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The Gas Wars
Nothing drives voter sentiment like the price of gas – now averaging $3.56 a gallon, up 30 cents from the start of the year. It’s already hit $4 in some places. The last time gas topped $4 was 2008.
And nothing energizes Republicans like rising energy prices. Last week House Speaker John Boehner told Republicans to take advantage of voters’ looming anger over prices at the pump. On Thursday House Republicans passed a bill to expand offshore drilling and force the White House to issue a permit for the Keystone XL pipeline. The tumult prompted the Interior Department to announce on Friday expanded oil exploration in the Arctic.
If prices at the pump continue to rise, expect more gas wars.
In fact, oil prices are rising for three reasons — none of which has to do with offshore drilling or the XL pipeline.
The first, on the supply side, is Iran’s decision to cut in oil exports to Britain and France in retaliation for sanctions put in place by the EU and United States. Iran’s threat to do this has been pushing up crude oil prices for weeks.
The second, on the demand side, is rising hopes for a global economic recovery – which would mean increased oil consumption. The American economy is showing faint signs of a recovery. Europe’s debt crisis appears to be easing. Greece’s pending bailout deal is calming financial nerves on both sides of the Atlantic, and the Bank of England and European Central Bank are keeping rates low. At the same time, China has decided to boost its money supply to spur growth there.
Neither of these would have much effect were it not for the third reason — overwhelming bets of hedge funds and other money managers that oil prices will rise on the basis of the first two reasons.
Speculators have pushed crude oil to $105.28 per barrel, up 35 percent since September. Brent crude, Europe’s benchmark, is now $120.37 a barrel – also worrisome because many East Coast refineries use imported oil.
Funny, I don’t hear Republicans rail against speculators. Could that have anything to do with the fact that hedge funds and money managers are bankrolling the GOP as never before?
But that’s okay. The gas wars may come to a screeching halt before too long, anyway. So many bets are being placed on rising oil prices that the slightest hint the speculators are wrong – almost any sign of expanding supply or declining demand – will set off a sharp drop in oil prices similar to the record one-day fall on May 5 of last year.
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64 Comments so far
Show Allstop the speculation, which is driven by the oil companies, and gas prices will normalize.
Wild day-to-day and month-to-month swings in oil prices are driven by speculators. But long-term trends in oil prices are ultimately driven by supply and demand.
Petroleum is a finite resource. The low-hanging fruit already has been picked (and burned). Maintaining production to feed the planet's 85-million-barrel-a-day addiction to the stuff requires more exploration, deeper drilling, application of more expensive technologies. Meanwhile, the global population is at 7 billion and rising exponentially. Every day thousands of new people in places like China, India, and Brazil are driving cars, competing on the world market for the same barrels of oil we in the U.S. want.
So, needless to say, I am shocked, shocked, that global petroleum prices continue to rise with each passing year.
Don't our leaders realize that a guaranteed endless supply of cheap gasoline to sustain our happy-motoring lifestyle is embedded in the U.S. Constitution?
It's not speculation. It's gambling.
Gambling is as much internal as external. Internally, it produces endorphins which, like keys, fit into a tumbler and - voila - you have Pleasure.
Capitalism is a casino.
Trylon
"Capitalism is a casino." -- Trylon
Exactly!!
"Capitalism is a casino."
And on this, it's vulnerable. Obama busted the speculators the last time merely by releasing oil from the strategic reserve. That's one action of his that I applaud. He should try to time it this time to maximize the losses of the speculators, but the biggest ones will undoubtedly be tipped off in time to sell ahead of the curve ...
You mean the Obama admin would dare tipoff goldman sachs and jp Morgan?
Since both companies have dozens of former and future employees running the Obama admin economic team I'd say that is a given.
RVingRetiree
Somebody remembered.
I live in the urban South, in a working-class neighborhood, and I can tell you that concerns with the environment or fuel economy are absolutely foreign concepts to many people around here, including Democrats.
