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Trichet’s Rein at the ECB: No Party for Europe
The retiring head of the European Central Bank presided over disaster: fixated on 2% inflation, he missed the housing bubble
Jean-Claude Trichet will be retiring as head of the European Central Bank at the end of October. He will step into retirement having wreaked the sort of destruction on the European economy that hostile powers could only dream about. Tens of millions of people across the eurozone countries are unemployed or underemployed because of his mismanagement of Europe's economy.
Meanwhile, the world teeters on the brink of another financial crisis because of the failure of the ECB, along with the IMF, to effectively address the sovereign debt crisis. Most incredible of all, Trichet probably thinks he has done a good job.
This last point really is central because the ECB, like much of the economics profession, continues to be controlled by a bizarre clique that believes that the most important, and possibly only, goal that a central bank should pursue is a 2% inflation target. By this measure, the ECB has done reasonably well, even as the eurozone economy has crumbled around it. After all, inflation in the eurozone economies rarely exceeded 3% and averaged well under the 2% target over the last decade.
However, the low and stable eurozone inflation rate is not going to provide much help to the 21.2% of the Spanish workforce that is unemployed, or the 14.6% of the Irish workforce, nor the millions more elsewhere in the eurozone who have lost their jobs as a result of the collapsed of the housing bubbles – which the ECB let grow unchecked.
If Trichet and his colleagues at the ECB had been awake, they would have noticed that real house prices in Spain had more than doubled between 1998 and 2006. The same was true in Ireland. There was no remotely comparable increase in rents, strongly indicating that this boom was not being driven by the fundamentals of the housing market.
And in both countries, the massive run-up in house prices was having a predictable effect on the economy. Both countries experienced huge building booms and surging consumption, as homeowners spent according to their bubble-generated housing wealth. In both cases, this led to extraordinary balance of trade deficits, which were clearly unsustainable for advanced economies.
How could Trichet and his colleagues have failed to have noticed these housing bubble and the economic distortions that they were creating? Or, insofar as they did notice them, did they have a theory by which economies can seamlessly replace the 10 percentage points of GDP-worth of demand (or thereabouts) that was being generated by the housing bubbles in these countries?
It didn't help that much of the rest of the eurozone also had bubbles in their housing markets (Germany was the big exception), although they were not creating quite as large distortions as in Spain and Ireland. Nor did it help matters that important non-eurozone countries, like the United States and the United Kingdom, also had bubbles in their housing market and that the whole process was being driven by over-leveraged banks.
It is very difficult to see how a central banker in the eurozone could have looked at the economic situation in 2004, 2005 or 2006 and not be concerned about the impending disaster that eventually overtook these economies. The warning signs were all over the place, but rather than taking the regulatory and monetary actions necessary to deflate these bubbles – including giving clear and persistent warnings – Trichet and his colleagues focused on their 2% inflation target.
Remarkably, even after the collapse of the bubbles, with the eurozone economies smouldering in the wreckage, the ECB continues to be obsessed with its 2% inflation target. While the Federal Reserve board lowered its overnight money rate to zero and has introduced several rounds of quantitative easing to try to reduce longer-term rates, the ECB never lowered its short-term rate below 1.0%. It actually raised it to 1.5% last spring in order to "stem inflationary risks".
More recently, along with its troika partners, the European Commission and the IMF, the ECB has had the whole eurozone financial system, and indeed, the world financial system, teetering on the brink of disaster as it tries to squeeze additional concessions out of Greece and other debt-burdened economies. While the betting is that a resolution to the debt crisis will be reached before the whole system explodes, the ECB and its partners are imposing enormous risks on everyone else for concessions that are of questionable value, at best.
It would be tragic if Trichet is allowed to go into retirement thinking that he has done a good job. In terms of public service failures, Trichet's performance ranks a notch or two below Michael Brown watching New Orleans drown when he was head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema).
Humiliating Trichet is not just a question of justice or morality, although is painful to see someone who has caused so much harm escape with impunity. More importantly, it is an issue of incentives. The people given responsibility for economic policy should be held accountable for their performance. If Trichet is toasted into retirement, we have no reason to expect any better results from his successor. That would be a real disaster.
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5 Comments so far
Show AllThee guys are paid Very well to Not notice the real estate bubbles.
Let's ad Greenspan in with this jackal.
The largest theft in the History of mankind continues - even with all the unrest the Theft continues - proving these predators - or the vampire squid as Taibbi calls them - Will Not Change until we force them to at the point of a knife.
They are paid to represent the interests of bankers and wealthy elites. They are trained to keep their eye on the ball -- not to worry about the plebians running around like little ants far, far below.
It's odd that Baker mentioned Mike Brown instead of Alan Greenspan-- the Amerikan incarnation of Trichet par excellence.
Mike Brown was just a hapless rich clown stuck in the path of a hurricane. He was hardly a 'visionary' or the architect of Bush/Cheney ideological policies. If not for his bad luck with Katrina, he would be unknown outside his circle of rich cronies.
Greenspan, on the other hand, has done everything possible in his long 'illustrious' career to inflict his plutocratic ideology -- conceived and nurtured in the wombs of Ayn Rand & Milton Friedman -- on the entire planet.
While the betting is that a resolution to the debt crisis will be reached before the whole system explodes...
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There will be no resolution for the 99%.
Only the the bond, derivative and swap holder's concerns are being negotiated.
In a move of grand stupidity the EFSF will be leveraged as Tiny Tim Geithner is demanding. Another "fix" of capital will be injected into the veins of the insolvent casinos.
The only real pain will come from the people who are the true source of wealth.
The people will be squeezed unmercifully until the little they possess is gone. Then the bankers will come and take away their crumbs.
The only solution is prosecution of the casino ceos for fraud, debt forgiveness and returning the stolen wealth to the people.
I'd be willing to bet a million federal reserve notes leveraged 50 to 1 that Trichet is not discussing these options.
the situation in greece, largely a result of goldman sachs' business as usual greed, and, i should add, the evben worse greed of the european banks...; (from znet):
...The official rate of unemployment, already announced for this month at 16.5% according to the OAED (the official government employment bureau). But everyone knows that the real unemployment level is already around 25%. Up to 60% of unemployed young workers refuse to register as they see no point in doing so! This picture does not take into consideration the ‘underemployment’ levels which are at similar figures to unemployment figures. Poverty figures and drug addiction and suicide rates have all risen sharply. Many people suffer from poor health and illnesses because they cannot afford to pay for medical costs and because of deep cuts to the public health services – 50% of hospital beds face the Troikan axe! Children are going to school complaining to teachers they are hungry. The teachers’ union reported cases of children fainting in the class rooms due to malnutrition....
Considering Jean-Claude Trichet was knee-deep in the 2003 Credit Lyonnais scandal, and managed to skate thanks to the murky goings-on with the French Treasury, it is no surprise that his reign at the European Central Bank has been such an unmitigated disaster. Trichet is part of the French political class that goes to the same elite university, Sciences Po, that most of them go to regardless of party, and whom are a clubby bunch of corrupt & incompetent douche bags.