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What Could Truly End the Space Program? A Nuclear Disaster Overhead
What is NASA’s future now that Atlantis has landed and the shuttle program is over? If NASA persists in using nuclear power in space, the agency’s future is threatened.
Artist concep of Juno taking Jupiter orbit. A much more comforting image than the a plutonium disaster a mile above the Earth's surface. (Photo: NASA)
Between November 25 and December 15 NASA plans to launch for use on Mars a rover fueled with 10.6 pounds of plutonium, more plutonium than ever used on a rover.
The mission has a huge cost: $2.5 billion.
But if there is an accident before the rover is well on its way to Mars, and plutonium is released on Earth, its cost stands to be yet more gargantuan.
NASA’s Final Environmental Impact Statement for what it calls its Mars Science Laboratory Mission says that if plutonium is released on Earth, the cost could be as high as $1.5 billion to decontaminate each square mile of “mixed-use urban areas” impacted.
What‘s the probability of an accident releasing plutonium? The NASA document says “the probability of an accident with a release of plutonium” is 1-in-220 “overall.”
If you knew your chance of not surviving an airplane flight -- or just a drive in a car -- was 1 in 220, would you take that trip?
And is this enormous risk necessary?
In two weeks, there’ll be a NASA mission demonstrating a clear alternative to atomic energy in space: solar power.
On August 5, NASA plans to launch a solar-powered space probe it’s named Juno to Jupiter. There’s no atomic energy involved, although NASA for decades has insisted that nuclear power is necessary for space devices beyond the orbit of Mars. With Juno, NASA will be showing it had that wrong.
“Juno will provide answers to critical science questions about Jupiter, as well as key information that will dramatically enhance present theories about the early formation of our own solar system,” says NASA on its website. “In 2016, the spinning, solar-powered Juno spacecraft will reach Jupiter.” It will be equipped with “instruments that can sense the hidden world beneath Jupiter’s colorful clouds” and make 33 passes of Jupiter.
As notes Aviation Week and Space Technology: “The unique spacecraft will set a record by running on solar power rather than nuclear radioisotope thermoelectric generators previously used to operate spacecraft that far from the Sun.”
The Mars rover to be launched, named Curiosity by NASA, will be equipped with these radioisotope thermoelectric generators using plutonium, the deadliest radioactive substance.
Juno, a large craft - 66-feet wide - will be powered by solar panels built by a Boeing subsidiary, Spectrolab. The panels can convert 28 percent of the sunlight that them to electricity. They’ll also produce heat to keep Juno’s instruments warm. This mission’s cost is $1.1 billion.
In fact, Juno is not a wholly unique spacecraft. In 2004, the European Space Agency launched a space probe called Rosetta that is also solar-powered. Its mission is to orbit and land on a comet - beyond the orbit of Jupiter.
Moreover, there have been major developments in “solar sails” to propel spacecraft. Last year, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency launched its Ikaros spacecraft with solar sails taking it to Venus. In January, NASA itself launched its NanoSail-D spacecraft. The Planetary Society has been developing several spacecraft that will take advantage of photons emitted by the Sun to travel through the vacuum of space.
At no point will Juno (or the other solar spacecrafts) be a threat to life on Earth. This includes Juno posing no danger when in 2013 it makes a flyby of Earth. Such flybys making use of Earth’s gravity to increase a spacecraft’s velocity have constituted dangerous maneuvers when in recent years they’ve involved plutonium-powered space probes such as NASA’s Galileo and Cassini probes.
Curiosity is a return to nuclear danger.
NASA’s Final Environmental Impact statement admits that a large swath of Earth could be impacted by plutonium in an accident involving it. The document’s section on “Impacts of Radiological Releases” says “the affected environment” could include “the regional area near the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and the global area.”
“Launch area accidents would initially release material into the regional area, defined…to be within …62 miles of the launch pad,” says the document. This is an area from Cape Canaveral west to Orlando.
But “since some of the accidents result in the release of very fine particles less than a micron in diameter, a portion of such releases could be transported beyond…62 miles,” it goes on. These particles could become “well-mixed in the troposphere” -- the atmosphere five to nine miles high -- “and have been assumed to potentially affect persons living within a latitude band from approximately 23-degrees north to 30-degrees north.” That’s a swath through the Caribbean, across North Africa and the Mideast, then India and China Hawaii and other Pacific islands, and Mexico and southern Texas.
Then, as the rocket carrying Curiosity up gains altitude, the impacts of an accident in which plutonium is released would be even broader. The plutonium could affect people “anywhere between 28-degrees north and 28-degrees south latitude,” says the NASA document. That’s a band around the mid-section of the Earth including much of South America, Africa and Australia.
