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America Faces a Jobs Depression
Keynes was right: only government can get us out of this jobs slump. And only taxing wealth can restore US prosperity
The Reverend Al Sharpton and various labor unions announced Wednesday a March for Jobs. But I'm afraid we'll need more than marches to get jobs back.
John Maynard Keynes: the government needs to 'prime the pump' to pull the economy out of recession. (Photograph: Tim Gidal/Getty Images)
Since the start of the Great Recession at the end of 2007, the potential labor force of the United States – that is, working-age people who want jobs – has grown by over 7 million. But since then, the number of Americans who actually have jobs has shrunk by more than 300,000.
In other words, we're in a deep hole – and the hole is deepening. In August, the United States created no jobs at all. Zero.
America's ongoing jobs depression – which is what it deserves to be called – is the worst economic calamity to hit this nation since the Great Depression. It's also terrible news for President Obama, whose chances for re-election now depend almost entirely on the Republican party putting up someone so vacuous and extremist that the nation rallies to Obama regardless.
The problem is on the demand side. Consumers (whose spending is 70% of the economy) can't boost the American economy on their own. They're still too burdened by debt, especially on homes that are worth less than their mortgages. In addition, their jobs are disappearing, their pay is dropping, their medical bills are soaring.
Businesses, for their part, won't hire without more sales. So we're in a vicious cycle. The question is what to do about it.
When consumers and businesses can't boost the economy on their own, the responsibility must fall to the purchaser of last resort. As John Maynard Keynes informed us 75 years ago, that purchaser is the government.
Government can hire people directly to maintain the nation's parks and playgrounds and to help in schools and hospitals. It can funnel money to help cash-starved states and local government so they don't have to continue to slash payrolls and public services. And it can hire indirectly – contracting with companies to build schools, revamp public transportation and rebuild the nation's crumbling highways, bridges and ports.
Not only does this create jobs but also puts money in the hands of all the people who get the jobs, so they can turn around and buy the goods and services they need – generating more jobs. Not exactly rocket science.
But congressional Republicans are firmly opposed. Why don't Republicans get it? Either they're knaves – they want the economy to stay awful through next election day so Obama gets the boot. Or they're fools – they've bought the lie that reducing the deficit now creates more jobs.
Republicans claim businesses aren't hiring because they're uncertain about regulatory costs, or their taxes are too high, or they can't find the skilled workers they need. But if these were the reasons businesses weren't hiring – and consumer demand were growing – we'd expect companies to make more use of their current employees. The average number of hours worked per week by the typical employee would be increasing.
In fact, the length of the average workweek has been dropping. In August, it declined for the third month in a row, to 34.2 hours. That's back to where it was at the start of the year – barely longer than what it was at its shortest point two years ago (33.7 hours in June 2009).
Republicans say America can't afford to spend more. In truth, we'll be in worse shape if we don't. If the economy remains dead in the water, the ratio of public debt to the total economy balloons.
Besides, the United States can now borrow money from the rest of the world at fire-sale rates. Interest on the ten-year Treasury bill is now just a notch above 1%. That's an almost unprecedented deal. With so many Americans unemployed and so much of our infrastructure in disrepair, this is the ideal time to get on with the work of rebuilding the nation.
But it won't be enough for government to become the buyer of last resort – in Keynes's words, to prime the pump. If the economy is to continue to grow and create jobs after the government has stopped the priming, there must be enough water in the well. Yet, now and in the foreseeable future, America's vast middle class doesn't have the purchasing power to keep the mechanism going.
For more than 30 years, the median wage in America has barely increased, adjusted for inflation – even though the economy is twice as large as it was three decades ago. Almost all the gains have gone to the top – especially the top 1%, who now receive over 20% of total income (it was just 10% in 1980).
As long as America's vast middle class could continue to borrow on the rising value of their homes, they continued to spend – thereby keeping the economy going. But going deeper into debt is not a sustainable strategy. Now, after the bubble burst, America's middle class doesn't have enough money to maintain the economy at or near full employment.
Any long-term strategy for rescuing the American economy must therefore seek to reverse the widening gap in income and wealth. One place to start is tax reform. The earned income tax credit – a wage subsidy for lower-income workers – should be enlarged and expanded. Taxes on the middle class should be reduced – including social security payroll taxes (80% of Americans pay more in payroll taxes than they do in income taxes).
Taxes on the wealthy, on the other hand, should be increased. The president has proposed closing some tax loopholes that allow the super-rich to reduce their tax liability, and to end the tax cut on the rich put in place by George W Bush in 2001 (thereby increasing the top marginal tax rate to what it was under Bill Clinton – 39%).
