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Egypt's Day of Reckoning
Mubarak regime may not survive new protests as flames of anger spread through Middle East
A day of prayer or a day of rage? All Egypt was waiting for the Muslim Sabbath today – not to mention Egypt's fearful allies – as the country's ageing President clings to power after nights of violence that have shaken America's faith in the stability of the Mubarak regime.
Five men have so far been killed and almost 1,000 others have been imprisoned, police have beaten women and for the first time an office of the ruling National Democratic Party was set on fire. Rumours are as dangerous as tear gas here. A Cairo daily has been claiming that one of President Hosni Mubarak's top advisers has fled to London with 97 suitcases of cash, but other reports speak of an enraged President shouting at senior police officers for not dealing more harshly with demonstrators.
Mohamed ElBaradei, the opposition leader and Nobel prize-winning former UN official, flew back to Egypt last night but no one believes – except perhaps the Americans – that he can become a focus for the protest movements that have sprung up across the country.
Already there have been signs that those tired of Mubarak's corrupt and undemocratic rule have been trying to persuade the ill-paid policemen patrolling Cairo to join them. "Brothers! Brothers! How much do they pay you?" one of the crowds began shouting at the cops in Cairo. But no one is negotiating – there is nothing to negotiate except the departure of Mubarak, and the Egyptian government says and does nothing, which is pretty much what it has been doing for the past three decades.
People talk of revolution but there is no one to replace Mubarak's men – he never appointed a vice-president – and one Egyptian journalist yesterday told me he had even found some friends who feel sorry for the isolated, lonely President. Mubarak is 82 and even hinted he would stand for president again – to the outrage of millions of Egyptians.
The barren, horrible truth, however, is that save for its brutal police force and its ominously docile army – which, by the way, does not look favourably upon Mubarak's son Gamal – the government is powerless. This is revolution by Twitter and revolution by Facebook, and technology long ago took away the dismal rules of censorship.
Mubarak's men seem to have lost all sense of initiative. Their party newspapers are filled with self-delusion, pushing the massive demonstrations to the foot of front pages as if this will keep the crowds from the streets – as if, indeed, by belittling the story, the demonstrations never happened.
But you don't need to read the papers to see what has gone wrong. The filth and the slums, the open sewers and the corruption of every government official, the bulging prisons, the laughable elections, the whole vast, sclerotic edifice of power has at last brought Egyptians on to their streets.
Amr Moussa, the head of the Arab League, spotted something important at the recent summit of Arab leaders at the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. "Tunisia is not far from us," he said. "The Arab men are broken." But are they? One old friend told me a frightening story about a poor Egyptian who said he had no interest in moving the corrupt leadership from their desert gated communities. "At least we now know where they live," he said. There are more than 80 million people in Egypt, 30 per cent of them under 20. And they are no longer afraid.
And a kind of Egyptian nationalism – rather than Islamism – is making itself felt at the demonstrations. January 25 is National Police Day – to honour the police force who died fighting British troops in Ishmaelia – and the government clucked its tongue at the crowds, telling them they were disgracing their martyrs. No, shouted the crowds, those policemen who died at Ishmaelia were brave men, not represented by their descendants in uniform today.
This is not an unclever government, though. There is a kind of shrewdness in the gradual freeing of the press and television of this ramshackle pseudo-democracy. Egyptians had been given just enough air to breathe, to keep them quiet, to enjoy their docility in this vast farming land. Farmers are not revolutionaries, but when the millions thronged to the great cities, to the slums and collapsing houses and universities, which gave them degrees and no jobs, something must have happened.
"We are proud of the Tunisians – they have shown Egyptians how to have pride," another Egyptian colleague said yesterday. "They were inspiring but the regime here was smarter than Ben Ali in Tunisia. It provided a veneer of opposition by not arresting all the Muslim Brotherhood, then by telling the Americans that the great fear should be Islamism, that Mubarak was all that stood between them and 'terror' – a message the US has been in a mood to hear for the past 10 years."
There are various clues that the authorities in Cairo realised something was afoot. Several Egyptians have told me that on 24 January, security men were taking down pictures of Gamal Mubarak from the slums – lest they provoke the crowds. But the vast number of arrests, the police street beatings – of women as well as men – and the near-collapse of the Egyptian stock market bear the marks of panic rather than cunning.
And one of the problems has been created by the regime itself; it has systematically got rid of anyone with charisma, thrown them out of the country, politically emasculating any real opposition by imprisoning many of them. The Americans and the EU are telling the regime to listen to the people – but who are these people, who are their leaders? This is not an Islamic uprising – though it could become one – but, save for the usual talk of Muslim Brotherhood participation in the demonstrations, it is just one mass of Egyptians stifled by decades of failure and humiliation.