Dr. Helen Caldicott, president emeritus of Physicians for Social Responsibility, has long emphasized that a pound of plutonium if uniformly distributed could hypothetically give a fatal dose of lung cancer to every person on Earth. A pound, even 10.6 pounds, could never be that uniformly distributed, of course. But an accident in which plutonium is released by a space device as tiny particles falling to Earth maximizes its lethality. A millionth of a gram of plutonium can be a fatal dose. The pathway of greatest concern is the breathing in plutonium particle.
As the NASA Environmental Impact Statement puts it: “Particles smaller than about 5 microns would be transported to and remain in the trachea, bronchi, or deep lung regions.” The plutonium particles “would continuously irradiate lung tissue.”
“A small fraction would be transported over time directly to the blood or to lymph nodes and then to the blood,” it continues. Once plutonium “has entered the blood via ingestion or inhalation, it would circulate and be deposited primarily in the liver and skeletal system.” Also, says the document, some of the plutonium would migrate to the testes or ovaries.
The cost of decontamination of areas affected by the plutonium could be, according to the NASA statement, $267 million for each square mile of farmland, $478 million for each square mile of forests and $1.5 billion for each square mile of “mixed-use urban areas.”
The NASA document lists “secondary social costs associated with the decontamination and mitigation activities” as: “Temporary or longer term relocation of residents; temporary or longer term loss of employment; destruction or quarantine of agricultural products including citrus crops; land use restrictions which could affect real estate values, tourism and recreational activities; restriction or bands on commercial fishing; and public health effects and medical care.”
As to why the use of a plutonium-powered rover on Mars -- considering that NASA has successfully used solar-powered rovers on Mars -- the NASA Environmental Impact Statement says that a “solar-powered rover…would not be capable of operating over the full range of scientifically desirable landing site latitudes” on this mission.
There’s more to it. For many decades there has been a marriage of nuclear power and space at NASA. The use of nuclear power on space missions has been heavily promoted by the U.S. Department of Energy and its predecessor agency, the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, and the many DOE (previously AEC) national laboratories including Los Alamos and Oak Ridge. This provides work for these government entities. Also, the manufacturers of nuclear-powered space devicesGeneral Electric was a pioneers in thishave pushed their products. Further, NAS has sought to coordinate its activities with the U.S. military. The military for decades has planned for the deployment of nuclear-powered weapons in space.
Personifying the NASA-military connection now is NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, a former NASA astronaut and Marine Corps major general. Appointed by President Barack Obama, he is a booster of radioisotope thermoelectric generators as well as rockets using nuclear power for propulsion. The U.S. has spent billions of dollars through the years on such rockets but none have ever taken off and the programs have all ended up cancelled largely out of concern about a nuclear-powered rocket blowing up on launch or falling back to Earth.
Accidents have happened in the U.S. space nuclear program. Of the 26 space missions that have used plutonium which are listed in the NASA Environmental Impact Statement for the Mars Science Laboratory Mission, three underwent accident causing, admits the document.
The worst occurred in 1964 and involved, it notes, the SNAP-9A plutonium system aboard a satellite that failed to achieve orbit and dropped to Earth, disintegrating as it fell. The 2.1 pounds of plutonium fuel dispersed widely over the Earth and Dr. John Gofman, professor of medical physics at the University of California at Berkeley, long linked this accident to an increase in global lung cancer. With the SNAP-9A accident, NASA switched to solar energy on satellites. Now all satellitesand the International Space Stationare solar-powered.
There was a near-miss involving a nuclear disaster and a space shuttle. The ill-fated Challenger’s next mission in 1986 was to loft a plutonium-powered space probe.
The NASA Environmental Impact Statement includes comments from people and organizations some highly critical of a plutonium-powered Mars Science Laboratory Mission.
Leah Karpen of Asheville, North Carolina says: “Every expansion of plutonium research, development and transportation of this deadly material increases the risk of nuclear accident or theft. In addition, plutonium production is expensive and diverts resources from the more important social needs of our society today, and in the future.” She urges NASA “to reconsider the use of nuclear” and go with solar instead.
Jeremy Maxand, executive director of the Idaho-based Snake River Alliance, calls on NASA and the Department of Energy to “take this opportunity to move space exploration in a sustainable direction with regard to power. Using solar rather than nuclear to power the Mars Science Laboratory Mission would keep the U.S. safe, advance energy technologies that are cleaner and more secure, be more fiscally responsible, and set a responsible example to other countries as they make decisions about their energy future.”
Ace Hoffman of Carlsbad, California speaks of “today’s nuclear NASA” and a “closed society of dangerous, closed-minded ‘scientists’ who are hoodwinking the American public and who are guilty of premeditated random murder.” He adds: “The media has a duty to learn the truth rather than parrot NASA’s blanketly-false assertions.”
NASA, in response to the criticisms, repeatedly states in the document: “NASA and the DOE take very seriously the possibility that an action they take could potentially result in harm to humans or the environment. Therefore, both agencies maintain vigorous processes to reduce the potential for such events.”
