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Obama Can Win Big with FDR Formula
Franklin D. Roosevelt wasn’t always “Franklin D. Roosevelt.”
As President Barack Obama delivers his State of Union Address on Tuesday and devises his reelection strategy, he should understand the implications of this statement and act on them. Whether this election will have major consequences for our future and what Obama’s place in history will be could both depend on the willingness of the president and Democrats to do so.
Obama and his advisers are likely tempted to opt for a stand-pat reelection effort because of the improving unemployment numbers. That may be enough to get him reelected. But it won’t be the sort of transformative election that could secure his place in history as a great president — which acting on that FDR statement could achieve.
To understand why, look to the seemingly schizophrenic results of two recent polls. A December Gallup Poll found that 64 percent of Americans see Big Government as the nation’s largest threat, while only 26 percent see Big Business as the greatest threat.
A month earlier, however, 75 percent of Americans surveyed in a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll said that “the current economic structure of the country is out of balance and favors a very small proportion of the rich over the rest of the country,” the “power of major banks and corporations” needs to be reduced and the rich should not receive tax breaks. Sixty percent strongly agreed with this. Only 12 percent disagreed, 6 percent strongly.
How can overwhelming majorities believe both that the power of Big Business needs to be reduced and Big Government is a greater threat than Big Business?
The answer is in another response in that November poll: 74 percent said Obama has “fallen short” of expectations in “improving oversight of Wall Street and the banks.” Only 18 percent said he lived up to expectations. By 66 percent to 29 percent, respondents said Obama hasn’t lived up to their expectations in “standing up to Big Business and special interests.”
So the reason most Americans fear Big Government more than Big Business is that the former has failed to control the latter — and instead assumed the role of enabler.
If Obama were to stand up to big business, the public’s view of government — and him — could improve rapidly.
That brings us back to the statement above about Roosevelt and how it affects the 2012 elections — since high, if declining, unemployment is probably the greatest obstacle to Obama’s reelection. No president for more than 70 years has been reelected with unemployment above 7.5 percent — as it is likely to be in November.
If we go a little further back, however, unemployment was at 16.9 percent in 1936. FDR was reelected that year with 60.8 percent of the popular vote, carrying all but two states and winning the Electoral College vote 523 to 8.
But the Roosevelt who won that landslide — despite an unemployment rate nearly twice what it is now — was not the FDR of 1932, or even 1933. He was the man we now think of as “Franklin D. Roosevelt” — a role he took on in 1935 and 1936.
Prior to his 1932 election, Roosevelt was famously described by Walter Lippmann as “an excessively cautious politician” who was “no crusader,” “no enemy of entrenched privilege.” That characterization seems to fit President Obama so far — even if it did not fit 2007-08 Candidate Obama.
At the start of his presidency, FDR also sought consensus — and got a great deal of it. In his inaugural address, he denounced the “money changers,” but he was simultaneously consulting with leading financiers about how to solve the banking crisis. Roosevelt didn’t turn on the banks, even though there was overwhelming public opposition to them.
“The president drove the money changers out of the Capitol on March 4,” Rep. William Lemke of North Dakota complained, “and they were all back on the 9th.”
There were important accomplishments during the first two years of the Roosevelt administration — as there were in the first two years of the Obama administration. But by 1935, many Americans began thinking that the New Deal was not doing enough to restore balance in the economy by curbing the power of the rich, the big banks and corporations.
It was progressive agitation, union activities and popular movements (collectively identified as “Thunder on the Left”) in 1934 and 1935 — combined with FDR’s belated realization that Big Business wasn’t going to play ball with him — that ultimately led Roosevelt to shift to more progressive policies and proposals.
The American Liberty League, formed by business and conservative opponents of the New Deal, was established in 1934 “to combat radicalism, preserve property rights [and] uphold and preserve the Constitution.” These backers were the Koch brothers of that era, trying to convince Americans that the president was a socialist.
Always a savvy pragmatist, FDR finally realized it was impossible to compromise with those who refuse to compromise. He also saw that he needed to move left to catch up with his “followers,” who were demanding more vigorous action on behalf of the vast majority of Americans struggling in the Great Depression.
