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When Will Troop Withdrawal From Afghanistan Ever End?
Persistent waffling on dates for American troop withdrawals from
Afghanistan has eroded any remaining patience with the Obama White House
among peace activists and voters, a majority of whom favors a timeline
for US troop withdrawals.
Nancy Youssef of McClatchy reports that the White House has decided to de-emphasize its pledge to begin withdrawing US forces by next July, and adopt a new goal of withdrawing by 2014. The New York Times on Nov. 11 described the new policy as "effectively a victory for the military." Seeming to miss the point entirely, the White House immediately declared it was "crystal clear" that there will be no change to the July 2011 date for beginning the drawdown.
The credibility problem is that the White House has never defined the scale of its initial drawdown, lending credence to reports that the elusive pursuit of "success" will take years. Filling in the blanks is the only way the White House can repair this image crisis. For example, Obama could promise to withdraw 50,000 US troops between 2011-2012, a number that would dispel the aura of tokenism and weakness which now surrounds US policy. The moderate Afghanistan Study Group, whose members have ties to the White House, has proposed withdrawing 32,000 by next October and another 38,000 by the following July. The AFG has stated, "The U.S. cannot afford to continue waffling on its commitments, lest it lose what little credibility it has with Afghan people. Reneging on the July deadline will also likely have adverse political effects given that war is already very unpopular.
The president is expected to clarify his goals at a NATO conference this week. America's leading military partner, the United Kingdom, with some 9,500 troops, has already floated 2014 as the deadline for its troop departure. Canada, France, Italy, Poland, Sweden and the Netherlands, whose combat troops total a combined 14,850, are all in the process of withdrawing by 2014 at the latest.
The projected costs of another three years are staggering and rarely reported. Assuming the current pattern of American casualties and costs through 2012, followed by a fifty percent reduction in those figures in 2013-14, Pentagon data reveals the following:
Oct. 2001-Nov. 2010: Americans killed, 1378; Americans wounded, 9,256; direct taxpayer costs, $364 billion.
2011 projection: 450 more Americans killed, bringing the cumulative total to 1,850; 5,000 more Americans wounded, bringing the cumulative total to 14,800; another $113 billion in direct taxpayer costs, bringing the cumulative total to $503 billion.
2012 projection: at present rates, the cumulative death toll will become 2,300, the cumulative wounded number will become 15,300; and the cumulative budget cost will become $616 billion.
2013-14 projections [assuming a fifty percent reduction]: another 450 killed over two years, bringing the total to 2,750; another 5,000 wounded over two years, bringing the total to 20,300; another $113 billion over two years, bringing the total to $728 billion.
In plainer terms, the projected American casualties and costs in Afghanistan alone will double in the next three years from present levels.
According to the current Foreign Affairs, the war in Afghanistan is now more than twice expensive as Iraq [Altman-Haass, "American Profligacy and American Power", Nov.-Dec. 2010, p. 31].
Those numbers do not include Pakistan, Yemen or tens of billions in the growing US intelligence budget. Nor do the tax dollar figures include rising indirect costs such as veterans' health care. Nor are the casualties civilians known or estimated.
Perhaps the greatest policy question is what the American troops are fighting for. According to the CIA, there are no more than 100 Al Qaeda militants lingering in Afghanistan. Their sanctuaries have moved to Pakistan and CIA officials have recently said, "the Yemeni cell posed an even more dangerous threat to the United States than the Qaeda headquarters in Pakistan." [NYT, Oct. 17, 2010]
Meanwhile in Afghanistan, American troops are fighting and dying to prop up an Afghanistan regime that is riddled with corruption, lacks a sufficient army to defend itself, and maintains power by fraudulent elections.
The cruel pathos of the American situation is summed up in two options sketched by Gideon Rose, the new editor of Foreign Affairs, the organ of the Council on Foreign Affairs:
First, "at best, Afghanistan could become another Iraq, with strong late innings gaining the United States the opportunity to draw down its forces gradually" or, second, "it could be a replay of Vietnam, with the White House deciding to pull the plug on a thankless struggle in a strategically marginal country." A third option is ignored, that of another massive terrorist attack on the US provoked by the drone attacks and night raids in Afghanistan and Pakistan. [NYT, Nov. 5, 2010]
There is another cost, too. The constant drain in blood and taxes for the long wars may soon become a terminal drain on any hopes for the Obama presidency.