Involved in challenging the mission is the Global Network Against Weapons & Nuclear Power in Space (www.space4peace.org). Bruce Gagnon, coordinator of the Maine-based organization, says that “NASA sadly appears committed to maintaining their dangerous alliance with the nuclear industry. Both entities view space as a new market for the deadly plutonium fuel.” Says Gagnon: “The taxpayers are being asked once again to pay for nuclear missions that could endanger the life of all the people on the planet…Have we not learned anything from Chernobyl and Fukushima? We don’t need to be launching nukes into space. It’s not a gamble we can afford to take.”
With the return of Atlantis and end of the shuttle program, there are concerns about this being the “end” of the U.S. space program.
An accident if NASA continues to insist on mixing atomic energy and space - a nuclear disaster above our heads - that, indeed, could end the space program..


44 Comments so far
Show AllToday a very symbolic milestone was passed on Amerika's decline. We can no longer launch a man into space. Now I'm not saying manned spaceflight is a good or bad thing, but it is a VERY prestigious thing for a country. It's a symbol that a country has arrived on the world stage, or in our case starting to depart it.
So now we have to hitch a ride with the Russian's if want to "slip the surly bonds of earth.. and touch the face of god" in low Earth orbit. "Hey Sergie you goin' to the Space station this month? Mind if we hitch a ride?" will now be NASAs manned space flight program.
But the money that will no longer be used to shoot people into space can now be diverted to killing them on the Earth, and put into Bankster's pockets. Empires have their priorities you know. We are done with Empirical exploration, and now spend all our resources on Empirical exploitation.
"We will bury you!"
-- Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev, November 18, 1956
Good one.
In what way?
If you want the OP's comment explained, rather than asking me "What are you agreeing with?", wouldn't it be more efficient to, maybe, ask him/her "What do you mean?" But I get your point. This phenomenon is of course not unique to capitalism.
"Meet the new boss, same as the old boss."
-- Pete Townsend
NC-Tom,
I understand your point about a public manned space program enhancing national prestige. However, considering that those in charge of the corporatocracy no longer see the world in nationalistic terms, I think they are unconcerned for national pride enhancing mechanisms UNLESS they involve war fever.
More over, the death bed statement of Ben Rich, Lockheed Skunk Works director, implies that "we" do have a manned space program.
---------------------------------------------------------------
What he said might be new to many people today, but he revealed the information before his death in January 1995. His statements helped to give credence to reports that the U.S. military has been flying vehicles that mimic alien craft.
The article was written by Tom Keller, an aerospace engineer who has worked as a computer systems analyst for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
1 : “Inside the Skunk Works (Lockheed’s secret research and development entity), we were a small, intensely cohesive group consisting of about fifty veteran engineers and designers and a hundred or so expert machinists and shop workers. Our forte was building technologically advanced airplanes of small number and of high class for highly secret missions.”
2 : “We already have the means to travel among the stars, but these technologies are locked up in black projects, and it would take an act of God to ever get them out to benefit humanity. Anything you can imagine, we already know how to do.”
Full article here:
http://www.ufo-blogger.com/2010/08/ufo-are-real-ben-rich-lockheed-skunk.html
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It's just not public. Apparantly we were able to reverse engineer some of the crashed ET scout ships. We can probably go to the moon but we haven't been able to build the mother ships needed for interplanetary/interstellar travel.
Oh. and by the way, the US government, way back in 1956, prepared a CYA documentary on UFOs. Watch this video with all the Government admissions you never read in the papers.
http://www.ufo-blogger.com/2011/06/us-air-force-had-monitored-true-story.html
I guess they thought they were going to have to admit that ET was visiting us eventually so they wanted to show us they were just trying to deal with the whole thing in a "no nonsense" manner.
As for the plutonium powered rover, it's par for the course for hubris filled assholes that consider the one in 220 chance of giving lung cancer to millions of people that live in a broad swath of the world to be an "acceptable" risk.
The obvious question arises that IF we have anti-gravity craft reverse engineered from ET crashed scout craft, WTF are we doing messing around with chemical rocketry to put a plutonium rover on mars? NASA would say because there are no UFOs! How convenient to have an ongoing space program using rocketry if you want to deny you have anti-gravity technology.
Possible REAL answers:
1) The anti-grav scout ship units have severe payload limitations.
2) The Plutonium rover is a lie used as a cover story for weaponizing space.
3) The nuclear industry needs some prestige building event to counter Fukushima.
4) All the above.
When you've been hiding this shit for 50 plus years, it's somewhat difficult to come out with a neat looking flying disk and admitting that, yeah, we lied so we could keep the oil (for energy) economy going and ensure that nuclear reactors were built (for bomb material) while we were sitting on this cheap ,CO2 free and radionuclide free energy source.
We did it for your own good. We didn't figure Americans could stomach being technologically inferior to a race of ETs. You people might panic thinking the ETs would treat us the way we treated the Native Americans. Yeah, we robbed you blind but it was really, really for your own good.And don't worry about the ETs. They aren't capitalists. They are so "dumb" they gave this technology to us. What a deal!...
