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Alan Greenspan: Feted for Failure
Alan Greenspan was at the wheel, apparently asleep, when the US economy drove off a cliff. Why on earth is he still lionised?
The Brookings Institution stands alongside Harvard, Yale, and Princeton, among the nation's elite intellectual institutions. This is why it so striking that it chose to invite former Federal Reserve board chairman Alan Greenspan to give the keynote address at a forum on reforming the home mortgage finance system last week.
It would be difficult to imagine a more disastrous failure than Alan Greenspan. Tens of millions of people are unemployed, under-employed, or have given up looking for work altogether, as a direct result of Greenspan's ineptitude. Millions of families are facing the lost of their homes. More than one quarter of mortgage holders are underwater with their mortgages.
The huge baby boom cohorts saw most of their life's savings disappear when the collapse of the bubble destroyed their home equity. They are now approaching retirement with almost nothing to rely upon other than their social security.
This is the direct result of Alan Greenspan's incompetence as Fed chair. He either did not recognise the $8tn housing bubble or somehow did not think it was a big deal. This was a monumental misjudgment. The housing bubble was really hard to miss for anyone who can read a chart and knows arithmetic. For 100 years, nationwide house prices had just tracked the overall rate of inflation. Suddenly, in the mid 90s, coinciding with the stock bubble, house prices began to substantially outpace the overall rate of inflation.
By 2002, house prices had already risen by more than 30 percentage points in excess of the overall rate of inflation. At the peak of the bubble in 2006, the inflation in house prices had exceeded the overall rate of inflation by more than 70 percentage points, creating that $8tn bubble in housing wealth.
There was no remotely plausible explanation for this, based on the fundamentals of either the demand or supply side of the housing market. Population growth and household formation were much slower during the bubble years than in prior decades. Income growth had been healthy in the late 90s, but went in reverse in the 2000s. On the supply side, the country was building homes at near record rates, so supply constraints obviously could not explain the runup in prices.
Anyone looking for an explanation would also have to explain why rents were going nowhere. The fact that the vacancy rate had already hit a record high as early as 2002 should have been another really big bright warning sign that housing was in an unsustainable bubble. If it was impossible for competent economists to miss this assessment, it should also have been impossible for them to think it could deflate harmlessly. The bubbles in residential and non-residential construction led to enormous overbuilding in both sectors. The "wealth effect" associated with the $8tn transient housing bubble was generating close to $500bn in annual consumption.
This meant that the combined drop in construction and consumption demand from the collapse of the bubble was almost certain going to be in excess of $1tn. Did Greenspan think he had something in his bag of tricks as Federal Reserve board chairman that would allow him to quickly replace more than $1tn in annual demand?
Absent some new source of demand (which has not appeared), it was inevitable that the collapse of the bubble would lead to a prolonged period of high unemployment. This was all 100% predictable; but Greenspan did not predict it – because he was not doing his job.
Incredibly, in spite of this disastrous performance as Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan is still being feted in elite circles. Perhaps this is due to the fact that the people who sit in these elite circles openly celebrated Greenspan as he drove the economy off a cliff. He was declared the "Maestro" by one of the country's top reporters. At the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the leading lights of the economics profession debated whether he was the greatest central banker of all time, as he prepared to leave his post.
In other words, Greenspan may have ruined the lives of tens of millions of people and cost the lives of tens of thousands (yes, people die because of inept economic policy: they kill themselves, they don't get healthcare that they need, and they die from alcoholism and despair), but he does not bear the blame alone. Most of the people who hold top positions in policy and academic circles share blame for disaster – refusing to do the simple analysis that would have allowed them to see this disaster coming.
The pain and suffering caused by Alan Greenspan's incompetence vastly exceeds the harm that our worst enemies could even dream of inflicting on the United States. Yet, apparently, he can always count on a position of honour at the Brookings Institution. Heckuva job, Alan!
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23 Comments so far
Show AllDear Mr. Baker, truth means nothing to those who own the media. Heck, they intend to put Ronald Reagan's ugly mug at Mt. Rushmore, and even an intellectual baboon like Bush-the-Lesser receives an honorable book tour! Hate-mongers get unlimited air time, while progressive thinkers are kept away from just about every media microphone.
Greenspan delivered the goods to his elite sponsors hence his hour of homage. It's as simple as that! These grotesque individuals have endeavored to divide up the world like gods from Olympus; and they're too pampered by privilege to hear (or respond to) the cries of the millions whose lives have fallen into despair.
Of all the sins of recent decades, and there have been many, the two that stand out most (in my vision) are:
1. The uptick in militarism, and what it's stolen in the way of life, liberty, and living ecosystems from countless millions.
And...