- Posted in
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35 Comments so far
Show AllThe title of this article is rich with irony. Did the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan ever begin, in the first place??
Yes, he should have used a euphemism instead, perhaps "drawdown" (obverse of "surge")? Reminds one of George Orwell's essay on Politics and Language:
----
In our time, political speech and writing are largely the defence of the indefensible. Things like the continuance of British rule in India, the Russian purges and deportations, the dropping of the atom bombs on Japan, can indeed be defended, but only by arguments which are too brutal for most people to face, and which do not square with the professed aims of the political parties. Thus political language has to consist largely of euphemism, question-begging and sheer cloudy vagueness. Defenceless villages are bombarded from the air, the inhabitants driven out into the countryside, the cattle machine-gunned, the huts set on fire with incendiary bullets: this is called pacification. Millions of peasants are robbed of their farms and sent trudging along the roads with no more than they can carry: this is called transfer of population or rectification of frontiers. People are imprisoned for years without trial, or shot in the back of the neck or sent to die of scurvy in Arctic lumber camps: this is called elimination of unreliable elements....The great enemy of clear language is insincerity. When there is a gap between one's real and one's declared aims, one turns as it were instinctively to long words and exhausted idioms, like a cuttlefish spurting out ink. In our age there is no such thing as ‘keeping out of politics’. All issues are political issues, and politics itself is a mass of lies, evasions, folly, hatred, and schizophrenia.
----
http://orwell.ru/library/essays/politics/english/e_polit
All these so-called withdrawal dates are just BS for the sheeple. AMERICAN BUSINESS; IS THE WAR BUSINESS! The most evil business known to man. Real peace, would be like a catastrophic depression to this war business racket. ENDLESS ENEMIES,FOR ENDLESS WARS, FOR ENDLESS PROFITS!
Cost of war for fascist amerika ??? Occupations of Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan...Not War; but total terrorist acts carried out daily by amerikas imperialist forces ! The cost of these terrorist acts against humanity?! The fall/ collapse of the amerikan empire...the suffering amerika has/is causing IS its downfall !
One of the most elementary insights contained in Orwell's "1984" is that a totalitarian empire requires perpetual war to sustain the parasitic dystopia that it creates.
War is good for ab-so-lute-ly nothing for the ordinary unprivileged citizen. But it's just the ticket for keeping warmongering plutocrats prosperous, looting and pillaging material resources wherever they're found, and keeping the domestic masses in control and checked by a permanent state of irrationality and fearful hysteria.
After Vietnam, the burgeoning Amerikan Imperium made do with a few safe, manufactured boutique "wars", e.g. Panama and Grenada. But those were small potatoes. As the PNAC neocons recognized, it would take a much more sustained and concentrated "war" to fully mobilize and rationalize Imperial Amerika's capacity for unilateral military violence and mayhem.
And so we had a Nine-Eleven to Change Everything.
Oh, the Amerikan Dictator du jour continues to make "sensible" noises about "ending" criminal aggressive military extravaganzas in Iraq and Afghanistan. But even that is mostly a matter of glibly re-branding and shifting around the shells so that the putrescent pea of combat and provocative espionage operations remains downwind and virtually out of sight.
It seems obvious to me that Yemen and even Iran are being groomed on the back burner to serve as targets if and when the Afghanistan Phase of Imperial Amerikan Permawar is diminished.
Terrorist retaliation on Amerikan soil? It's a win-win event for the warmongers! That's why the status quo encourages the possibility. And if authentic acts of terrorism don't occur, or are insufficient to sustain public outrage and a collective thirst for vengeful retaliation, state security agencies will happily stage them.
After all, only "kooks" and deluded malcontents believe that a government would victimize its own innocent populace to serve its nefarious political policies and ambitions.
Iraq and Afghanistan are just pirouettes in a perpetual War Dance.
It's always somethin'...
Kill the Russians.
Kill the Commies.
Kill the Fascists.
Kill the Nazis.
Kill the Hun.
Kill the Kaiser.
Kill the Injun.
Kill the Reb.