Roosevelt was “leading from behind.” He abandoned consensus and compromise, and instead cast his lot with the poor, unions and minorities, and against the corporate and financial interests — becoming the “Franklin D. Roosevelt” we know today.
FDR launched his 1936 reelection campaign by warning against a dictatorship by the over-privileged and declaring that private enterprise had become “too private. It became privileged enterprise, not free enterprise.”
“These economic royalists complain that we seek to overthrow the institutions of America,” he said, expressing sentiments that could resonate now. “What they really complain of is that we seek to take away their power.”
Running against economic royalists, Roosevelt won reelection in one of the largest landslides in U.S. history. The Democrats, moreover, won 77 percent of the House seats and increased their hold on the Senate to 79 percent.
As 2012 begins, such a resounding victory for Obama and the Democrats looks impossible. Whether it is depends on which past reelection campaign recipe Obama decides to follow.
Emulating Harry S. Truman’s 1948 run against the “Do Nothing” Republican Congress is a formula that is likely to succeed. But, by itself, it is unlikely to produce a major, realigning victory.
But if Obama instead picks up FDR’s 1936 cookbook, he could find that the ingredients are available for a Democratic landslide. The November poll shows that, by 76 percent to 12 percent, Americans oppose the economic policies championed by the Republicans and want the economic policies that progressives advocate: “We are the 76 percent who realize that we are part of the 99 percent.”
For their part, Republicans seem to be declaring something like: “We are the 12 percent that sides with the 1 percent.”
Republicans are falling all over one another in a mad — literally mad — rush to align themselves with the 12 percent who stand with the rich, banks and corporations. Yet two-thirds to three-quarters of Americans are disappointed that Obama hasn’t done enough to oppose those same interests.
Can Obama catch up to his “followers” — as FDR did in 1936?
To assure that Obama reprises FDR’s successful 1936 strategy, progressives must pressure the president and his party to run a campaign pledging to implement policies in line with what an overwhelming majority of Americans say they want.
There is a famous story of a union leader who met with FDR to outline the arguments for a progressive program. “I agree with everything you said,” Roosevelt responded. “Now go out and make me do it.”
Conservatives used to say: “Let Reagan be Reagan.” The progressive slogan today should be: “MAKE Obama Be ‘Obama’” — the man we imagined him to be when we elected him.
That’s what three-quarters of the American people want. If Obama and Democrats listen, they might win a historic victory this year.
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107 Comments so far
Show AllThis is an article from the Onion, right?
Saw the headline, skipped the article.
Ditto.
Same here. Always pass on any "waste of time" article extoling Obama to do anything.
I would, however, read something titled "Obama should resign or be impeached." That would catch my interest.
Or "So and So calls Obama a Fraud and will challenge Obama in 2012" Now that would really spark some interest.
The professor's article goes beyond admonishing Obama to change, it presents a revisionist history of the 1930s to suit the author's deluded conclusion that Obama can become a populist during the final year of his first term after he spent three years unloading the US treasury into the hands of the 1%.
FDR DID NOT wait until the latter part of his first term to become a populist. Most of the components of his New Deal were in the works early in the first term and fully executed during his first term.
I hope the professor's students aren't taking on any debt to be so seriously mislead.
You are right, ray. This is based on "hope" and "yes we can". It is astonishing to me that the writer (a historian?) ignores not only the *details* of FDR's first term but those of Obama's first term.
Yes, wishful thinking is getting into Onion territory.
Unlike the first few posters, I read the article and it qualifies as the literary equivalent of stepping back in time via a time machine, not to the l930's, but to 2007-2008. All the same lazy lines about:
1. Comparing Obama to FDR
2. Holding his feet to the fire
3. Yes we (still) can
4. That it's oh, so important to get those Dems into powerful positions
Given the levels of Obama's abject betrayal, this kind of pabulum comes off as OBSCENE! It's not only an insult to thinking persons, it reveals a remarkable blindness, the type that's best attributable to sports. Seen in how the home boys so love their own team, that they will forgive it for its mistakes and fumbles on the field.
In the case of this president, it's not blunders or fumbling the ball. The sell-outs have been nothing short of EVIL.
It is EVIL to give presidential administrations that violate the Geneva Conventions by launching an aggressive war on FIXED evidence, a pass.
