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The New Green Revolution: How Twenty-First-Century Science Can Feed the World
Countries can and must reorient their agricultural systems toward modes of production that are not only highly productive, but also highly sustainable.
Some crises appear and disappear in global media while remaining acute in the lives of real people. Global food insecurity is this type of crisis. In January 2011 the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) warned that global food prices in December 2010 exceeded the 2008 peak during the so-called food price crisis that sparked “food riots” across Africa, Asia, and Latin America.1 The UN also warned that the price increase would not stop overnight and that we were entering “danger territory.”2 Although prices stabilized in the spring, global food prices in May 2011 remained higher than they were in June 2008. We will see more price spikes in the future, due to a growing discrepancy between supply and demand, the impacts of climate disruption on agricultural production, and the merger of the energy and food markets. The food crisis is here to stay.
Governments have pledged to reinvest massively in agriculture. After three decades of neglect, this is welcome news. However, as countries announce impressive figures on the scope of their reinvestment, we tend to forget that the most pressing issues today regarding agricultural reinvestment involve not only how much, but how.
The choice between agricultural development models has immediate and long-term consequences. Since 2008 some major reinvestment efforts have been channeled into a slightly modified version of the Green Revolution without fully considering our other great contemporary challenge of climate change. In contrast, scant attention has been paid to the most cutting-edge ecological farming methods—methods that improve food production and farmers’ incomes, while also protecting the soil, water, and climate.
Yet, with an estimated 925 million hungry people on the planet,3 we must think outside the box. Major shifts in food security policies are being discussed in most countries. Yet the best options are simply not being promoted sufficiently.
The first Green Revolution—as developed in Mexico and then in South Asia in the 1960s—succeeded in improving yields in the breadbasket regions where it was implemented.4 But it sometimes came at a high social and environmental cost, including the depletion of soils, pollution of groundwater, and increased inequalities among farmers.5 And the productivity gains were not always sustainable in the long term.
Our strategy today must recognize the connection between climate change and food security. It must leverage the potential of the new sustainable agriculture paradigm with policies designed to scale up and mainstream the systems that have proven records of success. It must not only preserve land and other agricultural resources for future generations; it must actively restore lands and resources that have been degraded. It must monitor progress using multiple indicators, ones that go beyond the amount of money invested and the amount of crops harvested. It must also create the enabling macroeconomic environment needed to link sustainable agricultural systems to markets.
Because hunger can be attributed to a wide range of causes, a comprehensive strategy to combat food insecurity would have to address issues such as an international trade regime that penalizes developing countries through subsidies that stifle local markets, the infliction of an unsustainable burden of foreign debt, and the impact of speculation on commodities markets. We do not focus on these themes, which are well known. Our interest is in the paradigm of agricultural development under which most policymakers work, and whether it meets the challenge of today and tomorrow. We believe it does not, and we seek to outline an alternative path.
Climate Change and Energy Scarcity: Key Elements of the New Food Security Context
Climate change is already having dramatic consequences for agriculture and international food security. Rain patterns are shifting, leaving farmers unable to harvest mature crops. More prevalent droughts and floods place unprecedented stress on agricultural systems. Water sources are more variable and are rapidly exhausted. Peasants are already struggling with these disruptions in Central America and East Africa. And, by 2080, 600 million additional people could be at risk of hunger as a direct result of climate change.6 In Sub-Saharan Africa, arid and semiarid areas are projected to increase by 60 million to 90 million hectares, while, in Southern Africa, it is estimated that yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 percent between 2000 and 2020.7 Losses in agricultural production in a number of developing countries could be partially compensated by gains in other regions. But the overall result would be a decrease of at least 3 percent in productive capacity by the 2080s, and up to 16 percent if the anticipated carbon fertilization effects (incorporation of carbon dioxide in the process of photosynthesis) fail to materialize.8 Without closer international cooperation, the FAO and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warn that the direct impacts of climate disruptions on food production patterns will also lead to more “extreme volatility events on international food commodities markets”—the economists’ way of describing the 2008 global food price crisis.
Additionally, our current systems of agriculture are utterly dependent on fossil fuels. Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the International Energy Agency, warned in August 2009 that oil is running out far more quickly than previously predicted, and that global production is likely to peak in about ten years. A study of the 800 biggest oil fields reveals that the rate of decline in the output of the world’s oil fields is 6.7 percent a year.9 The impacts of energy scarcity have been obscured by the economic crisis over the past two years. However, the price of the crude oil barrel has constantly increased in 2009 and 2010 thanks to economic growth in China and other emerging countries. Its level in May 2011 exceeds the level preceding the 2008 food price crisis.10 Although the geopolitical situation in the Arab world and speculations about its consequences are currently driving oil prices up, economic recovery in developed nations and growth in the rest of the world will keep prices high.
A farmer gathers wheat in Bamiyan, Afghanistan. (UN Photo/Eric Kanalstein )
Modern agriculture is highly sensitive to oil prices. Our food relies on oil or gas at many stages: nitrogen fertilizers are made of natural gas, pesticides are made out of oil, agricultural machinery runs on oil, irrigation and modern food processing are highly energy-dependent, and food is transported over thousands of miles by road or air. While the exact impacts of peak oil on the availability and cost of both oil and natural gas are unknown, it will undoubtedly affect food security. Energy scarcity is thus a key element of any policy for reinvestment in agriculture. But it is one that many current efforts lack.
Our current methods of food production are thus deeply unsustainable. Water scarcity and land degradation—two of the anticipated results of climate change in many regions—will add to the challenge of feeding the world. Already, 37 percent of China’s total territory suffers from land degradation. And, while China has 21 percent of the world’s population, it has only 6.5 percent of the freshwater available globally.11
This can be changed. Some agricultural systems can mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and increase resilience to climate extremes. According to a United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report, the agricultural sector could be largely carbon neutral by 2030 and could produce enough food for a population estimated to increase to 9 billion by 2050—if systems proven to reduce emissions from agriculture were widely adopted today.
Roots of the Future: The New Agricultural Paradigm
A few decades ago, agronomists were faced with a sharp increase in pest outbreaks in modern monocultures, while ecologists were starting to model the complex interactions between insects and plants. At the same time, scientists were observing the effectiveness of traditional farming systems. The two scientific disciplines of agronomy and ecology converged, shaping the field of agroecology. Agroecology is the application of ecological science to the study, design, and management of sustainable agriculture.12,13 It seeks to mimic natural ecological processes, and it emphasizes the importance of improving the entire agricultural system, not just the plant.