But the nation should go much further, particularly in light of the large budget deficit projected several years from now. We need more tax brackets at the top, with higher marginal rates. The capital-gains tax (now at 15%) should be raised to match the income tax rate. And a wealth surtax of 2% should be applied to all wealth in excess of $7m.
Needless to say, Republicans won't go along with anything like this. They balk even at the president's modest plan. It would be better for President Obama to assume that he will get no Republican support this year and next, and build his 2012 election campaign around a bold plan to revive jobs and the American middle class.
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28 Comments so far
Show AllWe could also kill all of those "free trade agreements" Reich keeps supporting.
Reich asks "why don't Republicans understand the need for higher taxation" ?
Reich should ask WHY OBAMA AND CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS EXTENDED THE BUSH TAX CUTS when they were in control in 2010 ?
That too. Surely Reich isn't so foolish as to be unable to recognize the complicity of his party, and of the man he sees in the mirror each morning. But if he isn't that foolish, then he must be evil.
Hmmmmmm.
Reich isn't really foolish so he can hardly avoid seeing the complicity of Obama in particular and the Democratic Party in general with this economic disaster (which is a bonanza for billionaires, of course.)
I don't think he's evil. He seems sincere in his wish to improve the quality of life for Amerikans.
Rather it seems to be self-delusion -- imagining that the Democratic Party & Obama will suddenly start heeding his advice.
Apparently, he cannot think outside the Democratic Party box; he cannot accept that they are no longer the party of FDR.
In reality, Obama has far more in common with Ronnie Raygun -- and Herbert Hoover & Calvin Coolidge for that matter -- than FDR. Reich cannot bring himself to acknowledge that horrific truth so he keeps on muttering about Keynes and FDR.
The U.S. does have an immense Keynesian economic component -- it is called the military-industrial empire, Homeland Security, etc. Of course, that eventually functions like a cancer -- sucking more and more life out of the society.
The U.S. is already on a disastrous course -- and yet to face the double hammer blows from 'peak oil' and catastrophic climate change looming on the horizon.
Agreed. Without a change in trade policy most of the government stimulus will leak away to other countries, such as China. If middle class jobs are offshored what replaces them to maintain spending?
Tax reform? Earned income credit is fine, but why not put a tax on equity transations and hedge fund transactions? Not that I believe in reforming this mess--it appears well beyond that and one senses the utter futility of these discussions!
And why reduce the payroll tax? Won't that just put Social Security in further jeopardy??
THAT'S THE IDEA.
"Faces" seems to imply that such a recession is coming. I think we're in one and that there never was a "recovery."
But if we believed in the utter absolute unshakeable futility of these discussions, we wouldn't bother to post. I'll stack my hopelessness up against anybody's, but I still think there might be a way to get some sort of leverage to force the Powers That Be to allow some changes before the entire global economy collapses. I urge people to keep communicating with each other and keep thinking and keep our eyes pealed for chances for change or the system will peal them for us.
If disgruntled Americans could get on board at the same time, in historically significant numbers, we would have substantial pressure to use against those who wish to crush us. But we are kept divided, misinformed, frightened, and distracted, while the powers that be are focused and moving along with the wind in their sails.
Start by taking your $ out of banks. 2) walk and bicycle when you can 3) stop purchasing crap that you don't need 4) shop locally when you have to shop 5) speak out and protest 6) join local efforts to bypass the system that wants to turn you into a servant.
Absolutely! The power of the purse and our own personal actions in our own personal spheres (would be nice if we could stop bickering so much between ourselves to make some big numbers) are what will change things with the least amount of personal pain and destruction.
The big corps and elite care only about the bottom line. If we affect their bottom line it will be noticed far more than who we vote for. Continuing to buy from big corps (oh they are environmentally green now so it's ok) and banking with big banks (I have to because of fill in the blank) instead of shopping only local and banking/trading only local, is part of the problem. Things do not change by resorting to the "nobody else is going to do it so it won't matter" defense or "things are so bad and they (fill in the blank) are so huge we can't win" defense. As we used to say in the late 60's and early 70's and has always been the only real power we have - "BE THE CHANGE"!
"If disgruntled Americans could get on board at the same time, in historically significant numbers, we would have substantial pressure to use against those who wish to crush us."
Hmmm...you mean just like they did in Egypt? Greece? Spain? UK? Yemen? Syria? That did a lot for them, didn't it. Oh, but never mind. I forget, "WE" are not them. "WE" are exceptional, therefore, it will make a difference if "WE" do it.
The Wealthy Elite have arranged, by dint of their egregious riches, to have ALL the liquidity of the means of exchange flow to the top 2% of the world's population.