But all the Americans seem able to offer Mubarak is a suggestion of reforms – something Egyptians have heard many times before. It's not the first time that violence has come to Egypt's streets, of course. In 1977, there were mass food riots – I was in Cairo at the time and there were many angry, starving people – but the Sadat government managed to control the people by lowering food prices and by imprisonment and torture. There have been police mutinies before – one ruthlessly suppressed by Mubarak himself. But this is something new.
Interestingly, there seems no animosity towards foreigners. Many journalists have been protected by the crowds and – despite America's lamentable support for the Middle East's dictators – there has not so far been a single US flag burned. That shows you what's new. Perhaps a people have grown up – only to discover that their ageing government are all children.
Internet and text messages fail in 'facebook revolution'
Egyptian authorities last night disrupted internet services and mobile-phone text messaging in efforts to stop protesters keeping in touch on social networking sites. The measure was taken as members of an elite counter-terrorism police unit were ordered to take up positions in key locations around Cairo in preparation for a wave of mass rallies today.
Among the places where they are stationed is Tahrir Square, where one of the biggest demonstrations took place. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and other social networking sites have played a vital role in Egypt's protest movement, just as they did in Tunisia, enabling demonstrators to keep in touch and to organise rallies.
Who could succeed Hosni Mubarak?
Gamal Mubarak
Protesters on the streets of Egypt aren't just rallying against the 30-year-reign of President Hosni Mubarak, they are also taking aim at his son Gamal Mubarak, 47, an urbane former investment banker who has scaled the political ladder, prompting speculation that he is being groomed for his father's post.
The youngest son of Mr Mubarak and his half-Welsh wife, Suzanne, Gamal was educated at the elite American University in Cairo, going on to work for the Bank of America.
He entered politics about a decade ago, quickly moving up to become head of the political secretariat of his father's National Democratic Party (NDP). He was heavily involved in the economic liberalisation of Egypt, which pleased investors but provoked the ire of protesters, who blame the policies for lining the pockets of the rich while the poor suffered.
Although he has always denied having an eye on his father's throne, a mysterious campaign sprung up last year, with posters plastered across Cairo calling for Gamal to stand for president in elections scheduled for later this year. His 82-year-old father has not yet declared his candidacy.
Certainly the protesters appeared unhappy with the chosen son, chanting "Gamal, tell your father Egyptians hate you" and tearing up his picture.
Mohamed ElBaradei
Protests in Egypt today will be different from the others that have swept the Middle East in recent weeks in one important way. Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), landed at Cairo airport last night to lead rallies against Hosni Mubarak's rule.
The 68-year-old was born in the Egyptian capital, from where he launched a legal career. He joined the IAEA in the 1980s, becoming head of the UN body in 1997.
The 2003 invasion of Iraq thrust Mr ElBaradei into the public consciousness. He demurred on the US rationale for attacking Saddam Hussein, describing the war as "a glaring example of how, in many cases, the use of force exacerbates the problem rather than solving it". The award, jointly with the IAEA, of the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize further rankled with the Bush administration.
He has long been urged to challenge the 82-year-old President, but hitherto has bided his time, insisting first on electoral reform, but his participation in today's protests indicate he is ready. Recent speeches, including recently at Harvard, when he joked that he was "looking for a job" have done nothing to dissuade his supporters, but at 68 his presidency would surely be only a short-term fix to Egypt's problems.
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105 Comments so far
Show AllI am sure there are leaders, and leaders always emerge.
A leader dopes not have to be a "somebody," especially since it is the western media telling us who is and who is not a "somebody." Then the US government backs the designated "somebody" and everyone pats themselves on the back that they correctly predicted who the leader would be. It is all a self-fulfilling prophecy. There is not way to have a mass movement like the one in Egypt without there being leadership in the midst.
The uprisings - in Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, Tunisia, Egypt and to various degrees elsewhere have been characterized as "spontaneous" by western media because the working people have gotten ahead of the political and union organizations. They, and the US government look for "leaders" so they know whom to bribe or assassinate.
I don't mean was formed. I mean became visible to us. I don't mean that leadership emerged from a person, I mean when the leaders emerge into our view.
You can watch Al Jazeera's live stream broadcasting in English here:
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
The Whitewash House has postponed its briefing on the events in Egypt. No one needs to wonder why. The President's advisers are debating whether to place their bet on red or black in this obvious political game of roulette.
El Baradei: that is interesting because he knows from direct experience how devious U.S. administrations can be.