It is EVIL to hold people in prison indefinitely, especially when they are known to be innocent.
It is EVIL to set up the pretense for gutting Social Security, and EVIL to allow the most self-serving capitalists to decimate the public school system.
It is EVIL to not invest VIGOROUSLY in Green Technology.
And it is EVIL to have bailed out the bankers, printed $ to the tune of trillions, and to now endorse legislation that leaves the big banks off the hook for their crooked mortgage scams.
Oh, and it's EVIL to use drones on civilians, to expand existing wars, and fund new nuclear weapons.
And how about that darling NDAA?????
Or the prosecution of courageous whistle-blowers?
Comparing Obama to FDR is like comparing Mickey Mouse to Mussolini.
Well said!
Yes, Siouxrose. It is almost getting into the "sick" category to continue with the FDR/Obama charade, let alone the more general "Obama as populist".
Indeed, Ray. The Glass Steagall Act was passed in June, 1933. This "professor" has really missed the boat in his assertions, both about the latency of FDR's first term AND especially the ridiculous belief that Obama is capable of becoming more like FDR in his second term. I voted for Obummer in 2008 because I was hoping that he would exhibit at least some of the qualities of FDR and that he would act on the specifics of his campaign speeches. We all know the result of our votes for this shameless warmongering, Wall Street whore. We got Bush 2.0. Among other outrages, Barry now says that Larry Summers should be the next World Bank president! The looting continues. I am voting for Rocky Anderson in November.
Ditto, i.e., saw the headline, skipped the article, which was obviously based on an absurd premise.
same here !!
CD keep posting this kind of posts, along with Robert Reich and likes.
The professor ignores the fact that although Obama has compared himself to Ronny Raygun on many occassions since he started his 2008 campaign four years ago, Obama has never compared himself to FDR and has zealously worked to dismantle what is left of the New Deal.
Where does CD find all these stupid articles and why do they reprint them? "They call it the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe this shit." George Carlin.
Great quote! Very apropos.
What a crock!
This is absolutely right on the mark.
Folks on the right will say that Fascism is defined by a cult of personality around a leader. Well, if multiple folks have similar fascist tendencies, then no single person is required for things to get out of hand and for the US to follow the lead of Nazi Germany & Italy.
Corporate money in politics = Fascism
Tucson Don: Astute observation.
Looking forward to articles about when the people start winning.
Stay indoors, folks. Democrats are roaming the streets! They crave your flesh and brains and campiagn contributions and bumper sticker space on your Subaru. Only by destroying the head will the body stop moving; they ceased to have human feelings and coherent thoughts when the sickness began, so by all means swing away. And don't let them bite you; the contagion spreads quickly and leads to an undead hunger.
I hear their screams in the night... "Obaaaaaaaaaaaaammmmaaaaaa! Oooooooooooobaaaaaaaaammmmaaaaaa!"
I just might have to start calling him Ozombie...
Great metaphor!
Kind of insulting to Zombies though.
"Obama Can Win Big with FDR Formula"
______________________
What Z-Man and everyone else (so far) said.
When I saw this headline I cracked up-- if smiling rather than outright chuckling, giggling, or laughing can be called "cracking up".
It's like the article slipped in through a four-year time displacement, or a simpler, shallower, and more innocent parallel universe.
It IS from Politico.com, the "USA Today" of the Beltway, after all. That's pretty close to "The Onion".
It won't be the last of its kind this year here, alas! But at least it tickles rather than itches.
O.S. My "time machine" flash came to me before having read down the threads. I see that something similar hit you, too.
It doesn't really even matter much for Obama personally if he wins reelection or not. He's guaranteed a golden parachute of tens of millions or more in speaking or consulting fees from the rich as thanks for his service, and at least one more book deal. Look at the Clintons' finances after the White House, or even Gerald Ford's.
I imagine a lot of the mid-level hangers-on in the adminsitration have more at stake; some of them need another year or four to really build up that golden parachute equity. The most vicious lies in favor of Obama are likely to be spewed by people looking for plum second term appointments.
He could but he can't; he won't get his corporate bribes. Corruption rules; the rest of us are merely krill.