The pioneers of agroecology proposed that agroecological systems be based on five ecological principles: (1) recycling biomass and balancing nutrient flow and availability; (2) securing favorable soil conditions for plant growth through enhanced organic matter; (3) minimizing losses of solar radiation, water, and nutrients by way of microclimate management, water harvesting, and soil cover; (4) enhancing biological and genetic diversification on cropland; and (5) enhancing beneficial biological interactions and minimizing the use of pesticides.14 Now, agroecologists are looking to integrate food systems, as well as agricultural systems, into the scope of agroecology.15
A growing number of scientists work and publish on this field,16,17 and, recently, the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD), a four-year study involving 400 experts from all regions as well as international organizations such as the World Bank, the FAO, and UNEP, called for a fundamental paradigm shift in agricultural development and strongly advocated the increase of agroecological science and practice.18 Agroecology is also at the core of the latest reports published by the FAO and UNEP.19,20 Meanwhile, the farmers united through La Via Campesina, the largest transnational peasant movement, have rapidly integrated agroecological principles in recent years.21
Today, agroecology has concrete applications on all continents. Its results speak for themselves. The widest study ever conducted on these approaches, led by Jules Pretty of the University of Essex, identified 286 recent interventions of resource-conserving technologies in 57 developing countries covering a total area of 37 million hectares in 2006.22 The average crop yield increase was 79 percent, and a full quarter of projects reported relative yields greater than 2.0 (i.e., 100 percent increase). Malawi, which ramped up its fertilizer subsidy program in 2002 following the dramatic drought-induced food crisis the year before, is now also implementing agroforestry systems using nitrogen-fixing trees.23 (Agroforestry involves planting trees with crops to more efficiently use land, nutrients, and water.) By mid-2009, over 120,000 Malawian farmers had received training and tree materials from the program, and support from Ireland has enabled extension of the program to 40 percent of Malawi’s districts, benefiting 1.3 million of its poorest people. Research shows that the program has increased yields from one ton per hectare to two to three tons per hectare, even if farmers cannot afford commercial nitrogen fertilizers.23 With an application of a quarter-dose of mineral fertilizer, maize yields may surpass four tons per hectare. The Malawi example shows that while investment in organic fertilizing techniques should be a priority, it should not exclude the use of other fertilizers. An optimal solution could be a “subsidy to sustainability” approach: an exit strategy from fertilizer subsidy schemes that would link fertilizer subsidies directly to agroforestry investments on the farm in order to provide for long-term sustainability in nutrient supply, and to build soil health for sustained yields and improved efficiency in fertilizer use.23 In Tanzania, 350,000 hectares of land have been rehabilitated in the Western provinces of Shinyanga and Tabora using agroforestry.24 In Zambia, agroforestry practices outperform fertilizers in rural areas where road infrastructure is poor and transport costs for fertilizer are high (which is the case in much of the African continent). The benefit to cost ratio for agroforestry practices ranges between 2.77 to 3.13 in contrast to 2.65 with subsidized fertilizer applications, 1.77 in fields with nonsubsidized fertilizer, and 2.01 in nonfertilized fields.25 Dennis Garrity, the director of the World Agroforestry Centre in Nairobi, estimates that a global implementation of agroforestry methods could result in 50 billion tons of carbon dioxide being removed from the atmosphere—about a third of the world’s total carbon reduction target.26 Such agricultural developments are examples of what many experts and scientists are calling the “evergreen revolution.” Among them is M.S. Swaminathan, the architect of the first Green Revolution in India, who now advocates organic farming.
In West Africa, stone barriers built alongside fields help retain water during the rainy season, improving soil moisture, replenishing water tables, and reducing soil erosion. Significant gains result: the water retention capacity of the soil is increased five- to tenfold, the biomass production ten- to twentyfold, and livestock can feed on the grass that grows along the stone barriers after the rains. Such “water harvesting” techniques are highly efficient in fighting desertification. They match the efficiency of mechanized irrigation, and are vital for food-insecure communities who live in dry environments. Indeed, it is impossible to build a truly Green Revolution without what Alan Savory calls a Brown Revolution: one that enhances soil organic matter, leading to sustainable productivity gains.27
In Kenya, researchers and farmers developed the “push-pull” strategy to control parasitic weeds and insects that damage crops. The strategy consists of “pushing” away pests from corn by interplanting corn crops with insect-repellent crops like Desmodium, while “pulling” them toward small plots of Napier grass, a plant that excretes a sticky gum that attracts the pest and traps it. The system controls pests without using costly and harmful insecticides. It also has other benefits, as Desmodium can be used as fodder for livestock. The push-pull strategy doubles maize yields and milk production while improving soils. The system has already spread to more than 10,000 households in East Africa through town meetings, national radio broadcasts, and farmer field schools.
Agroecological practices enhance on-farm fertility production. Malawian farmers call it a “fertilizer factory in the fields.” These practices reduce farmers’ reliance on external inputs and state subsidies. This, in turn, makes vulnerable smallholders less dependent on local retailers and moneylenders.
Similar examples exist around the world. In Japan, farmers found that ducks and fish were as effective as pesticide for controlling insects in rice paddies, while providing additional protein for their families. The ducks eat weeds and insects, thus reducing the need for labor-intensive weeding, otherwise done by hand by women, and duck droppings provide plant nutrients. The system has been adopted in China, India, and the Philippines. In Bangladesh, the International Rice Research Institute reports 20 percent higher crop yields, with net incomes increasing by 80 percent.28 In 1998, after Hurricane Mitch, agroecological plots on sustainable farms from southern Nicaragua to eastern Guatemala had on average 40 percent more topsoil, 69 percent less gully erosion, higher field moisture, and fewer economic losses than control plots on conventional farms.29 This greater resistance to climatic disruptions will be vital in the coming decades.
This is only the tip of the iceberg. Cutting edge innovation in agroecology is taking place in research centers in Santa Cruz, Nairobi, and Beijing. Scientists are discovering Iroko trees that build a carbonate-layer in the soil from CO2 captured in the atmosphere, offering new opportunities for long-term carbon sinks.30 They are designing future perennial cereal systems for sustainable grain production.31 And they are developing mycorrhizal products that could be applied in small doses to mimic in modern farming the mycorrhizal systems that exist between fungus and trees, a source of extraordinary productivity.32
It would be unwise, however, to wait for a silver-bullet solution to emerge from years of research and development. The most urgently needed effort for increasing food security is the scaling up of existing systems. Understanding what keeps agroecology underdeveloped is a necessary first step.
The Obstacles to the Necessary Change
We identify at least seven, largely self-reinforcing obstacles to the expansion of agroecological practices.