Indeed, the triangulator Obama and weathervane Hillary are now carefully testing the wind in order to ensure the right timing to jump in front of the parade. Hillary did so with Tunisia, and even Biden is now squirming backward from standing by his man Mubarak.
ElBaradei is a promising, secular candidate with the intelligence and courage to buck the powers that be. As head of the IAEA, he very effectively quashed AIPAC's agit-prop on Iran's nukes, rankling Bush and Netanyahu by foiling their war plans. This earned him the condemnatin of Condi Rice, and worse, her withering glare.
The US has promised to export smaller tear gas canisters to Egypt. (It will continue to donate jumbo sized canisters to Israel to use against the Palestinians.)
A harbinger of things to come. Now we get to watch the world economy unravel and the social network, in those places that are not prepared, unravel as well. Coming soon, to a city near you.
how did the thugs manage to shut down the internet and other communication technologies in egypt?
the egyptian government didn't have a killswitch or a comprehensive and centralized screening system, like the chinese and iranian government do, according to the experts.
as ususal,
with just crumbs falling out of a few billions annually (as most of that money comes right back to the elite countries through their coporates and finaciers),
the global capitalist elites have kept the Mubarak regime irrelevant and powerless internationally (taking no position in any international matter)and domestically (with no control over its own social / economic / technological structure).
the global private capitalist sector shut the internet and cell phone technology down in egypt.
the Mubarak regimes has been a simple mobster group carrying out the dirty work ordered by the elite center.
This is certainly bloodless compaired to anything our government ever does.
Thanks for having Al Jazeera TV on my cable. They just reported that a plane has just left Egypt carrying the country's biggest businessmen.
Things have moved so quickly! It looks like large sections of the army and police have joined the revolution. Success here and Tunisia, etc. will embolden the working class throughout the world. When the people move, change can happen in just a few days.
Capitalist elites around the world must be shitting bricks now, wondering it they are next.
This is great!
How pissed does America have to get before it deposes its oligarchs?
it usually tells you on the tin.
:O)
when the majority have to wonder where their next meal is coming from, literally.
“The hour in which–and it’s a space rather than a time–every being becomes his own shadow, and thus something other than himself. The hour of metamorphoses, when people half hope, half fear that the dog will become a wolf.”
–(Jean Genet, “Prisoner of Love.”)
Which may be sooner than anybody thinks... Say, when Boehner refuses to raise the national debt limit?
Next step, Egypt opens its border to Gaza. Israel is going to be fucked. Finally.
That will be a thing of beauty.
In deed it will be a thing of beauty! AND an accurate indicator of Egypts loyalties.
That is what you wish and hope. Sorry brother, Israel may drop a few thousand tons of bombs, You know jolly well what Israel will and can do, with the usual support from the US.
Dear sivasm:
If Israel is that insane, to take on even more nations, then I suggest that they look behind them: Iran and Turkey certainly owe Israel nothing.
I doubt if the U.S. could help Israel; they USED to be the stable Middle East country, but if Israel decides to attack with no provacation, they would have to be on their own.
Corporate America has too many interets in other Middle East nations. NEVER FORGET that money is the life blood of corporations, and money trumps DNA and citizenship. Corporations have an entirely different interpretation of the words, "Right of Return."
Hopefully, the poorly-paid police will join them. As far as many local police for here in the U.S., they've already thought of that. Where I live the police force make a very, good living, in the six figures with nice benefits and hefty pensions. They are not of the peasant class. I hear there's a few other cities like that, too.
We would have to persuade our not-as-well-paid military.
For those who listen to NPR, I'm sure you've heard the spin on All Things Considered by now, or will, later.
Just read that Mubarek will be stepping down and his family has fled the country secretly.
http://www.presstv.com/detail/162481.html
presstv reported this from the muslim brotherhoods website Ikhwanweb.com
Predictibly, Mubarak is invoking the "security" canard:
""These demonstrations -- the chaos and the fires -- is a plan actually to wreck the security (of Egypt)," the president said.
"I take responsibility for the security of this country and the citizens. I will not let this happen. I will not let fear to live in the citizens or to let this tell us what's going to happen in the future."
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/28/egypt.mubarak.tv.speech/
The old man promised "economic reforms," which are needed, but are of less importance to the demonstrators than the overwhelming need for political reform--reform that starts with the old man's ouster and the institution of a new system.
It should also be noted that the "riots" are the usual police riots used against protesters globally.
Bush SAID he would bring democracy to the middle-east...what a genius...
The big lie becomes the big truth. What a world.
Fires are burning now on the outskirts of the US Empire, while it rots economically from the inside.