Kill the Yank.
Kill the King.
Kill the Pope.
Kill them All.
It gives us hope.
Bravo, OS. Like Ive noted many times: the posters of this site provide more insight than the vast majority of contributors, but this is especially true for Hayden and the bourgeois apologists of the Dem party.
Tom Hayden is finally showing signs of waking up.
Back in March 2009, he was defending Obama, writing
"After years of frustrating ambiguity, President Obama has clearly committed to a complete withdrawal of all US troops in less than three years."
Many of us were then already fully aware that Obama was NOT "committed" to troop withdrawals, much less "clearly committed".
"Tom Hayden is finally showing signs of waking up."
Probably just trying to redefine himself? Face it, there's not gonna be a lot of paying work for those 'Bama defenders now.
The jig is up.
Since people here are hesitant to do anything earth-shattering, how about hiring British university students to come here and thrash our ruling parties' headquarters and call for ending our senseless wars against evil and our senseless catering to the rich?
I think we should call England and ask to be taken back.
If y'all don't mind, I'll contact my gaucho friends in Argentina. I like the way the do business down there much better than in old Brittan. After all, they are themselves but the corpse of an empire of yesteryear.
We seem to have a penchant for conflict. Is this endemic of our species? Do we just shrug it off and say, 'what has always been will always be'?
There was a recent documentary on Nova about dogs. To answer the nature/nurture debate, scientists tried raising wild "dogs" - wolves (that share identical DNA with dogs) - as pets. At a certain age, these wolves become more aggressive than dogs and are generally uninterested in humans - therefore, untrainable.
But in a study with foxes (who also share DNA with wolves), where the less aggressive foxes were separated and interbred with other less aggressive foxes, they became domesticated (or peaceful) animals after about 5 generations.
Also, most interestingly, the foxes' actual physical appearance genetically modified toward the "cuter" end of the spectrum - curly tails, fluffier coats, etc.
We need to somehow 'weed out' all of the aggressive humans (male and female) and get all of the more passive individuals to fuck like crazy. Any which way. Doesn't matter, just eventually make babies. Teach them well. Weed out the more aggressive of these offspring. Repeat.
This will also satisfy the over-population problem.
Ya mean that after 9 years of an occupation by a hi-tech US military that has 8 (eight) times more armed forces than Taliban militants whose only weapons are pickup trucks, Ak-47s and unexploded US ordnance, yet the Taliban control 80% of Afghanistan, ya mean that we finally geddit? One word: Defeat. The US military was whipped, pure and simple, and no amount of spin can change that fact.
So bring the troops home, tend to their (life-long) wounds, give them a medal, and spend the savings on rebooting our economy.
Hmmm...no, you've misunderstood. The Taliban wants to talk peace. Get it? The US is only withdrawing because they're all friends again, therefore, their role as "referee" is over. The US never loses. Ever!
Gottit. "We are at war with Iran. We have always been at war with Iran."
As usual, there is no mention that it is AFGHANS who are primarily suffering the costs -- human, environmental, economic, cultural, moral, et al -- of this US war of occupation.
Tom Hayden should know better.
tj
Excellent point.
"War is not healthy for children and other living things."-Lorraine Schneider [1925-1972], American artist and activist
Perhaps the counterpoint to the above quote would be to state that:
Peace is not healthy for generals and other killing things.
Taylor Caldwell predicted our endless wars against enemies not easily conforming to the traditional concept of "enemies". She predicted that years, and years, and years ago.
Old Peculiar, I liked your commentary on dogs, wolves, and foxes. I am sure that I read somewhere that there is a "cute pet" gene that separates dogs from wolves.
Last year, I read the most amazing article in "Scientific American". Apparently, pet cats descended from Yemeni, Saudi, and Israeli wild cats. The article went on to say that there are more genetic differences between the Italians and the French than between the wild cats of those countries and ordinary house cats.
After seeing some of those wild cats in some of those countries, my question is: What are the genetic differences between the French and the Italians?
Aaaah, the Israeli part would explain why cats close their eyes when they're being fed so as not to see the hand that feeds them.
It occured to me on 11/11 that my grandfather,father,brother,and a child of mine could all have died in wars in other people's homeland, an insane paradigm. If this is freedom I'll take bondage.