First, small-scale farmers, the primary practitioners of agroecology and the main beneficiaries of its expanded use, are marginalized in policy decisions. Small-scale farms use land and water more efficiently, and economists have long demonstrated the inverse relation between farm size and land productivity.33-40 However, a number of factors in the real world favor large farms: Large-scale operations are more competitive in the agribusiness sector because of facilitated access to credit (including from state-owned development banks). Large farms have a greater ability to integrate globalized food chains and to comply with the standards of the retail industry, including quality and sanitary standards but also social and environmental certification schemes. They also benefit from recent technological innovations that are designed to meet their needs, such as genetically modified crops, information technology, and zero-tillage machinery.40,41 In addition, decentralized small farmers experience agency problems and transaction costs that cannot be underestimated.35
At the same time, the belief that larger farms are more productive continues to be disseminated by influential authors.42 This is a mistake. Large, mechanized, monocropping operations are more competitive than small farms for the reasons explained above, but competitiveness and productivity are different things. Big farms outperform small farms according to only one measure of economic efficiency: productivity per unit of labor. Indeed, one agricultural worker on a modern, mechanized farm in the most fertile regions of the world can manage as much as 100 hectares of land, with a total output of 1,000 tons of cereal a year. A small-scale farmer with only a hoe can manage just one hectare, with a productivity per hectare as low as one ton a year in many African regions.43,44 But the global expansion of highly mechanized farming is something the planet simply cannot afford. The agroecological approaches highlighted above not only are more resource efficient—that is, they produce more from less—they also, with appropriate kinds of support, have a higher productivity per hectare, a different measure of productivity. The fact that some agroecological approaches require more labor can actually be positive, if the harvest provides sufficient incomes, since it can slow rural flight to cities and encourage rural development by attracting off-farm labor in rural areas. This is not a minor advantage as many countries face double-digit rates in urban unemployment.
Second, agroecology has rarely been supported by mainstream trade and agricultural policies. While agroecology supports diversified production systems, short food chains, and a balance of power among all actors, the structural adjustment programs of the 1980s and 1990s and the schedules of commitments under the Agreement on Agriculture of the World Trade Organization (WTO) led to a rapid (albeit still partial) liberalization of agricultural trade. This liberalization, in turn, encouraged the building of an export-led sector based on monocultures and the globalization of food chains, making transnational agribusiness companies increasingly influential.45 Similarly, while the development of agroecology would have required a strong state to empower small-scale farmers, disseminate best practices, and invest in agriculture, the “Washington consensus” was imposed on most developing countries through the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. This orientation toward economic deregulation and privatization resulted in a 25-year downsizing of public services and disinvestment in agricultural systems.46-50 The dominance of neoliberal thinking during the last three decades has had lasting impacts on agricultural policies. Although some questioned this dominant model after the 2007–2008 food price crisis, it continues to influence current debates and many elites in developing countries continue to believe that they must mimic the modernization-liberalization path pursued by developed countries.
The combination of the first two obstacles explains why small farmers are unable to compete with large-scale enterprises. Although the World Bank has put more emphasis on their importance in its 2008 World Development Report,51 small-scale agriculture is still seen as nonviable in many mainstream policy discourses.
Third, the development of agroecology is impeded by the absence of security of land tenure for a large fraction of small-scale farmers. Improved security of tenure plays a vital role in agroecology: it encourages the planting of trees, the more responsible use of soils, and other practices with long-term payoffs (planting fruit trees, for example, also contributes to improved nutrition and health). However, some recent developments are increasing the threats to security of tenure: large-scale land acquisitions and leases (widely known as land grabs) are putting an enormous pressure on land access for vulnerable land users. Yet the policy debate on their regulation continues to be largely influenced by the belief that any private investment, whatever form it takes, will contribute to food security.52
Fourth, the common belief that a Green Revolution complemented by a “gene revolution” could solve global hunger puts scientific and technological progress at the core of efforts to alleviate hunger, diverting attention from a broader exploration of agricultural development. Agroecological research struggles with inconsistent research investments as well as a “lock-in” situation (an accumulation of obstacles) in agricultural research systems, which both hinder its development.53
Fifth, agroecology has been mischaracterized as a return to the past and as incompatible with the mechanization of agriculture. Agroecology is not about a return to a model of agriculture that relies solely on human power for tilling and harvesting. Agroecological approaches are perfectly compatible with a gradual and adequate mechanization of farming. However, for the farmers who have only hoes for tools and who live in areas where oil is scarce, the first step toward development may well be use of animal traction rather than tractors. A forced path toward mechanization—one that focuses on rapid mechanization of farming or use of technology that is not affordable for small-scale farmers—could aggravate rural depopulation. One tractor replacing the daily work of twenty landless laborers is only progress if nineteen jobs are created in the secondary and tertiary sectors.43 Yet most developing countries currently cannot offer urban job opportunities to those who leave the farming sector. Instead, the production of simple mechanical equipment adapted to smallholders and fit for agricultural techniques that conserve soil and water will actually result in more jobs in the manufacturing sector in developing countries.54
Sixth, the absence of full inclusion of externalities in agrifood price systems has enabled the development of industrial farming despite important social and environmental costs, and has hindered a comprehensive valuation of the benefits of agroecology.55 The success of large plantations is, in part, attributable to the fact that the price of food does not reflect the real costs to society resulting from their operations, particularly from the impacts of their modes of production on the soil and climate56 and on public health.
And, finally, organizations with vested interests in the status quo have ignored or resisted the benefits of agroecology.
Scaling Up Sustainable Agriculture: Policies for Change
Despite these obstacles, the scaling up of existing agroecological practices is achievable if we can develop a policy framework to move from successful pilot projects to nationwide policies.57 Six key principles could help us do this.
First, we need better targeting. Focusing our efforts on the needs of smallholders may seem obvious, yet only a few existing programs effectively target this group. Today, 50 percent of the hungry live in small-scale farming households, living off less than two hectares of land, and 20 percent are landless.58 This is unacceptable. Nor is it adequate to fixate on productivity improvements in breadbasket regions while ignoring the people who live in more inhospitable environments such as semiarid lands or hills. Trickle-down economics failed the test in Africa and South Asia—the two regions with the highest incidence of hunger. In the 1960s, investing in the Punjab (as the Green Revolution did) did little to improve the situation of farmers in the eroded hills of Karnataka.
Second, the redistribution of public goods must be prioritized in food security policies. Agroecological practices require public goods such as extension services; storage facilities; rural infrastructure (roads, electricity, and information and communication technologies) for access to regional and local markets; credit and insurance against weather-related risks; agricultural research and development; education; and support to farmers’ organizations and cooperatives. The investment can be significantly more sustainable than the provision of private goods, such as fertilizers or pesticides that farmers can only afford so long as they are subsidized. World Bank economists have rightly noted that “underinvestment in agriculture is […] compounded by extensive misinvestment”59 with a bias toward the provision of private goods, sometimes motivated by political considerations.60 A 1985–2001 study of 15 Latin American countries in which government subsidies for private goods were distinguished from expenditures on public goods indicated that, within a fixed national agriculture budget, a reallocation of 10 percent of spending to supplying public goods increases agricultural per capita income by 5 percent, while a 10 percent increase in public spending on agriculture, keeping the spending composition constant, increases per capita agricultural income by only 2 percent.61 In other words, “even without changing overall expenditures, governments can improve the economic performance of their agricultural sectors by devoting a greater share of those expenditures to social services and public goods instead of non-social subsidies.”62 Thus, while the provision or subsidization of private goods may be necessary to a point, the opportunity costs should be carefully considered. Extension services that can teach farmers—often women—about agroecological practices are particularly vital. In today’s knowledge-based economies, increasing skills and disseminating information are as important as building roads or distributing improved seeds. Agroecological practices are knowledge-intensive and require the development of both ecological literacy and decision-making skills in farm communities.