One can only imagine the creeping panic in one of the Empires forward outposts--the State of Israel. Revolutions sweeping out the Arab world's accomodationist regimes from Eygpt on the west and surely the Jordanian monarchy on the east. Secret documents discrediting Abu Mazen and the Palestinian Authority's collaborators and boosting Hamas. Hizbollah selecting the new Prime Minister and gaining de facto control of the Lebanese government. Moktada al Sadr, influencing events in Iraq in concert with his Iranian allies while US power is sapped by the occupation there and in Afghanistan.
We are close now to the moment of truth for the US/Israel axis. A slow quiet death by strangulation or the Sampson Option and The Road as Cormac McCarthy imagined it for all of us.
You guys have successfully scared the crap out of me! I´m just praying that the new government in Ejypt will be a benevolent one, be it another dictatorship, or hopefully democratic socialist like Brazil, which I believe is the best of all, but still needs vigilance to prevent the rich from grabbing control. I think the main thing is not to worry and hope for the best. Things may be happening quickly but don´t look for a sudden change in the status quo, that could take another 20 years, which would be pretty damn quick! As for Israel, they need to start treating their enemies with dignity and respect if they are going to survive, even then, wow, it´s a can of worms. I love the stuff that you guys have been saying about karma. I´ve often thought about that stuff but it has seemed like the US just keeps getting away with murder and mayhem. It is so sad what they did to Nicaragua, and Viet Nam, and Panama, and virtually everywhere else. If the world stopped using the US dollar as a standard that would be the immediate end of the US economy as it is. The dollar has nothing to back it up except the fear of losing it. I´m probably not too smart buying pesos, but Mexico is where I now live,and you sure can get a lot of stuff here with dollars right now.
Sorry I accidentaly posted twice and I can´t seem to remove it; all I can do is edit it.
I like what I've read of the burning of ruling party headquarters. The protesters raided it first and made off with the computers, so it looks like they've scored a treasure trove of information about the ruling party. Serves the bastards right after shutting the phones and Internet down. Now that's what I call justice and giving the state a dose of its own medicine. Doing to the government what they do to the citizenry all the time.
Fisk's latest from Cairo:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/a-people-defies-its-dictator-and-a-nations-future-is-in-the-balance-2197769.html
No, I don't, but please post here if you find out.
Up late or early, Visiting Professor?
According to this article by Timothy Karr it is Narus of Sunnyvale California now owned by Boeing. http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/01/28-12
"The filth and the slums, the open sewers and the corruption of every government official, the bulging prisons, the laughable elections, the whole vast, sclerotic edifice of power has at last brought Egyptians on to their streets."
Considering that Bob's rancid description of Egypt sounds uncomfortably like the mirror image of our own "America" (sic), one can only wonder when the unwashed masses of our filthy, crack and meth filled murderous slums will sprout cajones and tear down our own disgusting regime of whoring politicians in this corpocrtatic militocracy we confuse with democracy.
The Guardian published some figures about the US annual aid to Egypt:
1. $1 billion in military aid.
2. $231 million in civilian aid [about 25% of the military aid]
Then also here are some factoids about Egyptian polpulation demographics and Mubarak:
* Population - - 82 million
* Median age -- 25 [so 50% of population is 25 or younger]
* Mubarak regime - - 30 years since 1981
* Cairo population - - 20 million
* Mubarak Internal Security personnel - - 1.2 million
* Army -- About 1/2 million soldiers
* Minimum wage per month of industrial workers before revolution - - $50 per month
* Minimum Wage demand by workers before revolution - -$180 per month to live without starvation under increasing food prices
* Response by billionaire in Mubarak government in charge of Labour Ministry - - $70 and "we are being generous"
Prez. Obama, before his speech, his calculator broke down. So he couldn't handle all these data in his head. He asked Hilary, "Some civilian aid is going to them, right?" Hilary replied "Depends on what you mean by is."
Wikileaks reported this conversation. Wikileak's also reported that:
There things stand. Obama has convened an emergency session of the National Security Council on Saturday to decide whether to reduce Egypt's population as requested by Mubarak in a private call via military satellite, or to order a new calculator and charge it to the civilain aid provided to Egypt as suggested by Senator Rand Paul. The NSC is split on this with new Chief of Staff Daly favouring Mubarak's request after consulting Admiral Reichstag of the 8th Mediterranean Fleet, but Budget Director Peter Orzag favours the calculator solution as fast, efficient and sligtly less costly as told to him by the WH Procurement Dept.