"Obama Can Win Big with FDR Formula"
Just shoot me.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Obama is NOT Roosevelt. No chance he is GOING to be Roosevelt.
And the USA today is NOT what it was in 1936. On one hand, the ruling class is much more prepared with high-tech tools, ideological commitment, and trained enforcers to brutally repress any mass movement that threatens their power. On another hand, the ruling class is much more prepared with a compliant president, and the willingness to enforce such compliance BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY if a president gets any ideas.
The mass movement may emerge this spring. If so, it is important to exploit any weaknesses or divisions within or between the ruling class and their trained enforcers. We should be spending more time preparing to carry a mass movement through brutal repression, than dreaming about Super President saving us from his puppet-masters.
Most people fail to realize that the greatest predictor of Obama's future actions are Obama's prior actions not FDR's prior actions.
Webwalk
"We should be spending more time preparing to carry a mass movement through brutal repression, than dreaming about Super President saving us from his puppet-masters." Sounds good, you first. The heart of Democracy rests in politics not war.
TA,
i think your reply is confused. i assume you are reacting out of fear: you do not want to "prepare to carry a mass movement through brutal repression" so you define that as outside "the heart of Democracy," and you assert that what i am talking about is "war" not "politics."
But i am talking about democracy, and i am talking about politics. i am speaking in support of Occupy Wall Street and the movement that hopefully will arise in the spring to mobilize people in the United States to demand an end to plutocracy and corporatism and the implementation of actual democracy.
And if such a movement does arise, i am looking realistically at the array of forces that the plutocrats have prepared to smash any such movement. Maybe you believe that because there is the blunt threat of smashing, that we should not organize to demand an end to the illegitimate corporatist plutocratic "government." That OWS will be to blame for the "war" that the plutocrats unleash to protect their privilege and power. That if brutal repression is unleashed that we should not strategize how to carry our movement through it. That we should all line up meekly in your "heart of Democracy" to vote for Barack Obama, who has arguably accomplished more for the plutocratic corporatists than any president in history. That we should denounce agitators and organizers who work outside of the two establishment political parties because they are engaging in "war" not in "politics." But that IS politics! You pretend that organizing a movement outside the acceptable establishment channels is "war" but it is the plutocratic corporatist establishment that is waging war my friend.
Also, my call to prepare to try to carry our mass movement through a period of brutal repression unleashed against it did not specify any tactics. You may immediately jump to assumptions about what i must be talking about, but again i believe you are reacting more to your own fears rather than the content of what i actually said.
If your definition of "politics" means "enter the booth and pull the lever" then perhaps you see no legitimacy for organizing a mass movement to demand actual democracy. Yours appears to be a very pinched and unimaginative definition of "politics," and of "democracy," as defined by those who manufacture consent.
But perhaps you simply misread what i said?
Must be election season. Common Dreams is going to load us up with Obama apologists and they're even reviving the themes from the first campaign. Yeah Obama could win with FDR policies but he ain't FDR, he hasn't even got the guts of Jimmy Carter. He is Wall St's guy with slick oratory and a Clio winning ad/election campaign. Vote for Elmo he is an AUTHENTIC PUPPET.
Oh, this is not satire?
I agree with most comments here. I could not read the rest of the article without retching. This guy is a history professor? He must be trying to bootlick his way to tenure.
I hope he is not so superficial and out of touch when he gives a lecture to students.
Yes, very much. The take over of higher education by controllers is going on full speed right under our noses and by both party. See who Obama's number #1 donor is.....and it ain't Golden Sachs.
Obama had his chance to serve the people that voted him in and he used their gift to perpetuate the OnePercent's abuse and financial terrorism and squash the voices of those "that brung him".
Obama works for the Elite. He is not playing three dimensional chess, he is not caving to everything the elite want because he doesn't have alternatives, he is not protecting criminals because it is the best thing to do. he is not handing the toddler class screaming "capitalism" money that we need for the people of this country because it's the best thing to do.
For God sake, step away from the pill bottle and the Idiot box.
He's playing monopoly with your money and mine.
"Obama Can Win Big with FDR Formula"
But why on earth would anyone want that serial violater of the Constitution, servant of Wall St and trigger-happy Gangsta-in-Chief to win re-election as the GoldmanSachs President of the USA through the fraudulent pretense that he is something other than the heinous criminal that he is?
