Pepe does make two errors regarding Saudi's net exports, which for 2011 are estimated to be 7.5-8.1Mbpd versus Saudi's peak net exports of 9.1Mbpd in 2005. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8908#comment-869863 The decline rate he cites is the net decline rate in total production where new production wells's almost zero decline rates offset wells from older fields that are declining around 8%. The linked graph shows a much higher rate of net export decline. For the whole slide set, go here http://www.aspo-usa.org/conference/2011/presentations/110311%201400%20ASPO%20China%20and%20Middle%20East%20Brown.pdf

The British are complaining about the sudden and spectacular price rise which is forcing consumers to cut down on their driving, which must be terrific for their struggling economy. If this is only 1% of their supply, the Iranians have managed to leverage themselves nicely and the British government will get all the blame.

The neo-cons, as they've proudly said, are creating their own reality--and in this case they bollixed things up royally.

Thank you Pepe for pointing out once again the idiocy of our "leaders."

Pepe Escobar makes some provocative points (underreported, or completely unreported in the mainstream US media) about Iranian warships gaining greater access to the Suez Canal since Hosni Mubarek's departure, and what countries' economies are actually feeling the squeeze most from the US/EEU sanctions effort. Escobar has also written incessantly about the pipeline project across Afghanistan to Pakistan.

To me, this is the law of unintended consequences at work. The Bushies envisioned toppling Saddam, toppling the mullahs of Tehran, linking up with a western beholden post-Taliban regime in Afghanistan, and exorcising the ghosts of Vietnam once and for all. Instead, by any objective appraisal, the big winners in the Iraq War fiasco is Iran and the disenfranchised Shiites of the Middle East.

This was the exact opposite of what all those smartest-guy-in-the-room armchair hawks so boldly projected back in 2001-2002. Tell me again how militarism works in US national interests, or how it works in the best interests of those allied with Uncle Sam on such half-baked projects of military adventurism.

Bill from Saginaw

RE: "real cowards will keep going to Tehran, all day and all of the night, in their wettest of wet dreams" ~ Escobar

MY COMMENT: What a mess. Not to mention the stench. Thank G-d for Depends®!

I wonder why nobody mentions that the increase in gas prices in Europe and elsewhere have emboldened the oil cartel backed to increase exports of domestic gas production at the expense of U.S. consumers. The oil industry started reducing the numbers of refineries in the early '90s to justify higher prices for a more rare commodity (ain't capitalism grand?).

Now we are paying the higher prices because of shortfall created by exporting domestic production rather than selling it domestically.

Again, how come nobody talks about it?

And then there is the XL....,whose contents were earmarked to use domestic U.S. production facilities for offshoring all output...not selling in the U.S. which would lower our prices.

Just thinkin'

Gawd, I love it when Pepe talks dirty........lap dance indeed!

According to today's London Telegraph, insiders were well aware of what sanctions against Iran would cost.
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For Mr Taylor, the price problem is exasperated in Europe by the decline in the value of the euro versus the dollar, which has risen the cost of dollar-denominated oil sales to EU countries.

“The Iranians now want the price as high as possible as they’ve got less volumes to sell. I reckon they are probably quite close to winning based on the numbers. That was what everybody in the industry always thought would be the likely result,” said Taylor.

“The politicians are all avoiding the subject at the moment but as you know oil is extremely expensive, especially in euros,” he said.

Brent crude traded just above $121 a barrel on Tuesday, up from $107 a barrel at the start of 2012 but below a record high of $147 in 2008. In euros, oil was near a record high of €91.8 a barrel last week, compared with a record €93.46 in July 2008.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/9097359/Oil-price-hits-eight-month-high-on-Iran-Israel-war-fears.html

Thank you, Pepe Escobar, for exposing the neo-conservative sociopaths and their friends, the Israeli mafia!

It's only a matter of time now, for one of them days those armchair neo-fascist flat earthers are going to get a severe reality check.

The sanctions don't hurt Iran. The purpose of the sanctions are to manipulate the Merkan public into devoting ever more calories of their energy to their masters, Merkan elites. How else but theatrics to enslave a population?

"Tehran is enriching uranium to a paltry 3.5%; a nuclear bomb needs 95% - and that would be immediately detected by the International Atomic Energy Agency."

This certainly won't stop the U.S. armed services from inculcating the whole rigmarole; using the media to dehumanize the Iranian people to the point that murdering and raping their women and children will seem like an "honest day's work" for those willing to join ranks.

The major oil companies are getting what they want - an increase in oil prices.

I like Pepe's article and how the neocons are wiping s#*t off their faces but could it be that like every sanction that's imposed, the idea is to help the profiteers?

Notwithstanding- or maybe because of- your lap dance metaphor, the clerics in Tehran may now be enjoying a private belly laugh. In any case, it is good that you have shared some salient facts about what is really happening with the sanctions, including Iran's "poke in the eye naval presence" in the Mediterranean. You might do some digging into what may be an underlying US-Israeli-European agenda for developing the valuable offshore natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. Unfortunately, the mainstream media and officialdom will continue to do their very debased best to withhold what they surely must know about Iran, and continue to propagandize terrifying nonsense to keep alive the possibility of a military strike against that country.