People wouldn't like that.
But if you feel that NASA is leveling with you, believe what they say and laugh at any possibility that the US MIC (NASA is an integral part of it) would lie to you about anything, anytime for "national security".
Was not Carl Sagan a big proponent of atomic power in space? Did he not die of a radiation induced leukemia?
We dream of the stars but I think they are a little too far away.
Carl Sagan was a big proponent of exploring the Cosmos for the betterment of humanity. He was also thoroughly progressive in his social and political thinking. That's a great combination.
Not really an answer to my questions. But I will answer, he was a big rep for nukes in space and it seems likely he died from radiation.
Don't get me wrong I love the man, one of the great atheists of our age.
He was a great humanist.
Point number 1: It would be nice if NASA would release a document explaining how the 1 in 220 figure they get for an accident occurring was obtained. After the Challenger disaster, Richard Feynman talked to NASA people about how they estimated the chances of a disaster, and said they did not know what they were doing. Has anything changed since then?
Point number 2: Does anyone on the congressional committees which oversee NASA know about this estimate? If no, why not? If they do, why hasn't it been publicized?
For the same reason that real-world capable, self-powered solar car is not practical, as Mars rovers get bigger and faster, (the existing solar-powered rovers move only a little faster than the minute-hand a clock) powering them by solar likewise will be impractical.
The RTG is in a very rugged, heat-shielded container that is very unlikely to break open or burn up in the event of a lunch accident. For example, after the Apollo 13 fuel cell explosion the astronauts had to use the lunar module life support systems to get back to earth. This necessitated that the lunar module, which was carrying an RTG for instrumentation to be left behind on the moon, be allowed to re-enter and burn up while travaling almost 25,000 miles per hour. The RTG survived intact and is now resting on the seabed in the Tonga trench, and test show that it's graphite, irridium and ceramic container will last 10 half-lives. No plutonium has ever been detected in the sea or atmosphere from this event.
The old US and Russian RTG's that did release plutonium are designs that are no longer used.
The report that NASA prepared represents an absolutly worst case - just like the maps that show the inundation of whole cities that every dam keeps on file.
The authors comparison of the odds of a plutonium release to risks that cause near-certain instant death like airliner crashes is just silly. The radon and its daughter products (including hyper-toxic Po210) in many people's basements is already presenting a far greater risk than that would occur to a random person from a plutonium release from an RTG.
People, Karl Grossman, and that other guy from Ohio are lawyers, they have no scientific or engineering/technical training of any sort. The very job of a lawyer is to obfuscate and confuse.
The report that NASA prepared represents an absolutly worst case - just like the maps that show the inundation of whole cities that every dam keeps on file.
For the same reason that real-world capable, self-powered solar car is not practical, as Mars rovers get bigger and faster, (the existing solar-powered rovers move only a little faster than the minute-hand a clock) powering them by solar likewise will be impractical.
Nuclear energy provides enormous amounts of power in incredibly compact form. For exmple, an RTG the size of a car battery and weighing a couple pounds using Polonium 210 could power an electric car continuously for a couple years. Polonium 210 is an incredibly toxic, hyper-intense alpha emitter - much worse than Plutonium, so such an application would never be considered for safety reasons, but it shows what incredible sources of carbon-free energy nuclear materials can be.
Thanks for injecting some much-needed perspective into this topic. As you make clear, solar power is simply not practical for the Curiosity Mars rover. And today's technology to guard against serious contamination is vastly improved over what was used 50 years ago.
The same fuss was made in 1997 prior to the launch of the Cassini Saturn probe. That mission went on to teach us an extraordinary amount of new insights regarding the ringed planet and its many moons. The risk was well worth it, and I'm sure the same will be true with the upcoming Mars mission. Again, sometimes nuclear is the only good option for solar system exploration.
Some will still argue that a 1-in-220 chance is still too high. For comparison, I read recently that on any given car trip, your chance of a fatal accident is 1-in-100, more than twice as high as a plutonium-spreading rocket accident. So, logically, progressives shouldn't be promoting electric cars, which will carry essentially the same accident risk as gasoline-powered cars.
HB,
I am not sure that learning ANYTHING about Saturn and its moons is worth a 1/220ths chance of spreading (more) plutonium throughout the atmoshere. I don't want to come across as a reflexively anti-"pure science" (i.e., if knowledge isn't of immediate benefit, it is worthless) but at some point we need to figure out the highest price we are willing to pay for "discovery."
Also, a LOT of progressive voices aren't promoting electric cars, which don't solve many of the structural problems associated with making automobiles the central means of transportation.
Did you choose to get in that car? Most people on Earth are voicing opposition to "getting" in the car. It is amusing that in your attempt to provoke people you extoll logic, yet you are incapable of legitimate discussion, you are unethical, and do not understand the definition of logic.