Troop Withdrawal one box at a time From Afghanistan for ever and Ever without End
The other article "Consider Smaller Afghan Force: US Panel" here on CD is one that reports the findings of a study group of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Whether by accident or deliberately CD did not provide a comments section for that article. Therefore I am posting here.
The article does not introduce the CFR at all. Like the title it just sort of lets us assume that the CFR is some sort of government body. But it is nothing of the sort.
The CFR now has its own website and facebook pages.
http://www.cfr.org
But these web pages, like the wikipedia pages do not truly introduce the CFR at all. These web pages, like the "common members" such as Angelina Jolie etc, serve to give the CFR a comfortable facade.
The existence of the CFR used to be secret. If you mentioned on radio talkback, you were told that no such organisation exists. it was a conspiracy theory, and all conspiracy theories were false. Its meetings were in secret, and its executive meetings probably still are. Its membership used to be what is now referred to as its "executive membership". They included: Rupert Murdoch, David Rockefeller, Henry Kissinger, Peter G. Peterson, George Soros, Maurice Greenberg, Robert Rubin, George P. Shultz, Alan Greenspan, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Richard B. Cheney, and George Tenet-as well as individuals whose membership is more unexpected, such as John Sweeney, Jessie Jackson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Katrina vanden Heuvel, Richard J. Barnet, and Daniel Schorr. Yes, "membership" now redefined to be the "executive membership" reads like a list of the most powerful people in the USA.
http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Foreign_Policy_Institutions/Council_Foreign_Relations.html
If you look hard enough, you will find the CFR behind all the wars including the Iraq war and the Afghan war. I find it utterly weird to have an article reporting the CFR's "findings" here on CD. The CFR website wont tell you what seedy side of the CFR does. This video will:-
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3968544393356669182#
I rather suspect that the occupation of Afghanistan will end when the pipeline is completed. Does anyone know how that little venture project is going, btw?
And once it has been completed, who will protect the pipeline?
It will be the same Militaries with the mission "rebranded". They will be in place to "Fight the Drug Trade" and for "earthquake relief".
Those types of mission "do not count".
The occupation will end when the American people wake up and stop voting for the warmongering parties- Democrats and Republicans.
Vote Independent and Green.
"The occupation will end when the American people wake up and stop voting for the warmongering parties- Democrats and Republicans."
The video that I linked above has a different take on that.
War has been a very visible part of the United States policy since before independence. And it is never going to be absent from its relations with other countries. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are preludes to war against Iran and other middle east countries.These will be waged and justified with the consent of government in the name of "our continued war on terror"and in the name of "homeland security". These are two fraudulent thesis to extol continued fear and insecurity in the people. The bush administration and now obama's have used these two terms very well not only to wage unjustified war against two of the most poor and illiterate countries but to prepare us for further war in the future against a developing country--Iran in the guise of stopping that country from developing Atomic weapons.
War with Iran is almost inevitable. The deaths of millions of innocents, including our own will become our legacy to the world in the United States pursuit to become the most ruthless and blood thirsty country ever. And all for the pursuit of political and economic gain. Is'nt Democracy grand??!!!................and the beat goes on.
Tom Hayden wants to cut Obama some slack, and allow him a partial withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in the next year or so. He's even calculated the deaths expected to occur in the interim.
Is this the same Tom Hayden who called for U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam at the DNC in 1968? Why be so accommodating with the Afghanistan war, Tom? I don't think anyone in the antiwar movement agrees with this unilateral offer to extend the killing time. Why not call Obama a liar and demand the troops out now?
And who cares that Obama's war extension hurts him politically. He's not on our side. Whose side are you on, Tom - the antiwar movement or the Democratic Party's. You chose correctly once upon a time in 1968. Why not now?
-TIA
When Will Troop Withdrawal From Afghanistan Ever End?
by Tom Hayden
When millions gather on the steps of the white house every week, from all walks of life, from all religions, especially right wing Christians,
and you declare a global police force be created to handle terrorists, that Terrorism is not an entity that requires a military solution and storm trooping into country's because terrorist might be there is not a legal remedy.
Then, and only then, will the occupations and the wars end.