As a result, as Reich notes, there isn't enough wealth in hands of the bottom 98% of the world's population to sustain the system.
The Wealthy Elite are NOT stupid. They are NOT unaware that they are killing the goose that lays the golden eggs. It isn't as if they don't know what they are doing.
They KNOW that the middle class IS the goose that lays the golden eggs. And they can see that the system isn't functioning the way it should. And for that reason, it has to crystal clear to even the most dim-witted, pro-system advocate that what the Wealthy Elite actually intend to do is kill the damned goose.
That's why there is this great, world-wide push for austerity. They are starving the masses into extinction in order to save the world from over-population.
It is already too late to stop the process.
At this point in time, there are only a couple of things that are still not absolutely certain. They are:
1. The result of actions taken during the final death throes of about five billion people.
2. The actions of the earth's immune system to the plague of having too many people raping and pillaging the planet.
Five billion desperate and hungry people are NOT going to go to their deaths in an orderly and peaceful manner.
And the earth isn't going to be taking any pity, or showing any mercy on the contagion that has invaded the planet.
Either way, the target for both the raging, marauding masses, and the "natural" forces in the arsenal of the earth's immune system will be those who are causing this catastrophe, the Wealthy Elite.
It isn't going to be pretty, and civilization is well past the tipping point.
MEL
The facts don't square with your hypothesis, MEL !
Rather than "starving the masses into extinction " the elite are turning the working classes of the world into a serf class. The elite don't care about saving the planet as they continue "raping and pillaging the planet" viewing the entire universe (including the serfs) as a resource to be exploited.
Unless the elite feel threatened by you, MEL, they don't want to kill you, they want to enslave you.
Reply to Paranoid Pessimist:
Absolutely, yes! Keep communicating! Commondreams.org is surely a good
forum. Be pessimistic if you must; the odds are in favor of pessimism.
But know that history does not stand still. Whatever/whoever does not advance
is doomed to fall behind. The extreme accumulation of wealth by a very few
American individuals and corporations is fundamentally, in the long term,
un-sustainable. (Maybe it is now only temporarily sustained with corruption.)
See my post today in response to the commondreams.org article, "Occupy
Together ..." Let us -- we the people -- advance, and let the accumulators of
wealth apart from productivity be those to fall behind.
Yeah, keep doing the same thing over and over Robert. In Rob's World the only thing getting cleaned in his and The Feds's continuing Bubble Baths are the consumers and workers. Meanwhile, the filthy rich stand by – licking their chops.
Great going, Professor.
No Jobs is a deliberate ploy of this government of the Financial Aristocracy to turn America into a low cost manufacturing center to compete with Mexico and China. Slave wages and benefits is what they demand. That's what they are getting too.
Once again Mr Reich shows he stands tall in the field of economics!
Facts on the ground suggest RR still doesn't get it.
When 'New Deal Capitalism' began, the vast majority of We The Peasants had nothing. The goal was 'a chicken in every pot, a car in every driveway,' and the pursuit of 'the easy life,' where robots and 'others' did the hard labor so we wouldn't have to.
Well, today, the majority is obese - both physically and materialistically, and we have robots and 'others' doing most of the hard labor.
In other words - New Deal Capitalism succeeded. The problem, however, is that it wasn't supposed to. We The Peasants were supposed to always want more more more - nobody ever planned for the day when we had enough.
No tricks and band-aids can save an economic system based on perpetual over-consumption when the majority is so fat it simply can't consume anymore.
We need a new system. Fast.
Ugh, now I've got heartburn.
The goals of the New Deal had nothing whatsoever to do with the pursuit of an easy life where "robots" and others did the hard labor so "we" wouldn't have to. 20th century America always had the hardest working working-class of any Western industrialized nation and many Asian nations--with fewer vacation days, unpaid maternity leave and fewer workers' benefits.
FDR desired that the New Deal help achieve freedom from want for the basic necessities of life. He never desired that the New Deal create a consumer culture addicted to more and more luxuries. FDR's New Deal was about putting people to work to earn their keep by their own labor, not about developing an economy where more people derived income from rentier income and "free trade" dividends generated by foreign labor than by their own labor (a situation that didn't evolve in the US until the mid-1990s).