Muscle cars like the Charger and the new Camaro have replaced Lincoln Navigators and Cadillac Escalades as status symbols, and since most people who drive them don't care about the environment or appreciate the natural world, they would almost certainly support (or at least accept without criticism) any policy that would keep gas prices down, whether it was violence against Iran or drilling off the North Carolina and Florida coasts.
While I can understand that some environmentalism can seem like an issue only for the privileged, my point is that Obama's success rests in part on a demographic whose attitudes undermine any hopes of progressive change in our energy policies.
Why do they buy such cars or big pickups trucks, drive them 100 miles every day, then complain about the price of gasoline?
I suspect that the area you live in is more suburban than urban. Genuinely urban areas have public transportation or walkability as an alternative - that is, if the public transportaion service isn't facing deep cuts, as it is in my formerly car-optional city that until recently got high ratings for livability.
I like high gasoline prices. I quietly cheer the signs at the gas station on as I ride by on my electric motor scooter or the bus. The price of gasoline must start reflecting it environmental and social impacts. Only then will people change their habits and demand alternatives to the car. I'd prefer the cost of gasoline be raised through taxes which then fund offsetting benefits like public transportaion and improvements to urban spaces, as it is in Europe. But, if it is through speculation, so be it.
I, too, am amazed at the every day Joe who seems to need bigger and more powerful vehicles with each passing year. Come to Johnson County Kansas and see how soccer Moms need the Suburban XL to get Suzy and Billy to prep school in style. How the Dad needs a Ford F350 to stop by and grab a gallon of milk on the way home. I often wonder why Kenworth and Peterbilt did not jump in to the market with an offering for the bold rugged outdoorsy type who may need to tow a Yacht down to the lake some day. I really think no one is paying attention. Scoff at the handwriting. We simply need to prove we are better by driving the biggest we can afford. If ours rumbles louder than the neighbor's, we are somebody.
Ya know, I'm definitely for getting rid of fossil fuels and do understand peak oil. But when you say you like high gas prices, consider that most of us, with kids and mortgages and other bills, especially medical bills (even with insurance) need someaffordable way to get to work.....if we live in a rural area. Now, I lived in long Island for 23 ys.... I moved there when I was 18. I finally moved back to where I am from in the Southerntier of NY. I needed a house and one reason I wanted one was to grow my own food. But this was in 2004. This was before I knew anything about peak oil or even much about climate change. NOt every one was born with or brought up with this knowledge with in them. So, to get to work, I drive 36 mi. There is nothing closer that will cover my basic living expenses and bills. I would have done things differently if I had understood the situation we are in, earlier in life. But as many people are stuck in this system.... I have to choose between buying enough groceries for the two weeks between checks and paying for bills and gas.
To me, a better way of raising money for alternatives and mass transit, is to raise taxes on the rich, who have gotten away with lying, stealing and doing anything they could to become bloated rich. Tax heavens and you name it... have unbalanced our economic system and the planet. When a rich person can run his/her leer jet all over the world, burn up massive amounts of fuel for what? I just want to get to work. I am currently looking for closer work but it's not shown up yet. Like I said, when the gas issue comes up, rurual people are always left out of the equation. NOT EVERY SINGLE ONE OF US CAN LIVE IN THE CITY. Like I said, I grow a lot of my own food. Also, I really would not take out a loan for a brand new electrric car or any new car for that matter, since I don't trust the economy to supply job stabiliy. I would hate to not beable to pay back for my car. PLus, not every one could get a loan.
Let's face it WE ARE STUCK IN A SYSTME AND WE CAN'T GET OUT!!!!!!!
(But I am workign and thinking hard on a solutions however.
And how 'bout them mighty all-American trucks that get a whopping 12-15 miles to the gallon? The oil companies and U.S. car/truck manufacturers decided to cut back on fuel efficiency. With so many lies passing for truths these days, a lot of people have come to falsely conclude that it's liberals who want to create a carbon tax that's behind the whole "ruse" around climate change. The most amazing part is that a lot of people from this demographic were directly hit by Texas fires/heat wave, floods along the Mississippi, and other freak weather events. But leave it to the likes of Hate Radio and/or Rush Limbaugh to massage their egos telling them climate change is something dreamt up by East Coast liberals to stuff Al Gore's future campaign coffers, and they'll buy it.. as they sign their own death warrants in the ways they so selfishly add to global climate chaos. Sadly, it'll be the natives of low-lying tropical islands asked to go first into the great Oblivion.