2. The media giveaway: Allowing the pre-existing broadcast companies to gain use of the digital bandwidth without demanding that a portion of air time be devoted to genuine public service constitutes a heist of monumental proportions. The next step down the slippery slope of deregulation has enabled just a few powerful corporations to control content and thereby manufacture the public's consent.
No people can be free when they are kept in the dark about the state of their nation, and/or what its "leaders" are conducting in their names. Obstruction, obscurity, and expensive deceits pass for discourse in this land of the hardly free or brave. America is the seat of global deception, and its people, enslaved by what they neither know nor understand. Increasingly.
You got that right Siouxrose. What a load of mealymouthed garbage by Baker. Greenespanny knew exactly what he was wreaking!
I'm going to be a little unfair to Dean Baker, one of our very few honest economists, and point out the full implications of his own case:
"The housing bubble was really hard to miss for anyone who can read a chart and knows arithmetic." Point taken. But Greenspan was not the only economist to "overlook" (meaning deny) the bubble: essentially ALL of them did. The exceptions, including Baker, can be counted on one hand.
This means that the entire profession has been discredited. Economists, as a category, are either incompetent or dishonest, or, of course, both. They should all be fired and replaced, using the competent/honest very few as seed stock. Ready to volunteer for the job of remaking your profession, Mr. Baker? I sure hope so.
P.S.: Actually, I wouldn't base a new economics on liberals like Baker, who believe we need to "grow" the economy, but on environmental economists like Herman Daley and the Center for a Steady-State Economy, http://steadystate.org/.
We keep blowing bubbles because we've hit a resource wall and the real economy can't really grow anymore, so it pretends. The needed changes are deeper than even Baker usually admits.
Alan Greedspan.
Incompetent is now the repacement word for criminal.
With all due respects to Mr. Baker, unless he's intending this to be parody, I have to completely disagree with the entire premise of the article. As far as I can tell he has 2 main points. The first that Alan Greenspan either failed to see the housing bubble or that if he did see it, that he could contain it. The second, that after the housing market collapse which has brought the working people so much pain that the Brookings Institute shouldn't have invited Alan Greenspan to give the keynote address because, well they're among the most elite of our intellectual institutions.
Everything we've learned point that neither of these two premises are true. As I and many, many others here on CD have pointed out, a child could have seen this housing collapse a mile away. When housing prices became 15 to 20 times the annual salary of a typical retail or service worker (the majority of the population now) how anyone saw this as doable is beyond the pale.
No, these people saw this a mile away. They just didn't have any plan because to put the brakes on the housing boom - and the financial industry that fueled it - would have made the great collapse happen right at the beginning of George Bush Jr's first term in office and would have overshadowed everything else these bunch of criminals were trying to get done. That and the sad truth is that these are the same people who have personally profited so handsomely off of the dire misfortune of the working class - including the housing collapse. Remember the justification for TARP and all the other b.s. that Congress, The White House, and the Fed have thrown at these criminals.
The real story with Alan Greenspan and all the rest of these people is that they have spent the past 30 years or more purposely impoverishing the working class in order for the idle investor class to become even more filthy rich.
KrazyKatz as always you talk sense. Thanks
As many posters astutely note, there is something askance in Baker's premises and chain of reasoning.
He argues that Greenspan is singularly responsible for the housing bubble but then attributes it all to incompetence, a failure to do the basic math. Is this plausible?
Modern economics, despite the highly sophisticated mathematics, is not a science. It's predictive power is dismal, even ludicrous.
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Mainstream economics serves an ideological mandate; it employs bizarre & simplistic assumptions about rational economic agents, transparent information, collective rationality, and self-correcting (magical) markets that are not based on any empirical evidence. In fact, evidence repeatedly contradicts the assumptions & yet the assumptions remain inviolate.
Why do the majority of economists subscribe to such notions?
It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.
Upton Sinclair
Mainstream economic ideologies benefit corporations, global economic elites, and neoliberal policies. The economists who masquerade as independent social scientists -- "just the facts, mam" as TV cop Jack Webb used to put it -- are promoted and lionized. Some of them, like Milton Freeman, receive the Nobel Price for their work as the sages of plutocracy.
Greenspan was an acolyte of Ayn Rand. His career has been built on making America safe for plutocrats. Every opportunity to divert wealth from the little people to the rich has been seized.
Greenspan has always shown fealty to Republican leaders, Wall Street, and right-wing economics.
For example, as conservative historian Kevin Phillips as shown in his book Bad Money (recommended), Greenspan succeeded (under Clinton) to promote the Boskin Commissions changes to the CPI. The changes understated inflation and were used to cut cost of living payments to social security recipients and pensioners. In other words, the CPI uses magical arithmetic to steal from the little people for the benefit of economic elites.