When the reality of terrorism being organized crime and not an excuse for war fare is the only sane definition understood by the whole world.
When the whole planet understands why terrorists really hate the US government, and not the American people.
When Will Troop Withdrawal From Afghanistan Ever End?
by Tom Hayden
When millions gather on the steps of the white house every week, from all walks of life, from all religions, especially right wing Christians,
and you declare a global police force be created to handle terrorists, that Terrorism is not an entity that requires a military solution and storm trooping into country's because terrorist might be there is not a legal remedy.
Then, and only then, will the occupations and the wars end.
When the reality of terrorism being organized crime and not an excuse for war fare is the only sane definition understood by the whole world.
When the whole planet understands why terrorists really hate the US government, and not the American people.
"..terrorists really hate the US government, and not the American people."
I'll have t disagree with Hayden here. Thinking people of the world know about American democracy, and know that Americans overwhelmingly vote for pro-war hawks. Thinking people of the world know that the American Government is the working tool of its citizens and moneyed interests. Thinking people of the world know that American citizens could end the occupations using the same methods that they used to bring an end to the Vietnam folly. Thinking people of the world know that Americans are not lifting a finger to help oppressed peoples of the world except when it benefits American shareholders.
It is thee and me who are to blame, not a faceless no-name machine called government.
Christian viewpoint: Thou shalt not kill
I offer this as food for thought. I’ve said this before, but it sounds like it needs saying again: If you join the armed services, what are you if not a murderer for hire? How can there be “good men and women” in the armed forces?
Do good men and women really offer to kill for others? I really can't see it. How many people did Hitler kill? One, that we can be reasonably certain of, since it is general knowledge that he committed suicide. As for millions of other deaths generally attributed to him, as in, "Hitler killed six to ten million Jews," it robs so many others of proper credit and is thus unfair, since Hitler did not kill those millions--other people did it for him.
In the same vein, George Bush did not kill anyone, nor did Osama bin Ladin, as far as I know. They have others do the killing for them [I'm not suggesting 9/11 here, as that remains an open question]. If you are willing to kill another human being, what business have you on this planet?
If you want to kill someone, I say kill yourself. I won't even get into the opportunities lost, because we squander over half our taxes on the military (which, incidentally, can't catch a cave man after nine years). I do not support our troops.
I support our conscientious objectors, and other thinking people.
I support nurses, doctors, teachers, construction workers, garbage men, laborers, cooks, waiters and waitresses, writers, inventors, organic farmers, architects, scientists, engineers, computer programmers, landscapers, and all those who choose to actually do something with their lives.
To the destroyers I say: Why don't you get a life? Far better to be a prostitute, even, than to be a military person. You are at least hiring out to bring pleasure to others, not misery and destruction.
If you can't bring yourself to kill yourself, and you still feel a vague need to kill someone, at least get to know a great many people first. Then pick the one you like the least. It will probably be a Republican.
Then you may have some real personal reason to kill, rather than doing so because politician wants others killed, but can't seem to do it him or herself.
What hopes do we have for an 0bama presidency outside of termination? The president isn't waffling, and he normally does not: he is lying to camouflage a continued occupation. This is psychopathy, not diffidence or incompetence.
So many commentators get stuck on this idea that 0bama's policies are somehow an oversight. The proposition is absurd:
---- Oops! I didn't mean to leave those troops in Afghanistan.
---- Gosh, I plum forgot about the contractors, too.
I'm sorry. All of this has long become humorless, probably for all of us. One could go down the list, but the principle is rather simple:
0bama's
policies
are corporatist-conservative
and reactionary statist
in every single area.
So why would someone like Hayden, who has some analytical chops, indulge reader fantasies, if not his own, in "hopes for the 0bama administration"? Is this hope not constructed entirely of despair, despair that the gross betrayal committed by 0bama and most of the Democratic leadership will indeed lead to another Republican White House, and likely a Republican majority in both houses?
If that's hope, my cigarettes are herbal air fresheners.
Sadly, most hope is outside of the electoral process these days. I don't like that, and it's no reason to not do something as simple as voting, but our hopes for the 0bama administration should be the same as our hopes for the Cheney-Bush administration before it: may the perpetrators have their day in court, and may the public force a change of policy.