Market failures affect the provision of these services. There is just too little incentive for the private sector to invest in these domains, and transaction costs are too high for local communities to create these goods themselves. States must step in. Seeds and fertilizers at subsidized prices are not a substitute for these public goods, although they may be competing for the provision of private assets in public budgets. Increasing the share of public goods in the government’s budget would have a significant positive impact on rural per capita income.
Third, if we want the best food security policies, we need a richer understanding of innovation that includes indigenous, local, and traditional knowledge. Simply put, not all innovations come from experts in white coats in laboratories. In large areas of Asia, farmers now join farmer field schools, a group-based learning process that enables farmer-to-farmer instruction. In India, farmers pool their seeds in community seed banks, which are administered through institutional arrangements to ensure the availability of planting material and the preservation and improvement of agrobiodiversity. And in Ghana, scientists launched radio broadcasts in local languages to popularize the best techniques to grow rice without additional inputs, rather than breeding new rice varieties. These techniques were identified through consultations with peasant groups, and they resulted in an average yield increase of 56 percent.63 Farmer field schools and community seed banks are not new technologies: they are social or institutional innovations. Such innovations are important to future food security because they can channel farmers’ experiences into knowledge-sharing processes with a considerable multiplier effect and at minimal cost.
Fourth, programs and policies must involve meaningful participation of smallholders. While some of the largest efforts to reinvest in agriculture shy away from a genuine engagement with representative farmer organizations, participation, if done properly, has several advantages for food security. First, it enables us to benefit from the experience and insights of the farmers. Second, participation can ensure that policies and programs are truly responsive to the needs of vulnerable groups. Third, participation empowers the poor, a vital step toward poverty alleviation because the lack of power exacerbates poverty: marginal communities often receive less support and are less able to advocate for their rights than the groups that are better connected to government. And finally, collaborations between farmers, scientists, and other stakeholders will facilitate innovation and create new knowledge.64
Existing projects demonstrate that participation works. Farmer field schools have been shown to significantly reduce pesticide use: large-scale studies from Indonesia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh recorded 35 to 92 percent reduction in insecticide use for rice.65 At the same time, the schools have contributed to a 4 to 14 percent improvement in cotton yields in China, India, and Pakistan.65 In Syria, Nepal, Nicaragua, and many other countries, participatory plant breeding schemes have been introduced in which researchers work directly with farmers, often combining traditional seeds with modern varieties.66 This practice empowers poor rural women who are key actors in seed management.67 In Latin America, the Campesino a Campesino movement has demonstrated that, when given the chance to generate and share agroecological knowledge among themselves, smallholders are very capable of improving their methods.68 In Cuba, a country that met its own peak oil when cheap oil imports from the USSR stopped, the adoption of agroecological practices was supported by the National Association of Small Farmers: between 2001 and 2009, the number of promotores (technical advisers and coordinators) increased from 114 to 11,935 and a total of 121,000 workshops on agroecological practices were organized.69 Participation, a key principle in the activities of the grassroots organizations and NGOs that currently promote agroecology,68,70 should be an element in all food security policies, from policy design to management of extension services. Experts, technical advisers, and farmers should be encouraged to collaborate in identifying innovative solutions.71
Fifth, states could use public procurement to speed a transition toward sustainable agriculture. In several European countries, schools have already started sourcing food from local producers with sustainability criteria. In June 2009 Brazil decided that 30 percent of the food served in its national school-feeding program should come from family farms.72
An agroforestry system (interplanting poplar trees and wheat) in southern France. The system produces more grain and wood by hectare than if the two crops were cultivated separately. (photo: Christian Dupraz)Sixth, performance criteria used to monitor agricultural projects must go beyond classical agronomical measures, such as yield, and economic measures, such as productivity per unit of labor. In a world of finite resources and in a time of widespread rural unemployment, productivity per unit of land or water is a vital indicator of success. Overall, measuring efficiency in the new agricultural paradigm of agroecology requires a comprehensive set of indicators that assesses the impacts of agricultural projects or new technologies on incomes, resource efficiency, hunger and malnutrition, empowerment of beneficiaries, ecosystem health, public health, and nutritional adequacy. The assessment of progress should be appropriately disaggregated by population, so that improvements in the status of vulnerable populations can be monitored.
Promoting agroecological approaches does not mean that breeding new plant varieties is unimportant. Indeed, it is vital. Already, new varieties with shorter growing cycles enable farmers to continue farming in regions where the crop season has already shrunk and where classical varieties did not have time to mature before the arrival of the dry season. Breeding can also improve the level of drought resistance in plant varieties, an asset for countries where lack of water is a limiting factor. Reinvesting in agricultural research must involve continued efforts in breeding, though caution is needed due to the drawbacks of current seed policies and of intellectual property regimes on seeds.73 Just as breeding should not be discontinued, but rather done with the participation of the farmers most in need, fertilizers should not be forbidden. Agroecology provides the larger framework for their use, and it emphasizes that fertilization can be pursued through natural means, such as nitrogen-fixing trees.
Linking Sustainable Farming to Markets: The Political Economy of Food Chains
The above principles are not sufficient in themselves. Efforts by agronomists will be pointless if the right institutions, macroeconomic regulations, and accountability mechanisms are not established and implemented. In other words, farmers need enabling economic and institutional environments, allowing the 500 million households that depend on small-scale farming today not only to put food on the table, but also to market their surpluses. Public action is needed, not in order to “feed the world,” as stated in the food security policies of the past century, but rather in order to “help the world feed itself.”
Many, including respected food security pundits, think smallholder farmers are incapable of producing sufficient food for rapidly growing urban markets. This is simply false. The reality is that small food producers face a number of obstacles when trying to market their surpluses. We met with smallholders in Benin who insisted that improving market conditions is a greater priority than—and a condition for—improving crop productivity.74 An enabling market environment does not mean greater trade liberalization and a favorable environment for investment, as proponents of the “new conventional wisdom,” a slightly adapted version of the Washington consensus, contend.75 Rather, it means supporting the diversification of trade and distribution channels in order to create the conditions for genuine choice by small farmers between rural and urban markets and, in some cases, the high-value markets of industrialized countries.76 It also means preventing gains from being wrested from smallholders by better-resourced farmers.