The CPI excludes fuel and food from its calculations, and it's real function now is to hide inflation and overstate economic growth.
http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/05/0082023
http://www.tampabay.com/news/article473596.ece
http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Kevin_Phillips/Interview_KevinPhillips.html
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/12/10/heres-why-the-cpi-is-broken.aspx
Another example of Greenspan's contributions to the wealthy was his wildly successful efforts to make social security taxes as regressive as possible.
(Baker knows all about this because he has written about it.)
http://hnn.us/articles/3642.html
Here's an excellent summary:
"1) President Reagan appointed Greenspan as chairman of the 1982 National Commission on Social Security Reform (aka The Greenspan Commission)
2) The Greenspan Commission recommended a major payroll tax hike to generate Social Security surpluses for the next 30 years, in order to build up a large reserve in the trust fund that could be drawn down during the years after Social Security began running deficits.
3) The 1983 Social Security amendments enacted hefty increases in the payroll tax in order to generate large future surpluses.
4) As soon as the first surpluses began to role in, in 1985, the money was put into the general revenue fund and spent on other government programs. None of the surplus was saved or invested in anything. The surplus Social Security revenue, that was paid by working Americans, was used to replace the lost revenue from Reagan’s big income tax cuts that went primarily to the rich."
http://dissidentvoice.org/2010/04/how-ronald-reagan-and-alan-greenspan-pulled-off-the-greatest-fraud-ever-perpetrated-against-the-american-people/
Greenspan is not an incompetent or a math illiterate. His role was never to make the economy benefit the largest number of people in the United States; rather his role has been to make sure the rich get richer.
Does Baker really believe that the job of the Fed Chairman is to keep full employment, living wages, and promote the well being of the general public?
Greenspan's entire career has followed one ironclad principle.
He is Robin Hood in reverse: he pilfers from the poor in order to succor the rich.
This is why he was praised as a genius while at the Fed, and why he is still feted by elites.
That's it exactly, KrazyKatz (and stringbean: Incompetent is now the replacement word for criminal").
The authors of most articles I find on popular websites (with some exceptions) maintain the illusion that elites (a.k.a. our masters) INTEND to do well by the majority of people and only fail owing to incompetence, unfortunate circumstances, they are foiled by a dastardly opposing party, or whatever. I don't know if they believe it or just adhere to the convention that some things must remain unspoken if one wants to keep a job.
However the articles are of interest to me because they correctly point out problems; the commentary after provides the proper framework when necessary.
By fascist standards, Greenspan was a great conservative success. Under his guidance, government made the rich richer and everyone else poorer
Worse that that, he sank the country. Sure as the ice sank Titanic! Congress may have fun re-arranging the deck chairs, but the fact is were going down!
As for Greedspan, if he was as stupid as his policies say, he would have trouble rememberingto breathe!
As a criminal who has caused pain and suffering, he's head and shoulders above Hitler!
>^^<
NO! We are not going down, we are DOWN!
The idea that what happened is somehow due to "incompetence" or "stupidity" is hilarious.
The only surprising thing in all of this is that someone like Dean Baker (who is otherwise very intelligent) still buys this poppycock.
It's like the claims that what happened in Iraq was due to "incompetence".
The fact is, Greenspan was WILDLY successful at what he and others had set out to do: dismantle the federal regulatory structure and redistribute wealth upward to those who "deserve" it (The Ayn Rand "movers and shakers").
Greenspan is still lionized because these are all his pals he is talking to. They are the ones who control the purse strings in this country and hence the ones who still call the shots.
No surprise that they have not been called to task because they've got their man in the White House (Obama) wrapped around their little finger.
Correct. It had nothing to do with "stupidity". The only stupid people are the ones that continue to advance this meme.
It was a very deliberate act intended to shift trillions of wealth upwards as The Government was taken completely over by the Coporations.
Indeed Dean Baker plays a very useful role here as far as the "Owner class" is concerned, He gives the perception that all of this could have been headed off via adequate oversight and that the system we call Capitalism is salvageable.
He STILL defends that system as do most economists. His role as "critic" is to help ensure Capitalism remains.
agree,
it was deliberate crisis fixing to exploit people's failure (and if not possible the corporate way, a war has to kick in lubricating the machinery back home)
it was and still is (unchanged) the drive to create poverty here and elsewhere
People need to recognize the Asian Miracle bailout and the Mexican bailout and the Dot-Com bubble and the Enron scandal and the S&L bailout to contextualize the Housing bubble or more generally the Real Estate bubble. All were historical precedents that should have created red flags even as deregulation of financial instruments continued not only unabated, but relentlessly. (One could make a case that Enron destroyed the economy of California...)
