given the competition, the fact that the Romney campaign is planning for a long-drawnout delegate fight is a bit like Italy aiming to get through their regional qualifiers on goal difference. Romney should not be winning by "enough"; he should be winning by a lot.
And so, the Republican primary race dragged on Tuesday night, with talking heads and desperate anchors providing running commentary on an open sore. Romney, yet again, failed to seal the deal on the nomination, and no other candidate presented themselves as a viable alternative.
The six states that Romney took included Massachusetts (where he lives), Vermont (the state next door) and Virginia (where neither Gingrich nor Santorum had got it together to be on the ballot), as well as Alaska, Idaho and Ohio. The latter was the one he had to win, and his victory there followed a familiar trend. He entered the last leg, trailing.
Having seen in him in debates and maybe on the stump, voters go in search of an alternative. Any alternative. And then comes the money: millions of it pouring in to TV and radio stations, mostly trashing his opponents. Romney outspent Santorum in Ohio four to one. Add that to a superior organisation, a divided opposition, a roll-out of high-level endorsements (including Barbara Bush), and Romney squeaked home on the day by less than 1%.
The fact that he has won the most delegates is significant, but not sufficient. Primaries are not simply a means to get the best headcount, come the convention. They are supposed to introduce a candidate to the base so that the nominee can build a coalition to rally the party for the general election. Romney's candidacy is, if anything, doing the opposite. He was far stronger when everyone assumed he would win than he is now when he is actually winning.
Once again, Tuesday night, Romney won the rich and the well-educated and lost the party's base, white working-class, non college-educated men. The more likely you were to vote Romney, the more likely you were to have reservations about your choice of candidate. All of this will get worse before it gets better. The next week will see votes in Mississippi, Alabama (southern states where he's likely to lose) and Kansas (a midwestern one where he may well struggle).
True, he took Florida, but Gingrich won the panhandle (the southern region). Other than there, Romney has yet to win a single state in the South that was seriously contested, or struggle to more than a narrow victory in the Midwest, including Michigan, the state where he was born and raised. The first is the region of the Republican heartland; the second is the region where much of the election will be decided.
And the longer the contest goes on, the more entrenched becomes the framing of him as an ineffectual candidate who is identified with elites. Gingrich referred to him during his acceptance speech as "Wall Street". Not "like Wall Street". Just "Wall Street".
It was not a great night for the other candidates, either. Gingrich has stayed in on the dubious grounds that if he won his home state, he can win the country. Santorum has now proved that he is both a contender – winning Tennessee by double digits, in particular, was impressive – but not in serious contention. After losing Michigan, he needed to win Ohio to lay claim to the Midwest and the Reagan Democrats. His failure to do so indicates that while he can wound Romney, he lacks the capacity to land a fatal blow.
So, once again, Romney wins the elections and loses the narrative. The frontrunner who has the best coaches, agents and sneakers money can buy has to keep looking over his shoulder because he cannot get into his stride. Sometimes, rich guys just can't catch a break.
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14 Comments so far
Show AllMitt is sealing the deal. Mitt has 404 del. Santorum 165 del. Gingrich 106 del. Paul 66 del. Mitt has 404/741 so far - 54.5%. At this rate he will win on the first ballot at the convention. All that is happening now is that his zealous egomaniac opponents are helping elect (D)s in November. The American people are getting a good look at who (R)s really are and it is not pretty. 'I see you.'
Mittens, after spending months denying he is not who he was, and is definitely not who he was before that, seals the deal by promising every religious fundamentalist, their very own rainbow farting unicorn to go with their $1.50/gallon gas.
And the bad News is that Obama likely wins & the status quo remains just as it is Now- IE: Obama wins & the People Lose -or- Romney wins & the people still LOSE!
The scary part is that despite all of Mitt Romney's obvious flaws, speaking gaffes, and inherent weakness as a presidential nominee for a political party whose rank and file base is heavily laced with fundamentalist Christian theocrats, running head-to-head against Barack Obama "Mittens" still has a good chance of winning in the general election.
Never forget, this time around the polling places and the ballot-tabulating mechanisms in more states will be even more firmly entrusted to Republican partisan operatives' hands than it was the case in 2000 and 2004. Bush versus Gore is still the gift that keeps on giving. Romney's problems with his GOP base is more than balanced off by Obama's problems with his traditional Democratic base and with independent voters. It's very likely to be close enough to steal.
Bill from Saginaw
One thing Mitt has going for him is that he is winning the blue states. The Red states will vote for him in the end regardless. You are right, this presidential vote has the smell of theft all over it. Elections have become like prize fighting since 2000. You have to win 'decisively' or the judges will decide.
My central grief is that the federal election system has been stolen from the American people. All of the horse racing is subsidiary to this overriding tragedy and crime.
And when in the past exactly did the federal election system belong to the American people?
Romney will win the nomination easily. He has shown that the T-Party is a paper tiger that is too fractious and crazy to come up with a winning strategy or candidate.
There will be plenty of money for Romney to spend. His organization is excellent, the best money can buy. He will be able to count on all kinds of state-based voter suppression laws and other tactics. he will be adequate in debating Obama, backed by the research he has used effectively in debating Gingrich and Santorum. The racist T-Party and other right wingers will rally to him as the Great White Hope against the uppity Black man.
Romney will give Obama a tough fight, make no mistake. Nobody liked Nixon either, but he won, beginning a long period of Republican dominance interrupted only by Democrats who operated within the framework of that dominance, as Obama has done.
As Bill from Saginaw puts it:
"Never forget, this time around the polling places and the ballot-tabulating mechanisms in more states will be even more firmly entrusted to Republican partisan operatives' hands than it was the case in 2000 and 2004. Bush versus Gore is still the gift that keeps on giving."
The "irregularities" in this election are going to outnumber Putin's by at least an order of magnitude. The Russian press will be watching very closely; and laughing.
The low turnout is the only thing helping Rick the Insane outside the land of facism where I grew up. The Florida panhandle is right wing loony Heaven. But it has often voted opposite the rest of the state quite often.
Miami is also moving more and more to the right with all the fanatical anti Castro Cuban exiles still trying to fight the Cold War by their crusade against Castro.
The more Mitt Romney opens his mouth and spends his Mormon millions , the more it aids the revival of the "Bush brand" in the person of Jeb Bush. Another Bush, surely you jest?!! Would anybody be stupid enough to actually want to do such a thing?
Jeb is religious (Roman Catholic) but unlike either Romney (Mormon) or Santorum (another Roman Catholic) only nominally so.
Jeb is obscenely wealthy (he's a Bush after all!) but not ostentatiously so.
Jeb (like in the Kennedy family) is the heir to a well-connected family political tradition, but unlike the Kennedy's has no intention of crossing either the national security, corporate fascist, or organized crime establishments.
Jeb is (most importantly of all) totally dedicated to the New World Order nonsense of his family from grandpa Prescott to big brother George--but not so evangelically "in your face" about it.
Most of all Jeb has a fascist heart just as malevolently black as any corporate fascist who ever walked the earth.
Stay tuned.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57384567-503544/jeb-bush-calls-gop-rhetoric-troubling/
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/former-white-house-chief-of-staff-jeb-bush-is-the-perfect-candidate/
It might be a brokered convention and here's why:
http://pauldrockton.com/Romney4.html