Today, the limited number of buyers, the paucity of information on prices, and the absence of storage facilities all contrive to deprive farmers of any choice but to sell during the harvest period, when prices are at their lowest. A rapid and significant expansion of storage facilities capable of preventing postharvest losses in rural areas is needed. Mechanisms such as warehouse receipt systems are spreading across Asia and Africa. Such systems enable farmers to sell crops to warehouses at harvest time, but obtain the additional revenue generated when the food is sold at higher prices during the dry season.77
States should also aim to improve equity in the food system, especially in global supply chains where inequity is most pronounced. In too many cases, global food chains primarily reward large producers who have access to inputs (land, water, and credit), technologies, and political influence, and who can meet the volume and standards required by global buyers and retailers. Where small food producers are willing to be integrated into global food chains, states should actively support them through technical assistance and cheap credit, if needed. The promotion of modern farmer cooperatives is one way to improve the market position of producers, especially women. Ultimately, what matters, from a social point of view, is that the incomes of the poorest increase, whether they choose to serve local, regional, or global markets. As Nobel laureate Amartya Sen has remarked, hunger is not necessarily a problem of food availability; it is primarily a problem of people lacking the purchasing power to procure the food they need.78
Because the power relationships that exist in food chains are so central to global hunger—over two-thirds of those who are hungry today produce food—centralized control over key agricultural functions must be dismantled.79 In the Brazilian soybean market, 200,000 farmers attempt to sell to five main commodity traders. Three large transnational commodity buyers—ADM, Cargill, and Barry Callebaut—dominate the Ivorian cocoa industry. Four firms carry out 45 percent of all coffee roasting, and four international coffee traders control 40 percent of an industry on which 25 million producers depend. The result of this power distribution is that a significant portion of the reinvestment in agriculture will be captured by global players, instead of vulnerable food producers.
Stopping the Damage: The Role of Land
Farmers around the world face increasing pressures from large-scale development projects (including dams), extractive industries, logging, land conversion to agrofuels, and the creation of special economic zones. The result is that the poorest farmers are priced out of land markets and that evictions are rising everywhere, cutting farmers off from their livelihoods.80-82
States should strengthen customary land tenure systems, while at the same time weeding out their discriminatory components against women, and should reinforce tenancy laws in order to significantly improve the protection of land users. There is also ample empirical evidence of the positive impacts of land redistribution on the livelihoods of smallholders as well as on broader rural development.37 Agrarian reform with a strong redistributive component has been an important element in economic growth in South Korea and China. The belief that land redistribution is communism has led many to reject it out of hand. But, if it is part of comprehensive rural development policies that support the beneficiaries of land redistribution, complemented by an implementation of the six principles we put forward in this paper, it can contribute to increased food security and nutrition, prevent environmental losses, and put people to work in rural areas, thus reducing the effects of ecological, financial, and economic crises. The current wave of large-scale land acquisitions and leases unfortunately moves us in the opposite direction: in many cases it amounts to nothing less than a counter-agrarian reform that poses threats to food security.52
Farmers-in-Chief
Our “farmers-in-chief”—heads of states—can make the new paradigm on agriculture, food, and hunger a reality.83 The strategies highlighted in this essay can shape productive, sustainable, healthy food systems for the twenty-first century. Concrete recommendations to states and donors have been identified to scale up these promising agroecological farming systems and to shape an economic and institutional environment that will allow them to thrive. If significant progress is not achieved in the next three years, huge opportunities will be missed for feeding the world’s poorest people, mitigating climate change, and avoiding worsening water scarcity. In that case, coming generations will judge us harshly.
References
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- Global hunger declining, but still unacceptably high 1–2 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Economic and Social Development Department, Policy Brief, September 2010).
- Evenson, RE & Gollin, D. Assessing the impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000. Science 300, 758–762 (2003).
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Comments
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50 Comments so far
Show AllAll well and good. Certainly we should be implementing agroecological and permaculture practices. But the suggestion that that, or anything else, will feed the 9 billion people projected to be on the planet by 2050--is misguided and unfounded optimism. We've built a world dependent on virtually unlimited, readily available, and cheap energy. That energy is essentially gone and production of everything--food included--is going to decrease dramatically. There isn't going to be remotely enough food and we need to stop pretending that some silver bullet is going to rectify that rather unpleasant reality.
The article does not suggest any silver bullets. It suggests practical measures. You just do not like that it will not adopt the lazy flabby liberal position on population.
The authors are not proposing a "silver bullet", but rather a new toolset to add to the kit.
A main point of the article is the weakness of industrial ag's dependence on fossil fuels. Agroecology is not so dependent.
9 billion people CAN be reliably provided a healthy diet from the Earth's resources -from a technical standpoint. Whether the socio-political/organizational capabilities of our societies is the doubtful part. And, yes, it is very doubtful.
And even sweet light crude oil is not "essentially gone", just at -or slightly past- peak production. Production will "decrease dramatically", on a timeline spanning generations, not years.
matti--a little off topic but thanks for the paragraph-making tip. someone else noted it but I didn't write it down. How in the world does one know things like that?
And I would agree that those silly little psycho-socio-political things related to humans often put a monkey wrench in theories and plans.
Right on. Except that the world population is unlikely to ever reach 9 billion. For example, the business-as-usual scenario from the Limits-to-Growth book projects population peaking in the 2020 to 2030 time frame. Things are likely to get quite nasty as global growth turns to long term contraction by the latter part of this decade.
Note that food prices and oil prices move in tandem and rising food prices are the leading cause of riots, which often lead to regime change. When the first world can no longer rescue the thrid world from disasters, famine, epidemics, and war will become endemic in some areas (ecological overshoot and collapse). Think Somalia multiplied many times over. Think London-type riots in the US after some form of bankruptcy.
First world rescuing the third? What the fuck are you talking about? The first world is a leech of the third, not a savior.
Having survived a near starvation time, I believe true hunger causes more pain than any other source, including violence and torture. I applaud work aimed at reducing it.
Reducing hunger is not enough. We need to reduce our population -- by a lot. The article talks about many things that impede change in agriculture, such as massive corporate agriculture, property ownership, competing industries, etc. But all of those are symptoms of massive over population. We will reach 10 billion human beings some time during this century. This will lead to massive environmental destruction, no matter what ecologically sound practices we may adopt.
Your last sentence is a contradiction in terms.
Ecologically sound practices may allow us to substitute environmental CHANGE for "environmental destruction".
And maldistribution of wealth and massively unegalitarian use of resources has more to do with environment destruction than baseline population.
Modern thinking opens this long accepted idea of overpopulation to serious question. There are areas on earth which have been turned back into productivity after the population increased enough to build the water entrapment walls described in this article.
Additionally, restoration of indigenous agroecological knowledge augmented by modern education introduces the population reducing aspect of education itself.
Very well said. It takes population increases to harvest the "division of labor" benefits, to achieve more complex organization, to advance knowledge in science and technology, to ENABLE more people (AND actually other flora & fauna too, potentially) to live. When few hands are available for work, a society CAN'T evolve much beyond the primitive hunting/gathering stage. The malthusian claptrap was another invention of the venetian bankster class, to keep "their herd" (ie. us) in check & available for enslavement to their purposes.
one simple way to improve agriculture is to increase the number of farmers. lots of small farms and lots of farmers.
i don't have any references to back this up except close to 30 yrs farmin..