No worries Dr. McElvaine, I'm voting for Obamney!
This article is full of shit frankly........
FDR prior to being president was governor of NY where he tried many of the new deal policies on a state level during the first few years of the depression....
FDR had Francis Perkins and Harry Hopkins working for him during is NY governorship years..... Those 2 were 2 of the most famous progressives in the country at the time.....
Name 2 progressives Obama has had with him for YEARS.....
A good book -"Harry Hopkins" by Henry hitch Adams.
Perhaps the is author should try reading it.
He had one more or less progressive man working in the early days named Van Jones and, at the slightest suggestion of Jones being skeptical about the 9/11 Commission Report, he was bounced. Since then, the 1% has been very happy with the makeup of his administration.
Actually Perkins and Hopkins worked For Years for FDr prior to the white house.....
Van jones didn't even make it 6 months with Obama
No comparison.........
mtdon -
Thanks for mentioning Harry Hopkins and Francis Perkins. Felix Frankfurter's name could be added to that list of FDR's inner circle of "advisors" as New York Governor and in his first term in the White House.
The Republican press in the 30's openly accused Roosevelt of being a fellow traveler with the Reds, pointing to the New Deal social planners as evidence of a socialist conspiracy inside the federal bureaucracy. What FDR perfected in my opinion was the skill set of broadening and making more inclusive the range of policy options on the table for consideration, and then confronting the Congress, big business, and the Republican opposition with the very credible threat that if they didn't compromise with him today, tomorrow's New Deal proposals might be even more unsettling.
The author of this piece is in the history department. He's not a political science professor. Barack Obama's track record on bringing genuinely progressive voices into Cabinet level positions or as major federal Department heads is abysmal, Van Jones being a casualty case in point.
Obama can't possibly behave like Franklin Roosevelt because Congress, big business, the military, the Repugs, and the blue dog Dems know there's no alternative agenda there for them to worry about that Obama would actually fight for.
Bill from Saginaw
Readers might want to check out the following link about FDRs "First 100 Days". Does it resemble Obama's first term?
http://xroads.virginia.edu/~ma02/volpe/newdeal/timeline_text.html
Your list is missing March 22, 1933 - FDR ended prohibition -
Obama promised to allow medical marijuana and can't even keep that promise.....
FDR made the average person believe he was On Their Side over the interests of the banksters and big business.....
Very few Americans think that Obama is on our side over those very same interests.....
Bad comparison by the articles author...... And a professor at that -
I'm looking for the third party candidate.
I can no longer hold my nose and vote for Obama. He's too far to the right.
Rocky Anderson is the best man out there IMO and if he's for real. Ron Paul could possibly win but is still very much wearing blinders where most people are concerned. At least, he is not a crook and would fight the One Percent and stop handing them money and control. He has the best chance but the elections are rigged. I don't believe he would be "announced" as winner if he had 95% of the vote. Check this out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVS5TIppad8&feature=g-hist&context=G286708eAHTx8MowAZAA
I agree. In an era in which is is quite justifiable to be cynical about politicians I believe that Rocky Anderson is the real deal.
Government has not assumed the role of enabler of big business in the true sense. Big business runs what was our government. "Our government" and its resources are now in the control of big business. It has been captured .. co-opted. This is not the same thing,
We have no government of and for the people anymore. We have the interests of Wall street being run from the buildings, chairs, resources, and positions of what WAS the government. It no longer functions as a government of the people. It functions as control of the people for the benefit of big business by big business.
Wake Up.
The most recent poll has Romney and Gingrich behind Obama by only 2 points 50 to 48.
Those aren't numbers to get overly giddy over - but there the dems are doing Exactly that as if 2010 didn't happen.....
Brag about the unemployment numbers dropping but Ignore the main reason for the drop in the unemployment is people dropping off the rolls - not a vast improvement in actual employment.
Exactly! But the the elite continue to use false happy numbers to support their continued rape of the people. The false numbers will reinforce that "austerity measures" are needed more and more and provide confirmation that entitlements and deficits are what's wrong with the country. The propaganda is running so thick and deep any more I don't know how there will ever be balance again.