For every SUV getting 12 mpg, carmakers will have to sell a vehicle getting 97 mpg (or two getting 76 mpg) by 2025, under the Obama Administration's current CAFE initiative:
"After years of wrangling on the issue, auto companies, regulators and policymakers have finally come to terms on increased Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for vehicles plying American roads. According to the plan as formulated by the Obama administration, automakers will double the average, unadjusted fuel-economy rating of their car and light truck vehicle fleets to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025 from today’s standard of 27 miles per gallon."
Of course this now has be approved by Congress. So I guess this plan could unravel as quickly as you can say "I hate Al Gore so I don't believe in global warming."
Watch out, Craw. Your comment sounds suspiciously sympathetic towards Obama, which means you may get sent to CD Re-education Camp for 18-24 months.
Donny-Don, this was a stupid comment that attempts to support the pro-Obama chimera that left opponents of Obama are some kind of Stalinoid purists.
It's hateful propaganda masked in a feeble attempt at humor. The humor is employed because a straightforward defense of Obama is difficult to square with leftist and humanist values; so you need to make your point by throwing slurs at Obama's many detractors here who keep this place from becoming another obambot infested rathole of lies, deceit and apologies for 1% Obama's cruel and imperialistic policies.
Well said! Mr. Obama will say anything to get re-elected. He may be sending legislation to Congress on CAFE standards that he knows won't be passed. It's just like his punt on the tar sands pipeline. I would like people to judge him by his dismal progressive record rather than his head fakes and sleight of hand tricks. The O-bots are hallucinating and will find out that they've been tricked again when the drug wears off. I don't think any of the two parties stand for the common person. The sooner people realize this, the sooner we can work to get out of the deep hole we've been put in..
Exactly as I predicted. Craw, you are now officially an "O-bot". You should be ashamed of yourself, you running capitalist dog.
Is that the best you can do Donny Don? Pretty feeble. It's easy to predict hat Carw would be labeled an Obot because s/he is mouthing the typical Obait propaganda.
So your bragging about your prophecy skills is pathetic, as was your previous comment.
"By 2025"?! Gee thank you St Obama.
I have a low opinion of Al Gore and his noblesse oblige spinelessness. His continued leadership of the establishment faction of the Global Warming movement is indicative of how easily that movement can be diluted and co-opted to conform with the interests of the 1%. This is quite different from the idiotic straw man parody that you present here.
Similarly, the desire to lower petroleum consumption can be and is frequently distorted into "higher gas prices are a wonderful thing, and f-ck the rural poor, let them all move to cities. Who cares about the upward redistributive effect - just a bunch of antiquated marxist thinkers!" I've read variations on this theme on CD whenever the topic comes up, by those supposing to represent the vanguard of the Green movement.
Drive less. When possible buy local foods. Reduce your trash. Scare economists.
1. Prices reported for crude oil are for the relatively low volume "spot market", typically for delivery in 30-90 days. Major oil companies insure their big supplies with with much longer term contracts and production from their own fields which insulates them from erratic short term market pricing. Nevertheless, retail pump prices quickly jump in response to any speculative increases in the spot market, long before the higher priced crude could reach the end buyer. Cha-ching.
2. Massive mergers of the past 15 years have reconsolidated control of the U.S. retail gasoline market among a few giant oil companies. Nowhere is the effect of this more obvious than the way pump prices go up simultaneously among all brands, all over town. This occurs much faster (within hours) than the resupply cycle to the stations. Cha-ching.
3. Of course reciprocal collusion extends to our friends in government. Recall 2008 when Exxon and others reported record profits for the 2nd quarter as the pump price went over $4/gallon, followed that August by a $14billion tax break given those deserving folks in the oil industry by congress. And now we've got super PACs to return the favor. Cha-ching.