RE: "Tehran is enriching uranium to a paltry 3.5%; a nuclear bomb needs 95% - and that would be immediately detected by the International Atomic Energy Agency." Extremely simplistic and essentially inaccurate. €> Meanwhile, the history of nuclear weapons has bothered me for some time. Thus, how, in the middle of WWII, when American productive capacity was stretched to the bone (nearly all consumption by citizens was strictly rationed) so we could send literally MILLIONS of men and machinery and munitions overseas, was this country able to DO the Manhattan Project, amassing thousands of tons of lead shielding under a stadium in Chicago, while creating Alamagordo as well as the UCal system? The first nuclear test in New Mexico was "proof of concept." The second was Hiroshima, a uranium bomb. The third was Nagasaki, a plutonium bomb. Today one need not be a theoretical physicist to build a bomb. Recipes are in the public domain and have been for decades. So the question is, if the U.S. during WWII could put together three bombs in months when they really didn't "know" they would work, why hasn't Iran produced even a tiny bomb in all these decades of MEDIA VILIFICATION of Iran? €> Relevant here is that today Iran probably has immediate access to any raw materials then available to the U.S. (and a comparable GDP!), and with far more sophisticated ways of mobilizing knowledge and converting it to production. To suggest that the Iranian scientists could not have created a bomb by now if they wanted to is to denigrate their culture and intellect. Iran has been at the center of the Crossroads of Civilization for millenia. We are parvenu. Juvenile, actually. We provoke. They back off (until the past few days!?). €> Today, not many elders remain to tell you how secret the Manhattan project really was. Los Alamos was run by the Stepford Wives! Iranians for the most part, are familiar with the Secular Scientism of the West. They know that Western Science "works." Empiricism has a way of overcoming stupid religions, esp. when the body is bleeding out. €> Can we just all tell our "government" to stop the Iran bashing? Occupy Hillary (and why has she tied her hair back so tightly lately in public places?). I have little doubt that Iran could have produced a bomb a long time ago. Or they could have borrowed one from Pakistan (or even from Israel---that's a Hoot!). And whatever happened to A.Q Kahn?! €> I do not mean to be glib here, but I am really, really, tired of the goddam lies purveyed by the MSM now for decades when most of the writers of this propaganda could not tell the difference between U-235 and U-238, let alone the Pacific Drift of Fukushima Isotopes to the shores of the Western U.S. What goes around comes around. I do not blame the Japanese. I blame General Electric and their global monopoly on Electron Theory. How's that for "nuts"? This country better pay attention to our Domestic Troubles. We can pay attention to both, but we aren't. Our attention is diverted on the Evening News to lies, distortions, and more lies and distortions. Does CBS Scott Pelley even have a Soul, or is he an apparition? €> High gasoline prices: blame the Iranians! And pay no attention to Pam Martens as she eviscerates the big banks. And you are too stupid to understand Credit Default Swaps! Put-Ops. Hedge. Chris Hedges! Sooner or later Put comes to Shove. But it is late and I digress. Iran is grossly under-estimated. We should be taking lessons instead of seeking Imposition. Thus Spake Zarathustra... ...-30-

Good basic analysis, however, we do error when we fault those leading the sanctions as having no political/economic awareness. Oil prices are doing exactly what they want. The desperation drives down wages, motivates continued tax cuts for the wealthy, will force higher interest rates, and continue foreclosures and government bailouts of the largest financial institutions. This is all according to plan. In addition, those who suffer most at home, will proudly display the bumper stickers supporting their foolish leaders. I'm afraid that eventually we get what we deserve -- as they say, What you sow so shall you reap. Tragically that does not bode well for America.

I don't, can't, and won't disagree w/ everything Mr. Escobar asserts, but I will say that his pollyanna attitude combined the propagation of unknown and unknowable "facts" is frightening. Frightening because both are so prevalent and counter-productive.

When he says: "Tehran is enriching uranium to a paltry 3.5%; a nuclear bomb needs 95% - and that would be immediately detected by the International Atomic Energy Agency" he is parroting a dangerous liberal party line.

Nobody except those inside the mountains at Parchin and Natanz know how much progress Iran has made. If they are claiming 3% enrichment, they are most certainly at the 20% point. The IAEA team returned from Iran yesterday after being denied access the the most important nuke sites. Hullo . . . they're not permitted to investigate for a reason.

As for the pollyannas among you, below is a link to the UK Parliament's Feb08.12 report on the predicted effects the EMF from a nuke exploded in space would produce. Please read it. The effects would be absolutely devastating.

If Iran has the capability to put satellites over the US and Europe -- and it does -- then once it has completed a nuke it has the capability to fry virtually every electronic circuit in the N. Hemisphere. One US expert has said this scenario is worse than a ground-strike.

After 1.5 years of criticizing the Bushies for the way they have handled the Middle East and terrorists, Obama got into office and pretty much continued Bush's hard-ball, unconstitutional agenda. He also almost immediately, like Bush, began going gray. Why? He saw the National Intelligence Estimate. None of us, including Mr. Escobar and me, have any inkling of how bad this situation really is.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmdfence/1552/155202.htm

Iran needs nuclear deterrance. The sooner they 'test explode' a nuclear capable device, the safer they are and lesser the chance of a combined Israel (and its poodle the U.S.) attack. At least thats definitely the line of thinking of most Iranians and i totally understand where it comes from !