One can make a case that these disasters were as much the product of the Digital Revolution as of any true human volition. One can construct a parallel time-line, between the computer revolution and the ability to actually create extremely complex financial instruments such as credit default swaps. Such entities could not exist if they had to rely on the USPS or the teletype.
It would seem that we have a failure here of species. If we can create Complexity, we will, esp. if it is to our advantage to do so. Bloomberg became a billionaire by recognizing this. His early computerization of trading on the Internet was itself a small revolution.
The issue of regulation of financial transactions versus deregulation in the past two decades or so has a specific history, the details of which will take more decades to unravel. Progressives, especially, have a bone to pick here. One might ask, for example, how it came to pass that you could buy a house using a credit card?
During the Dot-Com bubble and later, my boss and I got into discussions like, "if only I had trusted my instinct that Apple and Steve Jobs would rebound from their slump, I would have made a fortune." Twice!
The question is, Who are the Economic Realists? In this context, note that Bernanke and Paulson under Bush the Lessor failed to intervene in what everybody knew was a Real Estate bubble, until it collapsed, and then they injected hundreds of billions to salvage the banks instead of the borrowers.
This process not only stole trillions from the American Middle Class, but it turned out to be global, because other countries with their interlocking banking systems had also created their own Real Estate bubbles, Spain being a good example.
No conspiracy is necessary here. It can easily become a matter of mere shared thinking, as each investment house competes to find another profitable trick. "Junk-bond collateralized semi-default short-sold default swaps." Got that?!
Meanwhile, all these skilled Real Estate contractors are out of work, many now on Food Stamps, while most of them thought they were riding high on into the future, and now they are broke.
The anger is palpable. The problem is that it is not properly directed. What does it mean to be an American in this context? Is Modern Economics a Decline to the Least Common Denominator that will somehow advance Capitalism?
Not likely.
Just blame it all on Bernie Madoff!
Robert Rubin needs to write a book entitled, "Buying Time."
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i think mr. bakers opinion is off, if not unfair.
he gave us his opinion and now here is mine:
from what i understand, and after listening to a remarkable interview - i think on 60 min, greenspans major mistake, and one he was remarkably candid about, was that like many republicans/reaganites, he falsely believed in the self-regulating god of beneficence within the industry. he being devout adherent to randian economic philosophy, this outlook is totally understandable. but in reality, what IS evident is the ever-growing movement of greed in this county and rand's political perspective did not take this into account. greenspan's misjudgment, though pretty fucking serious, was not the cause of the meltdown, but rather the machinery that evolved over time that could in no way embrace the concept of responsible stewardship. and as such, the republicans continued belief in this pipe dream of self regulation remains a huge threat to every american citizen. nevertheless, i do not think greenspan was incompetent or some dark maleficent conspirator. he was/is an 'old school' american attenuated to a different point in time that has passed and will never return - think: leave it to beaver or the andy griffith show!
enter the new world order. as in the song "god's away on business," tom waits sings.... "the ship is sinking.... who are the ones that we kept in charge... killers, thieves and lawyers."
as for mr bakers off center synopsis: heckuva job, dean.
Yeah. And how's that unemployment working for you?
is that the best you can do?
lame.
It is reckless to think Alan Greenspan and his cohorts did not see or predict the bubble and it's eventual collapse. A close friend and banker warned me of the collapse nearly 2 years in advance. What we failed to do was capitalize on the downturn by shorting stocks. To have had a better sense of timing would have aided us making a killing. Alan Greenspan did have that sense because he raised the short term lending rates in a stairstep pattern leading up to the collapse. Due to the timing of lending dereglation, bankers knew when ARMs began and would reset upward and lenders would fail to make payments. To think that no one could have known allows the same thing to happen again.
It's become very obvious that we have created a "Frakenstein" in globalization. This system has now become non-linear, therefore rendering economics as useless. Get the Santa Fe institute on the problem, before it all goes up in flames.
When the top economic gurus do not believe in fraud, on any level, it is almost impossible to see anything bad coming your way. Greenspan, Sommers and all of the rest need to go back to private life and stay there. Their handiwork is quite evident for all to see.
Rockerbabe1 writes:
"When the top economic gurus do not believe in fraud, on any level, it is almost impossible to see anything bad coming your way. Greenspan, Sommers and all of the rest need to go back to private life and stay there. Their handiwork is quite evident for all to see."
At first reading I saw this as gibberish. On second reading I noticed the clause, "When the top economic gurus do not believe in fraud,..."
We have a sociology of governance in which great crimes are committed and no one (except poor Bernie Madoff) is held to account. Fraud? Aw, give me a break, you didn't read the fine print? How's that mortgage going for ya?
Freud? What is the Nature of the Medium of Exchange?
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