Hard to believe no one has pointed out the utter ridiculousness of your assertion:
"...on any given car trip, your chance of a fatal accident is 1-in-100..."
Are you trying to make the pro-nuke trolls look utterly ridiculous?
Everything you mention makes sense. But I still would like to know how the worst-case estimate was obtained. Maybe they have learned something since Challenger, and maybe they haven't.
By the way, who cares how long it takes a Rover to travel from one spot to another? Are they planning to have races on Mars? The solar devices are simpler, and we know they work. Why insist on a bigger power source, just because they exist?
You infer that the RTG on the seabed of the Tonga trench was and is actively monitored, you are full of shit. And by the way "Lawyers" may have scientific training, engineering backgrounds, and Karl Grossman is a journalist. Just because your job is to obfuscate and confuse, does not mean everyone is unethical like you.
"An accident if NASA continues to insist on mixing atomic energy and space - a nuclear disaster above our heads - that, indeed, could end the space program."
FALSE! If nuclear disasters haven't stopped the nuclear industry on lthe planet's surface, there is absolutely no reason to think that inevitable nuclear disaster(s) in space "could end the space program/"
The privatized profit-driven nuclear industry, like all other toxic energy industries, basically doesn't give a damn about inevitable nuclear disasters. The only concern is to maximize their profit.
The entire toxic energy industry (oil, coal, gas, nuclear, etc.) must be permanently nationalized (socialized) to transition these industries towards using safe, renewable, NON-TOXIC TECHNOLOGIES.
Instead of allowing the rape of the natural resources of the planet for the profit of corporations and wealth accumulation of the super-rich, the natural resources must be safely used to the economic benefit of all people. The profits should be used to fund the transition to non-toxic energy technologies.
THE EFFECTS OF ENDING CAPITALIST EXPOITATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES WOULD BE IMMENSE!
* WARS in the Middle East could end as the motivation for oil profits wold end!
* GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE, ECOLOGICAL DESTRUCTION, in major part caused by fossil fuel pollution could be stabilized.
* THE WORLD ECONOMIC CRISES, INTRINSIC TO CAPITALISM, COULD BECOME MINIMIZED.
* The vast planet-wide destruction caused by the capitalist exploitation could begin to restore clean air, clean water, to end the destruction of land and humans.
Read: World Socialist Web Site http://www.wsws.org
Thanks Karl for promoting the Global Network!
Not only does the Global Network organize "against weapons and nuclear power in space" as their name says, but they also do incisive analysis of US global military planning and strategy. They have several excellent videos available on these matters.
Sign up for their e-mail bulletins, www.space4peace.org.
From the Wikipedia article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_Man) on the Nagasaki atomic bomb:
… The result was that in the Fat Man bomb, about 1 kilogram (2.2 lb) of the 6.2 kilograms (14 lb) of plutonium in the pit (about 17%) fissioned. In this process 1 gram (0.035 oz) of matter in the bomb was converted into the active energy of heat and radiation (see mass-energy equivalence for detail), releasing the energy equivalent of 21 kilotons of TNT or 88 terajoules.
So how come vaporizing over 10 pounds of plutonium over Nagasaki didn’t give all the bomb survivors lung cancer?
call me confused...
when discussing a potential global 1lb plutonium distribution, we discuss the enormous costs of the potential cleanup, down to the square mile...
yet, when discussing an actual 2+lb event that actually occured in 64, and was actually tied to an increase in cancers, we ignore cleanup altogether?
were millions and millions spent on cleanup following that event?
if not, why pretend such things would cost even a penny in the future?
Actually, it would not end up costing the government anything because they would invariably claim it "posed no hazard" (eg: "because it all fell into the ocean" ) and they would therefore never pay a single dime for "cleanup" -- to say nothing of damages to those whose health was affected (because they would deny that anyone was affected)
If the rocket blew up on launch, how would one even begin to "clean up" gazillions of particles that are so small you would need a microscope to see them? It's absurd to suggest that it is even possible, to say nothing of put a price on it.
Incidentally, if 10 pounds of plutonium somehow ended up being "dispersed" (vaporized) over a major metropolitan area, it would almost certainly require the evacuation of the entire city and possibly make it uninhabitable for TENS of THOUSANDS of years (the half life of plutonium is 24,000 years.
It's a terrorist's wet dream (at no risk and no expense to themselves).
Sometimes when I read the truly idiotic things that we do to ourselves (just because we can -- and because some company gets paid for it), I don't know whether to laugh or cry -- or just scream at the TV.
Why isn’t Nagasaki uninhabitable?
Plutonium that fissions in a bomb is a very different animal than plutonium that is simply "dispersed" over a relatively small area.
first, the bomb plutonium immediately fissions into other stuff, some of which has a relatively short half life (decays away quickly)
Second, much of the "fallout" from Nagasaki was actually carried aloft by the fireball and hence was NOT deposited on Nagasaki itself (instead, it was carried into the upper atmosphere and dispersed over a very large area -- ie thereby diluted).