Too many Americans are obese for several reasons: Many affluent people are obese because they lead sedentary lifestyles with incomes provided by rentier income or "free trade" stock dividends instead of their own physical labor. Too many of them rely on undocumented labor to do all their heavy lifting for them by working for them as maids, gardeners, nannies, sub-minimum wage seasonal farm workers or construction crews, etc. Many somewhat affluent to poor Americans are obese because our industrialized food manufacturing system is designed to provide the cheapest possible (A) fast food and (B) high shelf life processed food loaded with artificial chemicals, pesticides, herbicides, genetic modifications, growth hormones, corn syrup, etc., that is non-nutritious to downright poisonous instead of providing the cheapest possible nutritious, locally grown, fresh, organic fruits, vegetables, nuts and meats.
But frank1569's assessment applies neither to economic conditions between 1929 and 2008 or since. The problem with the economy now is not high employment and high demand for the basic necessities of life. It is high unemployment and record busting high long-term unemployment with flat demand even for many basic necessities. This is due to over-concentration of wealth in the hands of the wealthy (5% of the richest Americans now account for fully 40% of consumer demand--much of it for luxury items) and the fact that now 1 in 6 Americans live in poverty including 1 in 4 American children.
Americans who work for a living and still have jobs still are the most productive workers of any working-class in the industrialized world, but since their productivity has been de-linked from their wages for decades, most of the wealth they produce is shunted into the hands of the richest 2%, so they are not rewarded for their increases in productivity.
In fact, even as they have become far more productive with the advent of the computerization of the workplace starting in the late 1980s, their wages have remained relatively flat, their benefits and pensions have declined or vanished and the overall numbers of good paying jobs being created has steadily declined as more middle-class manufacturing jobs have simultaneously been offshored--as are now more and more upper-middle-class jobs that require advanced degrees.
How can we tax wealth when the wealthy make the tax laws?
Direct democracy
Reich and Krugman both keep endlessly regurgitating the same half-measures that will not lead to a true economic recovery because they will not admit the true scale of the damage caused to our economy by "absolute advantage free trade" that has created a global race to the bottom in wages, working conditions and environmental plundering.
"Free trade" didn't just offshore our middle-class manufacturing base. It offshored GDP, middle-class tax revenues and CONSUMER DEMAND along with those middle-class jobs. As long as the present "free trade" regime stays in effect it will act as an impossibly high barrier to rebuilding any kind of middle-class manufacturing jobs base inside the U.S. This is a hurdle that even FDR with his temporary jobs programs did not have to face.
While big government jobs programs are a good idea, they would have to become permanent government subsidies of the domestic jobs market unless an actual domestic manufacturing base (legacy or green manufacturing) that makes goods of real value for both domestic use and export in the real economy can be rebuilt inside the U.S.
The only way that can happen is to either re-negotiate the entire "free trade" treaty regime to include globally enforceable & enforced labor and environmental protections, or phase in a moratorium on those treaties' provisions on an industrial and agricultural sector-by-sector basis over a 17 year period (how long it took those treaties to get us into this "jobs creation" mess) commensurate with the initially government subsidized rebuilding of our domestic manufacturing jobs base.
Rich Dim apparatchiks like Reich and Krugman don't want to give up their swell "free trade" dividends any more than the fat cats and partisan patronage teat clingers of the Dim, GOP and Koch-bagger Parties. This makes them all parasites on the remnant middle-class, the working-poor and the growing unemployed under-class.
All true and nicely worded.
Although ultimately far right economics is doomed to fail without globalism, globalism caused far right economics in general and obsession with free enterprise in particular to be exposed as frauds and failures quite rapidly (historically speaking).
Of course, most of the arrogant elite Americans will indefinitely continue to refuse to admit that their system failed.
In addition to the arrogant elites are the swarms of pro-elistist self-seeking wannabes in academia and the McPress who will also refuse to admit the failure of the present system to what looks like an increasingly bitter end.
Mr. Reich,
You say that medical bills are prohibitive; I know that my sister now pays two times the insurance premiums that she did before President Obama. Do you think that robbing Americans via their insurance premiums is good for Americans? I think not.
Requiring employers to pay those two-times plus premiums for any employees that they hire also prohibits employment because I can tell you for a fact that small businesses will hire no one under those conditions. As small businesses have been the backbone of our economy, Obama has stifled employment with his requirements of employers for health care.
Politicians are all hoping for WWIII to save them and I hope that we Americans will have backbone enough to prevent that!
"Politicians are all hoping for WWIII to save them and I hope that we Americans will have backbone enough to prevent that!"
Yep. And any day now, Americans are going to show us that backbone. Any day now...
America does not face a jobs depression only. America (or more aptly Amerika) is in a deep depression which encompasses everything from jobs to morals and everything in between. Anybody that thinks that taxing the rich (or employing people for that matter) will fix this mess is sadly deluded. The country has descended too much into the abyss for cosmetic fixes.