You are the only one in this thread, so far, with the correct answer.
I'm down to $5 and $10 per week grocery bills for two people on a suburban lot with 6" rain/year, and I am storing food. This is in its first year, and I am out of shape and a longtime city dweller, plain ignorant about most of this, with little free time and no particular talent besides research. There were investments, and I am still in the red, but barring surprises I will not be for long. The labor was significant for the first couple months, breaking machine-compacted ground and digging swales along the contour of a hillside, but it has reduced considerably even though almost everything I do I do for the first time. Water use has fallen even through the summer as the larger plants become established. I don't know that I can get to zero here in the desert, but I am encouraged to see that we are below we were using 11 months ago without the garden.
A friend cut his food bills in half farming microgreens in little plastic trays set on the roof of his apartment. He's single, and uses about half of one 9" by 12" tray each day. The greens take roughly two weeks to reach a point where he can harvest them, so something like 7 or 8 trays take care of almost all the fresh produce he eats, but he has about twice that because he wants and probably needs the variety. A couple or a family could have more variety without planting extra to do it.
His initial investment--including trays, top-quality seeds, plant food and planting media--came to less than $200 for well over a year's worth of supplies, and extras to try varietals with which he was unfamiliar.
To put this in perspective, his operation, tools and supplies included, takes a bit over 10 square feet and uses less water per week than a shower.
To look at a larger social shift, one might look at the organoponic gardens that developed in Cuba after the USSR collapsed and left them without the imported resources on which Cuban agriculture had come to depend.
I must say, there are advantages. The plants do not tell me that I am insane or idealistic or that I am a fool to deny myself the pleasures of intoxication and suicide, that I have broken XYZ laws or that they have to ask the boss "cause that ain't the way we do things here."
So far, I'm not sure what the down side is.
That's just what I was thinking while reading this article. It will be the NEXT great migration; from the mega-cities to small-farm towns. Alot of our state universities began as state agricultural colleges in the 19th century. Maybe they'll turn out degreed and knowledgable family farmers in the 21st century, supported by, state extension services, road/rail/canal/grid/water utility infrastucture, a small-machine/handtools industry, making electric/hydrogen powered roto-tillers and riding lawn mower-sized tractors instead of big john deeres with 10-foot tall wheels, for large, corporate, mono-crop farms.
Food is a nat'l security/general welfare issue, NOT a mere commodity to be traded on a "free"(ie. corporate/bankster/feudal) market, as per the dictates of WTO "liberalization" (ie. feudalization) policies. This can happen when we manage to make our govts. listen to people once again, instead of listening to "MONEY"(ie. corporations and financiers/banks). Someone please restate the way to make paragraphs. My old way of doing it doesn't work. I'll pay attention this time. Thanks.
Thanks to matti last week I know how to make paragraphs. Start the new paragraph with "<" "p" ">" but don't use quotes.
As an aside, I have read that it is getting harder and harder to get capital equipment in small scale. They seem to have thought of everything.
Yes. They have thought of everything, except the fact that their plan simply won't work, AND the fact that they are starting to piss off the REAL owners of this place (the denizens of Asgard; and We the People, the stewards/caretakers of this place).
< p > Thanks for the info.
The issue of hunger has little to do with the amount of food available. The manufacture of scarcity is one of the methods by which profits are kept high under capitalism. "Food scarcity" is rarely the product of a lack of global food production, rather it is a product of a highly unequal food distribution system that must follow the exigencies of profit maximization. It will matter little to the billions of starving people in the world that the food they can't afford to buy is grown "sustainably."
Reading the article -in full- might help to avoid criticizing it for failing to address issues it did actually address. ;)
I stand corrected. (I do recognize that it is important to debunk pseudo-scientific memes that support the status quo.) However, science is not independent of the dominant global socio/economic system in which science operates. I didn't see the word capitalism mentioned. Yes, there exists all kinds of reforms (detailed in the article) that could equitably feed the planet and do so sustainably (this is not new, btw). However, that is not what the capitalist class wants. They couldn't care less about the billions that they put into poverty; they couldn't care less about climate change. The evidence is abundant. The changes that the authors outline will never be implemented unless there exists social movements of many millions that are willing to demand those changes by sustained direct action.
Agreed in full.
I didn't bother reading the article - it is just some academic lawyer and economist spouting sh*t.
Of course science can feed the growing population. The question is should science help? Given the scorched-earth harm to the environment and our fellow denizens by any kind of factory farming, the key challenge is not to feed the increasing starving millions, but to limit our population to sustainable limits.
The bottom line is we are NOT living sustainably now, nor at anytime it at least the past century. Science is already behind the curve. Ditto morality and ethics.
And you are what? Some random anonymous loudmouth poster spouting shit.
You should have read the article!
It is completely NOT about what you assume from the headline it is about.
Willful ignorance can lead to egg-on-the-face such as this. ;)
"I didn't bother reading the article - it is just some academic lawyer and economist spouting sh*t."
A palino-bachmanesque comment
Seven, kick out Monsanto and add Planned Parenthood to the mix
While there are some good ideas presented here, the writer is yet another progressive pundit claiming the food crisis is related to supply and demand.
This is simply NOT TRUE.
The primary reason that food prices have taken off is that big banks and hedge funds are investing in commodities in a way that has never been seen before and has been enabled by the deregulation of Wall Street.
The so-called liberal Krugman has stated that high food prices are due to the weather. Global warming may weaken food production but it is not a significant factor yet. Some regions may actually benefit while other suffer. We don't know yet.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/27/how_goldman_sachs_created_the_food_crisis
How Goldman Sachs Created the Food Crisis
"Don't blame American appetites, rising oil prices, or genetically modified crops for rising food prices. Wall Street's at fault for the spiraling cost of food."
Wheat has double in the last five years in spite of surplus global production during those years yet there has been increased speculation. India had large quantities rot in storage not long ago. The wheat market was so saturated in 2010 that many American farmers planted less and switched to other crops. And the producing farmers have not seen their selling prices increase much compared to the the profits of speculators.
And the authors are also presenting the "peak oil" theory which has been around since the 1970's and was created by the oil industry as spin to justify high prices for about abundant commodity. Currently there is a global glut of oil and the Saudis are cutting back production. Central Asia has reserves estimated to equal the Middle East which is why the corporate imperial American war machine has occupied Afghanistan in an attempt to create a pipeline corridor. There are also proven reserves of oil and gas in Afghanistan. Iraq may very well have more oil than Saudi Arabia but production has always been low and even lower since the American criminal invasion.
Today's oil prices are completely artificial and are being driven up by speculation. No one seems to question why oil was $20 per barrel prior to the invasion of Iraq and then hit $140 not long after when there was no global shortage.