Third, "uninhabitable" (or inhabitable) means dfferent things to different people. Personally, I would not inhabit the area around Chernobyl, for example, but some people do -- and you are welcome to do so yourself. :)
Uninhabitable does not necessarily mean you will die immediately if you try to live there. But you may die from the effects eventually.
See, for example
http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/2466/if-nuclear-fallout-lasts-thousands-of-years-how-did-hiroshima-and-nagasaki-recover-so-quickly
From the Wikipedia article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_Man) on the Nagasaki atomic bomb:
… The result was that in the Fat Man bomb, about 1 kilogram (2.2 lb) of the 6.2 kilograms (14 lb) of plutonium in the pit (about 17%) fissioned. In this process 1 gram (0.035 oz) of matter in the bomb was converted into the active energy of heat and radiation (see mass-energy equivalence for detail), releasing the energy equivalent of 21 kilotons of TNT or 88 terajoules.
Over 10 pounds of the Nagasaki bomb did NOT fission. How is plutonium being dispersed by a blast different from it be dispersed by a crashing spacecraft?
read what i wrote again (or, more lfor the first time)
Second, much of the "fallout" from Nagasaki was actually carried aloft by the fireball and hence was NOT deposited on Nagasaki itself (instead, it was carried into the upper atmosphere and dispersed over a very large area -- ie thereby diluted).
The fireball from a nuclear explosion creates a HUGE updraft that lofts the fallout into the upper atmosphere.
If the rocket carrying the plutonium exploded, the material would simply be scattered (not lofted away) by the relatively small explosion.
I did read your post. You seemed unaware that most of the plutonium in the Nagasaki bomb did not fission (“the bomb plutonium immediately fissions into other stuff”). This article talks about plutonium being dispersed over a wide area:
“But “since some of the accidents result in the release of very fine particles less than a micron in diameter, a portion of such releases could be transported beyond…62 miles,” it goes on. These particles could become “well-mixed in the troposphere” -- the atmosphere five to nine miles high -- “and have been assumed to potentially affect persons living within a latitude band from approximately 23-degrees north to 30-degrees north.” That’s a swath through the Caribbean, across North Africa and the Mideast, then India and China Hawaii and other Pacific islands, and Mexico and southern Texas.”
So my question is how would this be different from Nagasaki in its effect?
You seem unaware that there is a difference between a conventional chemical rocket exploding and a nuclear fireball.
Not much that I can do to help you.
My question was why would plutonium being widely scattered by an A-bomb blast be any different than it being scattered by a rocket mishap? The article suggests that the rocket would scatter it globally. You suggest the A-bomb did likewise … what’s the difference?
Your "question" neglects to understand that plutonium is dangerous, was found all around Nagasaki, and killed many people. You pretend to ask a question when in fact you obviously do not seek understanding, but are paid to provoke people whom are sharing legitimate concerns. Examine your posts, only "17%' was fissioned (go back and examine your math as well) meaning the other percentage was released into the atmosphere, you are inferring the plutonium is not a "real risk" since it has happened before and you are OK. Sophomoric if you are sincere, feeble if you are cashing those checks.
Of course plutonium is dangerous. You’re missing my point. This article claims catastrophic consequences from a plutonium release. I’m pointing out that we’ve already done just that without the results the authors claim in the article.
By the way, not everyone that disagrees with you is a troll
The same reason the Fukashima plants are not uninhabitable.
By the way, the original "mars rovers" did quite well running on solar power (one continued to send data for over 6 years).
Given that there is a very effective benign alternative, you have to ask yourself "why would they even take the chance?" (particularly if the chance is actually 1/220, which is very high when it comes to high risk ventures)
Someone almost certainly stands to make a lot of money on this project.
And you can bet that some member (or former member) of Congress is greasing the rover wheels.
JIMBO: Thank you for your post. Several persons in this thread are taking the line, either by pretending to ask questions, or otherwise answering them, that the government or NASA can be trusted on this. They are asking us to put aside the odds of a bad, lethal mistake...
This is the SAME reasoning that likewise said there was nothing to worry about at Fukushima, or with deep sea oil drilling, or with coal blasts/mountain top removal, or with fracking, or with certain levels of toxins in our drinking water, or with genetically altered foodstuffs, etc. ad nauseum.
The reality is that cancer, Diabetes, obesity, and depression rates are rising to epidemic levels. Yet because there are so MANY toxic competitors for the title of "who dunnit," no chain of proof can be firmly established. This creates a climate where more and more trespasses can continue.
IF we didn't have abundant evidence of so many serious accidents that have already dangerously compromised numerous significant (and inter-locking) ecosystems, we might be able to argue on the side of taking the risks.