4. Let us not forget National City Lines, a consortium by GM, Firestone, Esso (now Exxon) and others that purchased street car companies throughout the U.S. and replaced the highly efficient electric rail lines with buses to build the market for motor vehicles, tires and petroleum fuels.Look it up to see how, despite Federal indictments, the plot worked and virtually eliminated street cars by 1960. Cha-ching.
Smart post, Skeptimist. There's another variable that's very effective for short term price spikes: an approaching hurricane. As a Florida resident, I can tell you, when one of those monsters is scheduled to blow in, gas station lines can go for a mile...and prices rise exponentially. It always scares me that the big trucks load up 25-40 gallons and leave me, with my little Toyota, without any gas in the pump. In the case of a dangerous weather event, this type of imbalance become all the more relevant.
To all those who are worried about the political consequences of rising gas prices for Obama: A few months of $5 a gallon gasoline will exact a huge price on Obama's reelecton possibilities. Didn't petroleum executives make the threat that Obama would pay a political price for opposing him. They can control the price through speculative mechanisms and market control of supply. My contention is not what Reich seems to think: that the market will clear the price since this present rise is just a small speculative bubble. My view is that they will jack the price up and hold it through the election. In that case even a candidate as outrageous as Santorum will look like a good vehicle to express the rage and resentment which the public will have. In a way Obama deserves it because he has not done what is needed to regulate the commodities market and to protect the public interest.
...or create alternatives to gasoline usage.
Personally, I'm tired of the way gasoline, cars, traffic, and other car-related topics dominate USAn conversations and worries. It's madness.
No it is not madness. It is a rational response on the partof people who are dependent on autos for their transporation needs.
It's a rational response to people concerned that rising petro prices mean rising prices in general and economic stagnation.
I think I had this deabte with you when you were posing as sabocat. You are again revealing an arrogance and myopic POV here.
The saber-rattling with Iran may pose the precise mechanism for keeping oil prices high. Wasn't this also done with Iraq? Just the threat of war and reduced gas flow/access prove profitable for oil merchants and those who bet on them. It wouldn't be the first time the threat of war was used to keep the Energy Moguls happy. And who knows, those with their foot on the gas--in determining whether to initiate a conflagration with Iran--know they hold Obama's future in their hands, too. The love of money makes for strange bed-fellows and other temporal allies. It's not easy to determine who's got their foot on the brakes here, either.
Prior to the escalation of the Iraqi Holocaust, oil production was rising very rapidly in an attempt to match alltime record demand. Here's a graph showing oil price, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Brent_Spot_monthly.svg And many slides in this presentation document demand growth and the attempt at supply, http://www.aspo-usa.org/conference/2011/presentations/110311%200900%20ASPO%20Peak%20Oil%20Update%20Skrebowski.pdf
The Brent price graph shows oil price trending down over the past 6-8 months after peaking at $123.26 in April 2011. WTI is the price reported by US media and has traded at an unnatural discount to Brent for well over a year, as this spreadsheet shows, http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/xls/pet_pri_spt_s1_m.xls
Finally, there's the worrisome net oil export numbers, which is the real fiorce driving price as this slide depicts, http://i1095.photobucket.com/albums/i475/westexas/Slide11.jpg and which comes from this presentation, http://www.aspo-usa.org/conference/2011/presentations/110311%201400%20ASPO%20China%20and%20Middle%20East%20Brown.pdf
Reich missed the most obvious reason for increasing gasoline prices: The closing of a number of refineries no longer able to make a profit in the US Northeast, the US Virgin Islands, Trinidad, the UK, and EU. Thus the excess gasoline that was produced by European refineries and exported to the US and the return stream of diesel going from the US to Europe is about to dry up. And all that is rather old news.
Reason 4:
The insatiable drive to destroy the planet looking for more of the worst and dirtiest sources of energy while excluding any innovative way of controlling energy which cannot be created or destroyed, only manipulated for reuse. If it ain't coal, natural gas, nuclear, oil, then it isn't a money maker like those are.
But isn't it a great life.