The real problem with fuels like oil and gas and coal is that there is so much within the earth that if it is all extracted and burned we will in time have a horrible global warming effect.
This article is essentially ecclesiastical gibberish written by autodidacts who lack common sense. Pinheaded over-intellectualization that is a form of rationalization that avoids the real issue, as tomcarberry suggests: OVERPOPULATION. //
How many grains of wheat can be grown on the head of a pin? Tweak this input, shift that resource, hire more consultants, install a GPS on your John Deere to get color-coded printouts from a satellite showing the pH of your acreage, oops, I mean hectares.
Desperate pedants who have deluded themselves into thinking that their computerized model of the world IS the world. The forest is burning around them and they are counting trees. Institutionalized denial of the Third Rail of neo-liberal elitism: too many people, too few resources, so little time... and so much clever stupidity.
-30-
This post of yours is essentially garbage, trash, dross, written by someone with flabby lazy thinking.
Desperate pedants who have deluded themselves into thinking that their model of their world, based on nothing more than their obsessions about population is the world. Constant spouting of the obsession of western middle class neoliberals: population.
You label a Professor and a Research Associate at a major University "autodidacts" -that at the same time employ a "computerized model" (of their own making?!?)- and you expect people to take you seriously?
Why not just write:
"Blah-dee-blah-blah OVERPOPULATION blah-dee elitism blah"
At least then your post would be merely nonsensical, instead of actually self-contradictory. ;)
Excellent, thorough, and well-referenced article.
A nice change for CD. ;)
I agree with this article on many levels. The authors correctly point out that our current agriculture manufacturing system competes economically, but not ecologically. The authors correctly point out that we must change.
The authors don't point out, but surely they know but didn't need it for this article, is that our modern agricultural system, which focuses on wheat, corn, and rice, is not an optimal diet. The more ecological farming suggested by the authors would lead to much greater consumption of vegetables, which in turn would lead to better help (wheat, sugar, and other modern dietary staples lead to a lot of diseases, such as diabetes and more)
But despite all of that, we still have billions more people than this planet can support and take into account the rights of all other beings on it. Humans, especially the people of the book who make up most of the power brokers, believe they are separate from the plant and animal world. Not just separate, but above it, like god on high. Humans believe they can re-make the ecology of the world, but disregard the enormous suffering we cause to other sentient beings. As one example, we murder over 8 billion sentient beings a year in the USA alone. Why? Because of profit.
"The more ecological farming suggested by the authors would lead to much greater consumption of vegetables, which in turn would lead to better help (wheat, sugar, and other modern dietary staples lead to a lot of diseases, such as diabetes and more)"
Nothing wrong with whole grains. They provide calories and protein and fiber, although not complete protein. Just add beans or a complete protein food in moderation.
Billions of poor people around the world are not getting enough calories. Vegetables are healthy but do not supply much caloric energy. And veggies and fruits are often heavily sprayed with pesticides and herbicides in both America and other regions.
Check out the Dean Ornish books on how to control type 2 diabetes and heart disease without drugs, but by changing what you eat. Pasta and whole grains are primary foods in his program as they have a low glycemic index and are low in fat. I know two diabetics who went this route and are doing very well.
His basic diet is not far from the old macrobiotic diet, yet includes more variety.
Refined sugar is a completely different monster as well as diets high in animal fat.
Dr. Ornish has helped a lot of people, but everyone would do well to eliminate wheat products from their diet. Although they have a low glycemic index, like fructose they causes insulin resistance in the long term. That is why high fructose corn syrup (a grain byproduct), which has a low glycemic index, is so harmful to health. Fructose doesn't change your blood sugar levels because it doesn't go into your bloodstream, instead it goes directly into your portal vein and into your liver. This in turn has caused our type II diabetes epidemic that is spreading world wide.
People should eat at least 75% raw foods. We can't eat grains raw and anthropological evidence shows we didn't eat them until the agricultural revolution. Many people (perhaps most) have gluten intolerances, because we have not yet adapted genetically to these new foods.
The points you make are certainly well founded - BUT IMO The main focus at this point should be to move away from the meat-centered SAD diet, GMO crops & fast / junk foods. The main problem w processed grains at this point is they've been denatured & bleached [IE: corn-sweetener, white sugar {though so-called low-cal artificial sweeteners are even worse}, white flour & meals, etc]. That along w excess sugar, salt, fat & cholesterol [which only comes from animal based food] & food additives [IE: Chems] -AND lack of exercise are the primary reasons for the heart condition / diabetes / obesity epidemics [IE: health crisis] in the US & the West...
I am A whole grain/bread eating type. This is bad news because I love Whole Grain Breads...
What would you suggest substituting this diet with??? {Rice?}
Grains can be eaten raw if they are sprouted or just soaked for at least 24 hours.
Someone once told me there is evidence that huter/gatherers ate grains, but they ate them directly from the plant when the kernels had not yet dried. It is called "milk wheat" but I've not found any other references to this.
No sorry, pasta and whole grains are not low GI foods. They are relatively low, compared to sucrose, white table sugar, but in absolute terms they are not low. IOW, pasta is better than white table sugar, but it is still much worse than say, broccoli.
That Ornish promotes pasta as low GI, shows just how worthless Ornish's recs on diet are.
And, no, fat is NOT the evil substance that Ornish claims it is.
And broccoli is relatively high in calcium too.
For a review of animal fat from a cardiac surgeon see: www.donaldmiller.com
Pasta is considered "not too bad" if it is al dente--per Dr Andrew Weil.
One of the problems with wheat is that they have been hybridizing to increase gluten (bigger air bread). If one is going to eat grains he/she should be very physically active Barley would be the best choice as it is the lowest glycemic grain, and also low in gluten.
You cannot extrapolate from Ornish or Atkins. We are all biochemical individuals and what works for one may not help another. What Atkins and Ornish diets have in common is the absence of processed food--carb, fat or protein. That is the first place to start improving a diet.
Gluten is the protein part of wheat.
This article makes good points especially about more sustainable / natural farming methods & helping traditional farmers [IE: family farms] stay on the land & grow food rather than driving them off the land into over-crowded cities & slums. Plus industrial farming is heavily dependent on petro-chems, mono-crop farming & increasingly GMO crops- leading to further environmental degradation. But the authors didn't directly challenge neo-liberal so-called global 'free'-market capitalistic model-policies-institutions [IE: NAFTA, GATT, WTO, IMF, Monsanto, ADM, Bayer Crop Science, etc]- though much /most of what they've proposed here implies just such a challenge.