The fires that nearly blew up Los Alamos were another wake-up call. How much hubris will be allowed to drive humanity to the edge of extinction, just so a few can make a killing in profits, and/or hire PR firms to massage away the public's justifiable worry or doubt as to the safety of these highly engineered products... the products that belong under the earth, in Hades, where they were stolen from.
Who will be the last irradiated person with no need to turn out the lights?
It's interesting that the forum's foremost denier that 911 was other than how the official narrative reads is the one arguing FOR this program. And a "new name" side kick just happens to show up to validate his post and thank him for the "science" behind him.
You boys really need a new script. However, just in case I'm the only one who sees through you... I make sure to let others know.
You seem to believe that I trust NASA. Nothing could be further from the truth. The point I’m trying to make is that plutonium has been scattered globally since the start of the atomic age (how many above ground nuclear tests have there been?). While the risk from the rocket is not zero, my GUESS is that it would be an insignificant addition to what we’ve already done. The tone of the article is rather hysterical in my opinion, just trying to put some perspective on it.
Your perspective is myopic, and razor thin. Would you become hysterical and buy lottery tickets if the odds are 1-in -220? Perhaps you could be succinct in expressing your opinion, look inside and see if you have one of your own.
Is there a petition we can sign?
On May 11, 1969, a huge plutonium fire burned for many hours at the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons plant located 16 miles west of Denver, thus upwind in one of the windiest locations in Colorado. It was a near miss as outside scientists later assessed the data. Or as the Pentagon's General Giller said to a congressional investigating committee a year later when asked what would have happened had the fire not been finally brought under control after burning for 18 hours, "Hundreds of square miles could be involved in radiation exposure and involve cleanup at an astronomical cost as well as creating a very intense reaction by the general public exposed to this." No BS translation: The Denver area would have to be abandoned as uninhabitable for thousands of years, essentially for the rest of human history.
This was the worst of numerous plutonium fires at Rocky Flats over the years. Lesson: never, ever trust human beings doing anything involving super deadly plutonium. Consider the thinking or lack thereof involved in even siting a plant involved in processing and milling plutonium directly upwind from a huge city. In fact the ruling elites of the old Atomic Energy Commission violated numerous of their own siting criteria in placing the plant at Rocky Flats, as they knew full well how deadly the stuff is for thousands of years. Nonetheless they went ahead and constructed and operated it there for more than 40 years. Denver should have an annual celebration on May 12 each year to mark and celebrate the fact that it escaped a history ending contamination event in 1969. So why should the glib reassurances now of the NASA people be given any more respect and credibility than those given about the Rocky Flats facility over the years. Maybe the atomic establishment still regards much of the population in the same way that it did the hapless "downwinders" who lived near the Nevada atomic bomb tests of the 1950s to 1980s as a "low use segment of the population".
As to the question of Plutonium dispersal after Nagasaki, it may well have happened. Though the nuclear scientists knew about such things, who else did? We could well have had accelerated cancers, etc., and not tied it into Nagasaki, or Hiroshima. Cause of death? When a doctor isn't even aware of the exposure?
Heart failure, old age, stomach ulcer, cirrhosis, colon cancer, prostate cancer, etc. We've had enough cancers in our history to have them accepted without bringing up the more recent horrors. It is only recently that we have become aware of and more sensitive to radiation accidents. The nuclear industry doesn't worry about health hazards because it is so difficult to prove that your terminal cancer is due to exposure ten or twenty years ago. They would probably argue that death due to exposure a few months ago is just coincidence.
The main thing to remember is that all of this stuff is basically to make billionaires richer and save some jobs at our bomb research plants. The health of the world means nothing from that perspective.
Welcome to the Corporate State!
How dare they? And the public, its potential victims, will pay for it?
This does not smell good.
See:
Dark Mission: The Secret History of NASA, Enlarged and Revised Edition by Richard C. Hoagland and Mike Bara (Sep 1, 2009)
An educated guess would suggest that there is more going on here than meets the eye.
...Exopolitics-wise that is.
"The Truth Is Out There."
We're just too stupid and self-involved to recognize it.
Decades ago, Dr. Edward Martell, of the NOaa in Colorado (who was familiar with John Gofmann), observed that smoking tobacco did not cause cancer until the atmospheric nuclear tests left radionuclides on the sticky leaves of the plant. Alpha radiation in the lung then became the primary source of lung cancer.
For many years, when I was a kid growing up living, literally, on Main
Street, in a small midwestern college town, up the street, off a side street, was a very small uranium milling facility I did not know existed until many years later. It contracted to a massive nuclear plant NW of Cincinnati that along the highway had a huge checkerboard-square sign out front that led most local people to believe it was a Ralston-Purina pet food plant. Both the small local milling plant and the massive plant contaminated the area.