Max Keiser interviews a man, Charles Hugh Smith, who reports that gas sales have gone off a cliff!
Keiser Report: KR251
www.maxkeiser.com
Reich, the consumate insider offers:
"The American economy is showing faint signs of a recovery. Europe’s debt crisis appears to be easing. Greece’s pending bailout deal is calming financial nerves on both sides of the Atlantic, and the Bank of England and European Central Bank are keeping rates low. At the same time, China has decided to boost its money supply to spur growth there."
To endorse the deceptive art of printing money, a/k/a "easements" with an economic improvement is pretty sickening. One should re-read Ellen Brown's article (published yesterday) for a far more incisive accounting of the likely implosion of the current house of cards posing as a sane global economy.
Reich does his part to keep the circus tent inflated...
Siouxrose:
You nailed it! Good post.
Thank you, Peaceman. It's great to see you back. You were missed here.
You're very kind, Siouxrose. I've been spending less time on the computer and more time "on the streets" interacting with people.
The causal factors i.e. supply issues etc, are all within the control of Big Oil as presently constituted. Mr. Obama seeks to broaden energy options with natural gas et al. and the response is predictable, Big Oil raises the price of gasoline. Mr. Reich knows how the game is played.
Repost:
In the President's State of the Union Speech, he told big oil he would be taking on a new partner, natural gas. Market forces are not driving the price of gasoline, political forces are. The President declared his allegiance to new energy sources and rising gas prices is Big Oil's response. Big Oil now wields a double edged sword, raise prices, get even richer at the public's expense, use the money to fund the opposition and use public anger over rising prices to defeat Mr. Obama. All's well that ends well. Make no mistake about the strategy. Can they pull it off? Politics is, "the art of the possible".
Why not just subsidize lower pump prices by taking the funding from Israel's 3 billion dollar a year foreign aid tab, since they're using it to threaten attacks anyway?
" Europe’s debt crisis appears to be easing"
Robert Reich, distilling into one little lie, the criminal heist by international hoodlums (bankers) and their subsequent attack on the people's of the world, through that same corrupt banking system's forcing so-called "austerity" measures.
That kind of deceptive short hand, is why I don't read much of Reich.
How about our oil production here in US being exported instead of using it here to lower prices? One reason is because the demand is still down, usually when demand is down price goes down?
"The closures of Hovensa and two refineries in the Northeast "would collectively cut as much as 50% of current East Coast refining capacity," the Energy Department said in a report last week. In addition, a third Northeast refinery may shut down by mid-2012, the agency said.
"Phil Weiss, senior analyst for energy for New York-based Argus Research, said the refinery closings were part of an industrywide move to reduce exposure to low-profit refinery operations. But the practical effect was to leave U.S. motorists with little or no supply cushion should any other refineries have to close because of mishaps or disasters." http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jan/31/business/la-fi-0131-gas-prices-20120131
And here's a more detailed explanation, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Peak-Oil-Crisis-Being-Compounded-by-Refinery-Closures.html
Big Oil raises prices at the pump simply because they can.There is no oversight. American consumption is down yet prices climb. It has almost nothing to do with supply and demand. They always raise prices for the summer driving season. And it is possible they are raising prices prior to the election to favor Republicans who are more compliant with Big Oil than Democrats and take in much more in campaign donations than Demos. However, both parties are Big Oil puppets and a significant number of members of Congress hold oil stocks as well as MIC stocks. It is no wonder Congress approves illegal "wars" to further the global interests of American oil corporations.