Western MidEast floating envoy Tony Blair is also flying in for the special meeting of the NSC on Air Force 1. Asked for his opinion at Tel Aviv airport about these options, he responded that he has been advised of third way by Prime Minister Netanyahu to handle the crisis in Egypt and elsewhere in the ME. It is put in motion for the whole of the ME right away the very succesful General Petraeus 2006 "surge strategy" in Iraq. It will have the added benefit of boosting all of the Western economies and cure the unemployment problems there.
Wikileaks will keep us posted on the NSC meeting.
Mubarak Sacks Cabinet, Promises New Govt on Saturday
Yes, good move, its everyone else, the stasi,, the abusive police state warrant less surveillance , and really bad judicial system that does not protect citizens freedoms and rights to privacy, not you Mr USA puppet Mubarak.
Wow did I just describe the USA and Bush/Cheney/Obama regime.
Yes I did, stasi and all.
infowars.com V You re the resistance.
"Egyptian authorities last night disrupted internet services and mobile-phone text messaging in efforts to stop protesters keeping in touch on social networking sites. The measure was taken as members of an elite counter-terrorism police unit were ordered to take up positions in key locations around Cairo in preparation for a wave of mass rallies today."
When counter-terrorism personnel and tactics are used against citizen protestors, citizens then become the de facto terrorists. It's emblematic of how governments view anyone who oppose their authoritarian rule.
As long as nearly 100 percent of the protesters remain to be males I remain suspicious of their objectives and conclude that the political future of Egypt is bleak. What a world of difference with the civil rights demonstrations in our country of the 60's!
It is exactly because I understand these roles that I somewhat distrust the scene in Egypt and am reluctant to support the uprising or even ask my President to support it. Should my country be in the business of supporting a culture that we do not tolerate here and that is likely to be prolonged by this uprising? That is what my comment is all about. Should my nation support the macho culture of many (but not all) male Egyptian Arabs? I wonder what Michelle Obama thinks when she sees the scenes of Cairo and Alexandria.
Remember Tienanmen Square? What a difference! Men and women; boys and girls were there to protest. Where are the female students in Cairo and Alexandria?
And speaking about "traditional roles", it was not too long ago a tradition that women in the United States were citizens but political total non-existent. Just as the women in most (but not all) Arab nations are today. That changed during the civil war, especially in the CSA. A healthy culture has the guts to look at its traditions and eventually reject the useless ones. And even in "traditional" Arab cultures there are gigantic differences of treatment between upper-class and lower-class women. And correct me if I am wrong but I believe that women in Libya serve in the Armed Forces of Qaddafi.
Do the men in Cairo demonstrate for equal rights of women or only for their own rights they perceive as pre-eminent, that is the question. If the second is the case I hold them in contempt because the suppression of women in these societies is a major cause for their socio-economic backwardness if not failure.
How do you account for the near 100 percent male composition of the protesting crowds Professor?
Incidentally I am a male. Just to avoid a misunderstanding.
My understanding from following the reporting is that women are participating in the protests and do support them. Those involved in the violent clashes do appear largely male. Some images of young and old women involved in the protests http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/8009860-photos-young-women-in-egypt-protests.
Crowsnest,
It doesn´t matter if you are okay with that culture or not. The fact is that it is a popular revolution. The people have nothing, so they have nothing to lose. They are fighting for their dignity. Hopefully when they win there will be a popular movement to ban the common practice of "baksheesh". I hope I´m spelling that right. Baksheesh is the grease that is required to make anything happen in that culture, (a bribe). When Mubarak leaves and they start over, they have a mountain of work ahead of them. Hopefully that will involve recognizing woman´s rights. There are good indications that it may not go the route of religious extremism. Having said that, I´ve been to Ejypt and they definetly have their islamic way of seeing things, and that includes the women. What those people need most right now is our support, not our condemnation.
My skepticism is not about the current uprising but about its outcome. I firmly think that oil-poor Arab states such as Egypt will continue to wallow in abject poverty if they do not liberate the economic and political power of women. I will yield to you if you can demonstrate that I am wrong. What "those people" need now in the moment of their potential liberation is "liberation for all". I am skeptical that that will happen and no amount of my elation about the potential fall of a dictator can remove my skepticism. I have lived through the period of the colonial revolutions. With very few exceptions such as India these revolutions brought to power a rapacious and often murderous bourgeoisie or worse. The former colonial landscape has been strewn with Idi Amin's and their successors and most of them were not swept into power by religious extremists. History does not favor the Egyptian demonstrators for reasons that have nothing to do with religious extremism but all with the control of banks, multinational corporations, and the armed forces. These are very good at what the French call "reculer pour mieux sauter", retreat to pounce better later.
The demand that "Mubarak must go" should be accompanied by the demand that "the Governance of Egypt must change". As long as I do not hear that I remain skeptical about the outcome.