Somehow, Jack Nicholson seems relevant here. In his first major film, "Easy Rider," he is clubbed to death while in a sleeping bag (and Peter Fonda is blown away on his motorcycle by shotgun-wielding rednecks in a pickup). Later, Nicholson shows up in a high-tension military film in which he says, paraphrase, "You want the Truth? You can't take the Truth." Then there is the real classic, "Missouri Breaks," in which he says to Marlon Brando at the end of the movie, paraphrase, "The reason you just woke up is that I just slit yore throat." Brando gurgles some semi-liquid from his mouth, his eyes doing strange: he makes no attempt to utter. They do not show the throat. He had it coming. Almost a Mercy Killing. (An aside: throat slitting does not affect the spine directly. It is the trauma, not the effect, that prevents retaliation. In theory, I could be spurting blood from my neck and still have a chance to kill you...)
Over the decades, Science has learned again and again that nuclear radiation is far more dangerous than earlier scientists understood. These bastards, knowing the dangers, killed my father, nearly killed my mother, killed my younger sister, killed my grandmother and my aunt on the paternal side, and I do not know of a single family resident on Main Street who has not suffered a cancer death.
There will be no epidemiologic studies here. As another poster observed here, too many variables to DO Science! The lawyers would take over and the costs would be too great. So it goes, since at least WWII.
*****
As for the existence of ET, for humans to believe that in the vastness others are not more intelligent would be a Conceit. Frankly, we would be far better off trying to comprehend the plants and fungi around us than expending billions visiting outer space, about which we can do nothing. We don't have to seek Extra Terrestrial Intelligence. It will come to us, if we are regarded as deserving of it.
Radiation may be invisible to the human senses, and it may have taken around a century to understand it. Its use in human history is mostly Entropic: destructive of what Henry Adams, in "The Degradation of the Democratic Dogma" (circa 1910) called the "Life Force." (He was aware of Einstein's theories...)
We have had MANY nuclear disasters "overhead."
As an old doctor of mine used to recite, as a joke, "the solution to pollution is dilution." Would that this were so, but it ain't. (In pollution chemistry, perhaps at some level this makes sense, but not with radiation, the effects of which are utterly cumulative.)
We don't need a space program. Our science has garnered enough raw data to keep researchers busy for decades to come. And we still have the telescopes...
-30-
THE SKY IS FALLING!
This article is a masterful work of Chicken-Littleism, quite worthy of a journalism professor. Mr. Grossman scares his readers by subtly implying that the upper-atmosphere disintegration of a spacecraft containing 10.6 pounds of plutonium might cause widespread human fatalities. He does this by writing:
"Dr. Helen Caldicott, president emeritus of Physicians for Social Responsibility, has long emphasized that a pound of plutonium if uniformly distributed could hypothetically give a fatal dose of lung cancer to every person on Earth. A pound, even 10.6 pounds, could never be that uniformly distributed, of course. But an accident in which plutonium is released by a space device as tiny particles falling to Earth maximizes its lethality. A millionth of a gram of plutonium can be a fatal dose."
I will leave aside any analysis of the questionable veracity of Dr. Caldicott's claim, or of the well-known untrustworthiness of statements from scientists promoting their own political beliefs. I will only mention in passing that Mr. Grossman's claim that plutonium (or any other poison, for that matter) is more lethal in diluted rather than concentrated form is obviously the exact opposite of the truth. The most important thing that I wish to point out is that any alert reader of this article will notice a logical problem with Mr. Grossman's scare story nine paragraphs farther into the article. There, in case some of his readers may believe that such an accident would kill millions (or billions), but still doubt that the event is very likely to occur, Mr. Grossman reveals that a NASA report has documented that such accidents already have occurred:
"The worst occurred in 1964 and involved, [the report] notes, the SNAP-9A plutonium system aboard a satellite that failed to achieve orbit and dropped to Earth, disintegrating as it fell. The 2.1 pounds of plutonium fuel dispersed widely over the Earth and Dr. John Gofman, professor of medical physics at the University of California at Berkeley, long linked this accident to an increase in global lung cancer."
So, 2.1 pounds of plutonium already has been dispersed widely over the Earth, nearly a half century ago, and the worst that Mr. Grossman can say about the result of this is that one university professor has claimed to have linked the accident to an increase (amount unspecified) in global lung cancer. This revelation rather deflates the big scare story, but a master journalist knows that many (if not most) readers won't make that connection, especially if it appears much later in his article.
As a critic, I was amused by Mr. Grossman's choice of experts to quote on the subject of policy recommendations in the face of this great threat, especially Leah Karpen and Ace Hoffman, whose qualifications to comment on this matter appear to consist of being residents of Asheville, North Carolina and Carlsbad, California, respectively. Nice (common) touch.
To any reader who did not recognize this article as deceptive political propaganda, I recommend the following action: get a subscription to Duh! Magazine and read it regularly. That publication contains many articles (with pictures!) which are very helpful for people like you, such as the classic "Knives: Which End To Hold, And Why." If you lack the mental ability to master the process of acquiring a subscription, go to your local newsstand once a month. Just say "duh" to the man behind the counter. He will know what you need.