I suggest you read the two items I linked to in my reply to jujubaby. When one looks at the gasbuddy price map, http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_gastemperaturemap.aspx and sees that huge area of green in the middle, one wants to know why that is. It's rather simple: Midwest refiners get feedstock from Canada that costs $40-50/bbl LESS than WTI crude produced in Texas and the Gulf, so they can keep healthy margins and charge less for gas and diesel. That situation is also why Big Oil is AGAINST the Keystone XL Pipeline. This is a good tutorial despite its being a year-old. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7519
It's not that there is no oversight, it's a matter of gasoline being a great example of when "free markets" fail. If the price of gas goes up, what are you going to do? - go to your local Hydrogen outlet and fill up your hydrogen car? Nope.... I guess you could do without your car, but ahh - the US doesn't believe in public transportation, so, I guess you'll be on your bicycle bringing home groceries in your paniers... You see if you don't have a choice, then the that mysterious "free market" doesn't work. They have you by the short and curlies and can raise the price as high as they'd like. I'm surprised though that Reich didn't mention Peak Oil. At that point, you won't even need collusion between oil companies to raise prices - we'll simply begin to run out.
"I can hire one half of the the working-class to kill the other half."
-- Jay Gould, Gilded Age rail tycoon and real estate speculator
I wish to God people on CD would quit reading the half-truthful screeds of the diminutive neo-liberal disaster, Professor Robert Reich. He is a Bill Clintonite neo-liberal, "absolute advantage free trade" loving charlatan and dissembling backstabber of the middle-class and working-poor.
It is a million times better to read anything by Professor Michael Hudson of the University of Missouri, John Atcheson, Paul Craig Roberts, Mike Whitney or even Joseph Stiglitz than anything written or verbally uttered by neo-liberals and neo-liberal coddlers like Robert Reich, Paul Krugman and Dean Baker--all of whom curry favor with the reigning corporatist, militarist political and media establishment to improve their own careers and finances.
These people are NEO-LIBERAL WHORES out to bamboozle you with their mock compassionate smoke and mirrors. Baker used to be worth a damn but has slid down into the co-opted career climber reptile pit with Reich and Krugman over the last several years. You won't hear him publicly talk about basic legal structural reform of corporations as legal fictions to make them more accountable to the public anymore. He gave that up during Shrublette's 2nd term.
Agreed, but IMO "diminutive" is under the top.
The power elite figured out a long time ago that in order to bamboozle the sheeple thay needed a duopoly rather than a monopoly; a fake opposition party. The neo-liberal whores and the dems play that role nicely.
Metal: Good post!
I've used the Jay Gould quote many times over the years. Think American-style storm troopers against peaceful protesters in the Occupy Movement.
I tend to agree with your evaluation on the neo-liberal economists, and besides being a big fan of Professor Hudson, I'll put a plug in for Economic Professors Richard Wolff and Jack Rasmus as well.
Corporate takeover of the Nation States is almost complete. Globalists like Brzezinski describe the takeover as a giant chess game. One ploy used is to maneuver your opponent into a situation that any action they take is can be used to your advantage. The progressive environmental movement has been co-opted by the globalists to suit their own purposes, Al gore is an example. He's an environmental hypocrite of the highest order. He gives a great presentation while his stretch limo idles out front waiting to take him to his private jet and fly him back to his huge mansion. So the environmental movement says high gas prices are what we need to save the Earth. The oil companies agree yes they rejoice higher oil prices are good. Higher prices mean more profits for the energy corporations. What do you think these corporations are going to do with these swelling profits, save the environment? Yes environmentalists higher oil prices are good for the Earth and Exon and the 1% and the corporate state. Good Move!
Al Gore is a great example of someone who helped bring the issue of Global Warming to the forefront. Why the snide attacks on the fact that he's wealthy and yes, uses jets to travel? Oh! - the shame of it! When did Gore say he wants higher gas prices? He stated in 2000 when gas prices were quickly rising that he'd open the strategic reserve to limit the rise in prices and avert inflation.
I agree that we could transition to the United Corporations of America (tm) but your target is misplaced. Go after Big Business and banks.
and not the politcal puppets? Al Gore is a hypocrite and elitist. Part of the D/R dictatorship. He is part of a thoroughly corrupt political establishment.
So it's OK with you that while preaching Hydro-carbon abstinence Mr Gore luxuriates in his greenhouse gas spewing elitist global hopping lifestyle of the rich and famous? Well then sell your car and air conditioner and turn your heater down to save the Polar Bears. I'm sure Mr Gore we be happy to continue to collect the millions a year he makes saving the Earth from the rest of us.