I see some posters here couldn't wait to push the phony 'liberal' solution of population control [invariable focused on Africa & the so-called 3rd World] as their main solution to the alleged food shortages [& even Global Warming / Climate Change] 'crisis'. Yet the average total World yearly production of grains is approx 2 - 2.3 billion metric tons/yr. That's enough to feed 7 billion people for as much 4 - 6 YRS!!! - IE: There's should be plenty of food to go around to feed everyone w plenty to spare [not even counting how much land can be reclaimed - & land used for cash-crops be reallocated for growing food]! The problem has been more to do w distribution [ where the food is going] than production IE: Wall St Bankster type market manipulations.., Corn & Soy being used to feed farm animals [which should naturally eat grass & leaves anyway] & for so-called bio-fuels for cars - instead of feeding people... Case in Point- At least 75% of soy & 50% of corn in the US goes to cattle feed & currently as much 25% of US corn goes for making ethanol [enough to feed 1 Billion + people for a yr]. And of the 25% US soy & corn used for human consumption Much of THAT goes into making cooking oil & corn sweetener... This kind of jacked-up so-called 'free'-market economics is at least as responsible [& probably more so] for food crisis & wildly rising prices as is droughts, floods, etc. Then there's the spectacular failures of GMO crops hyped by the likes Bill Gates & Monsanto, etc in various African & 3rd World countries.
But the Western SAD meat centered - fast / junk food diet is based on CAFO factory cattle / pig / poultry farms which is based on based on rapidly over-fattening of these GROSSLY ABUSED Animals on GMO corn & soy [as well as ground carcasses & crap {often literally SHIT} CAFO factory farming is reason for E-Coli & Salmonella contamination in food] - Thus a more sustainable diet requires moving away from the unhealthy & unsustainable SAD meat centered diet which is NEW in human history [its only been around for the past 100 - 200yrs -&- has rapidly been reaching the point of unsustainability in the past 50 - 60yrs] - toward a more healthy & sustainable plant based diet...
That people in California, a rich state, a bread / food basket state, are having food security issues, see the other article on CD, should tell anyone who looks at what happens in the real world that the problem is not population size.
But then, liberals who rant about population refuse to address material reality.
This article takes a suspiciously optimistic view of the so-called green revolution, which caused considerable problems and solved little. The vague and optimistic appraisal of a "gene revolution" is at least as suspect, given Monsanto's predation on farmers across the globe and the wave of suicides that has resulted among farmers in India.
The problem here is not that there might not be some genetic modification or some hybrid strain that might be useful to someone somewhere; there probably is. The problem is that ALL of these strains and most all of the legal and social systems surrounding them are geared to the profit of a few companies, most notably Monsanto, and that the drive of capital to achieve monopoly has already eliminated somewhere close to 90% of genetic diversity in human food crops.
You are blind and prejudiced on the issue of "gene revolution". One revolution we need to happen very soon in my opinion is the development of plants, grasses, and trees which can extract water not only from the soil but also from the atmosphere in times and regions of droughts. If anything that would be a pure "gene revolution" and worth several Nobel Prizes.
The best gene technology could do so far was to half assedly mix in a gene from another species somehow, and even that with not a really finely tuned technology. Creating completely new traits that work and designing complete ecosystems into which these integrate, better and more efficiently than evolution in a few decades? What hubris. Most human technologies depend on abundance of power and materials that can be wasted. There's not a single self-sufficient system based on high technology, and looking at how things are going, there won't be any any time soon. Traditional systems of agriculture might have some great ideas and science can help a lot, but not with this completely undeserved arrogance.
The article and only a few of the comments even mention animal agriculture, which is the basic problem. It is far and away the least efficient way to feed people. There have been countless well-researched books on this subject. Animal agriculture is a disaster for the environment and human health, not to mention the animals involved. The most sustainable system for producing human food is one based on plant foods. See "ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY: Integrating Environment, Conservation & Health" by David Pimentel, Island Press, 2001.
I no longer have a personal opinion about animal agriculture and environmental impact except that animals should be raised naturally and not in CAFOs but Joel Salatin, of Polyface Farms, claims that if all animals were raised naturally all the extra carbon around could be sequestered in 10 years.
I have discovered parallel logic and indifference around shelter, sanitation and water.
All these subjects are shared on the internet here :
http://www.ferrocement.com/Shelter-2010/post-1_5-2010.html ... shelter 2010
http://www.ferrocement.com/Shelter-2009/5-22-09.html ... Shelter-2009
http://www.ferrocement.com/tankBook/ch14.en.html ... rainwater
http://www.ferrocement.com/Compost_Toilet/compost-toilet-elements.en.html ... Compost toilet elements
http://ferrocement.com/Compost_Toilet/compost-toilet-2010.en.html ... Compost toilet production feasibility test
I have learned that agricultural revolutions, especially when attended by health revolutions have the unintended consequences of greatly accelerating the growth of the human population on Earth. Apparently that was one of the consequences of the so-called "Columbian Exchange", of the agro-revolution triggered by the so-called "Mini Ice Age" spearheaded by Dutch and English farmers, the bringing into culture of the soils of the USA during the 19th century, and the "green revolution after WW2. Is that good or bad? I don't know. My Buddhist friends tell me that it is both good and bad.
To rfloh---
Re your Aug 21 2011 - 4:37pm comment, which intentionally mis-paraphrased my post, I had been avoiding another Third Rail here, that most others also seem to avoid: the Pope!
Not that other religions also promote the absence of birth control, but the traditional Catholic Church of Rome is by far the most influential in our "Western" societies. The biblical imperative, "be fruitful and multiply" might have made sense when humans on Earth were counted in millions and child labor was part of highly-integrated essentially tribal existence, but times have changed.
On my own paternal side, in the early 19th century in the U.S. Midwest, 6-to-10 children were very common. Population density was very low by comparison with today. Hunting and forest-clearing and the use of the wood already present to build houses and out-buildings were over time replaced by an agriculture that sucked minerals out of the soil, until by the 1930s the government reports observed that most Indiana soils were depleted of minerals. MEANWHILE, for reasons not entirely clear (e.g., birth control?), each next generation that still held farmland in Indiana tended to have fewer children!!! Population pressure was obvious by the time of the Civil War. If you had 10 children and left your land to them, they now owned a tenth of what you owned, etc. At a certain point this division could not be sustained, which is one major reason why my branch of the Indiana Patriarchy sold out and moved with Joseph Smith III to Missouri, for a new expansion of Hope! (This migration was well-organized in advance...)
By the late 19th century, with the introduction of such as steam-driven tractors, the need for rural child labor was further mitigated (for example, fewer beasts of burden had to be fed and watered).
I could go on, but my point is that overpopulation remains a PRIMARY challenge to our survival, for a host of reasons, and your vitriolic reply to my post suggests that you are a closet religious bigot.
Meanwhile, I'll stick with my view that the authors of the article are autodidacts, which is actually not unusual in Academia, where authors often support their own claims by citing their own flawed work. Be happy that I have not accused you of being a Troll, given your several other incantations on this thread.
Technological mitigation of OVERPOPULATION is part of the Myth of Progress. Long documented, little-reported. And several academic disciplines support this view from many different angles. (Perhaps the real irony here is that we did not attain big brains by being the dominant species...)
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